Optimistic Scenario Research Articles

Blended Wing Body Configuration for Hydrogen-Powered Aviation

Hydrogen aircraft have the potential to achieve more significant climate impact reductions at a lower cost than aircraft powered by biofuels or other drop-in sustainable aviation fuels. Nevertheless, even as a liquid, hydrogen requires four times more volume than kerosene to store the same energy. Companies and researchers have suggested that the blended wing body configuration is well-suited to hydrogen because it can efficiently store large fuel tanks. However, nobody has quantified this claim, at least publicly. We address this gap by comparing optimized kerosene and hydrogen versions of blended wing body and tube and wing aircraft. Our models predict that, with ambitious hydrogen tank technology assumptions, a hydrogen blended wing body has a 3.8% energy penalty compared to a kerosene blended wing body. In contrast, the energy penalty for a tube and wing is 5.1%. These results suggest that the blended wing body configuration is slightly better suited to hydrogen than a tube and wing. However, the conclusion breaks down under less optimistic scenarios where lightweight conformal liquid hydrogen tanks are unavailable. Nonetheless, the energy penalties of switching the two configurations to hydrogen have a similar order of magnitude. Any kerosene blended wing body fuel burn benefit over a tube and wing also applies to hydrogen versions. As a result, kerosene blended wing body technology developments, such as maturing the structural design of the noncircular pressurized passenger cabin, remain valuable for future hydrogen-powered aircraft.

Anopheles mosquitoes in Morocco: implication for public health and underlined challenges for malaria re-establishment prevention under current and future climate conditions.

The potential reappearance and/or expansion of vector-borne diseases is one of the terrifying issues awaiting humanity in the context of climate change. The presence of competent Anopheles vectors, as well as suitable environmental circumstances, may result in the re-emergence of autochthonous Malaria, after years of absence. In Morocco, international travel and migration movements from Malaria-endemic areas have recently increased the number of imported cases, raising awareness of Malaria's possible reintroduction. Using machine learning we developed model predictions, under current and future (2050) climate, for the prospective distribution of Anopheles claviger, Anopheles labranchiae, Anopheles multicolor, and Anopheles sergentii implicated or incriminated in Malaria transmission. All modelled species are expected to find suitable habitats and have the potential to become established in the northern and central parts of the country, under present-day conditions. Distinct changes in the distributions of the four mosquitoes are to be expected under climate change. Even under the most optimistic scenario, all investigated species are likely to acquire new habitats that are now unsuitable, placing further populations in danger. We also observed a northward and altitudinal shift in their distribution towards higher altitudes. Climate change is expected to expand the potential range of malaria vectors in Morocco. Our maps and predictions offer a way to intelligently focus efforts on surveillance and control programmes. To reduce the threat of human infection, it is crucial for public health authorities, entomological surveillance teams, and control initiatives to collaborate and intensify their actions, continuously monitoring areas at risk. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

University commuting during the COVID-19 pandemic: Changes in travel behaviour and mode preferences

One prominent change induced by the COVID-19 pandemic concerns the worldwide use of public transportation for commuting purposes. This study focused on university commuting in Italy by examining the propensity to change transport modes under different infection risk scenarios. Data were collected in 2020 through an online survey of college mobility conducted by the Italian University Network for Sustainable Development. Asking the respondents to consider both a pessimistic and an optimistic scenario, with respect to the risk odds of being infected, we followed a two-step approach to study the prospective travel habits of college users. First, we tested a logit model to estimate the propensity to abandon one's pre-COVID-19 commuting mode. Then, we investigated the factors influencing the choice of switching from public transportation to either cars or active modes by estimating a multinomial logit model. By exploiting the novelty of considering two risk scenarios, this study highlighted that, especially in the pessimistic case, the change to active modes was constrained by spatial aspects in favour of motorized vehicles. From a policy perspective, this COVID-19-based natural experiment advocates transportation authorities taking effective actions to ensure that, in case of emergencies, a modal shift would not benefit more-polluting transport means.

