Output Loss Research Articles

Uncertainty shocks and the great recession: Nonlinearities matter

We show that a nonlinear DSGE framework estimated on moments (impulse responses) specific to the great recession implies a peak response of the cyclical component of output to an uncertainty shock 50% larger than the one predicted by the very same model estimated on moments implied by a standard linear VAR. As an implication, the DSGE framework estimated on impulse responses generated with the nonlinear VAR assigns to the 2008Q4 uncertainty shock a contribution of about 60% as regards the output loss experienced by the US economy during and after the great recession. The same DSGE framework estimated by matching the impulse responses of the linear VAR severely underestimates such contribution.

Recovery from Economic Disasters

This study uses two large datasets to explore the output dynamics following economic disasters, one including 180 economic disasters across 38 countries over the last two centuries, and the other including 204 economic disasters in 182 countries since World War II. Our results suggest that extreme economic crises are associated with huge and remarkably persistent output loss. On average, output loss surges to above 26 percent in the first few years after the outbreak of an economic disaster and remains above 20 percent for as long as 20 years. It is only after more than 50 years that the loss is fully recovered.

Modelling the Effects of a Health Shock on the Armenian Economy

This paper extends the closed economy DSGE model in order to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus on the economy. Our model makes it clear that people,s decisions to reduce consumption and working hours due to the health crisis lead to an economic recession. As a result, the spread of the virus declines. Expansionary monetary policy decreases the size of GDP decline, but it is costly in terms of public health. This result shows that there is a trade-off between the output loss caused by the epidemic and the health consequences of the epidemic.

Testing and reopening in an SEIR model

We quantify how testing and targeted quarantine make it possible to reopen an economy in such a way that output increases while deaths are reduced. We augment a standard Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with (i) virological testing, (ii) serological testing, (iii) permanently asymptomatic individuals, (iv) incomplete information, and (v) a reduced form behavioral response of reopening to changes in health risks. Virological testing allows for targeted quarantine of asymptotic spreaders. Serological testing allows for targeted release of recovered individuals. We fit our model to U.S. data. Virological tests every two weeks accommodate more aggressive reopening that more than halves output losses while keeping deaths below forecasts under the status quo. Serological tests are much less effective. Implementing testing against a fixed budget, low sensitivity tests that are cheap and used frequently, dominate perfect tests that are expensive and used less frequently.

The Impact of Aging and Automation on the Macroeconomy and Inequality

We build a life-cycle model in which a representative firm produces a final good using routine and non-routine labor as well as traditional and automation capital (e.g. robots). Robots can substitute for routine labor. We show that both, population aging and higher robot productivity, foster the increased use of robotics. Population aging decreases and progress in robot technology increases long-run output per capita. In both cases, inequalities in labor income, wealth and consumption rise. Although expected advances in automation technologies are able to mitigate or even circumvent output losses in the aggregate and improve consumption possibilities for everyone, this comes at the cost of increased inequality because non-routine workers benefit disproportionately.

Neighbourhood-level analysis of the socio-spatial context of business crime in Northern Ireland

The repercussions of crime on businesses can be very significant. It can deter investment and frustrate business growth. Crimes result in higher costs of doing business because of the need to deploy multiple security measures. Business crime also leads to loss of output, for instance due to reduced hours of operation and depletion of morale of staff. Using a spatial segmentation analytical framework, this research study models the neighbourhood patterns of crimes perpetrated against small business in Northern Ireland. The study also accounts for the levels of non-reporting of crime victimisation among business owners together with the factors influencing the non-reporting of crime. Results show that indeed businesses within certain neighbourhood types are disproportionately exposed to crime. We also find evidence that multiple business owners have adopted crime prevention measures without considering what works in preventing business crime in the specific types of neighbourhoods within which their enterprises are located.

Government mandated lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths: implications for evaluating the stringent New Zealand response

The New Zealand policy response to Coronavirus was the most stringent in the world during the Level 4 lockdown. Up to 10 billion dollars of output (≈3.3% of GDP) was lost in moving to Level 4 rather than staying at Level 2, according to Treasury calculations. For lockdown to be optimal requires large health benefits to offset this output loss. Forecast deaths from epidemiological models are not valid counterfactuals, due to poor identification. Instead, I use empirical data, based on variation amongst United States counties, over one-fifth of which just had social distancing rather than lockdown. Political drivers of lockdown provide identification. Lockdowns do not reduce Covid-19 deaths. This pattern is visible on each date that key lockdown decisions were made in New Zealand. The apparent ineffectiveness of lockdowns suggests that New Zealand suffered large economic costs for little benefit in terms of lives saved.

