Policy Outcomes Research Articles

Conflict or coordination? An analysis of the Southern New England offshore wind - fisheries policy network

Offshore wind represents a growing part of coastal states’ energy portfolios. While it stands on the brink of rapid expansion in the United States, reaction from ocean users is mixed, with commercial fishers representing the most vocal opposition. Recent events suggest that fisheries conflict may represent a barrier to advancing the growth of U.S. offshore wind, yet little is known about the inner workings of this conflict nor how actors interact to try to influence policy outcomes. This research utilized policy networks and the advocacy coalition framework to assess the ways in which fishers, fisheries advocates, and others interacted with each other, government agencies, and wind developers within the context of offshore wind farm decision-making in southern New England, U.S. Data collected through a questionnaire were used to perform a social network analysis. Findings revealed one baseline communication network, and a similarly configured coordination network, rather than multiple advocacy coalitions. Degree and betweenness centrality measures revealed highly influential roles of one fisheries advocacy organization and two wind developers. Information/advice and trust networks were also analyzed; in-degree centrality measures revealed the influence of two federal fisheries offices, as well as the same fisheries organization, as credible and trustworthy. Overall, results reveal that while coordination was taking place, conflict was also fueled through the dominant influence of private industries and the lack of prominence of a neutral bridging organization. Recommendations for practice include integrating a bridging organization and facilitating a more influential role of respected government agencies to mitigate conflict.

Should Fairness be a Metric or a Model? A Model-based Framework for Assessing Bias in Machine Learning Pipelines

Fairness measurement is crucial for assessing algorithmic bias in various types of machine learning (ML) models, including ones used for search relevance, recommendation, personalization, talent analytics, and natural language processing. However, the fairness measurement paradigm is currently dominated by fairness metrics that examine disparities in allocation and/or prediction error as univariate key performance indicators (KPIs) for a protected attribute or group. Although important and effective in assessing ML bias in certain contexts such as recidivism, existing metrics don’t work well in many real-world applications of ML characterized by imperfect models applied to an array of instances encompassing a multivariate mixture of protected attributes, that are part of a broader process pipeline. Consequently, the upstream representational harm quantified by existing metrics based on how the model represents protected groups doesn’t necessarily relate to allocational harm in the application of such models in downstream policy/decision contexts. We propose FAIR-Frame, a model-based framework for parsimoniously modeling fairness across multiple protected attributes in regard to the representational and allocational harm associated with the upstream design/development and downstream usage of ML models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed framework on two testbeds pertaining to text classification using pretrained language models. The upstream testbeds encompass over fifty thousand documents associated with twenty-eight thousand users, seven protected attributes and five different classification tasks. The downstream testbeds span three policy outcomes and over 5.41 million total observations. Results in comparison with several existing metrics show that the upstream representational harm measures produced by FAIR-Frame and other metrics are significantly different from one another, and that FAIR-Frame’s representational fairness measures have the highest percentage alignment and lowest error with allocational harm observed in downstream applications. Our findings have important implications for various ML contexts, including information retrieval, user modeling, digital platforms, and text classification, where responsible and trustworthy AI is becoming an imperative.

THE DYNAMICS OF POLICY CHANGE AND AGILE GOVERNANCE: HOW INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT RESPONSE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Indonesia and other countries must deal with the COVID-19 pandemic with limited information control amid uncertainty. Handling a pandemic that has become a crisis places great demands on the government to provide agile and dynamic policies. Variations of policies that the Indonesian government has issued raise doubts in the public sphere. The government changed several policies quickly and easily, giving the impression that they did not go through a thorough formulating process. It shows that the handling of COVID-19 requires a policy system that is quite complex due to the many interactions of various sectors. By using qualitative methods, this study attempts to discuss the dynamics of changing public policies by using the concept of incremental policy amid demands for agile governance implementation by looking at the cases of policies issued by the Indonesian government in response to COVID-19. The dynamic of the policy network will be explored further to dismantle the discussion of policies for handling COVID-19 in Indonesia. Therefore, the results of this research show the challenges in implementing agile principles simply by changing and adapting policies to empirical conditions. In its application, agile governance shows several dominant actors who gather resources and support, shape policy outcomes, and advance their interests.

Has green finance policy promoted ecologically sustainable development under the constraints of government environmental attention?

