Outcome Bias Research Articles

Positive Outcome Bias in the Influential Otolaryngology Clinical Trial Literature.

To assess for the presence of positive outcome bias in the otolaryngology clinical trial literature. Specifically, we investigate the prevalence of clinical trials with positive findings (CTP) and clinical trials with negative findings (CTN), as well as their quality of evidence and subsequent impact. Retrospective analysis. Clinical Trials in the Influential Otolaryngology Literature. We reviewed all clinical trials published in 4 major otolaryngology journals between 2000 and 2020. We constructed several multivariable regression models to investigate the relationship of finding direction with randomization status and citation count. Subsequently, we incorporated an interaction term between year and the primary covariate of each model to assess the temporal trajectory of these relationships. All models accounted for sample size, journal, subspecialty, and the affiliated program prestige. Of the 1367 trials analyzed, 1143 (84%) were CTPs, a rate that persisted throughout the study period (aOR 1.00, 95% CI 0.98-1.03). CTPs were significantly less likely to be randomized compared to CTNs (aOR 0.25, 0.17-0.37), a relationship that persisted over time (aOR 1.05, 0.99-1.03). CTPs received significantly more citations compared to CTNs (aIRR 1.41, 1.25-1.60), a disparity that also persisted over time (aIRR 0.99, 0.97-1.01). The otolaryngology clinical trial literature has been heavily dominated by positive findings. CTPs were more frequently cited and published even with a lower level of evidence compared to CTNs. This bias may influence the objectivity of evidence used to guide clinical practice and warrants attention when reviewing findings and changing practices.

Score! What is it Good for? Why Football Managers Need to Look Beyond Results

Outcome bias is a pervasive phenomenon in decision-making, referring to the tendency to evaluate decisions made under identical circumstances as more favourable when it results in the desired outcome. This paper analyses this cognitive bias in the context of top-flight European football, examining whether a Bayesian updating model distorted by a multiplicative outcome bias is valid. Managers make significantly more changes to their strategy following a loss than a win, even having controlled for expected performance, in-game performance, and team and game-specific variation. The results of this paper are consistent with a positive-outcome bias, but not necessarily a multiplicative bias.

Reflecting Parameter Uncertainty in Addition to Variability in Constrained Healthcare Resource Discrete Event Simulations: Worth Going the Extra Mile or a Road to Nowhere?

ObjectivesProbabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) has been shown to reduce bias in outcomes of health economic models. However, only 1 existing study has been identified that incorporates PSA within a resource-constrained discrete event simulation (DES) model. This article aims to assess whether it is feasible and appropriate to use PSA to characterize parameter uncertainty in DES models that are primarily constructed to explore the impact of constrained resources. MethodsPSA is incorporated into a new case study of an Emergency Department DES. Structured expert elicitation is used to derive the variability and uncertainty input distributions associated with length of time taken to complete key activities within the Emergency Department. Potential challenges of implementation and analysis are explored. ResultsThe results of a trial of the model, which used the best estimates of the elicited means and variability around the time taken to complete activities, provided a reasonable fit to the data for length of time within the Emergency Department. However, there was substantial and skewed uncertainty around the activity times estimated from the elicitation exercise. This led to patients taking almost 3 weeks to leave the Emergency Department in some PSA runs, which would not occur in practice. ConclusionsStructured expert elicitation can be used to derive plausible estimates of activity times and their variability, but experts’ uncertainty can be substantial. For parameters that have an impact on interactions within a resource-constrained simulation model, PSA can lead to implausible model outputs; hence, other methods may be needed.

Biases in legal decision‐making: Comparing prosecutors, defense attorneys, law students, and laypersons

AbstractPrevious studies of judgment and decision‐making in adjudication have largely focused on juries and judges. This body of work demonstrated that legal training and professional experience sometimes affect attitudes and mitigate the susceptibility to cognitive biases, but often they do not. Relatively few experimental studies examined the decisions of prosecutors and defense lawyers, although they play a major role, especially in legal systems where prosecutors have a broad discretion in charging decisions, courts' discretion regarding sentencing is constrained, and plea bargains abound. This study directly compares laypersons, law students, and legal practitioners—including prosecutors and defense lawyers—in terms of their attitudes about the criminal justice system and their cognitive biases. It was found that the outcome bias and the anti‐inference bias influenced all groups similarly, but an irrelevant anchor only impacted the decisions of laypersons and law students, and not those of legal professionals. Prosecutors were significantly more inclined to judge a behavior as negligent and reach factual conclusions supporting a conviction. However, the hypothesis that the susceptibility of prosecutors and defense lawyers to cognitive biases would be affected by their role was not borne out. The article considers possible explanations for the reported findings, and discusses their policy implications.

