Operational Planning Research Articles

Cooperative operational planning of multi-microgrid distribution systems with a case study

Clustering historical electricity consumption data is very important for creating representative demand profiles for the planning and operation of the power grids. This paper investigates a multi-dimensional framework for data clustering, which takes scattering and separation metrics, as well as the number of clusters into account. A combination of wavelet mutation with the Invasive Weed Optimization (IWO) method for clustering features is proposed. One notable advantage of the IWO method over other metaheuristic optimization algorithms is its ability to dynamically adapt the number of weed colonies during the search process, resulting in improved exploration and exploitation of the search space. The proposed strategy is applied to cluster the electricity consumption data from a large municipal government center in Perth, Western Australia. The suggested method is then evaluated by comparing it with the well-known method in the literature, namely, the k-means technique. After the data clustering, the obtained results are implemented in the design of a multi-microgrid system under two different scenarios of cooperative and noncooperative modes. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, the proposed method is implemented on the operational planning of a real multi-microgrid distribution system in Western Australia using linear programming to take the advantage of the mathematical-based solvers. After performing some investigations, the cooperative mechanism, where the microgrids have participated in supplying the demand of microgrids was found to yield to greater operational and investment cost minimimzation. In terms of numerical comparison, the total cost in the cooperative model is 6.5% lower than that in a non-cooperative situation.

Conceptualizing Forest Operations Planning and Management Using Principles of Functional Complex Systems Science to Increase the Forest’s Ability to Withstand Climate Change

The sustainable management of forest resources is greatly influenced by forest operations (FO). Interactions between humans and nature describe how people engage with and are impacted by the natural world. As we enter the Anthropocene epoch, we are being compelled to reevaluate our past and present methods of managing and planning our forest operations in order to find new ones that are more adaptable and successful at addressing the growing unpredictability resulting from accelerating global change. We briefly discuss the goals and constraints of the prior and current management and planning principles for forest operations in this study, focusing on how these principles have evolved on a worldwide scale. We then propose a promising idea, such as managing forest operations as complex adaptive systems and approaches based on resilience and sustainable use of forest resources, in order to achieve the necessary economic, social, and ecological goals. An in-depth understanding of the ecological, economic, and social factors that influence forest resilience is necessary for planning and managing forest operations efficiently. The proposed strategy combines the effectiveness of forest operations with a functional, complex network approach in order to manage forests for the Anthropocene.

A survey of the NHS reporting radiographer workforce in England

Introduction: At present there is no national register of the population size and scope of reporting radiographers in England. This makes operational workforce and succession planning for sustainable healthcare services in the National Health Service England (NHSE) difficult, affecting implementing NHSE policies and priorities such as 50% of X-rays reported by reporting radiographers and decreasing reporting Turnaround Times (TATs). This survey aimed to establish the workforce population employed as reporting radiographers in NHSE. Methods: An online anonymous seven question survey was distributed on social media and at the UK Imaging and Oncology Congress. Participant criteria included NHSE radiology staff (diagnostic radiographer, reporting radiographer, radiology manager, imaging superintendent modality lead, consultant radiologist, etc.) or a student diagnostic radiographer working within an NHSE trust. The survey recorded the participant's NHSE region (North Western, North Eastern and Yorkshire, Midlands, East of England, London, South Eastern and South Western regions), Integrated Care Systems (ICS), NHSE Trust, hospital, the amount of reporting radiographers and trainees employed, the Agenda for Change (AfC) job banding and imaging modality reported (X-ray, CT, MRI, NM, PET, DEXA). The data analysis applied descriptive statistics for estimating patterns and trends in the distrubtion of data (English region, AfC banding and imaging modality). Results: Responses were received from all seven of the NHSE regions (n=36/43 ICSs). The data demonstrated a larger workforce in the north of England than in the south, with employment at a range of AfC bandings from 5-8. The imaging modalities reported by radiographers in England demonstrated X-ray (n=34), the most reported imaging examination by region, and Nuclear Medicine (n=3) the least, with evidence of clinical reporting for CT (n=20), MRI (n=18), DEXA (n=16), Mammography (n=13) and fluoroscopy (n=12) being completed by radiographers in England. Conclusion: The findings for England (n=704 reporters; n=142 trainees) provide an estimate based on the response rate of the current reporting radiographer workforce across the NHSE regions, and their contribution to the skills mix radiology reporting service delivery. It is hoped future surveys will provide ongoing workforce estimates for the diagnostic radiographer reporting workforce in NHSE to support workforce transformation and sustainability plans for the radiography profession and to meet government healthcare targets and priorities.

