Onset Of Eruption Research Articles

Plutonic Nature of a Transcrustal Magmatic System: Evidence from Ultrahigh Resolution Sr-Disequilibria in Plagioclase Microantecrysts from the Southern Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Abstract The residence timescales of antecrystic minerals contribute a key piece of information regarding the petrologic evolution of transcrustal magmatic systems and may be inferred using a combination of observations derived from microanalytical chemistry and diffusion modelling. Here, we present state-of-the-art stacked CMOS-type active pixel sensor (SCAPS) isotopographic images of tephra-hosted plagioclase microantecrysts from Tongariro Volcanic Centre in the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand. These crystals exhibit high-frequency Sr and anorthite zonation at sub-micron spatial resolution. We also find that all crystals display high-frequency intracrystalline Sr chemical potential variations, indicating that they have not resided at magmatic temperature for diffusive relaxation to advance significantly. To quantify crystal residence times at the well-constrained magmatic temperatures of these tephras, we first forward-modeled intracrystalline Sr diffusion over time using numerical methods. Results were then analyzed using novel spatial Fourier-transform techniques developed to understand the systematics the diffusive decay of Sr disequilibria in the spatial frequency domain. This ultimately permitted the estimation of Sr concentration profiles at crystal formation, prior to uptake into the carrier melt at the onset of eruption. Our data imply residence times of hours to days for the studied microantecrysts. This is inconsistent with long antecryst residence times in magmatic mushes at elevated temperatures, pointing instead to a cool plutonic nature of the magmatic plumbing system beneath the southern Taupo Volcanic Zone.

Unveiling the pre-eruptive seismic series of the La Palma 2021 eruption: Insights through a fully automated analysis

We have analyzed the seismic series that preceded the La Palma 2021 eruption using a fully automated workflow based on Deep Learning. A new seismic catalog has been obtained that contains twice the number of events as the original manual catalog. The new catalog consists of 5059 absolute locations obtained using a non-linear location method and a 3D velocity model of the island, as well as relative locations by means of double differences method. Our enhanced catalog contains detailed features of seismic migration through the crust. We differentiate the sequence into three stages leading up to the eruption onset using independent seismic parameters: inter-event time variation coefficient, b-value spatial distribution, hypocentral migration and magnitude distribution. Our analysis identifies two magmatic intrusions: The first migrates from the center of the Cumbre Vieja area to the west coast of the island (stage 1), where it stagnates. After two days of seismic quiescence (stage 2), a second intrusion begins near the center of the island and rises to the surface leading to the eruption (stage 3). These results were further validated by GNSS observations and previous geodetic studies. Our findings highlight the usefulness of this type of automated methodology, offering a real-time and accurate response during intense seismic episodes.

The Eruption of a Magnetic Flux Rope Observed by Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe

Magnetic flux ropes are a key component of coronal mass ejections, forming the core of these eruptive phenomena. However, determining whether a flux rope is present prior to eruption onset and, if so, the rope’s handedness and the number of turns that any helical field lines make is difficult without magnetic field modeling or in situ detection of the flux rope. We present two distinct observations of plasma flows along a filament channel on 2022 September 4 and 5 made using the Solar Orbiter spacecraft. Each plasma flow exhibited helical motions in a right-handed sense as the plasma moved from the source active region across the solar disk to the quiet Sun, suggesting that the magnetic configuration of the filament channel contains a flux rope with positive chirality and at least one turn. The length and velocity of the plasma flow increased from the first to the second observation, suggesting evolution of the flux rope, with the flux rope subsequently erupting within ∼5 hr of the second plasma flow. The erupting flux rope then passed over the Parker Solar Probe spacecraft during its encounter (13), enabling in situ diagnostics of the structure. Although complex and consistent with the flux rope erupting from underneath the heliospheric current sheet, the in situ measurements support the inference of a right-handed flux rope from remote-sensing observations. These observations provide a unique insight into the eruption and evolution of a magnetic flux rope near the Sun.

