Outbound Tourism Demand Research Articles

STRATEGIES OF TOURISM DEVELOPMENT FOR UKRAINE IN THE CONDITIONS OF MILITARY OPERATIONS AND THE POST-WAR PERIOD

The article examines the current features of the tourism sector in Ukraine. The role of external factors in the process of ensuring the effective development of the tourism industry is noted. The author highlights the main factors that contributed to the growth of outbound tourism in Ukraine: the introduction of a visa-free regime with the EU countries, the expansion of air travel and the opening of direct flights, the growth of low-cost tours, the growth of purchasing power of Ukrainians, and the strengthening of the national currency. However, quarantine restrictions closed airports, emptied hotels, and reduced demand for travel agency services. And as soon as the industry began to recover from the coronavirus, Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine again dealt a severe blow to the travel business. It is proved that an important feature of the tourism business is its dependence on sharp seasonal fluctuations in demand for the tourism product. The research results show that outbound tourism in Ukraine has a pronounced seasonality. Further growth in demand for outbound tourism is noted, which in the future will ensure an even greater outflow of foreign currency, which will negatively affect the country's balance of payments and gross domestic product. The main trends in the context of the impact of the level of population income on the development of outbound tourism are identified. The full-scale Russian invasion has had a negative impact on all sectors of the economy. The Ukrainian tourism sector has suffered the most. The closed skies, restrictions on men traveling abroad, and the forced relocation of a large part of the population have certainly limited the ability to travel. As a result of the negative impact of external factors, there has been a drop in demand for foreign tourism and the willingness of a significant proportion of the population to reorient to the consumption of recreational services in Ukraine. Under these conditions, it is of particular importance to study issues related to improving the efficiency of this industry, as well as expanding the range and range of services provided. It is worth noting the growing impact of the tourism industry on the nature of socio-economic processes within urban and rural communities. The growing demand for green and ethnic tourism opens up broad prospects for development for family businesses, as these areas do not require significant material costs as stratum capital. At the same time, there is a question of the proper qualification level of persons planning to realize themselves in the hospitality business, and there is a need for proper organizational and informational support in this area. This, in turn, necessitates the optimization of the theoretical and methodological framework and methodological tools.

Asymmetric effects of third-country exchange rate risk: A Markov switching approach

The standard tourism demand models consider the effects of the bilateral real exchange rate between origin and destination in a linear context. Our study contributes to the literature by incorporating the asymmetric effects of real exchange rate volatility of home and third-countries. We propose a Markov Switching ARDL model to estimate outbound tourism demand over the period of 2002–2019. This model allows us to examine both the short- and long-run effects in the likely presence of asymmetric effects and structural breaks. The results reveal that there are nonlinear asymmetric long- and short-run effects of the third-countries exchange rate volatility. We also identify relevant structural changes coinciding with major events.

Windfall money and outbound tourism: A natural experiment from lottery winnings

Income is a relevant factor for explaining outbound tourism demand. However, when working with regional- or country-level data, it is difficult to disentangle the role of income in stimulating tourism travelling from other factors that correlate with greater income levels. This paper exploits a natural experiment from Spanish Christmas Lottery to estimate the causal effect of income shocks on outbound tourism. We leverage the staggered and quasi-random assignment of lottery winnings across Spanish regions to estimate the elasticity of outbound annual trips and expenditure to windfall gains. Using difference-in-differences with the amount of lottery prizes as an indicator of treatment intensity, we show that lottery winnings per capita increase both the annual number of tourism trips and expenditure per capita. This effect operates during the first 2 years following the draw, which is likely explained by bandwagon and income multiplier effects.

Modeling Tourism Import: The Case of Oecd Countries

Research on outbound tourism demand has not kept pace with the rapid development of research on inbound tourism demand. Economic and non-economic factors of tourism import in countries of origin are investigated using static and dynamic panel data models. A period of 17 years and 35 OECD countries are included in the study. Income in the country of origin, the real effective exchange rate, trade openness, tourism export per tourist arrival, political stability of the country, persistence of habits, and two dummy variables are found to be statistically significant. Inelastic tourism demand factor coefficients show a relatively low level of sensibility of outbound travelers to the changes in their home country, whether related to economic or non-economic factors. Political stability proved to be the most important variable for tourism demand abroad. The unavailability of data on social and psychological demand-related factors turned out to be a problem for longer time series in OECD countries. However, the study provides an insight into how targeted policy measures could influence outbound tourism flows.

