Outcome Bias Research Articles

One thought too few: An adaptive rationale for punishing negligence.

Why do we punish negligence? Some current accounts raise the possibility that it can be explained by the kinds of processes that lead us to punish ordinary harmful acts, such as outcome bias, character inference, or antecedent deliberative choices. Although they capture many important cases, these explanations fail to account for others. We argue that, in addition to these phenomena, there is something unique to the punishment of negligence itself: People hold others directly responsible for the basic fact of failing to bring to mind information that would help them to avoid important risks. In other words, we propose that at its heart negligence is a failure of thought. Drawing on the current literature in moral psychology, we suggest that people find it natural to punish such failures, even when they do not arise from conscious, volitional choice. This raises a question: Why punish somebody for a mental event they did not exercise deliberative control over? Drawing on the literature on how thoughts come to mind, we argue that punishing a person for such failures will help prevent their future occurrence, even without the involvement of volitional choice. This provides new insight on the structure and function of our tendency to punish negligent actions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Remote ischaemic preconditioning for transcatheter aortic valve replacement: a protocol for a systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

IntroductionTranscatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) has become an important treatment in patients with aortic valve disease with the continuous advancement of technology and the improvement of outcomes. However, TAVR-related complications...

Do incidental positive emotions induce more optimistic expectations of decision outcomes? An empirical study from the perspective of event-related potential.

Previous research has found that incidental emotions of different valences (positive/negative/neutral) influence risky decision-making. However, the mechanism of their influence on psychological expectations of decision outcomes remains unclear. We explored the effects of different incidental emotions on the behavioral, psychological, and electrophysiological responses of individuals in risky decision-making through a money gambling task using a one-way (emotion type: positive, negative, neutral emotions) between-subjects experimental design. Individuals with positive emotions had significantly greater risk-seeking rates than those with negative emotions during the decision selection phase (p<.01). In the feedback stage of decision outcomes, individuals showed stronger perceptions of uncertainty in the decision environment under gain and loss feedback compared with neutral feedback, as evidenced by a more positive P2 component (i.e., the second positive component of an event-related potential). Positive emotions produced greater than expected outcome bias than neutral emotions, as evidenced by a more negative FRN component (i.e., the feedback-related negativity component). Our results suggest that positive emotions increase individuals' psychological expectations of decision outcomes. This study provides new empirical insights to understand the influence of incidental emotions on risky decision outcome expectations.

Cognitive Biases in High-Stakes Decision-Making: Implications for Joint Pediatric Cardiology and Cardiothoracic Surgery Conference.

Extensive research has consistently demonstrated that humans frequently diverge from rational decision-making processes due to the pervasive influence of cognitive biases. This paper conducts an examination of the impact of cognitive biases on high-stakes decision-making within the context of the joint pediatric cardiology and cardiothoracic surgery conference, offering practical recommendations for mitigating their effects. Recognized biases such as confirmation bias, availability bias, outcome bias, overconfidence bias, sunk cost fallacy, loss aversion, planning fallacy, authority bias, and illusion of agreement are analyzed concerning their specific implications within this conference setting. To counteract these biases and enhance the quality of decision-making, practical strategies are proposed, including the implementation of a no-interruption policy until all data is reviewed, leaders refraining from immediate input, requiring participants to formulate independent judgments prior to sharing recommendations, explicit probability estimations grounded in base rates, seeking external opinions, and promoting an environment that encourages dissenting perspectives.

Do Lucky People Reciprocate More? The Effect of Outcome Bias on Trustworthiness

This study investigates how reciprocity works in a simple trust game when the subjects are framed as either lucky or unlucky. We induce luckiness perception to the second mover by introducing uncertainty with a different combination of possible multipliers, allowing us to observe the effect of outcome bias on trustworthiness while controlling for the wealth effect. We do not find a significantly different level of trustworthiness between lucky second movers and unlucky second movers. The result suggests the null effect of outcome bias on reciprocal behaviour. JEL Classifications: C91, D01, D63, D91

The causal effect of early retirement on medication use across sex and occupation: evidence from Danish administrative data.