ADAPTATIONS AND MITIGATION POLICIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A DYNAMIC CGE-WE MODEL

Recently, South Asian countries have committed their mitigation targets to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study examines the effectiveness of these efforts by developing a dynamic computable general equilibrium-water-energy (CGE-WE) model. Using the GTAP database version 9, it examines how different sectors respond to these policies in South Asia. Besides, it argues that an improved irrigation system can reduce the output losses caused by the mitigation policies. In a nutshell, the cost of improving irrigation system is USD 159.7 million in Bangladesh, 224 million in India, 9.1 million in Nepal, 38.5 million in Pakistan and 10.4 million in Sri Lanka. The proposed adaptation strategy can save more than USD 76.43 billion in the region after fulfilling the region’s commitment toward the global mitigation efforts.

Abstract 15299: Outpatient Intravenous Lasix Trial in Reducing Hospitalization for Acute Decompensated Heart Failure (OUTLAST)

Introduction: Hospitalization for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) remains a major source of morbidity and mortality. While previous studies have shown outpatient intravenous (IV) diuretic therapy to be safe and cost-effective, there have been no randomized controlled trials to evaluate the utilization of continued outpatient IV furosemide diuretic maintenance treatment in patients with HF following hospitalization for ADHF. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that 30-day hospital readmission from ADHF would be lower with routine, standardized outpatient IV diuretic treatment along with a comprehensive HF care approach vs standard treatment. Methods: In a single center, prospective, randomized, double-blind study, 100 patients were randomized to receive standard of care (Group 1), IV placebo infusion (Group 2), or IV furosemide infusion (Group 3) over 3 hours, biweekly for a one-month period following hospitalization for ADHF. Patients in Groups 2 and 3 also received a comprehensive HF care protocol including bi-weekly clinic visits for dose-adjusted IV-diuretics, medication adjustment, laboratory, weight, and blood pressure-monitoring, and education during infusion visits. Echocardiography, Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and depression questionnaires were performed at baseline and 30-day follow-up. The primary outcome was 30-day re-hospitalization for ADHF. Results: Overall, a total of 94 patients were included in the study (mean age 64 years, 56% males, 69% African American, 70% HF reduced ejection fraction). There were a total of 14 (15%) readmissions for ADHF at 30 days, 6 (17.1%) in Group 1, 7 (22.6%) in Group 2, and 1 (3.7%) in Group 3 (overall p=0.11; p=0.037 comparing Group 2 and Group 3). Patients receiving IV furosemide infusion experienced significantly greater urine output and weight loss compared to those receiving placebo without any significant increase creatinine and no significant between group differences in echocardiography parameters, KCCQ or depression scores. Conclusions: The use of a standardized protocol of outpatient IV furosemide infusion for a one-month period following hospitalization for ADHF was found to be safe and efficacious in reducing 30-day re-hospitalization.

Estimates of Economic Cost of Congestion Travel Time Delay Between Onne-Seaport and Eleme-Junction Traffic Corridor

Abstract Travelers along the Onne-seaport to Eleme-junction road corridor in the hub of the oil and gas industry in Port-Harcourt, Nigeria, have continued to experience very serious traffic congestion travel time delays, culminating into loss of man-hours and declining productivity. This study estimated the economic cost of traffic congestion travel time delay along the corridor, with a view to providing economic justification for developing traffic management policies and road infrastructure, to remedy it. A mixed research approach was adopted in which data was sourced through field survey and from secondary sources. The gross output model was used to estimate the output losses occasioned by productive time losses related to traffic congestion. The study established that the average daily traffic congestion travel time delay along the traffic corridor by travelers in trucks, car, bus and taxi modes are 104.17 minutes, 46.60 minutes, 58.5 minutes and 56.4 minutes respectively. The estimated daily aggregate economic cost of output losses associated with traffic congestion time delay on the corridor is 46049809.8 naira (210923.5USD) for all modes. This justifies any investment in traffic congestion remedial strategies along the route.