Deformation, seismicity, and monitoring response preceding and during the 2022 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland

Following two periods of dike intrusion in 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, one of which led to an eruption, a third dike intrusion commenced on 30 July 2022. A sudden increase in seismicity occurred within the diking area, with approximately 1700 automatically detected earthquakes > M1 within 24 h. Strong earthquakes were felt over several days within a wider area (largest MW 5.3). The timeline and spatial distribution of seismicity suggested it resulted from diking, together with triggered seismicity in nearby areas releasing stored tectonic stress. Geodetic observations revealed displacements consistent with a dike intrusion, and geodetic modeling on 2 August revealed a best-fit model with a shallow top depth of the dike (~1 km), and high magma inflow rate (~49 m3/s). Also considering a decline in seismicity, a warning was issued that the likelihood of a new eruption in the coming days was high. An effusive eruption started the next day (3 August) on a ~375-m-long fissure, with an initial extrusion rate of 32 m3/s. The projected surface location of the dike (from the optimal model) was within 49–110 m of the eruptive fissure. We present a timeline of the activity and monitoring response in the days both preceding and following the eruption onset. We compare the details of the activity that occurred prior to this diking and eruption to the previous events at Fagradalsfjall to improve understanding of unrest preceding eruptions.

The sequence of the 2017–2018 eruptions and seismo-acoustic activity at Kirishima volcano group

Kirishima volcano consists of more than 20 eruptive centers. Among them, Shinmoe-dake had magmatic eruptions in October 2017 and March 2018. Subsequently, another active cone, Iwo-yama, had phreatic eruptions in April 2018. These events were unique in that the 2018 eruption was the first effusion-dominated eruption of Shinmoe-dake and the first simultaneous activity of two cones of the Kirishima volcanic group ever documented. We report the detailed sequence of the events by combining areal photos, satellite images, and seismo-acoustic data analyses with the other published information. The seismo-acoustic data clarify the eruption onset and the transitions of the behaviors in three stages for each of the 2017 and 2018 eruptions. For both eruptions, we present regularly repeated tremors or ’drumbeat’ earthquakes in the second stage, which interpret as gas separation from magma, leading to the ash-poor plume in the 2017 eruption or the effusive eruption in the 2018 event. We also propose that the 2017 and 2018 eruptions of Shinmoe-dake and the 2018 eruption of Iwo-yama are sequential events linked by the degassing of magma beneath Shinmoe-dake. An eruption like the 2017–2018 eruptions of Shinmoe-dake would leave few geological records and could be captured only by modern techniques. Although Shinmoe-dake has been believed to be an example of less-frequent eruptions, effusive eruptions like the 2018 case might have occurred more frequently in the past , but the following eruptions had obscured their records. The timelines summarized in this study will be useful in future studies of Kirishima volcanoes and world equivalences.Graphical

Recurring outbursts of the supernova impostor AT 2016blu in NGC 4559

ABSTRACT We present the first photometric analysis of the supernova (SN) impostor AT 2016blu in NGC 4559. This transient was discovered by the Lick Observatory Supernova Search in 2012 and has continued its outbursts since then. Optical and infrared photometry of AT 2016blu reveals at least 19 outbursts in 2012–2022. Similar photometry from 1999 to 2009 shows no outbursts, indicating that the star was relatively stable in the decade before discovery. Archival Hubble Space Telescope observations suggest that the progenitor had a minimum initial mass of $M \gtrsim 33$ M⊙ and a luminosity of $L \gtrsim 10^{5.7}$ L⊙. AT 2016blu’s outbursts show irregular variability with multiple closely spaced peaks having typical amplitudes of 1–2 mag and durations of 1–4 weeks. While individual outbursts have irregular light curves, concentrations of these peaks recur with a period of ∼113 ± 2 d. Based on this period, we predict upcoming outbursts in 2023 and 2024. AT 2016blu shares similarities with SN 2000ch in NGC 3432, where outbursts may arise from periastron encounters in an eccentric binary containing a luminous blue variable (LBV). We propose that AT 2016blu’s outbursts are also driven by interactions that intensify around periastron in an eccentric system. Intrinsic variability of the LBV-like primary star may cause different intensity and duration of binary interaction at each periastron passage. AT 2016blu also resembles the periastron encounters of η Carinae prior to its Great Eruption and the erratic pre-SN eruptions of SN 2009ip. This similarity and the onset of eruptions in the past decade hint that AT 2016blu may also be headed for a catastrophe, making it a target of great interest.