Outbound Tourism Demand Modeling – Region Destination Approach: The Case of Vietnam’s Data

ABSTRACT Although there have been several studies on international tourism demand, research on outbound tourism has not received as much attention, especially approaching destinations as a region (group of countries). This paper aims to establish outbound tourism demand modeling and determine the role of factors influencing this model. Using Vietnam’s data from 1995 to 2019, the study focuses on eleven main destination countries divided into three regions, namely Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and intercontinental. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for panel data and robustness tests was deployed and shows that population size and income per capita of the source country are important factors that determine the size of the outbound tourism market. Moreover, traveling abroad remains a luxury service for Vietnamese people, especially to countries in Northeast Asia. Prices also affect outbound tourism demand, but most demand is inelastic by own and cross prices. In addition, the study also pinpoints the competing destinations and complementary destinations for overseas travel trips by Vietnamese people.

환율변동과 Outbound-Inbound 관광수요에 대한 비대칭성 연구

In order to estimate the asymmetry of exchange rate changes (won/dollar, won/yen) on tourism demand, the ARDL-bounds model was used to test the effect of long-term and short-term asymmetry. By dividing tourism demand into outbound and inbound, an analysis was conducted based on the influence of Korean tourists and the tourists who visited Korea. As a result of estimating Korea''s total demand for outbound tourism, in the long run, an exchange rate rise of 1% has the effect of a decrease of 1.2% of outbound Koreans, whereas when the exchange rate falls, the number of outbound travelers increases by 2.1%. These results indicate an asymmetry. The result of the inbound tourism demand analysis indicates a long-term asymmetry was significantly observed in the total tourism demand analysis, but the long-term coefficient value was not significant, limiting the numerical interpretation.

Asymmetric own- and cross-price effects: the case of US outbound tourism demand

ABSTRACT Past studies have generally assumed that tourism demand is perfectly price-reversible, and tourists respond to price increases and decreases symmetrically. This paper aims to investigate the potential asymmetric effects of tourism prices on outbound US tourism demand for Canada, Mexico, the UK, France, and Italy. Using the linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, the results show that in the long run, asymmetric responses to own-price changes are found for Canada, the UK, France, and Italy. Regarding own-price elasticities, US tourists tend to respond strongly to price increases, while they are insensitive to price decreases in the long run. These findings differ from the results from the linear model in which the own-price elasticities tend to be insignificant. In the short run, tourism demand appears to be more responsive to price decreases than to price increases, suggesting that tourists’ behaviour differs between the short and long run. Examination of the cross-price elasticities indicates that the degrees of substitutability and complementarity between destinations vary, depending on the direction of price changes.

Оценка состояния, проблем и трендов развития рынка туристских услуг в регионах России на фоне пандемии коронавируса

The article examines the impact of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic on the tourism and hospitality industry. Based on an assessment of the scale of losses incurred by enterprises in this sector of the economy in an unfavorable epidemiological situation, it was concluded that tourism was among the industries most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The identified problems faced by small and medium-sized businesses from among tour operators and travel agencies confirmed the correctness of the measures of state support provided by the state to this sector of the economy. A comparative analysis of the development of the tourism sector in 2019 and 2020 in terms of such parameters as the number of inbound and outbound trips of citizens, the volume of demand for tourism services, made it possible to assess the threats and opportunities for the functioning of the tourism sector during the pandemic for the Russian economy and suggest that the recovery of the tourism industry it may take at least three years. There have been illustrated the diagrams comparing the demand for outbound and inbound tourism in 2019 and 2020, the demand for tourist services among different strata of the population, and hotel occupancy in Russia. In addition to identifying general factors that hinder the balanced growth of the Russian market of tourist services, the problem of information asymmetry was stated, which hinders the realization of the tourist potential in the regions: lack/ insufficient data, or distorted data on the tourism potential in certain territories. The highlighted trends in the development of the Russian tourism industry in the current conditions and promising trends in the tourism and hospitality industry include greening, digitalization, individualization of both demand and supply, an orientation towards domestic tourism.