Cost accounting and economic competitiveness evaluation of photovoltaic power generation in China —— based on the system levelized cost of electricity

Accelerating the penetration of photovoltaics (PV) oriented renewables is a vital mainstay in climate mitigation. Along with continuous growth of PV generation in the power system, PV costs have been rapidly declining. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is commonly applied to cost accounting of energy, while neglecting the specific cost compositions of PV leads to an overly optimistic scenario. By integrating grid costs and balancing costs into conventional LCOE framework, a System LCOE (S-LCOE) model was constructed to evaluate the economic feasibility of PV generation, more accurately. The results revealed that all provincial S-LCOE of China's PV is currently higher than local desulfurized coal electricity price (DCEP). Based on the comparative analysis of provincial S-LCOE and DCEP, four regions with diverse economic competitiveness were identified. PV projects in Region I and Region II are considered to be potentially competitive comparing to thermal generation, in terms of environmental benefits and S-LCOE, especially in Guangdong, Jilin, and Hainan. Furthermore, by simulating the descent trajectory of S-LCOE, we estimate that China will achieve S-LCOE equal to DCEP in Region I as early as 2023, while it will be postponed to 2042 in Region Ⅳ at the latest, depending on different S-LCOE descent rates.

Susceptibility of dwarf chameleons to climate and land use change: a vulnerability framework for conservation planning

Climate and land use changes are eroding biodiversity globally, and reptiles are highlighted as being particularly susceptible. In South Africa, global changes threaten the persistence of an assemblage of dwarf chameleons (Bradypodion) located in a biodiversity hotspot. We used ecological niche modelling to assess the combined effect of climate change and habitat transformation on these species and assessed their susceptibility in a vulnerability framework under optimistic and pessimistic change scenarios. Although our models showed a gain in suitable climatic space for all coastal species in some scenarios, considerable losses were predicted for most species under the most pessimistic change scenarios. Bradypodion ngomeense, for example is predicted to incur a complete loss of climatic suitability by 2050. The vulnerability framework predicts inland species to be more adversely affected by climate change than coastal species. However, no species show resilience to the combined effects of climate change and habitat transformation. Our models predicted a loss of climatically suitable habitat for most species in protected areas. These findings highlight the importance of a protected area network design to remain a step ahead of these anticipated changes.

Uncertainty Quantification in Geostatistical Modelling of Saltwater Intrusion at a Coastal Aquifer System

Groundwater resources in Mediterranean coastal aquifers are under several threats including saltwater intrusion. This situation is exacerbated by the absence of sustainable management plans for groundwater resources. Management and monitoring of groundwater systems require an integrated approach and the joint interpretation of any available information. This work investigates how uncertainty can be integrated within the geo-modelling workflow when creating numerical three-dimensional aquifer models with electrical resistivity borehole logs, geostatistical simulation and Bayesian model averaging. Multiple geological scenarios of electrical resistivity are created with geostatistical simulation by removing one borehole at a time from the set of available boreholes. To account for the spatial uncertainty simultaneously reflected by the multiple geostatistical scenarios, Bayesian model averaging is used to combine the probability distribution functions of each scenario into a global one, thus providing more credible uncertainty intervals. The proposed methodology is applied to a water-stressed groundwater system located in Crete that is threatened by saltwater intrusion. The results obtained agree with the general knowledge of this complex environment and enable sustainable groundwater management policies to be devised considering optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

Policy for handling air pollution in Jakarta: Study using System Dynamics Simulation Models

Air pollution in Jakarta has become a severe concern in the last four months. IQAir, in August 2023, revealed that the level of air pollution had reached 161 points on the Air Pollution Standard Index (APSI). The negative impact on society has placed air pollution as a concern for environmental safety and survival in danger. This condition will encourage the development of a national policy agenda to integrate environmental welfare through various energy efficiency channels. This research analyzes the relationship between air pollutant elements that can reduce air quality. The analysis includes pollutant intensity measured by APSI per unit of pollutant as a measure of efficiency. The aim is to observe energy use, which causes an increase in pollutant levels. This research utilizes dynamic system modeling to produce relationships between parameters to produce factors that cause pollution. The parameters used are motorized vehicles, waste burning in landfills, industry, and power plants. The results of historical behavioral tests and statistical suitability tests show that the behavior is suitable for the short and long term. The simulation results show that the pollution level will worsen by the end of 2027, a hazardous condition for society. The optimistic scenario simulation model proposes immediate counter-measures to reduce pollution to 45.01, the ideal condition. To accelerate improvements in air quality, the Government can plan policies to reduce the use of coal by power plants and industry, as well as the use of electric motorized vehicles, resulting in an ideal reduction in pollution by 2024. In conclusion, pollution can be reduced effectively if the Government firmly implements policies to maintain that air quality remains stable below 50 points.

Projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution range of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil.

Climate change is a global concern, with far-reaching implications for biodiversity and ecosystems. Understanding impact on species distribution is crucial for effective conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to evaluate the projected effects of climate change on the potential distribution of Manihot species endemic to Northeast Brazil and estimate the presence of climate suitability within protected areas in the future. We used ecological niche models to assess the potential distribution of 11 endemic species, providing predictions of current and future scenarios using an optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenario. The results revealed that in the optimistic scenario, 45% of the species may experience a partial reduction in their potential distribution range by 2100, and this percentage increases to 54% in the pessimistic scenario. Other species, on the other hand, will increase their potential distribution. The climatically suitable area for most species will be inserted in some protected areas, but species with limited current distribution and decreasing potential range must be prioritized for conservation. This study provides valuable information about the future potential distribution of endemic species of Manihot.

Urban Sustainability: Spatial distribution and ecological niche modelling of Brachytrupes membranaceus under climatic incidence in Kinshasa, DR. Congo

Species distribution modeling has become a very popular tool for anticipation and decision-making in biological resource conservation. This study aims to assess changes in the future distribution of Brachytrupes membranaceus habitats in Kinshasa between 2055 and 2100.\nThree variables contributed most to the model: rainfall in the driest month (38.4%), soil (28.9%) and rainfall in the coldest quarter (13.9%). Currently, 89.3% of Kinshasa\'s surface area is highly favorable to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus, compared with 69.5% and 47.5% in 2055 (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively) and 61.5% and 39.2% in 2100 (optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively), mainly in the urban zone. From the current to the future climate, the areas potentially favorable to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus shift from the periphery to the urban center of Kinshasa (for all scenarios for the years 2055 and 2100).\nThis shows that threats to the development and conservation of B. membranaceus are mainly due to anthropogenic activities (anarchic construction and slash-and-burn agriculture) and less to climatic/environmental factors (rainfall and soil). These results contribute to Sustainable Development Goals 11 and 15 by 2030.

Lowering the reactor breakeven requirements for proton–boron 11 fusion

Recently, it has been shown that altering the natural collisional power flow of the proton–boron 11 (pB11) fusion reaction can significantly reduce the Lawson product of ion density and confinement time required to achieve ignition. However, these products are still onerous—on the order of 7×1015 cm−3 s under the most optimistic scenarios. Fortunately, a breakeven fusion power plant does not require an igniting plasma, but rather a reactor that produces more electrical power than it consumes. Here, we extend the existing 0D power balance analysis to check the conditions on power plant breakeven. We find that even for the base thermonuclear reaction, modern high-efficiency thermal engines should reduce the Lawson product to 1.2×1015 cm−3 s. We then explore the impact of several potential improvements, including fast proton heating, alpha power capture, direct conversion, and efficient heating. We find that such improvements could reduce the required Lawson product by a further order of magnitude, bringing aneutronic fusion to target ITER ion densities and confinement times.

Ecophysiological responses of bromelias in the restinga in simulated climate change scenarios.

We investigated the ecophysiological responses of the bromeliads Aechmea nudicaulis and Vriesea procera, seeking to assess their suitability to survive in a climate change scenario (optimistic scenario RCP 2.6 of the IPCC, 2021) in a Restinga environment. To carry out this investigation, we used open-top chambers (OTC). During a period of nine months (June 2022 to February 2023), the bromeliads A. nudicaulis and V. procera were subjected to the following treatments: treatment T: plants transplanted to the environmental conditions of the bare sand of the restinga and subjected to the microclimatic conditions of the OTC's; control C: plants transplanted to the environmental conditions of the bare sand of the restinga. The ecophysiological variables height, rosette diameter, relative water content, specific leaf area and total weight of the plants were evaluated. In addition, dead plants were counted. The OTC's showed an average increase in temperature and VPD (Vapor Pressure Deficit) of 1.6°C and 0.5 Kpa, respectively, and an average reduction in RH (relative humidity) of 5.3%. The results of this study indicated that the increase in local temperature that occurred between the sixth and seventh months evaluated (November and December) created limiting conditions that exceeded the tolerance capacity of the bromeliads studied. Furthermore, the climatic conditions of the OTCs intensified the damage that occurred in the plants, verified here by the reductions in the values ​​of the ecophysiological attributes evaluated in the bromeliads studied. In addition, the high mortality rate (above 50%) reinforces the idea that the climatic conditions of the OTC's induced the bromeliads studied to a senescence process. Therefore, these results are important, as they indicate that even the most optimistic climate change scenario (IPCC 2021 RCP 2.6) can harm the growth and development of these bromeliads, which are essential for the structure and functioning of Restinga communities.

ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИЙ РОЗВИТОК ПОСТКОНФЛІКТНИХ СУСПІЛЬСТВ: ДОСВІД КРАЇН КОЛИШНЬОЇ ЮГОСЛАВІЇ

The article shows the demographic losses of the states of the former Yugoslavia in the wars of the 1990s and analyzes the trends of the post-war demographic development of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Slovenia, and the partially recognized state of Kosovo. Before the start of the wars, the second demographic transition was largely completed in these countries, and the birth rate approached the average European value. There was no significant reduction in the total birth rate in the countries of the Balkan region during armed conflicts. Only in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, there was a noticeable decrease in the number of births due to large migratory losses of reproductive cohorts. The impact of the war was manifested in the accelerated transformation of the age-related birth rate, there was a decrease in the early birth rate against the background of an aging motherhood. It was established that in the post-war societies of the Balkan region, except Serbia, there was no compensatory increase in the birth rate. The birth rate in the countries of the former Yugoslavia changed synchronously with those European states that experienced deep economic crises or geopolitical transformations, in particular, joined the EU. Structural and demographic transformations in post-conflict societies are studied. It was found that during the war, the rate of decline in the share of the child population and the rate of demographic aging were higher than the European average. The long-term dynamics of the age structure of the population of the modern post-conflict countries of the former Yugoslavia do not differ in the main parameters from other European countries. It was established that the main factor in reducing the population of the region is forced external migration. The largest specific weight of emigrants from the number of permanent population is in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In these countries, unresolved ethnopolitical problems destabilize the development of society in general, negatively affect the processes of natural reproduction, and act as a deterrent to the return of migrants. Taking into account the analogies of the post-conflict societies of the Balkan region, as well as taking into account the crisis parameters of the demographic situation before the full-scale war of 2022, the scenarios of the demographic development of Ukraine are built. They are due exclusively to probable migration trends. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the demographic development of Ukraine are determined by several external and internal factors. Recommendations regarding the basic principles of the policy of re-emigration of Ukrainian refugees have been provided.

ВЛИЯНИЕ ЦИФРОВЫХ ФИНАНСОВЫХ ТЕХНОЛОГИЙ НА ИННОВАЦИОННЫЕ РЕШЕНИЯ В ФИНАНСОВОМ СЕКТОРЕ

The article deals with the influence of financial technologies in the digital economy and possible innovative solutions in the field of finance and financial services. The article considers a methodological approach to the implementation of blockchain technology in the Russian payment system “Mir”. It substantiates the main stages of introducing blockchain technology into the activities of that system. Proposals are made out for selecting the optimal partner for the development and implementation of blockchain for the “Mir” payment system. In particular it was proposed and justified how to introduce blockchain technologies into the work of the “Mir” payment system. Project proposals were generated and the project for introducing blockchain technologies into the work of the “Mir” payment system was justified, followed by calculation of the economic effect from the practical realization of project proposals. Economic forecast of the project introduction under realistic, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios was developed.

INFORMATION PROCESSES IN MODERN ENTERPRISE MANAGEMENT IN THE SYSTEM OF VIRTUAL ECONOMY

The developed methodological recommendations regarding the formation of a range of scenarios for the development of industrial enterprise activity, taking into account the indicators of enterprise management information processes based on the construction of management scenarios allow to explore the activity of the enterprise comprehensively. The proposed and implemented recommendations during the evaluation of information management processes of the enterprise, combine the scenario approach and the method of correlation-regression analysis, as well as they allow to determine the impact of integrated indicators of labor, manufacturing and financial sphere on the indicator of ensuring the management effectiveness regarding information processes using different scenarios: pessimistic, neutral, optimistic. An important step in the evaluation process of the enterprise’s activity is to determine the dominant in different development scenarios factors which influence the effectiveness of the information process of industrial enterprise management. Thus, during the pessimistic and neutral scenario, enterprise development is possible by increasing the usage efficiency of production means, such as labor and production funds. During the transformation, process from a pessimistic to a neutral scenario, the role of material incentives increases, in particular, the size of wages. In terms of the optimistic development scenario of enterprise, the priority of the solvency factor is increasing. Identified dominant factors make it possible to influence the state of the enterprise and reduce its sensitivity to changes. The developed methodical approach to the evaluation of the enterprise’s information management process effectiveness is aimed at determining the critical levels of indicators, compliance with these indicators will improve the efficiency of the information management process of an industrial enterprise in case of gradual implementation of its stages. Implementation of the proposed methodological approach based on determination of indicators` limiting values allows to make the transition of the enterprise from a pessimistic development scenario to a neutral one, as well as from a neutral one to an optimistic, which in turn provides an opportunity to determine the target development parameters of the enterprise depending on the current state of its activity.