This study aimed to reveal how China's green finance reform and innovation demonstration zone policy affects ecologically sustainable development under the constraints of government environmental attention. Employing multi-period DID (Difference-in-Difference) and DDD (Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference) as the base model, the study tested the mechanism of the policy's effect on ecologically sustainable development, using panel data from 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020. Endogeneity tests including Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS), counterfactual tests, and other robustness checks, were employed to enhance the study's validity. The research findings are as follows: (1) The policy effectively promotes ecologically sustainable development, and this conclusion remained valid even after conducting several robustness tests. (2) The more pronounced the government's emphasis on environmental preservation, the greater its efficacy in fostering ecologically sustainable development. (3) The stimulating effect of the policy on ecologically sustainable development is more pronounced in cities with higher ecological quality and a larger population. This study not only offers new analytical perspectives for comprehensively investigating the green finance policy but also emphasizes that enhanced policy outcomes hinge on the implementation of green financial reforms and innovations tailored to local conditions. Additionally, it provides valuable policy insights for optimizing the government's role in fostering ecologically sustainable development. (e.g., optimizing the governmental role in fostering ecologically sustainable development, enhancing both the scope and intensity of green finance policy, and harnessing the synergies between green finance policy and environmental protection policy).

Labor mobility and semi-presidentialism

Political scientists frequently argue that presidential and parliamentary democracies produce different policy outcomes but fail to fully consider semi-presidential democracies. To demonstrate the importance of considering semi-presidentialism, I reanalyze an existing argument that presidential democracies have more labor mobility than parliamentary democracies because presidential democracies empower special interests who support immigration. I replicate previous analyses and find little evidence that the type of democracy affects labor mobility. Political scientists need to consider semi-presidentialism or risk erroneous inferences. Further, theories of institutions and immigration policy, and institutional theories more generally, should focus on more specific institutions rather than rely on the blunt distinctions between types of democracies.

Policy on healthy practices to improve the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age

In the jungle region of Peru, child malnutrition rates are still high, which is reflected in the lack of comprehensive policies that promote healthy feeding practices for children under 5 years of age. Therefore, there is little implementation of regional strategies to address nutritional problems in the child population. The objective was to evaluate the reality of a policy based on healthy practices to improve the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in the region. The type of research was basic, the design was based on a systematic review based on previous studies, evaluations and data collected in the San Martín region. The population and sample were mothers of children under 5 years of age residing in the San Martín region, whose nutritional and feeding data were collected in studies and official records. A systematic review methodology was used to analyze the effectiveness of the regional policy on healthy practices. The instruments included databases, health records and evaluations of implemented programs. This review article examines the strategies, programs and outcomes of regional policy in order to evaluate their effectiveness in addressing malnutrition and improving the quality of life of children in this geographic area. Results, the healthy practices policy demonstrated a significant improvement in the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in the San Martín region. A reduction in malnutrition rates and an increase in the adoption of healthier eating habits was observed. In conclusion, based on the articles reviewed, the implementation of a policy focused on healthy practices is successful in improving the nutritional status of children under 5 years of age in the San Martín region. Additionally, the importance of continuing to promote evidence-based interventions to address childhood malnutrition and promote appropriate eating habits from an early age is highlighted.

Unleashing digital empowerment: Pioneering low-carbon development through the broadband China strategy

Low-carbon development has emerged as an imperative in the pursuit of carbon peak and neutrality. To this end, the intersection of digital empowerment and the quest for innovative solutions in developing countries has taken center stage, particularly in exploring the network infrastructure construction potential. This research delves into the intricate relationship between network infrastructure construction expansion and low-carbon development in developing countries, drawing insights from a comprehensive analysis of panel data collected from 282 Chinese cities. Leveraging the quasi-natural experiment presented by “Broadband China” and employing a rigorous multi-period difference-in-difference (DID) model, our study uncovers significant findings. First, it reveals that the expansion of the network infrastructure construction directly amplifies the prospects of low-carbon development, a result consistently upheld through meticulous assessments of the multi-period DID approach and validation through the robust synthetic control DID method. Second, the study elucidates how network infrastructure construction expansion fosters low-carbon development by optimizing industrial structure and promoting investments in cutting-edge technologies. Third, it unveils the impact of network infrastructure construction expansion on the efficiency of low-carbon technology, concurrently encouraging its enhancement while imposing specific inhibitory effects. Remarkably, the policy outcomes exhibit variations among cities of differing sizes and between cities with old and non-old industrial bases. Finally, the research underscores the spatially endogenous interaction effects within low-carbon development. In sum, this study not only enriches comprehension of innovative avenues for low-carbon development within the sphere of digital empowerment but also provides empirical evidence to refine policy recommendations specifically tailored to the unique context of developing countries.