We examine the causal effect of early retirement on medication use using Danish registry data. A reform in early retirement schemes in 2006 gradually increased eligibility ages from 60 to 64 differentially across birth cohorts. This enables an instrumental variable design that was applied using novel g-estimation methods that alleviate bias in binary outcome IV models. Our data allow studying patterns in the short run (ages 59½-60½) and in the long run (ages 57-63). For those who were eligible already at age 60, retirement did not change overall medication use. However, when investigating medication and population subgroups, we see that painkiller use decreases and hypertension medication as well as mental health medication use increase after retirement in almost all population subgroups. Moreover, males as well as the blue-collar occupation subgroups do show decreases in overall medication use after early retirement. In conclusion, our analyses reveal that retirement can have important heterogeneous health effects across population groups and are potentially informative about the welfare benefits of social insurance more broadly.

Oncologist Perceptions of Racial Disparity, Racial Anxiety, and Unconscious Bias in Clinical Interactions, Treatment, and Outcomes.

Cancer spares no demographic or socioeconomic group; it is indeed the great equalizer. But its distribution is not equal; when structural discrimination concentrates poverty and race, zip code surpasses genetic code in predicting outcomes. Compared with White patients in the United States, Black patients are less likely to receive appropriate treatment and referral to clinical trials, genetic testing, or palliative care/hospice. In 2021, we administered a survey to 369 oncologists measuring differences in perceptions surrounding racial disparity, racial anxiety, and unconscious bias and adverse influence on clinical interactions, treatment, and outcomes for non-White patients. We analyzed responses by generational age group, sex/gender, race/ethnicity, US region, and selection of "decline to respond." The most significant differences occurred by age group followed by race/ethnicity. Racial disparity was perceived as moderate to very high by 84% of millennial, 69% of Generation X, and 57% of baby boomer oncologists, who were also 86% more likely than millennials and 63% more likely than Generation Xers to perceive low/nonexistent levels of racial anxiety/unconscious bias. Most oncologists rarely or never perceived racial anxiety/unconscious bias as adversely influencing clinical treatment or survival outcomes in non-White patients, and White oncologists were 85% more likely than non-White oncologists to perceive rare/nonexistent influence on referral of non-White patients to palliative care/hospice. The discrepancy between 62% of oncologists perceiving moderate to very high levels of racial anxiety/unconscious bias and 37% associating them with adverse influence on non-White patients shows a disconnect, especially among older oncologists (baby boomers), who were also least likely to select the decline option. Together, these factors hinder effective patient-provider communication and result in differential care and outcomes. Oncologists should uncover their own perceptions surrounding racial disparity, racial anxiety, and unconscious bias and modify their behaviors accordingly. It is this simple-and this complicated. Cancer does not discriminate, and neither should cancer care.

Impact of Race, Socioeconomic Status, and Geography on Healthcare Outcomes for Children With Sickle Cell Disease in the United States: A Scoping Review.

A large proportionof patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) identify as Black or African American (AA). Social bias and stigma in healthcare outcomes for children with SCD are impossible to explore without considering the impact of racial/cultural identity, socioeconomic status (SES), and geography. It is important to understand the current influences of social movements, expanded health insurance coverage, and telehealth on these variables when considering healthcare outcomes for patients with SCD. The objective of this study was to determine the roles of racial identity, SES, and geography in healthcare outcomes for the pediatric population of children with SCD in the United States (US). This study is a scoping review following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The databases utilized included Cochrane, CINHAL, Medline, and Nursing and Allied Health Collection, all accessed through the EBSCO Information Services. Studies met the following inclusion criteria: published in English, pediatric patients residing in the US, and published between 2017 and 2022. Search terms included "sickle cell" AND "pediatric", which were then combined with "minority" OR "racial" OR "rural" OR "urban" OR "poverty" OR "income" OR "socioeconomic status". The initial search yielded 635 unique articles, with 17 articles meeting full inclusion criteria. Overall, it was clear that there are examples of positive effects of race, low SES, and rural geographic location on positive health outcomes, though a large number of studies oscillated between showing negative associations or no association at all. Barriers to care for patients with SCD are multifaceted, making it difficult to isolate and analyze the impact of individual variables. Many studies demonstrated the significance of family, community, and institutional relationships as positive support for patients with SCD. This review highlights the need for additional research on the healthcare outcome benefits of patient/familial support groups aiming to bring together patients who share racial experience and SCD diagnosis regardless of SES and geography.

Using case vignettes to study the presence of outcome, hindsight, and implicit bias in acute unplanned medical care: a cross-sectional study.