Sex as a biological variable in acute kidney injury.

The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the preclinical and clinical studies investigating sex as a biological variable, as well as the impact of gender, on the development of and progression of acute kidney injury (AKI). Despite a matched degree of ischemia-reperfusion AKI based on measured glomerular filtration rates, male and female mice demonstrated important sex biases in cardiorenal outcomes (1). Although the 2012 Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) Clinical Practice Guideline for AKI reported that female sex is associated with increased rates of hospital acquired AKI, subsequent meta-analyses do not show increased risk of AKI in women. Recent large scale, multicenter epidemiologic studies suggest males have higher rates of hospital acquired AKI. However, women have been consistently shown to have worse renal outcomes after AKI. There may be also be gender-based differences in presentation to care and management. Sex is an important biological variable in animal models of acute kidney injury. The impact of sex on AKI likely varies based on the etiology of AKI. Preclinical studies demonstrate the nuances of sex chromosomes, sex hormones and epigenetic factors on AKI, however these have not been well studied in humans. Gender may also impact processes of care, treatment and clinical outcomes related to AKI. The scientific rigor and reproducibility of translational studies benefit from the consideration of sex and gender.

Higher versus lower fractions of inspired oxygen or targets of arterial oxygenation for adults admitted to the intensive care unit.

Higher versus lower fractions of inspired oxygen or targets of arterial oxygenation for adults admitted to the intensive care unit.

Delegated risk-taking, accountability, and outcome bias

In a sequence of experiments, this study investigates how people evaluate others who make risky decisions on their behalf, and how such evaluations affect delegated risk-taking. A decision maker acts on behalf of a client who holds the decision maker accountable by way of a subjective evaluation after observing a risky decision’s outcome. If evaluation is biased towards the outcome, it may have dysfunctional effects with respect to delegated risk-taking in that decision makers’ risk choices are increasingly misaligned with their clients’ risk preferences. We find evidence giving support to this conjecture. Across and within three experiments, we test for the effects of different types and degrees of accountability in that we manipulate the information available to clients as well as the consequences which evaluations have for decision makers. Evaluations are biased towards outcomes in all experiments. When evaluations affect decision maker’s compensations, a stronger outcome bias in evaluations translates into risk-taking decisions being less frequently aligned with clients’ risk preferences. In the same situation, giving clients the opportunity to make peer comparisons increases outcome bias. We further find that clients do not hold decision makers accountable for their risk choices when they cannot observe the risk-taking decision, but have to infer it from observing the outcome. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.

Differences in decisions affected by cognitive biases: examining human values, need for cognition, and numeracy

A better understanding of factors that can affect preferences and choices may contribute to more accurate decision-making. Several studies have investigated the effects of cognitive biases on decision-making and their relationship with cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions. While studies on behaviour, attitude, personality, and health worries have examined their relationship with human values, research on cognitive bias has not investigated its relationship to individual differences in human values. The purpose of this study was to explore individual differences in biased choices, examining the relationships of the human values self-direction, conformity, power, and universalism with the anchoring effect, the framing effect, the certainty effect, and the outcome bias, as well as the mediation of need for cognition and the moderation of numeracy in these relationships. We measured individual differences and within-participant effects with an online questionnaire completed by 409 Brazilian participants, with an age range from 18 to 80 years, 56.7% female, and 43.3% male. The cognitive biases studied consistently influenced choices and preferences. However, the biases showed distinct relationships with the individual differences investigated, indicating the involvement of diverse psychological mechanisms. For example, people who value more self-direction were less affected only by anchoring. Hence, people more susceptible to one bias were not similarly susceptible to another. This can help in research on how to weaken or strengthen cognitive biases and heuristics.

Cheese consumption and multiple health outcomes: an umbrella review and updated meta-analysis of prospective studies.