Petrology and mineralogy of volcanic glass in meteorite Northwest Africa 11801: Implications for their petrogenesis

AbstractThe study of lunar magma evolution holds significant importance within the scientific community due to its relevance in understanding the Moon's thermal and geological history. However, the intricate task of unraveling the history of early volcanic activity on the Moon is hindered by the high flux of impactors, which have substantially changed the morphology of pristine volcanic constructs. In this study, we focus on a unique volcanic glass found in the lunar meteorite Northwest Africa 11801. This kind of volcanic glass is bead‐like in shape and compositionally similar to the Apollo‐14 and Apollo‐17 very low‐Ti glass. Our research approach involves conducting a comprehensive analysis of the petrology and mineralogy of the volcanic glass, coupled with multiple thermodynamic modeling techniques. Through the investigation, we aim to shed light on the petrological characteristics and evolutionary history of the glass. The results indicate that the primitive magma of the glass was created at 1398–1436°C and 8.3–11.9 kbar (166–238 km) from an olivine+orthopyroxene mantle source region. Then, the magma ascended toward the surface along a non‐adiabatic path with an ascent rate of ~40 m s−1 or 0.2 MPa s−1. During the magma ascent, only olivine crystallized and the onset of magma eruption occurred at ~1320–1343°C. Finally, the glass cooled rapidly on the lunar surface with a cooling rate ranging between 20 and 200 K min−1. Considerable evidence from petrology, mineralogy, cooling rate, and the eruption rate of the glass beads strongly supports the occurrence of ancient explosive volcanism on the Moon.

Discrete magma injections drive the 2021 La Palma eruption

Understanding the drivers of the onset, evolution, and end of eruptions and their impact on eruption style is critical in eruption forecasting and emergency management. The composition of erupted liquids is a key piece of the volcano puzzle, but untangling subtle melt variations remains an analytical challenge. Here, we apply rapid, high-resolution matrix geochemical analysis on samples of known eruption date spanning the entire 2021 La Palma eruption. Sr isotope signatures reveal distinct pulses of basanite melt driving the onset, restart, and evolution of the eruption. Elemental variations in matrix and microcrysts track progressive invasion, and draining, of a subcrustal crystal mush. Associated variations in lava flow rate, vent development, seismicity, and SO 2 emission demonstrate that volcanic matrix resolves eruption patterns that could be expected in future basaltic eruptions globally.

Recent progress on understanding coronal mass ejection/flare onset by a NASA living with a star focused science team

We present a report of recent progress on the topic of understanding solar coronal mass ejection (CME) onset from both modeling and observational viewpoints, as carried out from 2019 to the present by the NASA Living with a Star Focused Science Topic team on “Understanding the Onset of Major Solar Eruptions.” Following the typical Focused Science Topic paradigm, a number of research groups were selected and joined together to tackle this problem. The work being carried out by this team explores the role of topology and of helicity transport in creating an environment favorable to CME eruption and in then providing the energy required for CME onset. The team investigated CME energization and initiation via photospheric shearing, via flux rope formation, and via magnetic flux emergence. This article will highlight recent progress made by six American research groups working in these areas. We do not intend to present an exhaustive review of these topics, but rather summarize the ideas from these research groups regarding ongoing and upcoming challenges to the questions of how, when, and why coronal mass ejections erupt from the sun.