Dark future for a black salamander: effects of climate change and conservation implications for an endemic alpine amphibian

Climate change is threatening several montane species across the world, including a large number of endemics, needing the development of forward-looking conservation strategies to foster their future survival. In this context, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) represent a useful method to forecast changes in species’ habitat suitability under different scenarios of global warming, often advising conservation frameworks with credible, defensible and repeatable information. In this paper, we estimate the environmental and bioclimatic suitability for an endemic mountain amphibian (Salamandra lanzai) in the western European Alps through an SDM approach, considering both current and future scenarios, to address short- and long-term management and conservation actions, and to update the current IUCN extinction risk assessment. The ensemble model forecasts predict a dramatic decline of the climatically suitable area for the Lanza’s alpine salamander in the next 20–40 years, even considering an optimistic CO2 emissions scenario, leading to a theoretical extinction of this species in 2100 in case the worst global warming prediction will be actualised. This underlines the urgent need for up-to-date conservation and management strategies to ensure the successful mitigation of climate change effects on S. lanzai, especially by adapting and improving the network of protected areas, immediately removing additional threats and identifying possible management actions able to increase fine-scale habitat suitability and connectivity among populations. In addition, a significant range contraction in the future has to be considered when assessing the extinction risk for this species, possibly exacerbating the effect of other threatening factors, such as the spread of lethal pathogens. Keywords: Salamandra lanzai, ensemble models, environmental suitability, bioclimatic suitability, future projections

Особенности естественного движения населения в регионе Центрального федерального округа. Прогноз показателей.

The analysis made it possible to highlight the main features of the natural population movement in the Kostroma region as a region of the Central Federal District: depopulation of the population is observed – a long-term natural population decline, while the number of deaths significantly exceeds the number of births; natural decline was noted among both the urban and rural population of the region. Using predictive models without taking into account changes in the demographic situation during COVID‑19, it was calculated that in the Kostroma region we can expect an increase in the number of births per 1000 people from 8.5 in 2020 to 9.9 in 2024 (optimistic script); reduction to 8.9 in 2024 (according to the pessimistic scenario); growth to 9.4 in 2024 (according to the average forecast). In addition, a decrease in the number of deaths per 1000 population is calculated from 16.7 in 2020 to 11.7 in 2024 (according to the optimistic scenario); reduction to 13.0 in 2024 (according to the pessimistic scenario); to 12.3 in 2024 (according to the average forecast).

Реалізація інвестиційних проєктів на засадах партнерства влади, бізнесу та суспільства в Україні: сучасні тенденції та прогнозування розвитку

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state and prospects for the development of the partnership of government, business and society on the basis of public-private partnership (PPP) in Ukraine for the period 2024-2030, in particular in the context of the country's post-war recovery. The paper examines the key trends in the implementation of PPP contracts for the period from 2018 to 2023, reveals serious problems in the implementation of projects, in particular, a decrease in the number of implemented contracts and an increase in the share of unimplemented and terminated contracts. The influence of military actions on the PPP implementation process is analyzed and the need to adapt management mechanisms to new conditions is emphasized. Special attention is paid to the role of PPPs in the recovery of critical sectors such as education, health care, transport and others, as well as opportunities to attract investments. Three main scenarios for the development of the partnership between government, business and society for the coming years are considered: optimistic, basic and pessimistic. It was determined that the PPP has significant potential for positive change, but success will depend on economic stability, political decisions and the effectiveness of legislative changes. For the purpose of more accurate forecasting, the Monte Carlo method was applied, which made it possible to obtain detailed forecasts of PPP development under three scenarios. The simulation results showed that the optimistic scenario predicts a high potential for project development and a significant amount of investment, while the pessimistic scenario reflects possible difficulties and limited growth. The importance of strategic planning and adaptation to possible changes for effective management of investment projects on the basis of partnership between government, business and society in conditions of uncertainty is justified.