This umbrella review aims to provide a systematic and comprehensive overview of current evidence from prospective studies on the diverse health effects of cheese consumption. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library to identify meta-analyses/pooled analyses of prospective studies examining the association between cheese consumption and major health outcomes from inception to August 31, 2022. We reanalyzed and updated previous meta-analyses and performed de novo meta-analyses with recently published prospective studies, where appropriate. We calculated the summary effect size, 95% prediction confidence intervals, between-study heterogeneity, small-study effects, and excess significance bias for each health outcome. We identified 54 eligible articles of meta-analyses/pooled analyses. After adding newly published original articles, we performed 35 updated meta-analyses and 4 de novo meta-analyses. Together with 8 previous meta-analyses, we finally included 47 unique health outcomes. Cheese consumption was inversely associated with all-cause mortality (highest compared with lowest category: RR = 0.95; 95% CI: 0.92, 0.99), cardiovascular mortality (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.99), incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) (RR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.96), coronary heart disease (CHD) (RR = 0.92; 95% CI: 0.86, 0.98), stroke (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.89, 0.98), estrogen receptor-negative (ER-) breast cancer (RR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.97), type 2 diabetes (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88, 0.98), total fracture (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.86, 0.95), and dementia (RR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.99). Null associations were found for other outcomes. According to the NutriGrade scoring system, moderate quality of evidence was observed for inverse associations of cheese consumption with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, incident CVD, CHD, and stroke, and for null associations with cancer mortality, incident hypertension, and prostate cancer. Our findings suggest that cheese consumption has neutral to moderate benefits for human health.

Problem-solving interventions and depression among adolescents and young adults: A systematic review of the effectiveness of problem-solving interventions in preventing or treating depression.

Problem-solving (PS) has been identified as a therapeutic technique found in multiple evidence-based treatments for depression. To further understand for whom and how this intervention works, we undertook a systematic review of the evidence for PS's effectiveness in preventing and treating depression among adolescents and young adults. We searched electronic databases (PsycINFO, Medline, and Cochrane Library) for studies published between 2000 and 2022. Studies meeting the following criteria were included: (a) the intervention was described by authors as a PS intervention or including PS; (b) the intervention was used to treat or prevent depression; (c) mean or median age between 13-25 years; (d) at least one depression outcome was reported. Risk of bias of included studies was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias 2.0 tool. A narrative synthesis was undertaken given the high level of heterogeneity in study variables. Twenty-five out of 874 studies met inclusion criteria. The interventions studied were heterogeneous in population, intervention, modality, comparison condition, study design, and outcome. Twelve studies focused purely on PS; 13 used PS as part of a more comprehensive intervention. Eleven studies found positive effects in reducing depressive symptoms and two in reducing suicidality. There was little evidence that the intervention impacted PS skills or that PS skills acted as a mediator or moderator of effects on depression. There is mixed evidence about the effectiveness of PS as a prevention and treatment of depression among AYA. Our findings indicate that pure PS interventions to treat clinical depression have the strongest evidence, while pure PS interventions used to prevent or treat sub-clinical depression and PS as part of a more comprehensive intervention show mixed results. Possible explanations for limited effectiveness are discussed, including missing outcome bias, variability in quality, dosage, and fidelity monitoring; small sample sizes and short follow-up periods.

Cognitive bias during clinical decision-making and its influence on patient outcomes in the emergency department: A scoping review.