Earthquakes Record Cycles of Opening and Closing in the Enhanced Seismic Catalog of the 2008 Okmok Volcano, Alaska, Eruption

AbstractSeismicity during explosive volcanic eruptions remains challenging to observe through the eruptive noise, leaving first‐order questions unanswered. How do earthquake rates change as eruptions progress, and what is their relationship to the opening and closing of the eruptive vent? To address these questions for the Okmok Volcano 2008 explosive eruption, Volcano Explosivity Index 4, we utilized modern detection methods to enhance the existing earthquake catalog. Our enhanced catalog detected significantly more earthquakes than traditional methods. We located, relocated, determined magnitudes and classified all events within this catalog. Our analysis reveals distinct behaviors for long‐period (LP) and volcano‐tectonic (VT) earthquakes, providing insights into the opening and closing cycle. LP earthquakes occur as bursts beneath the eruptive vent and do not coincide in time with the plumes, indicating their relationship to an eruptive process that occurs at a high pressurization state, that is, partially closed conduit. In contrast, VT earthquakes maintain a steadier rate over a broader region, do not track the caldera deflation and have a larger b‐value during the eruption than before or after. The closing sequence is marked by a burst of LPs followed by small VTs south of the volcano. The opening sequence differs as only VTs extend to depth and migrate within minutes of the eruption onset. Our high‐resolution catalog offers valuable insights, demonstrating that volcanic conduits can transition between partially closed (clogged) and open (cracked) states during an eruption. Utilizing modern earthquake processing techniques enables clearer understanding of eruptions and holds promise for studying other volcanic events.

Vulcanian eruption processes inferred from volcanic glow analysis at Sakurajima volcano, Japan

Volcanic glow, which is often observed at active craters during nighttime, contains information on high-temperature zones deep in the crater that are hidden from view. We analyzed 90 eruption videos capturing volcanic glow before the onset of Vulcanian eruptions at the Showa crater of Sakurajima volcano (Japan), and found that they show clear temporal changes. The red (R)-value and the green-to-red ratio (GR ratio) are used to track glow intensity and temperature change, respectively. We found two types of temporal change in glow intensity: a short-term change approximately 1 s before the onset of explosions, and a long-term change 3 to 330 s before an explosion. Short-term changes were observed for 28 of 90 eruptions, and coincided with an increase in the GR ratio and with a modest precursory infrasound pressure increase. Since an increasing GR ratio means a temperature increase, we consider that the change was associated with the opening of tensile cracks on the crater floor before an explosion. However, the other 62 eruptions did not show short-term changes, suggesting that the opening of cracks is sporadic. Long-term changes were observed for 73 of 90 eruptions, the GR ratio did not exhibit a significant increase. We suggest that long-term changes are caused by gradual gas leakage, which precedes initiation of Vulcanian eruptions. We hypothesize that the long-term gas leakage causes gradual decompression of the conduit, which induces supersaturation of volatile-rich magma beneath the lava plug causing explosive expansion, thereby triggering an eruption.

Petrology of the 2020–21 effusive to explosive eruption of La Soufrière Volcano, St Vincent: insights into plumbing system architecture and magma assembly mechanism