Impacts of physical late effects on presenteeism in childhood cancer survivors.

Many childhood cancer survivors (CCSs) experience physical late effects related to their cancer types and treatment modalities. Physical late effects are an important factor in various occupational outcomes among CCSs. However, the relationship between physical late effects and presenteeism has remained unclear. This study aimed to estimate the impacts of physical late effects on presenteeism among employed CCSs. Childhood cancer survivors replied to a questionnaire regarding presenteeism, and their attending physicians assessed their physical late effects between September 2014 and December 2015. The Work Limitations Questionnaire was used to measure presenteeism. Propensity score analysis and a generalized linear model were used to adjust covariates related to physical late effects and / or presenteeism. Of the 125 questionnaires distributed, 114 were returned. The data from 61 employed CCSs were analyzed. After controlling for covariates by propensity score analysis and generalized linear model, there were no significant differences in presenteeism between employed CCSs with either no or single physical late effects. However, employed CCSs with multiple physical late effects reported higher scores in Output (Estimate = 9.3, P = 0.041), Physical Demands (Estimate = 12.2, P = 0.020), and Productivity Loss scores (Estimate = 2.4, P = 0.045) on the Work Limitations Questionnaire than employed CCSs with no physical late effects. Employed CCSs with multiple physical late effects were at an increased risk for presenteeism. Healthcare and social welfare systems should be established to provide vocational assistance for CCSs after being employed to alleviate presenteeism.

Economic Effects of Malaria Infection on Farmers’ Income in Kogi Eastern Agricultural Zones

The study assessed the effect of malaria infection on farm households in the eastern Agricultural zones of Kogi State. Specifically, the study described the socioeconomic characteristics of the farmers, determined the relationship between farmer’s output and malaria factors and compared the output valued in naira of the infected and non-infected farmers in the area. Using proportionate and random sampling techniques, 120 infected and 120 non-infected farmers were selected for the study. Structured questionnaire was used to collect the required information. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive, Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and z-test statistics. Result from the study showed that 69.9% of the respondents were male with an average age of 40 years, married with a mean household size of 7 persons. Farmers in the area had a mean farming experience of 18 years and operated on an average farm size of 1.6 hectares. The mean output valued in naira was N53, 334 and N66, 250 for the infected and non-infected farmers, respectively. Result of the OLS analysis showed that age (β=0.176), household size (β=0.463), transport cost (β=-0.236), days of incapacitation (β=-0.455), and treatment cost (β=-0.126), showed significant relationship with the value of farmer’s output at 1%, 1%, 1%, 1% and 5% levels of risk respectively. In addition, z-test statistics indicated a significant difference (N12, 916) at 5% level of risk between the output of the infected and non-infected farmers. Hence, the study showed that malaria affected farmers and their families because of loss of man days and the expenditure that it inflicted on them which resulted in a substantial output loss in last cropping season. The study recommends establishment of hospital and clinics in many settlements to reduce the distance travelled for medication, treatment subsidy and free drugs should be made available for poor people in the society.

Episodic Vestibular Syndrome with Hyperventilation-Induced Downbeat Nystagmus.

Hyperventilation-induced downbeat nystagmus (HV-DBN) has been reported in cerebellar disorders and explained by a loss of the inhibitory cerebellar output via a metabolic effect on cerebellar Ca2+ channels. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical characteristics and underlying pathogenesis of episodic vestibular syndrome (EVS) with HV-DBN. Of 667 patients with EVS, we recruited 22 with HV-DBN and assessed their clinical characteristics, video-oculographic findings, and the results of molecular genetic analyses. The age at symptom onset was 47.5 ± 13.0years (mean ± SD), and there was a female preponderance (n = 15, 68%). The duration of vertigo/dizziness attacks ranged from minutes to a few days, and 11 patients (50%) fulfilled the diagnostic criteria for vestibular migraine. HV-induced new-onset DBN in 8 patients, while the remaining 14 showed augmentation of spontaneous DBN by HV. The maximum slow-phase velocity of HV-DBN ranged from 2.2 to 11.9°/s, which showed a statistical difference with that of spontaneous DBN (median = 4.95, IQR = 3.68-6.55 vs. median = 1.25, IQR = 0.20-2.15, p < 0.001). HV-DBN was either purely downbeat (n = 11) or accompanied with small horizontal components (n = 11). Other neuro-otologic findings included perverted head-shaking nystagmus (n = 11), central positional nystagmus (n = 7), saccadic pursuit (n = 3), and horizontal gaze-evoked nystagmus (n = 1). Gene expression profiling with a bioinformatics analysis identified 43 upregulated and 49 downregulated differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in patients with EVS and HV-DBN and revealed that the downregulated DEGs were significantly enriched in terms related to the ribosome pathway. Our results suggest that the underlying cerebellar dysfunction would be responsible for paroxysmal attacks of vertigo in patients with EVS and HV-DBN.