An integral part of clinical practice is decision-making. Yet there is widespread acceptance that there is evidence of cognitive bias within clinical practice among nurses and physicians. However, how cognitive bias among emergency nurses and physicians' decision-making influences patient outcomes remains unclear. The aim of this review was to systematically synthesise research exploring the emergency nurses' and physicians' cognitive bias in decision-making and its influence on patient outcomes. This scoping review was guided by the PRISMA Extension for Scoping Reviews. The databases searched included CINAHL, MEDLINE, Web of Science and PubMed. No date limits were applied. The Patterns, Advances, Gaps, Evidence for practice and Research recommendation (PAGER) framework was used to guide the discussion. The review included 18 articles, consisting of 10 primary studies (nine quantitative and one qualitative) and eight literature reviews. Of the 18 articles, nine investigated physicians, five articles examined nurses, and four both physicians and nurses with sample sizes ranging from 13 to 3547. Six primary studies were cross-sectional and five used hypothetical scenarios, and one real-world assessment. Three were experimental studies. Twenty-nine cognitive biases were identified with Implicit bias (n = 12) most frequently explored, followed by outcome bias (n = 4). Results were inconclusive regarding the influence of biases on treatment decisions and patient outcomes. Four key themes were identified; (i) cognitive biases among emergency clinicians; (ii) measurement of cognitive bias; (iii) influence of cognitive bias on clinical decision-making; and (iv) association between emergency clinicians' cognitive bias and patient outcomes. This review identified that cognitive biases were present among emergency nurses and physicians during clinical decision-making, but it remains unclear how cognitive bias influences patient outcomes. Further research examining emergency clinicians' cognitive bias is required. Awareness of emergency clinicians' own cognitive biases may result to the provision of equity in care. We intend to disseminate the results through publication in a peer-reviewed journals and conference presentations.

Molecular disparities in colorectal cancers of White Americans, Alabama African Americans, and Oklahoma American Indians

In the US, the majority of cancer samples analyzed are from white people, leading to biases in racial and ethnic treatment outcomes. Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates are high in Alabama African Americans (AAs) and Oklahoma American Indians (AIs). We hypothesized that differences between racial groups may partially explain these disparities. Thus, we compared transcriptomic profiles of CRCs of Alabama AAs, Oklahoma AIs, and white people from both states. Compared to CRCs of white people, CRCs of AAs showed (a) higher expression of cytokines and vesicle trafficking toward modulated antitumor-immune activity, and (b) lower expression of the ID1/BMP/SMAD axis, IL22RA1, APOBEC3, and Mucins; and AIs had (c) higher expression of PTGS2/COX2 (an NSAID target/pro-oncogenic inflammation) and splicing regulators, and (d) lower tumor suppressor activities (e.g., TOB2, PCGF2, BAP1). Therefore, targeting strategies designed for white CRC patients may be less effective for AAs/AIs. These findings illustrate needs to develop optimized interventions to overcome racial CRC disparities.

Pars plana vitrectomy with internal limiting membrane flap versus pars plana vitrectomy with conventional internal limiting membrane peeling for large macular hole.

