Long-term cost planning of data-driven wind-storage hybrid systems

Abstract

—To address the long-term cost planning problem accurately, typically a significant number of formulas are required. However, this increases computational complexity and limits the generalizability of the approach to practical problems. To overcome these challenges, this study adopts a data-driven approach that considers uncertainties to evaluate the long-term cost planning problem accurately for wind power generation with hybrid energy storage. A method for predicting wind power output is proposed using temporal convolutional networks to handle long-term uncertainties. Additionally, an instantaneous phase-synchronous wind power output feature extraction method based on Hilbert transform theory is introduced to capture time-series fluctuation characteristics and address short-term uncertainties. Furthermore, the long-term operational costs and planning of high-percentage new energy wind farms with hybrid energy storage are discussed by combining the wind power output characteristics with the operating characteristics and lifespan of hybrid energy storage devices. The experimental results demonstrate the significant advantages of the deep learning probabilistic prediction model combined with wind power feature extraction. The algorithm validates the effectiveness of considering multiple uncertainties in the planning of microgrids with hybrid energy storage, particularly in considering the uncertainty of the decreasing trend in the investment cost of battery energy storage.