Optimization Model for Selection of the Offshore Fleet Structure

Over the past century, with an accelerated increase in world energy demand, oil remained the most intriguing energy source, while oil exploration and production evolved from an onshore to an offshore exploration and production facility. In logistic and operational planning, the supply of offshore installations is the primary dependent of offshore supply vessels (OSVs). OSVs are classified into two main specialized groups, Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) and Platform Supply Vessels (PSVs). The establishment and maintenance of offshore oil installations require considerable financial resources for the hire of OSVs, which increases the oil exploration and production operator’s overall budget. Planning the offshore fleet structure aims to reduce expenses and increase the utilization of OSVs. This work will analyze the actual data of the southwestern African offshore market based on 24/7 working time and the use analysis of marine activities to define the parameters of the offshore fleet structure. The research results will be used to develop a methodology for modeling the optimal infrastructure of the offshore fleet. With statistical data of all support vessels’ activities and the use of linear programming (LP), it is possible to determine the vessel’s employment pattern and the optimal fleet structure by type and number of OSVs.

Collaborative Exploration of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance for NWS Forecast Operations

Abstract The operational utility of the NOAA National Severe Storm Laboratory’s storm-scale probabilistic Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) was examined across the watch-to-warning time frame in a virtual NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) experiment. Over four weeks, 16 NWS forecasters from local Weather Forecast Offices, the Storm Prediction Center, and the Weather Prediction Center participated in simulated forecasting tasks and focus groups. Bringing together multiple NWS entities to explore new guidance impacts on the broader forecast process is atypical of prior NOAA HWT experiments. This study therefore provides a framework for designing such a testbed experiment, including methodological and logistical considerations necessary to meet the needs of both local office and national center NWS participants. Furthermore, this study investigated two research questions: 1) How do forecasters envision WoFS guidance fitting into their existing forecast process? and 2) How could WoFS guidance be used most effectively across the current watch-to-warning forecast process? Content and thematic analyses were completed on flowcharts of operational workflows, real-time simulation interactions, and focus group activities and discussions. Participants reported numerous potential applications of WoFS, including improved coordination and consistency between local offices and national centers, enhanced hazard messaging, and improved operations planning. Challenges were also reported, including the knowledge and training required to incorporate WoFS guidance effectively and forecasters’ trust in new guidance and openness to change. The solutions identified to these challenges will take WoFS one step closer to transition, and in the meantime, improve the capabilities of WoFS for experimental use within the operational community. Significance Statement A first-of-its-kind experiment brought together forecasters from local weather forecast offices and national centers to examine the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System’s (WoFS’s) potential applications across watch-to-warning scales. This experiment demonstrated that WoFS can provide great benefit to forecasters, though a few challenges remain. Benefits provided by WoFS frequently overlap roles and responsibilities at local and national scales, suggesting the potential for enhanced cross-office collaboration. The challenges anticipated for WoFS operational use are far fewer than the benefits, and some solutions to these challenges are now being implemented. Finally, the mixed-methods experimental framework described herein also provides guidance for future collaborative experiments in testbed research that examine impacts of new technologies across NWS entities.

Service Networks With Open Routing and Procedurally Rational Customers

Self-interested customers’ form of reasoning and its consequences for system performance affect the planning decisions of service providers. We study procedurally rational customers—customers who make decisions based on a sample containing anecdotes of the system times experienced by other customers. Specifically, we consider procedurally rational customers in two-station service networks with open routing, that is, customers can choose the order in which to visit the stations. Because some actions may be less represented in the population, a given customer may not succeed in obtaining anecdotes about all possible actions. We introduce a novel sampling framework that extends the procedurally rational framework to incorporate the possibility that a customer may not receive any anecdotes for one of the actions; in this case, the customer uses a prior point estimate in lieu of the missing anecdotes. Under this framework, we study the procedurally rational equilibrium in open routing. We show first that as the sample size grows large, customers’ estimates become more accurate, and the procedurally rational equilibrium converges to the fully rational equilibrium (which is also socially optimal). We then uncover two main findings. First, we obtain bounds on the distance between the procedurally rational and fully rational equilibrium, aiding operational planning and showing the rate of convergence to the fully rational outcome as the sample size of anecdotes of each individual customer grows. Second, if customers obtain anecdotes of both actions with high probability, then the equilibrium will approximate the fully rational outcome, despite the sampling error inherent to procedural rationality.

