Onset Of Eruption Research Articles

Reconstruction of the 2014 eruption sequence of Ontake Volcano from recorded images and interviews

A phreatic eruption at Mount Ontake (3067 m) on September 27, 2014, led to 64 casualties, including missing people. In this paper, we clarify the eruption sequence of the 2014 eruption from recorded images (photographs and videos obtained by climbers) and interviews with mountain guides and workers in mountain huts. The onset of eruption was sudden, without any clear precursory surface phenomena (such as ground rumbling or strong smell of sulfide). Our data indicate that the eruption sequence can be divided into three phases. Phase 1: The eruption started with dry pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) caused by ash column collapse. The PDCs flowed down 2.5 km SW and 2 km NW from the craters. In addition, PDCs moved horizontally by approximately 1.5 km toward N and E beyond summit ridges. The temperature of PDCs at the summit area partially exceeded 100 °C, and an analysis of interview results suggested that the temperature of PDCs was mostly in the range of 30–100 °C. At the summit area, there were violent falling ballistic rocks. Phase 2: When the outflow of PDCs stopped, the altitude of the eruption column increased; tephra with muddy rain started to fall; and ambient air temperature decreased. Falling ballistic rocks were almost absent during this phase. Phase 3: Finally, muddy hot water flowed out from the craters. These models reconstructed from observations are consistent with the phreatic eruption models and typical eruption sequences recorded at similar volcanoes.

Velocity variations associated with the large 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano, Java, retrieved from seismic multiplets and ambient noise cross-correlation

We present a study of the seismic velocity variations that occurred in the structure before the large 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano. For the first time to our knowledge, the technique of coda wave interferometry is applied to both families of similar events (multiplets) and to correlation functions of seismic noise. About half of the seismic events recorded at the summit stations belong to one of the ten multiplets identified, including 120 similar events that occurred in the last 20 hr preceding the eruption onset. Daily noise cross-correlation functions (NCF) were calculated for the six pairs of short-period stations available. Using the stretching method, we estimate time-series of apparent velocity variation (AVV) for each multiplet and each pair of stations. No significant velocity change is detected until September 2010. From 10 October to the beginning of the eruption on 26 October, a complex pattern of AVV is observed with amplitude of up to ±1.5 per cent. Velocity decrease is first observed from families of deep events and then from shallow earthquakes. In the same period, AVV with different signs and chronologies are estimated from NCF calculated for various station pairs. The location in the horizontal plane of the velocity perturbations related with the AVV obtained from NCF is estimated by using an approach based on the radiative transfer approximation. Although their spatial resolution is limited, the resulting maps display velocity decrease in the upper part of the edifice in the period 12–25 October. After the eruption onset, the pattern of velocity perturbations is significantly modified with respect to the previous one. We interpret these velocity variations in the framework of a scenario of magmatic intrusion that integrates most observations. The perturbation of the stress field associated with the magma migration can induce both decrease and increase of the seismic velocity of rocks. Thus the detected AVVs can be considered as precursors of volcanic eruptions in andesitic volcanoes, without taking their sign into account.

MICROWAVE IMAGING OF A HOT FLUX ROPE STRUCTURE DURING THE PRE-IMPULSIVE STAGE OF AN ERUPTIVE M7.7 SOLAR FLARE

ABSTRACT Corona structures and processes during the pre-impulsive stage of solar eruption are crucial to understanding the physics leading to the subsequent explosive energy release. Here we present the first microwave imaging study of a hot flux rope structure during the pre-impulsive stage of an eruptive M7.7 solar flare, with the Nobeyama Radioheliograph at 17 GHz. The flux rope is also observed by the SDO/AIA in its hot passbands of 94 and 131 Å. In the microwave data, it is revealed as an overall arcade-like structure consisting of several intensity enhancements bridged by generally weak emissions, with brightness temperatures (T B) varying from ∼10,000 K to ∼20,000 K. Locations of microwave intensity enhancements along the structure remain relatively fixed at certain specific parts of the flux rope, indicating that the distribution of emitting electrons is affected by the large-scale magnetic configuration of the twisted flux rope. Wavelet analysis shows a pronounced 2 minute period of the microwave T B variation during the pre-impulsive stage of interest. The period agrees well with that reported for AIA sunward-contracting loops and upward ejective plasmoids (suggested to be reconnection outflows). This suggests that both periodicities are controlled by the same reconnection process that takes place intermittently at a 2 minute timescale. We infer that at least a part of the emission is excited by non-thermal energetic electrons via the gyro-synchrotron mechanism. The study demonstrates the potential of microwave imaging in exploring the flux rope magnetic geometry and relevant reconnection process during the onset of solar eruption.