Street-level Bureaucrats and Implementation of Non-cash Food Assistance Programs: Case Study of Indonesia

Street-level Bureaucrats are bureaucrats who are at the forefront of implementing programs or policies. Their duties and functions are diverse, and based on their duties, they are expected to improve the welfare of community by implementing policies and assisting the public in services. They play an important role in policy implementation and have a strong influence on policy outcomes. This study aims to determine the value orientation of street-level bureaucrats and their attitudes toward beneficiaries in the implementation of the Non-cash Food Assistance Program. The research method uses a Mix Methods research design with a dominant scheme in a qualitative approach. The research focus areas are: (a) value orientation of street-level bureaucrats and (b) attitude of street-level bureaucrats toward beneficiaries. The total population of the study was 1916 and after calculations using a certain formula, a research sample of 95 individuals was obtained. Based on the results of the study, it is known that the value orientation of street-level bureaucrats stands out for social or cooperative orientation, while their attitude toward beneficiaries is positive so that in carrying out their duties they do not do much discretionary action. The research recommendation is that officers must always update beneficiary data and carry out external supervision in distributing aid. In addition to using mixed methods, it is also expected to conduct research using a quantitative approach to understand the effect of value orientation and attitudes on the effectiveness of program implementation.
 Keywords: street-level bureaucrats, discretion, value orientation, attitude

Analysis of Unemployment Policy Program in Bonebolango District

This study aims to analyze the unemployment policy program by the Regional Government of Bone Bolango Regency. The research method used is a descriptive qualitative approach. Data collection techniques include in-depth interviews and focus group discussions (FGDs) with experts and practitioners. The results illustrate that unemployment policy programs implemented by the local government of Bone Bolango Regency, including the WUB (New Entrepreneur), TKM (Millennial Workforce), and KUP (Productive Business Group) programs, have not been fully implemented optimally. In the process of implementing the unemployment policy program by the local government of Bone Bolango Regency, several stages of policy program implementation have not been optimally carried out including the relevance of the policy program, consideration of policy formulation, policy implementation, and policy outputs and outcomes.
 Keywords: policy program, unemployment

Locally Led Opportunities for Water, Sanitation and Hygiene, Climate Change and Gender Equality Partnerships in the Blue Pacific

Partnerships between water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) and rights-holder organisations (RHOs) have become more common, important and impactful in the international development sector, and they have been driven by aligned agendas, mutual benefits and the pursuit of locally owned and inclusive development agendas. There are opportunities to broaden partnerships and coalitions to include climate change advocacy, adaptation and mitigation organisations given the increased focus on the links between WASH, resilience and climate change action. This article takes a first step in addressing the question: How can the experience of WASH, gender equality and climate organisation partnerships and coalitions in the Blue Pacific inform the WASH sector in its growing support of and investment in diverse partnerships in support of localism? We conducted a systematic scoping review to identify the literature on gender equality, WASH and climate change-related partnerships and coalitions in the Blue Pacific. Three key themes emerged from the systematic scoping review based on 23 studies published from 1996 to 2024. Firstly, partnerships and coalitions are part of a critical localism agenda, though care needs to be taken by potential partners and donors to understand and manage power dynamics between actors and organisations working within and across sectors. Secondly, a range of benefits and success factors have been documented on partnerships and coalitions in the Blue Pacific, including support for emerging leadership, leveraging policy outcomes, facilitating learning and the sharing of frameworks and tools between partners. Thirdly, like all parts of the community and governance ecosystem, gender dynamics and social norms inform and influence partnerships and coalitions. At the same time, partnerships are important for informing and driving gender equality and inclusion at the local and regional levels including within the WASH sector. This article is useful for local actors, donors and civil society organisations wishing to pursue the mutually beneficial goals of WASH, gender equality, climate change action and localisation in the Blue Pacific.

Does China's carbon inclusion policy promote household carbon emissions reduction? Theoretical mechanisms and empirical evidence

China's carbon inclusion policy (CIP) is an innovative voluntary emission reduction mechanism that aims to drive consumption-side emission reductions and achieve dual carbon goals. However, the effectiveness of the policy has not yet been assessed. To fill this research gap, this study evaluated the impact of CIP on urban household carbon emissions based on panel data from 283 cities in China from 2006 to 2020. This was conducted using staggered difference-in-differences (DID), synthetic DID, and spatial DID methods. The results showed that the CIP significantly reduced household carbon emissions through the green consumption awareness enhancing effect and green supply capacity improving effect. Heterogeneity tests indicated that carbon reduction effects are stronger in electricity and gas consumption and relatively modest in the heating and transportation domains. Cities with higher financial technology levels and greater government intervention had better policy outcomes. CIP also exhibited spatial spillover effects on household carbon emissions and synergistically reduced air pollution. Despite incurring certain economic costs, it ultimately promoted regional economic growth. This study can provide theoretical and empirical evidence for China to promote CIP and achieve its dual carbon goals.