Assessment of unintended pregnancies, contraception, and abortion in Botswana.

Botswana has a policy of contraception for all that is delivered through a rights-based family planning program. The program combines a "rights-based family planning approach" with "supportive policies for contraception," and "a commitment to promote equitable access to modern contraception, and expand availability, method mix and uptake of modern contraceptive methods for all women and girls." However, abortion is legally restricted up to 16 weeks of pregnancy provided that provisions of Section160-162 of the Botswana Penal Code Amendment Act 1991 are met, and that the termination of pregnancy is carried out by a registered medical practitioner in a health facility approved for the purpose. In 2020, the Ministry of Health and Wellness, Botswana, in collaboration with United Nations Population Fund and World Health Organization, conducted a strategic assessment of unintended pregnancies, contraception, unsafe abortion, and abortion services in Botswana. A consensus operational plan to address these issues was developed during a national stakeholder meeting in Gaborone, Botswana. The consensus reached was to avert unintended pregnancies, improve access to modern contraception, and open nationwide discussions around abortion in the community to enable positive change and decrease maternal morbidity and mortality from unsafe abortion. This article describes the findings of the assessment and outlines the foundation for new or modified services or practices to be developed and pilot tested.

Fundamental principles of planning innovative activities at the enterprise

This article defines and establishes the essence of the concept of "innovation activity" and also identifies the stages of the innovation process, which are four in total. The types of planning and peculiarities of their application to innovation activities are considered. It is determined that the types of plans differ in terms of objectives, subject matter, level, content and planning period. According to the target orientation, there are strategic, current and operational planning of innovations. Strategic planning as an element of strategic management is to define the mission of the organization at each stage of its life cycle, to form a system of goals and a strategy for behavior in the innovation markets. The author summarizes that the main condition for the formation of the innovation market is the volume of investments in both scientific and scientific and technical activities. Given the 3-5-year duration of the innovation process, long-term and medium-term investments play a key role, providing financing for innovations throughout their entire life cycle It is determined that innovation activity is aimed at the practical use of scientific, scientific and technical results and intellectual potential in order to obtain new or radically improved products, production technology and satisfaction of effective consumer demand for high-quality goods and services, and improvement of social services.

Masalah Dalam Perencanaan Organisasi Dan Kontrol Operasi Pemasaran Global

This research discusses organizational planning and control of global marketing operations in the context of Company (G), an information technology company with marketing operations in Indonesia. This research data illustrates how the company manages organizational planning and control of its global marketing operations. Using qualitative research methods, using a literature study approach. This research obtains an in-depth understanding of how Company (G) plans and controls its global marketing operations. The research results show that this company has a matrix organizational structure that allows coordination between global and local marketing teams, as well as policy adjustments to local marketing strategies according to local market needs and preferences. The use of integrated operational control systems and information technology is key in monitoring and managing the company's global marketing performance. However, Company (G) is also faced with various challenges, including coordination between global and local teams, adapting marketing strategies to different local needs, human resource management, compliance with local regulations, and risk management. By considering these challenges and leveraging the advantages of information technology, Company (G) can improve its global marketing performance and remain a relevant player in the information technology industry in the global market.

Component of the economic development of dairy processing enterprises

The article's purpose is a theoretical justification of the place of the financial component in the system of ensuring the economic development of milk processing enterprises. The scientific article is devoted to studying the financial component of the economic development of milk processing enterprises and the study of financial instruments and strategies that contribute to increasing their efficiency and sustainability. The research method is the determination of factors affecting the financial stability of milk processing enterprises and the development of recommendations for optimizing financial management. As a component of economic development, financial resources are significant for enterprises, as this is the amount of their own, borrowed, and borrowed resources, the effective use of which determines a stable financial condition: solvency, financial stability, and liquidity. The dependence of milk processing enterprises on market factors, such as prices for raw materials and products, consumer demand, and competition, has been established, so financial results are determined by the ability to adapt to changes in the market. It is noted that milk processing enterprises have prospects for development in growing demand for dairy products. However, their successful functioning largely depends on financial planning and effective use of resources. Therefore, financial stability is essential to the successful functioning of milk processing enterprises. Investments in modern equipment and technologies also play a vital role in developing dairy enterprises, thanks to which enterprises increase productivity, reduce costs, and improve product quality. The structure of financial resources of milk processing enterprises is considered, and the factors determining the formation and functioning of financial support in conditions of instability and market changes are determined. In this regard, complexity and systematicity are leading characteristics of financial potential. It is noted that effective financial management, which includes operational accounting, budget planning, cost control, and rational use of resources, is an essential component of the development of milk processing enterprises. Keywords: enterprise, economic development, dairy industry, financial resources, development potential.