Eruption dynamics of the 22–23 April 2015 Calbuco Volcano (Southern Chile): Analyses of tephra fall deposits

After 54years since its last major eruption in 1961, Calbuco Volcano (Ensenada, Southern Chile) reawakened with few hours of warning on 22 April 2015 at 18:05 local time. The main explosive eruption consisted of two eruption pulses (lasting ~1.5 and 6h each one) on 22 and 23 April, producing stratospheric (>15km height) eruption columns. The erupted materials correspond to porphyritic basaltic andesite (~55wt.% of SiO2). The tephra fall affected mainly the area northeast of the volcano and the finest ash was deposited over Southern Chile and Patagonia Argentina. We studied the tephra fall deposits of both pulses in terms of stratigraphy, distribution, volume, emplacement dynamics and eruption source parameters. Here, we show field observations that have been made 5–470km downwind and distinguish five layers (Layers A, B, B1, C and D) representing different stages of the eruption evolution: eruption onset (Layer A; pulse 1), followed by the first paroxysmal event (Layer B; pulse 1), in some places interbedded by layer B1, tentatively representing the sedimentation of a secondary plume during the end of pulse 1. We recognized a second paroxysm (Layer C; pulse 2) followed by the waning of the eruption (Layer D; pulse 2). The total calculated bulk tephra fall deposit volume is 0.27±0.007km3 (0.11–0.13km3 dense rock equivalent), 38% of which was erupted during the first phase and 62% during the second pulse. This eruption was a magnitude 4.45 event (VEI 4 eruption) of subPlinian type.

STRUCTURE, STABILITY, AND EVOLUTION OF MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF MAGNETIC TWIST

ABSTRACT We investigate the evolution of NOAA Active Region (AR) 11817 during 2013 August 10–12, when it developed a complex field configuration and produced four confined, followed by two eruptive, flares. These C-and-above flares are all associated with a magnetic flux rope (MFR) located along the major polarity inversion line, where shearing and converging photospheric flows are present. Aided by the nonlinear force-free field modeling, we identify the MFR through mapping magnetic connectivities and computing the twist number  w ?> for each individual field line. The MFR is moderately twisted ( ∣  w ∣ < 2 ?> ) and has a well-defined boundary of high squashing factor Q. We found that the field line with the extremum ∣  w ∣ ?> is a reliable proxy of the rope axis, and that the MFR's peak ∣  w ∣ ?> temporarily increases within half an hour before each flare while it decreases after the flare peak for both confined and eruptive flares. This pre-flare increase in ∣  w ∣ ?> has little effect on the AR's free magnetic energy or any other parameters derived for the whole region, due to its moderate amount and the MFR's relatively small volume, while its decrease after flares is clearly associated with the stepwise decrease in the whole region's free magnetic energy due to the flare. We suggest that  w ?> may serve as a useful parameter in forewarning the onset of eruption, and therefore, the consequent space weather effects. The helical kink instability is identified as the prime candidate onset mechanism for the considered flares.

Tracking timescales of short-term precursors to large basaltic fissure eruptions through Fe–Mg diffusion in olivine