Various biases can impact decision-making and judgment of case quality in the Emergency Department (ED). Outcome and hindsight bias can lead to wrong retrospective judgment of care quality, and implicit bias can result in unjust treatment differences in the ED based on irrelevant patient characteristics. First, to evaluate the extent to which knowledge of an outcome influences physicians' quality of care assessment. Secondly, to examine whether patients with functional disorders receive different treatment compared to patients with a somatic past medical history. A web-based cross-sectional study in which physicians received case vignettes with a case description and care provided. Physicians were informed about vignette outcomes in a randomized way (no, good, or bad outcome). Physicians rated quality of care for four case vignettes with different outcomes. Subsequently, they received two more case vignettes. Physicians were informed about the past medical history of the patient in a randomized way (somatic or functional). Physicians made treatment and diagnostic decisions for both cases. One hundred ninety-one Dutch emergency physicians (EPs) and general practitioners (GPs) participated. Quality of care was rated on a Likert scale (0-5) and dichotomized as adequate (yes/no). Physicians estimated the likelihood of patients experiencing a bad outcome for hindsight bias. For the second objective, physicians decided on prescribing analgesics and additional diagnostic tests. Large differences existed in rated quality of care for three out of four vignettes based on different case outcomes. For example, physicians rated the quality of care as adequate in 44% (95% CI 33-57%) for an abdominal pain case with a bad outcome, compared to 88% (95% CI 78-94%) for a good outcome, and 84% (95% CI 73-91%) for no outcome ( P < 0.01). The estimated likelihood of a bad outcome was higher if physicians received a vignette with a bad patient outcome. Fewer diagnostic tests were performed and fewer opioids were prescribed for patients with a functional disorder. Outcome, hindsight, and implicit bias significantly influence decision-making and care quality assessment by Dutch EPs and GPs.

Systemic therapy in children and adolescents with mental disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundSystemic therapy (ST) is a psychotherapeutic intervention in complex human systems (both psychological and interpersonal). Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is an established treatment for children and adolescents with mental disorders. As methodologically rigorous systematic reviews on ST in this population are lacking, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the benefit and harm of ST (and ST as an add-on to CBT) with CBT in children and adolescents with mental disorders.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, Embase, PsycINFO and other sources for randomised controlled trials in 14 mental disorder classes for the above comparisons in respect of effects on patient-relevant outcomes (search date: 7/2022). Where possible, meta-analyses were performed and results were graded into 3 different evidence categories: “proof”, “indication”, or “hint” (or none of these categories). PRISMA standards were followed.ResultsFifteen studies in 5 mental disorder classes with usable data were identified. 2079 patients (mean age: 10 to 19 years) were analysed. 12/15 studies and 29/30 outcomes showed a high risk of bias. In 2 classes, statistically significant and clinically relevant effects in favour of ST were found, supporting the conclusion of a hint of greater benefit of ST for mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use and of ST as an add-on to CBT for obsessive-compulsive disorders. In 2 other classes (eating disorders; hyperkinetic disorders), there was no evidence of greater benefit or harm of ST. For affective disorders, a statistically significant effect to the disadvantage of ST was found for 1 outcome, supporting the conclusion of a hint of lesser benefit of ST.ConclusionsOur results show a hint of greater benefit of ST (or ST as an add-on to CBT) compared with CBT for 2 mental disorder classes in children and adolescents (mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use, obsessive compulsive disorders). Given the importance of CBT as a control intervention, ST can therefore be considered a beneficial treatment option for children and adolescents with certain mental disorders. Limitations include an overall high risk of bias of studies and outcomes and a lack of data for several disorders.

Rethinking disruptive innovation: unravelling theoretical controversies and charting new research frontiers

ABSTRACT For more than two decades, disruptive innovation theory (DIT) has stood as one of the most influential business theories of the 21st century. Despite its widespread impact and the extensive scholarly work it has inspired, DIT has encountered divergent views among academics, sparking debates over its evolution and applicability. This essay dives into these debates, methodically unraveling and highlighting key critiques and controversies shaping the discourse around DIT. These controversies include definitional ambiguity, the case-study conundrum, challenges in generalizability, issues in defining a unit of measure, biases in assessing DIT outcomes, and the exploration of its predictive and prescriptive potential. By synthesizing and recalibrating existing theoretical disputes and distinguishing between critique and controversies, we shed new light on often overlooked or unresolved issues, particularly outcome bias and the theory’s performative capabilities beyond its predictive or prescriptive scope. Introducing a novel “challenger-incumbent perspective,” our analysis extends the discussion beyond the traditional dichotomy between established organizations and disruptors. In conclusion, we pave the way for future research directions, aiming to deepen our understanding and enhance the practical application of this influential yet contested concept.