Participatory approaches to programme design, planning andearly implementation: experiences from a safe surgery project inNigeria.

MOMENTUM Safe Surgery in Family Planning and Obstetrics is a global project that strengthens surgical ecosystems through partnership with country institutions. In Nigeria, the project implements in Bauchi, Ebonyi, Kebbi and Sokoto states and the Federal Capital Territory, focusing on surgical obstetrics, holistic fistula care and female genital mutilation/cutting prevention and care. The project utilized participatory approaches during its design, planning and early implementation phases. During the design phase, the project employed a co-creation process featuring a desk review, key informant interviews and stakeholder workshops at community, facility, and government levels to actively listen to, identify and incorporate local perspectives on surgical ecosystem gaps and priorities. Initial findings, shared at state- and national-level workshops, helped collectively identify and prioritize context-specific interventions. The resulting co-created workplan features interventions to strengthen surgical services based on the National Surgical, Obstetrics, Anaesthesia and Nursing Plan (NSOANP). Upon workplan approval, the planning phase involved meeting with each State Ministry of Health (MOH) to prioritize workplan interventions for implementation and to define the finer details needed to drive early implementation processes. Preliminary achievements during early implementation include state commitments to include a costed facility NSOANP in 2023 annual operational plans, mitigation of health facility staffing shortages and review of national fistula and surgical Health Management Information System indicator data flow and advocacy to the Federal MOH resulting in improved fistula data quality and availability. Well-established state and national systems, structures, policies and guidelines enable this programming approach. Since communication between institutional actors is often limited, these approaches necessitate building and maintaining relationships and knowledge-sharing, which requires a significant up-front time investment that must be balanced with donor/partner desires for rapid deliverables. Linking different actors within the health system together through co-creation/co-implementation represents a crucial step in building sustainable country ownership and oversight for surgical ecosystems strengthening interventions.

Implementasi Fungsi Manajemen dalam Proses Bongkar Muat PT. PBM Adipurusa

Maritime transportation is the backbone of the transportation system of all archipelagic countries such as Indonesia, therefore ports play a very important and strategic role. One of the functions of the port is as a transportation chain or meeting point for transportation modes which are actually played by the terminal. Daily activities in a loading and unloading company certainly require a chart or framework that contains the flow of activities including planning, organizing, mobilizing and evaluating. Seeing the urgency of the importance of managing management functions in organizations, it is necessary to study more deeply how management functions are managed in loading and unloading companies. Qualitative research method with descriptive analysis. Therefore, planning begins before the ship arrives, preparing loading and unloading equipment, operational planning meetings, permit applications, equipment preparation and field preparation. Organizing is done by managing the human resources available in the company. The implementation includes activities for handling container unloading and handling container cargo. Control is carried out by making reports which include operations per shift and reports on the realization of demolition. In conclusion, the management function carried out by PT. PBM Adipurusa has been running well.

Long-term cost planning of data-driven wind-storage hybrid systems

—To address the long-term cost planning problem accurately, typically a significant number of formulas are required. However, this increases computational complexity and limits the generalizability of the approach to practical problems. To overcome these challenges, this study adopts a data-driven approach that considers uncertainties to evaluate the long-term cost planning problem accurately for wind power generation with hybrid energy storage. A method for predicting wind power output is proposed using temporal convolutional networks to handle long-term uncertainties. Additionally, an instantaneous phase-synchronous wind power output feature extraction method based on Hilbert transform theory is introduced to capture time-series fluctuation characteristics and address short-term uncertainties. Furthermore, the long-term operational costs and planning of high-percentage new energy wind farms with hybrid energy storage are discussed by combining the wind power output characteristics with the operating characteristics and lifespan of hybrid energy storage devices. The experimental results demonstrate the significant advantages of the deep learning probabilistic prediction model combined with wind power feature extraction. The algorithm validates the effectiveness of considering multiple uncertainties in the planning of microgrids with hybrid energy storage, particularly in considering the uncertainty of the decreasing trend in the investment cost of battery energy storage.