Petrological constraints on the timescales of pre-eruptive crystal storage and magma degassing provide an important framework for the interpretation of seismic, geodetic and gas monitoring data in volcanically active regions. We have used Fe–Mg diffusion chronometry in 86 olivine macrocrysts from the AD 1783–1784 Laki eruption on Iceland's Eastern Volcanic Zone to characterise timescales of crystal storage and transport in the lead-up to this eruption. The majority of these olivines have core compositions of Fo<76, and rim compositions in the range Fo69–Fo74 that are close to equilibrium with the Laki melt. Diffusion modelling using the greyscale intensity of backscattered electron images as a proxy for olivine composition reveals that the most probable Fe–Mg diffusion timescale for Laki olivines is 7.8 days, which reflects the characteristic olivine residence time in the carrier melt prior to eruption. A small population of Fo>81 olivines record Fe–Mg diffusion timescales of ∼124 days; these crystals are likely to have formed in mid-crustal magma chambers, been transferred to storage at shallower levels and then entrained into the Laki melt prior to eruption. Typical Fe–Mg diffusion timescales of 6–10 days are shorter than the average time interval between discrete episodes of the Laki eruption, indicating variable or pulsed disaggregation of stored crystals into the carrier liquid prior to the onset of each episode. The diffusion timescales coincide with historical accounts of strong and frequent earthquakes in southeast Iceland, which we interpret as being associated with mush disaggregation related to melt withdrawal and the initiation of dyke propagation from a crustal magma reservoir at ∼6±3 km depth to the surface. We calculate pre-eruptive CO2 fluxes of 2–6 Mt d−1, assuming a pre-eruptive CO2 outgassing budget of 189.6 Mt for the Laki eruption and a constant rate of CO2 release in the 6–10 days preceding each eruptive episode. Our dataset indicates that petrological constraints on the timescales of magmatic processes occurring in the days leading up to historic eruptions may enhance our ability to forecast the onset of future large eruptions, both in Iceland and further afield.

Conclusion: recommendations and findings of the RED SEED working group

Abstract RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each presentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive eruption onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

Quantifying lava flow hazards in response to effusive eruption

The integration of satellite data and modeling represents a step toward the next generation of quantitative hazard assessment in response to effusive volcano eruption onset. Satellite-based thermal remote sensing of hotspots related to effusive activity can effectively provide a variety of products suited to timing, locating, and tracking the radiant character of lava flows. Hotspots show the location and occurrence of eruptive events (vents). Discharge rate estimates may indicate the current intensity (effusion rate) and potential magnitude (volume). High-spatial-resolution multispectral satellite data can complement field observations for monitoring the front position (length) and extension of flows (area). Physics-based models driven, or validated, by satellite-derived parameters are now capable of fast and accurate forecast of lava flow inundation scenarios (hazard). Here, we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote-sensing techniques and lava flow models by using a retrospective analysis of the 2004–2005 effusive eruption at Mount Etna in Italy. The lava flow hazard was assessed by using the HOTSAT volcano hotspot detection system, which works with satellite thermal infrared data, and the MAGFLOW lava flow emplacement model, which is able to relate the flow evolution to eruption conditions at the vent. We used HOTSAT to analyze Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI) data to output hotspot location, lava thermal flux, and effusion rate estimation. This output was used to drive the MAGFLOW simulations of lava flow paths and to continuously update flow simulations. We also show how Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper+ (ETM+) and Earth Observing 1 ( EO-1 ) Advanced Land Imager (ALI) images complement the field observations to track the flow front position in time and add valuable data on lava flow advancement with which to validate the numerical simulations. Such integration at last makes timely forecasts of lava flow hazards during effusive crises possible at the great majority of volcanoes for which no monitoring exists.

Dynamics and pre-eruptive conditions of catastrophic, ignimbrite-producing eruptions from the Yenkahe Caldera, Vanuatu

A combined stratigraphic and geochemical examination of ~43kyr of volcanic activity is presented for the Yenkahe Caldera, a mafic–intermediate volcanic system on the island of Tanna, in the Vanuatu Arc. Through this period two catastrophic ignimbrite-producing eruptions have occurred: the Siwi eruption and the older, Old Tanna Ignimbrite eruption. The latter was previously linked with a different edifice to the north-east, however re-examination has shown it was derived from the Yenkahe Caldera. Radiocarbon dating of this ignimbrite gives an age of ~43kyr B.P. Both eruptions produced voluminous ignimbrite sheets, however differences in deposit sequences show that the eruptions followed distinct courses. Deposits from the more recent Siwi eruption display greater evidence for phreatomagmatic phases during eruption onset. Both ignimbrites are distributed asymmetrically about the caldera, indicating partial collapse in each case. The early stages of the Siwi eruption produced directed pyroclastic surges and spatter fountains. Between these two major eruptions, volcanic activity was maintained through the formation of small, discrete volcanic cones, such as Yasur, which is active today. Whole rock major and trace element data show that intra-caldera activity between cataclysmic eruptions produced magmas of uniform basaltic-trachy-andesitic composition (SiO2~56wt.%). Minerals within these lavas appear to be in equilibrium with their host. The Siwi eruption produced the most evolved, trachy-andesitic magma (SiO2>58wt.%), while the Old Tanna eruption is associated with less evolved, basaltic-andesite magma (SiO2~53wt.%). Juvenile clasts from both ignimbrites display diverse mineral chemistry and mineral disequilibrium textures. From these variations in geochemistry and petrology we suggest that a crystal mush or resident magma remained following low-magnitude, intra-caldera activity. MELTS modelling suggest that this was stored at shallow depths, equivalent to pressures <1kbar. Injection and mingling/mixing with primitive magma rejuvenated this mush component to trigger the ignimbrite eruptions.