Dissections of input and output efficiency: A generalized stochastic frontier model

This paper considers a model that accommodates both output and input-specific inefficiency components (input slacks). We use a translog function to represent the underlying production technology in which the input slacks are generalized to have both deterministic (functions of exogenous variables) and stochastic components. Consequently, the composed error term becomes a nonlinear function of several error components, viz., a one-sided input slack vector (the dimension of which depends on the number of inputs), a one-sided output technical inefficiency and a two-sided random noise. Identification of two sets of one-sided errors is possible in a translog model because the vector of one-sided input slacks appears in additive form as well as interactively with the (log) inputs. Distributional assumptions on technical inefficiency and slacks also help in identification. Bayesian inference techniques are introduced, organized around Markov Chain Monte Carlo, especially the Gibbs sampler with data augmentation, to estimate these inefficiency components. For an empirical application we use a large unbalanced panel of the U.K. manufacturing firms. Slacks associated with labor and capital are found to be 2.35% and 10.74%, on average. Output (revenue) loss from technical inefficiency is, on average, 2.43%, while revenue loss from input slacks is, on average, 9.2%.

Real-Time Implementation of a New MPPT Control Method for a DC-DC Boost Converter Used in a PEM Fuel Cell Power System

Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells demonstrate potential as a comprehensive and general alternative to fossil fuel. They are also considered to be the energy source of the twenty-first century. However, fuel cell systems have non-linear output characteristics because of their input variations, which causes a significant loss in the overall system output. Thus, aiming to optimize their outputs, fuel cells are usually coupled with a controlled electronic actuator (DC-DC boost converter) that offers highly regulated output voltage. High-order sliding mode (HOSM) control has been effectively used for power electronic converters due to its high tracking accuracy, design simplicity, and robustness. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel maximum power point tracking (MPPT) method based on a combination of reference current estimator (RCE) and high-order prescribed convergence law (HO-PCL) for a PEM fuel cell power system. The proposed MPPT method is implemented practically on a hardware 360W FC-42/HLC evaluation kit. The obtained experimental results demonstrate the success of the proposed method in extracting the maximum power from the fuel cell with high tracking performance.

Impact of energy structure on carbon emission and economy of China in the scenario of carbon taxation

As the largest CO2 emitter in the world, China intends to achieve the peak of carbon emissions in around 2030. Unlike many other countries' targets of reducing the amount the carbon emissions, China has engaged in achieving the goal of carbon emission intensity regulation including economic development and carbon emission reduction. In recent years, carbon tax policy has been implemented by about 30 national and sub-national jurisdictions in controlling carbon emissions and has shown promising results. In this context, this research evaluates whether the carbon tax is an effective way for China to accomplish the win-win target of carbon reduction and GDP growth. Specifically, a model is established based on the energy substitution theory and input-output theory to evaluate the effectiveness of carbon tax on the eight economic sectors of China. The carbon emission reduction and economic performance before and after carbon taxation are compared. Moreover, the effects of different carbon tax rates on economic development are analyzed. The results are as follows: (1) The total amount of carbon emission decreases while the carbon tax is levied, and a positive correlation is found between the tax rate and the emission reduction amount. (2) The carbon tax has a significant impact on economic development, and a negative correlation is found between the tax rate and economic development. However, the loss of the economic output caused by the carbon tax gradually reduces over time. (3) Carbon tax policy would be effective for China to accomplish the win-win goal of carbon reduction and GDP growth. Moreover, the carbon tax rate should be set at a low level to achieve the target by the lowest economic cost. On this basis, several policy recommendations are proposed by this research.