Operational Plan Analysis in Bina Insani University Business Development Project at Cikarang Campus

Bina Insani University's business development on the Cikarang campus will require good operations to run according to plan. Therefore, operational plan analysis is needed in the Bina Insani University business development project on the Cikarang campus. The aim of this research is to analyze the operational plan in the Bina Insani University business development project on the Cikarang campus. This study used qualitative research methods. Data collection techniques in this research used literature study and observation. The data that has been collected is then analyzed thematically. The research results show that the operational plan for the Bina Insani University business development project on the Cikarang campus has been well prepared. This operational planning is carried out through several stages including the physical construction of Bina Insani University campus buildings, Cikarang Campus, implementation of learning operations, service design and operational delivery.

SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES FOR FORECASTING NON-SCHEDULED PASSENGER AIR TRANSPORTATION

Forecasting non-scheduled passenger air transportation demand is essential for effective operational planning and decision-making. In this abstract, we explore the use of Gaussian Support Vector Machines (SVM) methods in forecasting nonscheduled passenger air transportation processes. SVM is a type of supervised machine learning algorithm that can be applied to various domains, including nonscheduled passenger air transportation. In classification and regression tasks, SVMs are considered especially useful. SVMs can be used to forecast passenger demand for specific routes or flights. By analysing historical data, including factors such as time of day, day of the week, etc., SVMs can help airlines estimate future passenger demand. This method is crucial for optimising ticket pricing and managing seat inventory. This research proposes the implementation of different Gaussian SVM methods for the forecasting of non-scheduled passenger air transportation.

Review of Interactive Teaching Methods of Music in Junior Middle Schools

At present, music teaching in junior high schools is gradually highlighting the importance and development trend of interactive teaching. This study provides an in-depth analysis of all aspects of interactive teaching of music in junior middle schools through a multi-faceted research perspective, providing richer insights and methods for improving the quality of teaching. The art of teacher-student interaction in junior high school music classroom teaching under the new curriculum reform was discussed, and the core role of interaction in teaching was explained in detail. Researchers have conducted in-depth studies on teacher-student interactive teaching strategies in junior high school music classes, providing more practical guidance for actual teaching. In terms of revealing the problems and countermeasures of music teaching in junior high schools, researchers have put forward more specific suggestions. In the process of in-depth exploration of interactive teaching of music in junior high schools, researchers realized the actual current situation of interactive teaching in online music classes and revealed various challenges and opportunities in online teaching. This article advocates improving the effectiveness of music teaching in junior middle schools through interactive teaching and injecting richer vitality into education. At the same time, researchers have focused on in-depth discussions on interactive teaching strategies in junior middle school music appreciation classes, providing systematic theoretical support for cultivating students' music appreciation abilities. They also paid attention to the application of interactive teaching models in junior high school music teaching, which provided profound inspiration for the construction of active interactive teaching models. Starting from the core literacy background, researchers conducted in-depth research on the interaction methods between teachers and students in junior high school music classes, and provided specific operational plans for the implementation of literacy education. Paying attention to the new form of teacher-student interaction in improving the musical literacy of junior high school students provides strong empirical research support for cultivating students' comprehensive literacy. Through in-depth research on the interactive teaching model of junior high school music classes, it provides experienced practical guidance for building a more interactive teaching framework. To sum up, the current research on interactive teaching of music in junior high schools involves many aspects such as teaching strategies, problems and countermeasures, online teaching, multimedia applications, and core competencies. These studies not only provide profound theoretical support for junior high school music teaching, but also provide rich experience and inspiration for practical teaching. In the future of music education, interactive teaching will continue to play a positive role in promoting, opening up broader possibilities for cultivating students' comprehensive literacy. Based on the latest references, this article conducts an in-depth study of interactive teaching methods of music in junior high schools, providing a solid theoretical foundation for subsequent research.