Pandora's ballot box: Electoral politics of direct democracy

AbstractWe study how office‐seeking parties use direct democracy to shape elections. A party with a strong electoral base can benefit from using a binding referendum to resolve issues that divide its core supporters. When referendums do not bind, however, an electorally disadvantaged party may initiate a referendum to elevate new issues. It does so with the goal of dividing its stronger opponent's supporters. We identify conditions under which direct democracy improves congruence between policy outcomes and voter preferences, but also show that it can lead to greater misalignment both on issues subject to direct democracy and those that are not.

The Effect of the 2020 Black Lives Matter Protests on Police Budgets: How “Defund the Police” Sparked Political Backlash

Abstract This article investigates whether a core political demand of the 2020 Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests was realized: “defund the police.” Original hand-compiled data containing budget information on 264 major cities in the United States and comprehensive protest data enable us to assess the effect of protests on changes in city police budgets. We find no evidence that BLM protests led to police defunding. In cities with large Republican vote shares, protest is associated with significant increases in police budgets. We demonstrate that electoral incentives cannot explain this policy backlash. Instead, we provide tentative evidence that backlash in Republican cities might stem from policymakers’ own conservatism and entrenched right-wing influences within city politics. The analysis offers novel evidence on the consequences of the largest protest movement in U.S. history and reveals the importance of backlash in explaining policy outcomes of social movements.

Perceived burdens of interacting with public authorities: How does it influence citizens' state‐encounter behavior?

AbstractMuch research has shown that implementation behavior of frontline workers and the outcomes of public policies depend on encounters between frontline workers and citizens. However, relatively little is known about the agency of citizens in these encounters. This paper focuses on administrative burdens and psychological responses to stress as possible determinants of citizens' encounter behavior—defined as “behavioral efforts citizens employ during and in preparing for interaction with public authorities in order to master the demands of the public encounter.” Combining a framework categorizing citizens' state‐encounter behavior and theory about administrative burdens, we ask whether citizens' behavior reflects their perceptions of administrative burdens, and whether learning, psychological and compliance burdens prompt different encounter behaviors? We use data from surveys among a representative sample of 1460 Danish citizens regarding encounters with tax and home care authorities. We find that perceived administrative burdens affect citizens' behavior, but contrary to expectations, we do not find that burdens discourage citizens from engaging with authorities. Higher perceived burdens tend to prompt activist behavior. Moreover, different types of burdens affect behaviors differently.

Catching Fire: How National Humiliation Spreads Hostile Foreign Policy Preferences on Chinese Social Media

Abstract Research shows that emotions alter preferences, which are central to many models of political choice. However, how can theories that explain individual-level preference change explain policy outcomes, which usually take place at higher levels of analysis? I outline three competing approaches to this question, ultimately building on the third approach, which argues that emotions can spread through emotional contagion within identity groups. This implies emotions can broadly shift preferences towards or away from conflict during crises. It also explains how identities, which are relatively constant over the medium term, can suddenly become fault lines in a conflict. I find supporting evidence using a large (more than 1.6 billion posts) nationally representative data set of Chinese social media posts. Users’ national humiliation posts lead their followers to become more likely to make posts about national humiliation, suggesting contagion, and about using military force and maintaining territorial disputes, suggesting preference change.

Spa(tia) – a diffusion-oriented method of territorial impact assessment

ABSTRACT In this paper we consider the options for policymakers in performing territorial impact assessment (TIA) of various policies. Hybrid methods combining stakeholder involvement with systematic statistical analysis are a good compromise between the analytical capabilities of the tool and the required time and resources needed to use it. However, the existing hybrid methods focus on the direct effects of the intervention, while neglecting the territorial diffusion of the policy outcomes. To address this gap, we propose a new method, which uses a spatial proximity matrix to incorporate diffusion effects into TIA. We discuss an example application of the new method for the ex-ante evaluation of the ‘European Funds for Western Pomerania’ programme.