Macular hole (MH) is a full-thickness defect in the central portion of the retina that causes loss of central vision. According to the usual definition, a large MH has a diameter greater than 400 µm at the narrowest point. For closure of MH, there is evidence that pars plana vitrectomy (PPV) with internal limiting membrane (ILM) peeling achieves better anatomical outcomes than standard PPV. PPV with ILM peeling is currently the standard of care for MH management; however, the failure rate of this technique is higher for large MHs than for smaller MHs. Some studies have shown that the inverted ILM flap technique is superior to conventional ILM peeling for the management of large MHs. To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and safety of pars plana vitrectomy with the inverted internal limiting membrane flap technique versus pars plana vitrectomy with conventional internal limiting membrane peeling for treating large macular holes, including idiopathic, traumatic, and myopic macular holes. The Cochrane Eyes and Vision Information Specialist searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, two other databases, and two trials registries on 12 December 2022. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated PPV with ILM peeling versus PPV with inverted ILM flap for treatment of large MHs (with a basal diameter greater than 400 µm at the narrowest point measured by optical coherence tomography) of any type (idiopathic, traumatic, or myopic). We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and assessed the certainty of the body of evidence using GRADE. We included four RCTs (285 eyes of 275 participants; range per study 24 to 91 eyes). Most participants were women (63%), and of older age (range of means 59.4 to 66 years). Three RCTs were single-center trials, and the same surgeon performed all surgeries in two RCTs (the third single-center RCT did not report the number of surgeons). One RCT was a multicenter trial (three sites), and four surgeons performed all surgeries. Two RCTs took place in India, one in Poland, and one in Mexico. Maximum follow-up ranged from three months (2 RCTs) to 12 months (1 RCT). No RCTs reported conflicts of interest or disclosed financial support. All four RCTs enrolled people with large idiopathic MHs and compared conventional PPV with ILM peeling versus PPV with inverted ILM flap techniques. Variations in technique across the four RCTs were minimal. There was some heterogeneity in interventions: in two RCTs, all participants underwent combined cataract-PPV surgery, whereas in one RCT, some participants underwent cataract surgery after PPV (the fourth RCT did not mention cataract surgery). The critical outcomes for this review were mean best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and MH closure rates. All four RCTs provided data for meta-analyses of both critical outcomes. We assessed the risk of bias for both outcomes using the Cochrane risk of bias tool (RoB 2); there were some concerns for risk of bias associated with lack of masking of outcome assessors and selective reporting of outcomes in all RCTs. All RCTs reported postoperative BCVA values; only one RCT reported the change in BCVA from baseline. Based on evidence from the four RCTs, it is unclear if the inverted ILM flap technique compared with ILM peeling reduces (improves) postoperative BCVA measured on a logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) chart at one month (mean difference [MD] -0.08 logMAR, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.20 to 0.05; P = 0.23, I2 = 65%; 4 studies, 254 eyes; very low-certainty evidence), but it may improve BCVA at three months or more (MD -0.17 logMAR, 95% CI -0.23 to -0.10; P < 0.001, I2 = 0%; 4 studies, 276 eyes; low-certainty evidence). PPV with an inverted ILM flap compared to PPV with ILM peeling probably increases the proportion of eyes achieving MH closure (risk ratio [RR] 1.10, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.18; P = 0.01, I2 = 0%; 4 studies, 276 eyes; moderate-certainty evidence) and type 1 MH closure (RR 1.31, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.66; P = 0.03, I² = 69%; 4 studies, 276 eyes; moderate-certainty evidence). One study reported that none of the 38 participants experienced postoperative retinal detachment. We found low-certainty evidence from four small RCTs that PPV with the inverted ILM flap technique is superior to PPV with ILM peeling with respect to BCVA gains at three or more months after surgery. We also found moderate-certainty evidence that the inverted ILM flap technique achieves more overall and type 1 MH closures. There is a need for high-quality multicenter RCTs to ascertain whether the inverted ILM flap technique is superior to ILM peeling with regard to anatomical and functional outcomes. Investigators should use the standard logMAR charts when measuring BCVA to facilitate comparison across trials.

Recall Bias in Client-Reported Outcomes in Canine Orthopaedic Patients Using Clinical Metrology Instruments.

The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of client recollection of their dogs' preconsultation status using clinical metrology instruments such as the Liverpool Osteoarthritis in Dogs (LOAD) and Canine Brief Pain Inventory (CBPI) questionnaires in dogs presenting to a referral orthopaedic clinic. This is a longitudinal prospective cohort study of client-owned dogs presenting for investigations of lameness (n = 217). LOAD and CBPI questionnaires were completed by the owners at the first consultation (T0). Owners were contacted at 2 (T1), 6 (T2), and 12 (T3) months and asked to recall their dogs' T0 status by completing another LOAD and CBPI questionnaire. The agreement between the T0 and recalled LOAD and CBPI scores was determined using the two-way mixed effects intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). The Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to determine the difference between scores. For the LOAD scores, there was moderate agreement between T0 and T1 (ICC: 0.64) and T0 and T2 (ICC: 0.53) scores and poor agreement between T0 and T3 (ICC: 0.496). For the CBPI Pain Severity Scores, there was poor agreement between T0 and all three subsequent time points (ICC < 0.5). For the CBPI Pain Interference Scores, there was moderate agreement between T0 and T1 (ICC: 0.57) and T2 (ICC: 0.56) scores and poor agreement between T0 and T3 (ICC: 0.43). The LOAD and CBPI questionnaires are subject to recall bias. Studies reporting retrospectively acquired CMI data should be interpreted with caution.