Magma migration at the onset of the 2012–13 Tolbachik eruption revealed by Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis

Abstract In contrast of the 1975–76 Tolbachik eruption, the 2012–13 Tolbachik eruption was not preceded by any striking change in seismic activity. By processing the Klyuchevskoy volcano group seismic data with the Seismic Amplitude Ratio Analysis (SARA) method, we gain insights into the dynamics of magma movement prior to this important eruption. A clear seismic migration within the seismic swarm, started 20 hours before the reported eruption onset (05:15 UTC, 26 November 2012). This migration proceeded in different phases and ended when eruptive tremor, corresponding to lava flows, was recorded (at ~ 11:00 UTC, 27 November 2012). In order to get a first order approximation of the magma location, we compare the calculated seismic intensity ratios with the theoretical ones. As expected, the observations suggest that the seismicity migrated toward the eruption location. However, we explain the pre-eruptive observed ratios by a vertical migration under the northern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano followed by a lateral migration toward the eruptive vents. Another migration is also captured by this technique and coincides with a seismic swarm that started 16–20 km to the south of Plosky Tolbachik at 20:31 UTC on November 28 and lasted for more than 2 days. This seismic swarm is very similar to the seismicity preceding the 1975–76 Tolbachik eruption and can be considered as a possible aborted eruption.

Shifts in the eruptive styles at Stromboli in 2010-2014 revealed by ground-based InSAR data.

Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBInSAR) is an efficient technique for capturing short, subtle episodes of conduit pressurization in open vent volcanoes like Stromboli (Italy), because it can detect very shallow magma storage, which is difficult to identify using other methods. This technique allows the user to choose the optimal radar location for measuring the most significant deformation signal, provides an exceptional geometrical resolution, and allows for continuous monitoring of the deformation. Here, we present and model ground displacements collected at Stromboli by GBInSAR from January 2010 to August 2014. During this period, the volcano experienced several episodes of intense volcanic activity, culminated in the effusive flank eruption of August 2014. Modelling of the deformation allowed us to estimate a source depth of 482 ± 46 m a.s.l. The cumulative volume change was 4.7 ± 2.6 × 105 m3. The strain energy of the source was evaluated 3–5 times higher than the surface energy needed to open the 6–7 August eruptive fissure. The analysis proposed here can help forecast shifts in the eruptive style and especially the onset of flank eruptions at Stromboli and at similar volcanic systems (e.g. Etna, Piton de La Fournaise, Kilauea).

Infrasound from the 2012–2013 Plosky Tolbachik, Kamchatka fissure eruption

Abstract We use both regional and local infrasound data to investigate the dynamics of the 2012–2013 eruption of Tolbachik Volcano, Kamchatka, Russia during select periods of time. Analysis of regional data recorded at the IMS array IS44 in southern Kamchatka, ~ 384 km from the vent focuses on the eruption onset in November 2012, while analysis of local data focuses on activity in February and August 2013. Signals recorded from Tolbachik suggest a change in eruptive intensity possibly occurred from November 27–30, 2012. Local infrasound data recorded at distances of 100–950 m from the vent are characterized primarily by repeated, transient explosion signals indicative of gas slug bursts. Three methods are employed to pick slug burst events in February and August. The nature of slug bursts makes a monopole acoustic source model particularly fitting, permitting volume outflux and slug radius calculations for individual events. Volume outfluxes and slug radii distributions provide three possible explanations for the eruption style of Tolbachik Volcano from mid-February to late August. Cumulative outflux for slug bursts (i.e. mass of emissions from individual bursts) derived by infrasound for both February and August range from