Abstract The 2020–21 eruption of La Soufrière, St Vincent began with extrusion of a viscous lava dome, which was destroyed upon transition to a major explosive phase. Here we present petrological data to reconstruct the processes leading up to these events. Bulk-rock SiO 2 contents range from 52.8 to 55.4 wt%, classifying the lava and the subsequent scoria as basaltic andesite, the latter being slightly more mafic. Macrocrystal chemistry and modes (plag–cpx–opx–tmt–ol) and crystallinity (45–50 vol%) are largely identical for both phases of the eruption. Pyroxenes are homogenous and precipitated mostly from andesitic melts. Conversely, plagioclase shows strong normal zonation resulting from magma ascent and stalling at multiple crustal levels. Clinopyroxene thermobarometry reveals that crystallization predominantly took place between 8 and 13 km depth at temperatures of 997 − 35 + 18 ∘ C . A lack of evidence for mafic recharge and changes in volatile content and the omnipresence of xenoliths, suggests pre-eruptive destabilization of an andesitic–dacitic melt pocket that disrupted and entrained antecedent mush. Olivine diffusion profiles show that this interaction preceded the onset of eruption. Low dissolved sulfur contents (≤270 ppm S) place constraints on the total SO 2 gas release. Melt–mush disruption appears to be a dominant driver of eruptions at La Soufrière.

Explosive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy): a comprehensive geochemical view on magma sources and intensity range

A comprehensive understanding of the processes that occur during magmatic storage and pre-eruptive ascent—and of their associated timescales—is critical to identifying potential precursory signals, and to developing robust volcano early-warning systems. Stromboli’s persistent activity comprises continuous degassing and explosive activity that ranges from hourly, low-intensity “normal” activity to occasional, more violent, paroxysmal activity. While the magma source processes that drive normal and paroxysmal activity are reasonably constrained, eruptive activity intermediate in magnitude and intensity (i.e., major explosions) remains elusive in terms of classification, source region, and pre-eruptive timescales. Here, we investigate the 19 July 2020 major explosion that geophysical parameters place at the upper limit of the major explosions field, close to small-scale paroxysms such as the 2003 and 2007 events. The geochemical signatures of matrix glass, olivine, melt inclusions, and embayments—integrated with gas measurements—highlight important differences in eruption source, ascent behaviour, and pre-eruptive timescales of the studied event when compared to paroxysms. Melt inclusion volatile contents identify that magma rise begins from a slightly shallower source (~9.5 km below sea level, b.s.l.) than for paroxysms (11.4 km b.s.l.), with the activation of a shallower ponding zone at 5–6 km b.s.l.. This, in combination with intermediate matrix glass compositions, suggests complex ascent behaviour, characterised by CO2 buffering in the deep ponding region and magma self-mixing in the shallower zone. Fe–Mg-diffusion modelling in olivine indicates a system perturbation starting ~20–25 days before eruption onset, in agreement with the timescale of volcanic gas CO2/SO2 ratio changes observed in the plume, and significantly shorter than that observed prior to paroxysms (~4 months). The geochemical dataset provides insights into the processes controlling the steady-state conditions and the broad spectra in eruption magnitude and intensity at Stromboli and bears important implications for eruption forecasting.

Tidal modulation of the seismic activity related to the 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption

The volcanic eruption at La Palma started on September 19, 2021. The eruption was preceded by a seismic swarm that began on September 11, although anomalous seismicity has been observed on the island since 2017. During the co-eruptive phase of the seismic activity, hypocenters depth was generally less than 15 km, save for the period between November 10 and November 27, when hypocenters ranged in the depth from 15 to 40 km. The eruption ended on December 13, 2021. We compute tidal stress for each earthquake at the hypocenter depth and find statistically significant correlations between the occurrence times of the earthquakes and the confining tidal stress values and stress rates. The correlation is depth-dependent, and ocean-loading tides have a stronger effect than body tides. We find that tidal stress variations contribute to the eruption onset and that certain explosive events, typical in Strombolian type volcanoes, seem to occur preferentially when the tidal stress rate is high. Our analysis supports the hypothesis that tides may modulate earthquake activity in volcanic areas, specifically during magma migration at shallow depths. A conceptual model is proposed, which could have a general application in the Canary Islands archipelago and other volcanic islands.