Outcomes Affect Evaluations of Decision Quality: Replication and Extensions of Baron and Hershey&amp;rsquo;s (1988) Outcome Bias Experiment 1

Outcome bias is the phenomenon whereby decisions which resulted in successful outcomes were rated more favorably than when the same decisions resulted in failures. We conducted a pre-registered replication and extension of Experiment 1 (original’s: N = 20) from the classic Baron and Hershey (1988) with an online Amazon Mechanical Turk sample using CloudResearch (N = 692), switching from a within-participants design in the original experiment to a between-participants design. We tested outcome bias by measuring participants’ ratings of the quality of decisions in medical scenarios. For the replication (pre-registered) part of the study, we successfully replicated signal and direction of the outcome bias (original: dpaired = 0.21 – 0.53; replication: dindependent = 0.77 [0.62, 0.93] to 1.1 [0.94, 1.26]), and even for participants who stated that outcomes should not be taken into consideration when evaluating decisions (d = 0.64 [0.21, 1.08]). For the extension part of the study, we found differences, dependent on outcome types, in evaluations of the perceived importance of considering the outcome, the perceived responsibility of decision-makers, and the perception that others would act similarly given the choice by outcome type. Materials, data, and code are available on Open Science Framework (OSF): https://osf.io/knjhu/.

Intelligence brings responsibility - Even smart AI assistants are held responsible

People will not hold cars responsible for traffic accidents, yet they do when artificial intelligence (AI) is involved. AI systems are held responsible when they act or merely advise a human agent. Does this mean that as soon as AI is involved responsibility follows? To find out, we examined whether purely instrumental AIsystems stay clear of responsibility. We compared AI-powered with non-AI-powered car warning systems and measured their responsibility rating alongside their human users. Our findings show that responsibility is shared whenthe warning system is powered by AI but not by a purely mechanical system, even though people consider both systems as mere tools. Surprisingly, whetherthe warning prevents the accident introduces an outcome bias: the AI takes higher credit than blame depending on what the human manages or fails to do.

Downward counterfactual analysis of multi-risk cascades

Loss outcomes from geohazards are compounded by an array of human risk factors. The combination of geohazards and human risk factors can generate multi-risk cascades. In the historical record, disasters arising from such multi-risk cascades are comparatively rare. However, far more common are near-misses, where a disaster tipping point to massive destructive energy release and expanding losses was narrowly averted. What happened historically is only one realization of what might have happened. Due to psychological outcome bias, people pay far less attention to near-misses than to actual losses. A downward counterfactual is a psychological term for a thought about the past, where things turned for the worse. Exploration of downward counterfactuals enhances risk awareness and can contribute to risk preparedness. There are no databases of multi-risk cascade near-misses, but insights can be gained from downward counterfactual analysis. Geohazard examples of multi-risk downward counterfactuals are given, including cases of critical infrastructure damage. A downward counterfactual can drive a minor hazard event beyond the disaster tipping point boundary, and turn a disaster into a major catastrophe. To illustrate the latter, a downward counterfactual analysis is presented of the Fukushima nuclear accident of 11 March 2011, which might have crossed the tipping point boundary into a multi-risk cascade catastrophe.

The Role of Behavioral Bias in Investment Outcomes

Investment decisions are made by individuals who are subject to behavioral biases. The biases could lead to a significant impact on the outcome of investments. This research paper aims to investigate the role of behavioral biases in investment decisions and outcome. The study draws on the theories of Rational Behavioral Finance, which recognizes that human behavior is influenced by both rational and irrational factors. The paper reviews several key behavioral biases that can affect investment decisions, including loss aversion, endowment bias, framing, overconfidence, and the illusion of control. The analysis of these biases is based on the context of different investment settings, including stock markets, mutual funds, and real estate. The paper introduces the significance of each bias, and how they can lead to suboptimal investment decisions. The latter part of the paper highlights how the biases can be addressed to improve the outcome of investments. Eventually, the research paper concludes that behavioral biases can significantly impact investment outcomes, but the application of Rational Behavioral Finance theories and strategies can mitigate the impact of these biases.

When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?

AbstractWe study whether outcome bias persists in markets with actors who are financially incentivized to make optimal decisions. We test whether inherently noisy match outcomes from European football are correctly incorporated into prices from a betting exchange market. We find that market prices overestimate (underestimate) the winning probability of teams that previously overperformed (underperformed) in terms of match outcomes compared to their performance based on “expected goals.” This pattern is mirrored in negative (positive) betting returns on overperforming (underperforming) teams. These results suggest that even competitive market mechanisms fail to completely erase outcome bias.

Frailty: A Strong Impact on Lung Transplant Outcomes?

Frailty: A Strong Impact on Lung Transplant Outcomes?