Outbound Tourism Demand Modeling – Region Destination Approach: The Case of Vietnam’s Data

Abstract

ABSTRACT Although there have been several studies on international tourism demand, research on outbound tourism has not received as much attention, especially approaching destinations as a region (group of countries). This paper aims to establish outbound tourism demand modeling and determine the role of factors influencing this model. Using Vietnam’s data from 1995 to 2019, the study focuses on eleven main destination countries divided into three regions, namely Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and intercontinental. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ADLM) for panel data and robustness tests was deployed and shows that population size and income per capita of the source country are important factors that determine the size of the outbound tourism market. Moreover, traveling abroad remains a luxury service for Vietnamese people, especially to countries in Northeast Asia. Prices also affect outbound tourism demand, but most demand is inelastic by own and cross prices. In addition, the study also pinpoints the competing destinations and complementary destinations for overseas travel trips by Vietnamese people.