The 2013–2020 seismic activity at Sabancaya Volcano (Peru): Long lasting unrest and eruption

Sabancaya volcano is the youngest and second most active volcano in Peru. It is part of the Ampato-Sabancaya volcanic complex which sits to the south of the ancient Hualca Hualca volcano and several frequently active faults, thus resulting in complex volcano-tectonic interactions. After 15 years of repose, in 2013, a series of 4 earthquakes with magnitude >4.5 occurred within 24 h, marking the beginning of a new episode of unrest. Several additional swarms of earthquakes occurred in the following years until magmatic eruptive activity started on 6 November 2016. This activity is ongoing as of this writing, with an average of 50 explosions per day. In this study, we present results of multiparametric monitoring of Sabancaya's activity observed during 2013–2020. Seismic data are used to create a one-dimensional seismic velocity model, to catalog, locate, and characterize earthquakes, to detect repeating earthquake families, and to monitor seismic velocity variations by ambient noise cross-correlation. These analyses are complemented by visual and remote sensing observations and ground deformation measurements. All monitored parameters showed significant changes on 6 November 2016, the day of eruption onset, thus dividing the eruptive activity into pre-eruptive and eruptive stages.The unrest is characterized by high levels of seismic activity with hundreds of events detected per day. Volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes were dominant during the pre-eruptive period while long-period (LP) events and explosions have been most numerous since the eruption onset. Earthquake locations highlight long-lasting seismogenic zones along multiple previously active regional faults, as well as along newly identified faults. This VT seismicity is mainly distributed in a sector from the northwest to the east of the volcanic complex at distances of up to 30 km from the crater. We focus our analysis on two eruptive episodes: the eruption onset and subsequent crater migration from south to north, and the increase of lava dome extrusion rate in 2019. Both episodes are accompanied by seismic velocity decreases of up to 0.2% and are preceded by a few weeks by bursts of distal VT activity, including numerous repeating earthquakes. These repeated events were located on several remote tectonic faults (5–25 km from the vent). We suggest that these phenomena could be due to the injection of a batch of magma in the deep reservoir and/or conduit, which would generate 1) a pressure wave propagating in the hydrothermal system, triggering the bursts of seismic activity and 2) slow rising of magma by melting old material filling the conduit that eventually produced the eruptive and dome growth acceleration events.

Subacute Onset of Chronic Urticaria Post COVID-19 Vaccination

Urticaria has been known to be triggered for a variety of allergy and non-allergic etiologies. Autoimmune disease, infection, and immunizations can be considered as possible underlying differentials for non-allergic urticarial eruption. I hypothesized that a subacute onset of chronic urticarial eruptions and/or demographic state was also possibly attributable to COVID-19 vaccinations in select patients observed at a single allergy and immunology practice.

ULECTOMY AS A SURGICAL OPTION IN PRIMARY HEALTH CARE

Introduction: One of the clinical challenges that comprises the phase of mixed dentition in pediatric patients is tooth impaction. This alteration has a multifactorial etiopathology, with local and systemic factors being related. When tooth eruption does not occur spontaneously, the dentist can perform a surgical procedure, called ulectomy, in order to allow a free path for the tooth to come to occupy its position in the dental arch. Objective: To present ulectomy as a surgical option for the treatment of dental impaction in Primary Health Care. Case report: A 6-year-old female patient came with her parents to the Basic Health Unit in the city of Lajedo-PE, complaining of delayed eruption of permanent teeth. The intraoral clinical examination revealed the absence of elements 11 and 21 and the presence of a thick layer of gingival tissue. The most indicated therapeutic approach was the ulectomy technique. Intraoral and extraoral antisepsis were performed; application of topical anesthetic; infiltrative terminal anesthesia; and elliptical incisions promoting removal of the coronary cap. Hemostasis was promoted by tamponade and no postoperative prescription was required. The patient returned in 15 days, and the onset of eruption of elements 11 and 21 was observed. Conclusion: Ulectomy can be considered a conservative, safe and effective therapeutic method for the resolution of prolonged retention of dental elements in pediatric dentistry. Due to the safety of the procedure, it can be performed in Primary Health Care, as a way of guaranteeing its principles, as long as there is sufficient technical and scientific knowledge to do so.