Securitizing high-technology industries: South Korea–Japan dispute over materials–parts–equipment products

Abstract The Japan–Korea whitelist dispute (2019–2023) embodies key features of interstate disputes related to economic statecraft ideas. Against the backdrop of the legal dispute over Japan’s “essential security interests” claim based on GATT Article 21 (Security Exceptions), this study analyzes South Korea’s response to the whitelist dispute, with a focus on its materials–parts–equipment localization policy. The findings indicate that the policy process and outcomes align with very few of the criteria suggested by the new industrial policy literature. Notably, the policy’s goals and tools were driven by ideology rather than by science, and the implementing agency—The Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy—while competent, was politically captured. In conclusion, this study suggests that policymakers should purposefully and consciously connect security with trade or implement industrial policies within a well-defined strategic framework.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Litigation in Organ Transplantation for Allegations of Insufficient Policy Coverage, Discrimination and Malpractice.

Introduction: Transplantation is a field with unique medical and administrative challenges that involve an equally diverse array of stakeholders. Expectantly, the litigation stemming from this field should be similarly nuanced. There is a paucity of comprehensive reviews characterizing this medicolegal landscape. Design: The Caselaw Access Project Database was used to collect official court briefs of 2053 lawsuits related to kidney, liver, heart, lung, and pancreas transplantation. A thematic analysis was undertaken to characterize grounds for litigation, defendant type, and outcomes. Cases were grouped into policy, discrimination, poor or unsuccessful outcome, or other categories. Results: One hundred sixty-four court cases were included for analysis. Cases involving disputes over policy coverage were the most common across all organ types (N = 55, 33.5%). This was followed by poor outcomes (N = 51, 31.1%), allegations of discrimination against prison systems and employers (N = 37, 22.6%) and other (N = 21, 12.8%). Defendants involved in discrimination trials won with the greatest frequency (N = 29, 90.62%). Defendants implicated in policy suits won 65.3% (N = 32), poor outcomes 62.2% (N = 28), and other 70% (N = 14). Of the 51 cases involving poor outcomes, plaintiffs indicated lack of informed consent in 23 (45.1%). Conclusion: Reconsidering the informed consent process may be a viable means of mitigating future legal action. Most discrimination suits favoring defendants suggested previous concerns of structural injustices in transplantation may not be founded. The prevalence of policy-related cases could be an indication of financial burden on patients. Future work and advocacy will need to substantiate these concerns and address change where legal recourse falls short.

Economic, Social, and Political Elites in MENA Political Science

Recent Western literature concerning the political determinants of economic and social outcomes has primarily concentrated on regime types and the effectiveness of state institutions. While this literature has been influential among scholars of and in the Middle East and North Africa, there has also been an emphasis in the region on the interests and networks of economic and political elites—the interactions between rulers, elites, and the broader citizenry—to explain divergent policy outcomes. This is largely due to the inability of dominant mainstream institutional and structural theories to explain much of what has been observed in the region, viewing it as exceptional in its authoritarianism and resistance to global trends. In fact, the seeds for a more sophisticated understanding can be found in the literature on the Arab world that emphasizes relational dynamics between political and economic actors. Synthesizing the insights of scholars of the region has the potential to contribute more broadly to global debates on how political factors and conditions within states shape the quality of life experienced by their residents. Such a shift to viewing regimes as networks provides a useful framework for bridging the broader trends in political science with the work emanating from scholarship on the Middle East and North Africa.

Monthly unconditional income supplements starting at birth: Experiences among mothers of young children with low incomes in the U.S.

Recently, U.S. advocates and funders have supported direct cash transfers for individuals and families as an efficient, immediate, and non-paternalistic path to poverty alleviation. Open questions remain, however, about their implementation. We address these using data from debit card transactions, customer service call-line logs, and in-depth interviews from a randomized control study of a monthly unconditional cash gift delivered via debit card to mothers of young children living near the federal poverty line. Because much of the impact of the intervention occurs through mothers' decisions about how to allocate the Baby's First Years (BFY) money, we argue that implementation science must recognize the role of policy targets in implementing policy, not just in terms of policy outcomes but also policy implementation processes. Further, our analysis shows that mothers experience key aspects of the cash intervention's design as intended: they viewed the cash gift as unconditional and knew the money was reliable and would continue monthly, receiving the correct amount with few incidents. Delivering funds via debit card worked well, offering mothers flexibility in purchasing. We also illuminate how design features shaped mothers' experiences. First, although they knew it was unconditional, the social meaning of the BFY money to mothers-seen as "the baby's money"-shaped their engagement with and allocation of it. Second, low public visibility of mothers' receipt of this money limited the financial demands or requests from others, potentially facilitating more agency over and a greater ability to use the money as they chose, without claims from kin.