Abstract
Abstract. We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution (25-m). Loss modelling at 5-m horizontal resolution shows that aggregate losses may be overestimated by some 4.3%, compared to the 25-m resolution. The generation of a large variety of inundation scenarios provides a basis for constructing loss probability curves. The calculated range and expected values of damages compare reasonably well with earlier independent estimates.
Highlights
Flat polder areas protected by dikes exist in many places around the globe, especially in low-lying river deltas
The 42 inundation scenarios consist of inundation depth maps at a horizontal resolution of 5, 25, and 100 m
The method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks
Summary
Flat polder areas protected by dikes exist in many places around the globe, especially in low-lying river deltas These areas are vulnerable in the event of dike breaches during high water levels and because of high concentrations of people and capital (Smith and Ward, 1998). Because of the low probability nature of extreme floods and the limited availability, or even complete absence, of historical loss data, simulation of loss events using catastrophe models is needed in order to arrive at a realistic range of potential damages. This is the case in the Netherlands, where flood events due to dike breaches with extensive impacts are very rare. By applying modelling approaches that use lossinundation relationships based on flood events in other regions of the world, it is possible to estimate potential flood risks for extreme flood events
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