Given a sphere with Bartnik data close to that of a round sphere in Euclidean 3-space, we compute its Bartnik-Bray outer mass to first order in the data's deviation from the standard sphere. The Hawking mass gives a well-known lower bound, and an upper bound is obtained by estimating the mass of a static vacuum extension. As an application we confirm that in a time-symmetric slice concentric geodesic balls shrinking to a point have mass-to-volume ratio converging to the energy density at their center, in accord with physical expectation and the behavior of other quasilocal masses. For balls shrinking to a flat point we can also compute the outer mass to fifth order in the radius---the term is proportional to the Laplacian of the scalar curvature at the center---but our estimate is not refined enough to identify this term at a point which is merely scalar flat. In particular it cannot discern gravitational contributions to the mass.
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