The Giant Ionospheric Depletion on 15 January 2022 Around the Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption

AbstractThe 15 January 2022 Tonga eruption seemed to have caused a strong depletion in the ionospheric electron density. However, the eruption occurred during a moderate geomagnetic storm, so that the depletion could be a local negative effect of the storm. In this work, for the first time, we analyze this depletion and discuss relative contributions of the eruption and the storm through measurements of GNSS‐derived vertical total electron content (VTEC), O/N2 ratio by TIMED/GUVI, ion density and temperature by ICON/IVM, and simulations by Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). We show that shortly after the eruption onset the VTEC in the vicinity of the volcano dropped by ∼80%–95% below the quiet‐time values. The depletion extended up to 4,000 km away from the volcano and lasted for ∼16 hr, that is, until local morning hours. Our results suggest that the depletion was initially caused by the eruption (60%–75% negative deviation) and was further reinforced by the storm, by at least 20%. Spatially, only ∼1,500 km could be attributed to the eruption. This study provides a good illustration of understanding the contributions of forcings from above and below to the ionosphere.

Rapid magma ascent beneath La Palma revealed by seismic tomography

For the first time, we obtained high-resolution images of Earth's interior of the La Palma volcanic eruption that occurred in 2021 derived during the eruptive process. We present evidence of a rapid magmatic rise from the base of the oceanic crust under the island to produce an eruption that was active for 85 days. This eruption is interpreted as a very accelerated and energetic process. We used data from 11,349 earthquakes to perform travel-time seismic tomography. We present high-precision earthquake relocations and 3D distributions of P and S-wave velocities highlighting the geometry of magma sources. We identified three distinct structures: (1) a shallow localised region (< 3 km) of hydrothermal alteration; (2) spatially extensive, consolidated, oceanic crust extending to 10 km depth and; (3) a large sub-crustal magma-filled rock volume intrusion extending from 7 to 25 km depth. Our results suggest that this large magma reservoir feeds the La Palma eruption continuously. Prior to eruption onset, magma ascended from 10 km depth to the surface in less than 7 days. In the upper 3 km, melt migration is along the western contact between consolidated oceanic crust and altered hydrothermal material.

Development of a Bayesian event tree for short-term eruption onset forecasting at Taupō volcano

Taupō volcano, located within the Taupō Volcanic Zone (TVZ) in the central North Island of Aotearoa-New Zealand, is one of the world’s most active silicic caldera systems. Silicic calderas such as Taupō are capable of a broad and complex range of volcanological activity, ranging from minor unrest episodes to large destructive supereruptions. A critical tool for volcanic risk management is eruption forecasting. The Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) is one probabilistic eruption forecasting tool that can be used to produce short-term eruption forecasts for any volcano worldwide. A BET_EF model is developed for Taupō volcano, informed by geologic and historic data. Monitoring parameters for the model were obtained through a structured expert elicitation workshop with 30 of Aotearoa-New Zealand’s volcanologists and volcano monitoring scientists. The eruption probabilities output by the BET_EF model for Taupō volcano’s 17 recorded unrest episodes (between 1877 and 2019) were examined. We found time-inhomogeneity in the probabilities stemming from both the changes over time in the monitoring network around Taupō volcano and increasing level of past data (number of non-eruptive unrest episodes). We examine the former issue through the lens of the latest episodes, and the latter by re-running the episodes assuming knowledge of all 16 other episodes (calibration to 2021 data). The time variable monitoring network around Taupō volcano and parameter weights had a substantial impact on the estimated probabilities of magmatic unrest and eruption. We also note the need for improved monitoring and data processing at Taupō volcano, the existence of which would prompt updates and therefore refinements in the BET_EF model.