Analysis of South West Airlines Management and Logistic Plan

Southwest Airlines has turned into a precursor in the competitive airline market, this is because of its novel management and operations procedure. Therefore, investigating its extraordinary strategies, benefits, difficulties, and impacts on the airline's operations gives substantial recommendations for its future development. Southwest Airlines is a spearheading low-cost airliner known for its obligation to client-centricity and functional proficiency, which is plentifully shown by its extraordinary administration and coordinated operations plan. The "Southwest Way" culture, which advances employee empowerment and outstanding client support, is at its core. The point-to-point route structure of the airline augments productivity by diminishing intricacy and working with fast airplane turnarounds. This procedure works on functional adaptability and cost viability and is upheld by a normalized Boeing 737 fleet. Furthermore, Southwest increases airplane usage and income creation by focusing on short-haul trips. Nonetheless, because of the restrictions of the point-to-point idea, significant distance and global extension face difficulties. However, the essay proposes strategic ideas, like worldwide market extension, state-of-the-art administrative procedures, environmentally friendly logistics, and computerized change. These actions ensure progressing thriving, ecologically dependable activities, and unrivaled client encounters. To introduce Southwest Airlines as an aeronautics pioneer, this paper explores its mind-blowing way, which was set apart by remarkable procedures, difficulties, and steadfast purpose. In spite of difficulties, Southwest's beliefs, and employee-focused culture fueled the development and increased industry expectations. The paper examines how these components impact advancement and development.

Integration of sales, inventory, and transportation resource planning by dynamic-demand joint replenishment problem with time-varying costs

This paper addresses the joint replenishment problem in the context of sales and operations planning. Unlike traditional ones that assume static demands, unit costs, and transportation capacity, we consider dynamic-deterministic demands from sales plans and time-varying unit costs and transportation capacity to deal with the recent logistics conditions. We then introduce the capacitated dynamic-demand joint replenishment problem with time-varying costs. To efficiently solve this problem, a three-phase approach is proposed: (1) simplifying the problem and determining ideal inventory quantities using mixed integer linear programming, (2) estimating policy variables for each item using the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy, and (3) updating the ideal inventory quantities based on evaluated shortages until all demands are satisfied. Our method outperforms conventional approaches with at least 12 times faster solution runtimes in tests with up to 100 items. We also obtain the insight that the cost-efficient replenishment plan changes according to the increase rate of the unit transportation cost.

Strategy and capacity optimization of renewable hybrid combined cooling, heating and power system with multiple energy storage

Combined cooling, heating, and power systems offer significant potential for integration with renewable energy sources, such as solar and geothermal energy, alongside energy storage devices. However, the effectiveness and feasibility of these systems depend crucially on the operational strategies and capacity planning for each component. Therefore, an innovative hourly dynamic simulation model that integrates solar energy, geothermal energy, and multiple energy storage devices is established. Using the multi-objective comprehensive evaluation method that combines Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution methods and non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II including elite strategy, establish five dimensions of multi-objective optimization model, including energy-saving, economy, environmental protection, system independence and renewable energy utilization scale. Meanwhile, the system and reference system in a community in Beijing are used as models to analyze the equipment capacity under the three operating strategies. The findings reveal that, compared to the reference system, the new system attains optimal performance when following the electrical load strategy. Its comprehensive index reaches 69%, surpassing the thermal load and hybrid load strategies by 8% and 11%, respectively. When the target is set as “independence-renewable energy-cost,” the utilization rate of solar energy and geothermal energy reaches an impressive 79%, showcasing excellent renewable energy utilization. The presented model holds substantial significance for advancing research in the realms of operating strategies and equipment capacity planning within such systems.

Sales and Operation Analysis: A Case Study in Pt. Berkat Popok Bahagia

The purpose of this paper is to help solve one of the current existing issues of PT. Berkat Popok Bahagia which is SKUs being out of stock. It turns out that there are several reasons for this. The first reason is the amount of the stock of each SKU in the system differs from the amount of stock in the warehouse. The second reason is the demand from the distributors is not in sync with the sales and operational planning team, making it when the distributors order products (SKU) from the factory, the product is not available because it might not be in the production process. The third reason is the forecasting method that is currently being used is less suitable. Author compared the forecasting accuracy of each forecasting method in the top 2 SKUs of baby care category from simple moving average method, simple exponential smoothing method and exponential smoothing with trend method. The results of the forecasting accuracy is based on the MAPE value in which lower value indicates better method. The forecasting accuracy measurement result when comparing the 3 methods between the 2 SKUs are respectively 24.3% and 20.24% for simple moving average, 20.28% and 16.19% for simple exponential smoothing and 18.07% and 15.65% for exponential smoothing with trend. The results indicate that exponential smoothing with trend provides the best performance among the three which therefore author recommend this method compared to the current simple moving average method.