Overestimation Of Loss Research Articles

Accuracy of self-reported gambling frequency and outcomes: Comparisons with account data.

Objectives: The ability to accurately recall past gambling behavior and outcomes is essential for making informed decisions about future gambling. We aimed to determine whether online gambling customers can accurately recall their recent gambling outcomes and betting frequency. Method: An online survey was distributed to 40,000 customers of an Australian sports and race wagering website which asked participants to recall their past 30-day net outcome (i.e., total amount won or lost) and number of bets. We compared responses to these questions with participants' actual outcomes as provided by the online site. Results: Among the 514 participants who reported their net outcome, only 21 (4.09%) were accurate within a 10% margin of their actual outcome. Participants were most likely to underestimate their losses (N = 333, 64.79%). Lower actual net losses were associated with greater underestimation and overestimation of losses. Of the 652 participants who reported their gambling frequency, 48 (7.36%) were accurate within a 10% margin of their actual frequency. Most participants underestimated their number of bets (N = 454, 69.63%). Higher actual betting frequencies were associated with underestimating betting and lower actual frequencies with overestimating betting. Conclusions: The poor recall accuracy we observed suggests public health approaches to gambling harm minimization that assume people make informed decisions about their future bets based on past outcomes and available funds should be reconsidered. Findings also question the reliability of research outcomes predicated on self-reported gambling behavior. Research is needed to determine the best methods of increasing people's awareness of their actual expenditure and outcomes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Evaluation of aquifer heterogeneity effects on river flow loss using a transition probability framework

River‐aquifer exchange is considered within a transition probability framework along the Rio Grande in Albuquerque, New Mexico, to provide a stochastic estimate of aquifer heterogeneity and river loss. Six plausible hydrofacies configurations were determined using categorized drill core and wetland survey data processed through the TPROGS geostatistical package. A base case homogeneous model was also constructed for comparison. River loss was simulated for low, moderate, and high Rio Grande stages and several different riverside drain stage configurations. Heterogeneity effects were quantified by determining the mean and variance of the K field for each realization compared to the root‐mean‐square (RMS) error of the observed groundwater head data. Simulation results showed that the heterogeneous models produced smaller estimates of loss than the homogeneous approximation. Differences between heterogeneous and homogeneous model results indicate that the use of a homogeneous K in a regional‐scale model may result in an overestimation of loss but comparable RMS error. We find that the simulated river loss is dependent on the aquifer structure and is most sensitive to the volumetric proportion of fines within the river channel.

Inundation scenarios for flood damage evaluation in polder areas

Abstract. We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution (25-m). Loss modelling at 5-m horizontal resolution shows that aggregate losses may be overestimated by some 4.3%, compared to the 25-m resolution. The generation of a large variety of inundation scenarios provides a basis for constructing loss probability curves. The calculated range and expected values of damages compare reasonably well with earlier independent estimates.

Selective Effects in Cosmic Rays Induced by Coulombian Interactions with Finite Temperature Plasmas

The role of Coulombian energy losses in cosmic ray physics is generally over simplified by using the Bethe-Block formulation which does not depend explicitly on the temperature of the medium. The role of low energy particles is usually neglected, as a result of the over estimation of losses when the temperature of the medium is ignored. A deep analysis of Coulombian losses may raise the importance of these particles in the dynamics of the Galaxy. In fact, the deceleration of these particles is determined by charge interchange processes with the target ions and electrons, which energy dependence is roughly the inverse of ionisation losses. Even high energy particles may be subject to this kind of deceleration if the temperature is very high. The consideration of Coulombian losses through all energy ranges with explicit dependence on the temperature has been discussed by Perez and Lara (1979): a fully ionized medium of hydrogen has been assumed to prevail in most of cosmic ray sources. One kind of the implications is the determination of particle composition. It is claimed that a given kind of ion is preferentially accelerated or depleted depending on whether the acceleration is higher or lower than the deceleration rate at the beginning of the acceleration of thermal material. Species which undergo depletion are accelerated only if their energy is higher than that for which both rates are equated (Ec,E′c and E′c′) in such a way that only those of the hot tails of their thermal distributions are effectively accelerated. These will appear depleted relative to other species which are free accelerated because their deceleration rates at low energies are lower than the acceleration rate. It can be noted in the next figures, that if both rates would not intersect at the beginning of the acceleration, they would not join at higher energies because the acceleration rate grows faster with energy than the deceleration rate. Three arbitrary acceleration rates are used for illustration: Fermi-2nd order (αβW), Betatron or adiabatic heating (αβ2W) and shock wave acceleration (αW), where α, β and W are the efficiency, the particles velocity and the total energy per nucleon respectively. In Fig. 1 it can be seen that this selective acceleration relative to Coulombian losses is defined at different energy levels depending on the kind of acceleration involved. Since the main effect of the temperature on the losses at the beginning of the acceleration is through the local charge states of the ions, the sequence of energy losses among different species is highly assorted. This is translated in a great amount of possibilities of particle enhancements and depletions according to the temperature of the source and the kind of acceleration operating therein. If particles under go acceleration in a fully stripped state, the sequence of losses at all energy levels is such that the heavy elements are depleted in relation with the lighter ones; same is the situation, what-ever the initial charge state, for high energy particles in the range of ionisation. It may be concluded, on basis to the observational enhancement of heavy cosmic rays, that hot regions are not likely sources, and that acceleration initiates from thermal energies. On Fig. 2 it is illustrated the enhancement of Fe over 0 in solar flare conditions, on basis to the charge states as given by Jordan (1969). If α < 2.71 s−1 both elements would be depleted, whereas if α>3.45 s−1 both would be preferentially accelerated.