Effect of reformed biogas as a low reactivity fuel on performance and emissions of a RCCI engine with reformed biogas/diesel dual-fuel combustion

Biogas can be used as a less expensive continuance renewable fuel in internal combustion engines. However, variety in raw materials and process of biogas production results in different components and percentages of various elements, including methane. These differences make it difficult to control the combustion, effectively, in internal combustion engines. In this research, under cleaning and reforming process, biogas components were fixed. Then the effect of reformed biogas (R.BG) was investigated, numerically, on the combustion behavior, performance and emissions characteristics of a RCCI engine. A 3D-computational modeling has been performed to validate a single-cylinder compression ignition engine in conventional diesel and dual-fuel operations at 9 bar IMEP, 1300 rpm. Then, the combustion model of the RCCI engine was simulated by replacing diesel fuel with 20%, 40% and 60% of R.BG as a low reactivity fuel while remaining constant input total fuel energy per cycle. The results demonstrated that when the R.BG substitution ratio increases with a constant equivalence ratio of 0.43, the mean combustion temperature decreases to 1354 K, 1312 K, 1292 K which are about 3.5%, 6.6%, 7.9% lower than the conventional diesel combustion, respectively. The maximum in-cylinder pressure increases up to 22.63%. Instead, it results in 2.3%, 7.9%, and 14.5% engine power output losses, respectively. Also, the NOx emission, against CO, is decreased by 50%. Soot and UHC emissions were found to be slightly decreased while was used R.BG more than 40%.

Potential output gap in China's regional coal-fired power sector under the constraint of carbon emission reduction

Under the constraint of carbon emission reduction, this paper investigates the potential output gap in China’s regional coal-fired power sector using data envelopment analysis. For a clearer insight, the total potential output gap (TOG) is further decomposed into technical efficiency gap (TEG), environmental regulation gap (ERG) and equipment utilization gap (EUG). Furthermore, Tobit regression is used to explore the factors influencing these output gaps. The results show that: (1) TOG generally has an upward trend from 2002 to 2014. It is the highest in Northeast area, followed by Central area, while Qinghai has not suffered from any output losses. (2) EUG is the main cause of the huge potential output gaps. Although ERG is relatively small, it has been rising rapidly since 2002. (3) Renewable power expansion and economy scale impose certain crowding-out effect on the actual output, electricity price is helpful to reducing EUG and ERG, and a higher coal proportion reduces TEG but increases EUG. These findings clearly outline the regional potential coal power supply capability under various constraints, and corresponding policy implications in both temporal and spatial dimensions are expected to be instructive on the clean and efficient development of China’s coal-fired power sector.

Novel aluminium/polyvinylidene fluoride metastable intermolecular composite film prepared by solution casting method

One challenge in the application of traditional metastable intermolecular composite (MIC) material is that MIC particles are not compatible with micro-electro-mechanical system. In the authors’ work, a solution casting method was employed to prepare aluminium/polyvinylidene fluoride (Al/PVDF) MIC films. The morphological, structural and compositional information of the samples were characterised by scanning electron microscopy, X-ray diffraction, energy dispersive spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. The energy-release characteristics of Al/PVDF films were studied by thermogravimetric analysis and differential scanning calorimetry. The results show that heat output and mass loss increased as the thickness of MIC films reduced. The maximum heat release of the main exothermic peak was 1032 J/g. The kinetics process could be divided into three stages with apparent activation energy calculated by Kissinger and Starink methods of 128.86, 164.69 and 153.16 kJ/mol, respectively.

Fault-Tolerant Control of Multirotor UAVs by Control Variable Elimination

This article presents to develop a fault-tolerant control (FTC) to cope with defective thrust systems in multirotor unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). Faults can occur for a number of reasons in flight, including defective motor performance and damaged propellers. The faults deform both the thrust and torque outputs that could result in the UAV crashing and causing secondary accidents. The FTC method in the article is developed to reconfigure thrust systems using the optimal control when significant degrees of failure occur in a number of defective motors. Orientation control could be abandoned to maintain the controllability of altitude when the control output loss cannot be compensated for because of motor saturation. Specifically, yaw motion control is sacrificed, resulting in a rapid rotation and divergence of position control. The divergence can be resolved by a feed forward control loop on the roll and pitch angles. Both simulations and experiments are implemented to demonstrate the performance of the FTC. The results indicate that the proposed FTC can be implemented to minimize accidents from failures of main thrust systems.