Modelling the employment, income and price elasticities of outbound tourism demand in OECD countries

This study examines how employment affects demand for tourism in the short and long run, controlling for the effects of income and relative prices within a panel of 32 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries throughout the 1995–2016 period. To this end, we employ second-generation panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests and panel data estimation techniques. Panel cointegration tests uncovered a long-run relationship between international tourism expenditure per adult, gross domestic product per adult, effective exchange rates adjusted relative prices and employment to adult population ratio. A particular implication of the result would be that the quality of employment by way of remuneration which is sufficient enough to sustain outbound tourism expenditure does not move in synchrony with workforce expansion. The failure of employment to be a significant determinant of long-run outbound tourism demand may have to do with economic and demographic factors in OECD countries as well as employment business cycles. Diminishing returns to employment, a general decline in the labour income share, a rising inequality of wage distribution among the working population due to relative adjustments in factor intensities as well as an aging population may have played contributory roles to this phenomenon. Therefore, tourism stakeholders should take note of median wage changes of possible departure countries in relation to destination costs when developing marketing frameworks for tourist locations. Moreover, reduction in unemployment rates is only indicative of short-run changes, implying that a significant impact on average tourism demand should not be expected unless average income also rises.

The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand

While the relationship between exchange rate risk and trading activity has been studied extensively, little attention has been paid to assessing exchange rate volatility in a travel demand model. This paper aims to examine the short- and long-run effects of real income, population, exchange rate, and exchange rate volatility on tourist flows from South Korea to Japan, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, and the US. To analyze the impacts of third-country exchange rate risk factors, this study takes into consideration two measures of real exchange rate volatility: the GARCH-based measure and the standard deviation of real exchange rates. The long-run results show that income growth in South Korea is driving the rising number of Korean outbound tourists, while real exchange rate has little impact on outbound tourism demand in South Korea. More importantly, the third-country effects of exchange rate volatility are found to be significant for the selected tourism destinations. An increase in third-country exchange rate risk tends to have a positive impact on Korean outbound tourism demand for the selected destinations, indicating that risk-averse Korean outbound tourists choose destinations where exchange rates are less volatile compared to destinations where they are more volatile. This study also finds evidence that Korean outbound tourists are less responsive to third-country exchange rate risk in the short run.

Wealth Effects of Housing and Stock Markets On Outbound Tourism

The effects of stock market wealth and housing wealth on the demand for outbound tourism by the residents of Singapore, while controlling for other important determinants for outbound tourism, are investigated. From the empirical results, the author concludes that there is weak evidence to support the presence of stock market wealth effect and strong evidence to support the presence of housing wealth effect on outbound tourism. Weak evidence of stock market wealth effect is observed because the model derived from Akaike information criterion does not find significant effect of stock market wealth, but the model derived from Schwartz criterion shows that positive stock market wealth effect is present. Strong evidence of housing wealth effect is observed because the models estimated with both criteria show that housing wealth has negative effect on such consumption. The importance of the government intervention in the public housing of Singapore that leads to such negative housing wealth effect is explained in the conclusion.

The ICT Impact on Inbound and Outbound Tourism Demand in the EU

Research question: This paper investigation whether a relationship exists between ICT as well as between the Internet and tourism demand (inbound and outbound) in EU. Motivation: Our goal was to explore if there exists a strong link between observed determinants. The paper draws on research of Garin-Munoz and Perez-Amaral (2011). Their research indicates the positive relationship between the use of Internet and travels abroad. As well, the paper is based on the research of Ramos and Rodrigues (2013), Bethapudi (2013) and Pulido-Fernandez, Cardenas-Garcua, & Carrukki-Hidalgo (2017). Idea: Because the ICT has a significant impact on tourism demand the core idea of this paper was to explore if there exists the strongest relationship between the use of Internet and outbound tourism demand than relationship between the use of Internet and outbound tourism demand. Data: Research information base has included the ITU 2016, Measuring the Information Society Report 2016, as well as the data about tourism expenditure and total population from Eurostat Database (European Commission, 2017). Tools: The following methods are used in the paper: regression and correlation analysis. Regression analysis has examined the impact of the ICT on the tourism demand. Correlation analysis has examined the relationship between the use of the Internet and tourism demand. Findings: Results of the correlation analyses indicate that there is not a statistically significant correlation between the level of development ICT and tourism expenditure per capita, while that there is a statistically significant correlation between the application of Internet and tourism expenditure per capita. The regression analysis indicates that subindexes of ICT Development Index ( IDI) influence on tourism expenditure per capita. It can be concluded that the ICT and the Internet presents one of the most important determinants of tourism demand. Contribution: In the paper special attention was paid to the ICT as well as Internet as the most important determinants of tourism expenditure on macro level.