The Neural Correlates of Individual Differences in Reinforcement Learning during Pain Avoidance and Reward Seeking.

Organisms learn to gain reward and avoid punishment through action-outcome associations. Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a critical framework to understand individual differences in this associative learning by assessing learning rate, action bias, pavlovian factor (i.e., the extent to which action values are influenced by stimulus values), and subjective impact of outcomes (i.e., motivation to seek reward and avoid punishment). Nevertheless, how these individual-level metrics are represented in the brain remains unclear. The current study leveraged fMRI in healthy humans and a probabilistic learning go/no-go task to characterize the neural correlates involved in learning to seek reward and avoid pain. Behaviorally, participants showed a higher learning rate during pain avoidance relative to reward seeking. Additionally, the subjective impact of outcomes was greater for reward trials and associated with lower response randomness. Our imaging findings showed that individual differences in learning rate and performance accuracy during avoidance learning were positively associated with activities of the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, midcingulate cortex, and postcentral gyrus. In contrast, the pavlovian factor was represented in the precentral gyrus and superior frontal gyrus (SFG) during pain avoidance and reward seeking, respectively. Individual variation of the subjective impact of outcomes was positively predicted by activation of the left posterior cingulate cortex. Finally, action bias was represented by the supplementary motor area (SMA) and pre-SMA whereas the SFG played a role in restraining this action tendency. Together, these findings highlight for the first time the neural substrates of individual differences in the computational processes during RL.

Anticoagulant prescribing patterns in patients with primary central nervous system malignancies and secondary metastases.

To evaluate the safety of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) versus low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) in patients with central nervous system (CNS) malignancies and secondary metastases. All adult patients with CNS malignancies and secondary metastases who were treated with a DOAC or LMWH for any indication from 2018 to 2022 were included. The primary outcome was the incidence of any intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) after anticoagulation initiation. Secondary outcomes included non-ICH bleeding events and thromboembolic events. Tolerability was assessed by any changes in anticoagulant therapy during study period. 153 patients were included; 48 patients received enoxaparin and 105 received DOACs, of which apixaban was used most commonly. The population was predominantly White (74%) and male (59%) with a median age of 65. Data was censored for immortal time bias for outcomes evaluated beyond 3months. ICH occurred in 7.7% of the population, more frequently in the enoxaparin group (DOACs 4, 4% vs. enoxaparin 7, 16%, p = 0.037). Non-ICH bleeds were predominantly minor and more common in the DOAC group (DOACs 13, 13% vs. enoxaparin 1, 2%, p = 0.037). Thromboembolic events were not different between groups (DOACs 9. 9% vs, enoxaparin 2, 4%, p = 0.503). Anticoagulant switches occurred more in the enoxaparin group (DOACs 12, 12.4% vs. enoxaparin, 37.8%, p < 0.001), primarily due to patient or provider preference. Our data supports DOACs to be preferred over LMWH for the treatment of VTE or for stroke prevention with AF to prevent ICH in patients with brain tumors or metastases.

Emotional Economics: The Role of Psychological Biases in Personal Investment Outcomes

Emotional Economics: The Role of Psychological Biases in Personal Investment Outcomes

Does Performance Pressure Accentuate Outcome Bias? Evidence from Managerial Dismissals

Does Performance Pressure Accentuate Outcome Bias? Evidence from Managerial Dismissals

Uncovering specific taxonomic and functional alteration of gut microbiota in chronic kidney disease through 16S rRNA data.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is worldwide healthcare burden with growing incidence and death rate. Emerging evidence demonstrated the compositional and functional differences of gut microbiota in patients with CKD. As such, gut microbial features can be developed as diagnostic biomarkers and potential therapeutic target for CKD. To eliminate the outcome bias arising from factors such as geographical distribution, sequencing platform, and data analysis techniques, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the microbial differences between patients with CKD and healthy individuals based on multiple samples worldwide. A total of 980 samples from six references across three nations were incorporated from the PubMed, Web of Science, and GMrepo databases. The obtained 16S rRNA microbiome data were subjected to DADA2 processing, QIIME2 and PICRUSt2 analyses. The gut microbiota of patients with CKD differs significantly from that of healthy controls (HC), with a substantial decrease in the microbial diversity among the CKD group. Moreover, a significantly reduced abundance of bacteria Faecalibacterium prausnitzii (F. prausnitzii) was detected in the CKD group through linear discriminant analysis effect size (LEfSe) analysis, which may be associated with the alleviating effects against CKD. Notably, we identified CKD-depleted F. prausnitzii demonstrated a significant negative correlation with three pathways based on predictive functional analysis, suggesting its potential role in regulating systemic acidbase disturbance and pro-oxidant metabolism. Our findings demonstrated notable alterations of gut microbiota in CKD patients. Specific gut-beneficial microbiota, especially F. prausnitzii, may be developed as a preventive and therapeutic tool for CKD clinical management.