Screening Life Cycle Assessment comparing One-step and Two-step Injection Molding Compounding using Conservative and Optimistic Scenarios

One-step injection molding compounding (IMC) is an innovative process to manufacture short-fiber-reinforced polymer composites. The aim of combining compounding and injection molding into one process is to enhance component quality and minimize environmental impacts. In this study, a screening Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is conducted to evaluate and compare the environmental impacts of the IMC process with standard two-step manufacturing. Two scenarios for the IMC are considered, each differing in terms of machinery requirements, energy consumption, and material usage. Mechanically recycled polypropylene and glass fiber are used, and considered in the LCA employing a simple cut-off approach without awarding credits for substituting (primary) materials. The functional unit is the composite produced via the respective process, assuming equal functionality. Inventory data are obtained from initial experiments, literature, and the ecoinvent database. The impact assessment method selected is ReCiPe2016. Results indicate that the environmental performance improvement achieved by the IMC compared to the reference process is minimal in the conservative scenario where energy and material usage can be reduced but machinery usage is increased. However, in an optimistic scenario, the IMC can reduce the impacts of composite manufacturing by 34 %. The contributions at the midpoint level vary, and metal usage and energy consumption are the main contributors in all scenarios. A variation of the energy source for manufacturing shows the dependency of environmental impacts of components produced in both processes on the geographical location of production and its electricity supply. Methodological choices, such as the definition of the functional unit and modeling of recycled materials, have a large influence on LCA results, and alternative options are discussed.

LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS FOR END-OF-LIFE MANAGEMENT OF LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES FROM SMARTPHONES AND LAPTOPS

Recycling lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) is a solution to minimise the environmental problems caused by the consumption of natural resources and the generation of hazardous waste. This paper aims to assess the potential environmental impacts and benefits of four scenarios for recycling LIBs from smartphones and laptops using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The methodological approach followed four steps: i) scenario modelling representing the current and future situations of LIBs End-of-Life (EoL) management from smartphones and laptops; ii) estimating smartphones, laptops and respective LIBs waste generation; iii) mapping representative recycling options; and iv) assessment of potential environmental impacts using LCA with 16 ILCD midpoint categories. The results revealed that hydrometallurgical recycling in Brazil could be less harmful than pyrohydrometallurgical recycling in Europe in 12 impact categories. The benefits of recycling are mainly of Co and Ni recovery. Results of scenarios indicate that the more optimistic scenario, which includes expanding Reverse Logistics to 50% of collection, internal recycling to 75%, and reducing of LIBs waste sent to landfills in 44%, had the best environmental performance in all 13 impacts categories. For the Climate change category, scenario 4 presents net environmental benefits of -1.83E+05 kgCO2eq while scenarios 1, 2 and 3 do not present a net environmental benefit. Scenarios assessment shows that more significant environmental benefits are achieved when the formal collection rate is increased, and the less impactful technology option makes the recovery of materials. These results can help decision-makers promote the management and recycling more sustainable of LIBs waste.

Ukraine's Banking System During Post-War Reconstruction: Challenges and Development Pathways

The article focuses on analyzing the problems and prospects of rebuilding the banking system in the post-war period. The author examines various scenarios for the development of Ukraine's banking sector: in the optimistic scenario, the recovery of the banking sector is supported by international investments and reforms, in the pessimistic scenario, political and economic instability poses challenges, and in the realistic scenario, a comprehensive approach and international support are required for the recovery and modernization of the banking system. The author also identifies key issues and suggests solutions, as well as outlines general prospects for recovery. The article states that the successful recovery of the banking system is of key importance for the economic recovery of the entire country. Prolonged political and economic instability can complicate this process - therefore, it is imperative to develop a balanced strategy and establish cooperation of all stakeholders. It is emphasized that banks play an important role in providing financial support to enterprises and the population, as well as in ensuring the stability of the financial system. It has been proven that in the context of Ukraine's application to join the EU, the banking sector of our country's economy also becomes the object of increased attention and reforms, because it must support all the standards and requirements of European banking systems and ensure a high level of financial stability. Efforts to ensure the stability and reliability of the banking sector should be accompanied by measures of international diplomatic cooperation, which will help reduce risks and restore confidence in the financial system of Ukraine.