Forecasting Chinese outbound tourist to Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand destinations: a study of state space approach

This paper aims to forecast the tourism demand of mainland Chinese residents with regard to visiting Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand (SMT) from 2018 to 2022, and examine the factors that influence outbound tourism demand. The empirical results show that income level, tourism price, and substitute price all have an impact on tourism demand, of which income level and substitution price have a positive impact on tourism arrivals; in contrast, tourism price has a negative effect. Afterward, based on the forecasted performance, the TVP-STSM model in state-space form is better than other benchmark models (Linear Regression model, ARIMA model, BSM model, and CSM model). Finally, this study finds the best model to forecast the number of tourists to SMT in the next 5 years. The results show that the largest increase among the three countries goes to Thailand, followed by Singapore and Malaysia; recommendations are also made on the forecasting of trends.

Demand Model of China’s Outbound Tourist

This research objective was to find out the impact of resident income, tourism prices, exchange rate, and bilateral trade in goods towards China's outbound tourism trips. This research used the data from research that done by Yi (2018) and used the China Statistical Yearbook to obtained bilateral trade volume and total number of domestic trips from 2006-2015. Panel data in multiple regression model was used to analyzed the outbound tourism demand in China. The results showed that all variables had significant influence partially towards China’s outbound tourist trips, except travel price. Simultaneously all variables had significant influence towards China's outbound tourist trips.

유가변화가 아웃바운드 관광수요에 미치는 영향 : 비대칭적 반응을 중심으로

유가변화가 아웃바운드 관광수요에 미치는 영향 : 비대칭적 반응을 중심으로

Does the Demographic Structure Affect Outbound Tourism Demand? A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

This study aims to examine the relationship between the demographic structure and outbound tourism demand using panel data from 72 countries and regions during the 2000-2014 period. A panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model is employed to prove that there is a nonlinear relationship between demographic factors and outbound tourism demand and that the demographic effects can vary under different income regimes. The empirical results indicate that the impacts of demographic factors on outbound tourism demand change significantly when income constraints are relaxed. Based on this premise, we can better understand the travel characteristics of different groups, which are subdivided according to different demographic factors.

"한국인의 일본 관광수요와 일본인의 한국 관광수요의 변동성 분석"

"한국인의 일본 관광수요와 일본인의 한국 관광수요의 변동성 분석"

A panel data-based analysis of factors influencing market demand for Chinese outbound tourism

ABSTRACTThis paper presents data on the top 50 outbound destinations for Chinese tourists from 2002 to 2013. The total number of Chinese tourists traveling to these 50 destinations accounts for 95.38% of outbound travelers from China. We built a dynamic panel data model to measure factors that influence market demand for Chinese outbound tourism. The results show that economic variables such as income, tourism prices, and exchange rates have a significant influence on outbound tourism volume. The effect of bilateral goods trade and leisure time significantly differ between the full sample and the two subsamples, whereas political stability of the destinations and special incidents in China have no significant impact on demand for outbound tourism. Based on these findings, this study proposes strategies to strengthen the management of China’s outbound tourism market.

Effect of air quality in the place of origin on outbound tourism demand: Disposable income as a moderator

Tourism is largely dependent on climate and weather, and thus climatic attributes are expected to alter decisions of tourists. Utilising transaction data from a leading online travel agent (OTA) in China, this study explores the impacts of air quality, a critical environmental indicator, on outbound tourism demand whilst considering the moderating effects of disposable income at the city level. Empirical results show that air quality in the place of origin creates a pushing effect as local outbound tourism demand increases as air quality deteriorates. This relationship is negatively moderated by local disposable income level. This study also identifies a delay effect of five days in the impacts of air quality on outbound tourism demand. The theoretical contributions and implications of these findings for the operation management of OTAs and tourism destinations are presented at the end of this study.

Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach

Abstract Tourism has been one of the fastest-growing sectors in the world. Especially developed countries have been major markets for tourism destinations over the decades. Furthermore, the outbound tourism demand in emerging markets has increased rapidly in recent years. This study aims to investigate the determinants of Turkey’s outbound tourism demand by using the data from 1960 to 2013. For this purpose, the Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Model is used as an empirical analysis. This model classifies the time period into different regimes in order to obtain more robust results. Finally, our findings show that Turkish citizens’ outbound visits have been influenced by income and the exchange rates.