Impact of Mode Switching on Nonresponse and Bias in a Multimode Longitudinal Study of Young Adults.

Young adults are generally hard to survey, presenting researchers with numerous difficulties. They are hard to locate and contact due to high mobility. They are hard to persuade and exhibit high levels of resistance to survey participation. As a result, they pose a greater challenge for longitudinal surveys. This paper explores the role of mode of data collection in young adults' decisions to stay in a longitudinal panel. We draw on data from the National Young Adult Health Survey (NYAHS). NYAHS is a longitudinal study (three annual waves and 2 brief between-wave follow-up surveys) of adults aged 18-34 initially recruited in 2019 through RDD sampling of cell phone numbers nationwide. All sampled cell phone numbers were randomly assigned to one of three experimental conditions; the conditions differed in mode of data collection used in subsequent interviews once screened in. In the first condition, young adults continue all rounds of interviews by telephone ("telephone only" condition). The second group of young adults completed one round of interview by web and the rest by telephone ("telephone mostly" condition). The last third was asked to complete three interviews online and two interviews by telephone ("web mostly" condition). We examined the impact of mode switching on young adults' likelihood of participating in later surveys and on nonresponse bias in key survey outcomes. We found that switching young adults from telephone to web had an immediate negative effect on their likelihood of participating in that web survey, but it did not have a continued negative effect. Switching them from web to telephone increased response rates and reduced nonresponse bias. The findings have important practical implications on how to survey young adults.

Review on data imputation methods in machine learning

Data is an important element in the analysis of machine learning. It is usually measured based on observations and is also an indispensable element in training a model. Good preparation of data helps enhance the performance of analysis and is able to deliver reliable final results. However, lots of factors influence the dataset and some lead to the loss of some data. When some portion of the data is missing, it causes biases in the final prediction outcomes. In order to minimize the consequences of missing data, several data imputation methods are established to solve the problem. This paper will first talk about some basic concepts about missing data. In the following sections, the paper will present several popular data imputation methods, including complete case analysis, single imputation, and multiple imputations. Applications of some methods will be presented to see how they can be used in real analysis situations. Finally, the paper will talk about the limits of current data imputation methods.

Are Insolvency Practitioners Human? On the Role of Similarity, Outcome and Gender Bias in Insolvency Situations

Are Insolvency Practitioners Human? On the Role of Similarity, Outcome and Gender Bias in Insolvency Situations

Omega-3 supplementation improves depressive symptoms, cognitive function and niacin skin flushing response in adolescent depression: A randomized controlled clinical trial

BackgroundDepressive disorder in adolescents is a major health problem with inadequate treatment. Omega-3 (ω3) polyunsaturated fatty acids are a promising adjuvant therapy in adult depression. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the efficacy of adjuvant ω3 treatment on depressive symptoms in adolescent depression. Secondarily, we explored the effects of ω3 on cognitive function and memory and niacin skin flushing response (NSFR), as their robust associations with adolescent depression. MethodsA total of 71 adolescents with depression (aged 13–24; 59.2 % female) were randomly assigned to receive ω3 plus Paxil (n = 34) or Paxil alone (n = 37) for 12 weeks. Primary outcome was depression severity according to scores on Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS). Secondary outcomes were cognitive function and memory, and NSFR. ResultsSignificant improvements in depressive symptoms over time (p = 0.00027 at week 12) were observed in the ω3 + Paxil group compared with Paxil group. Additionally, in the ω3 + Paxil group, significant improvements in memory over time, and greater cognitive function and NSFR were also observed compared with the Paxil group; the NSFR was negatively correlated with MADRS scores at baseline. LimitationsThe trial was open label; thus, the outcome measures should be viewed as preliminary since inherent bias in outcomes due to the potential of a placebo effect. ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that adjuvant ω3 treatment is effective for reducing depressive symptoms as well as improving cognitive function, memory and the NSFR; these results suggest ω3 is a promising adjuvant treatment for adolescent depression.