Dynamic Uncertainty in Cost-Benefit Analysis of Evacuation Prior to a Volcanic Eruption

Many cities around the world lie in the shadow of dangerous volcanoes. This potential for disaster has led to constant extensive monitoring of possible precursors to an eruption and probabilistic techniques to transform this monitoring information into eruption probabilities. Less developed are the decision models that determine the probability level at which an evacuation should be called. A simple static criterion exists that balances the value of life lost in a missed evacuation against the cost of economic dislocation in the case of an unnecessary evacuation. However, dynamic facets such as the distribution of time to the eruption onset, the non-zero time required for an evacuation, spontaneous evacuation or return, the possible eruption size, and political pressures are not integrated into the criterion. A stochastic treatment of these variables is proposed, and the resulting effect on the evacuation dynamics derived. A detailed application to the case of a future eruption of Mount Vesuvius, expected to put at risk almost one million lives, is presented. A novel method is devised to invert the probability of eruption in a fixed time window into a statistical distribution for the time to eruption. Through an optimal cost–benefit based decision criterion, the probability threshold for immediate evacuation is calculated, and below this a time window during which the event probability can be refined before a decision must be made. The baseline model threshold is some 13 % lower than in the static model, and the sensitivity of the results to the estimated parameters is examined.

Mass ejections from the Sun

AbstractCoronal mass ejections are the most spectacular form of solar activity and they play a key role in driving space weather at the Earth. These eruptions are associated with active regions and occur throughout an active region's entire lifetime. All coronal mass ejection models invoke the presence of a twisted magnetic field configuration known as a magnetic flux rope either before or after eruption onset. The observational identification of magnetic flux ropes in the solar atmosphere using remote sensing data represents a challenging task, but theoretical models have led to the understanding that there are signatures that reveal their presence. The range of coronal mass ejection models are helping build a more complete picture of both the trigger and drivers of these eruptions.

HOW COMMON ARE HOT MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES IN THE LOW SOLAR CORONA? A STATISTICAL STUDY OF EUV OBSERVATIONS

We use data at 131, 171, and 304 Å from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory to search for hot flux ropes in 141 M-class and X-class solar flares that occurred at solar longitudes equal to or larger than 50°. Half of the flares were associated with coronal mass ejections. The goal of our survey is to assess the frequency of hot flux ropes in large flares irrespective of their formation time relative to the onset of eruptions. The flux ropes were identified in 131 Å images using morphological criteria and their high temperatures were confirmed by their absence in the cooler 171 and 304 Å passbands. We found hot flux ropes in 45 of our events (32% of the flares); 11 of them were associated with confined flares while the remaining 34 were associated with eruptive flares. Therefore almost half (49%) of the eruptive events involved a hot flux rope configuration. The use of supplementary Hinode X-Ray Telescope data indicates that these percentages should be considered as lower limits of the actual rates of occurrence of hot flux ropes in large flares.

Crystal size distributions of plagioclase in lavas from the July–August 2001 Mount Etna eruption

During the 2001 eruption of Mount Etna, two independent vent systems simultaneously erupted two different lavas. The Upper Vents system (UV), opened between 3100 and 2650 m a.s.l., emitted products that are markedly porphyritic and rich in plagioclase, while the Lower Vents system (LV), opened at 2100 and 2550 m a.s.l., emitted products that are sparsely porphyritic with scarce plagioclase. In this study, the crystal size distributions (CSDs) of plagioclase were measured for a series of 14 samples collected from all the main flows of the 2001 eruption. The coefficient of R 2 determination was used to evaluate the goodness of fit of linear models to the CSDs, and the results are represented as a grid of R 2 values by using a numerical code developed ad hoc. R 2 diagrams suggest that the 2001 products can be separated into two main groups with slightly different characteristics: plagioclase CSDs from the UVs can be modeled by three straight lines with different slopes while the plagioclase CSDs from the LVs are largely concave. We have interpreted the CSDs of the UVs as representing three different populations of plagioclases: (i) the large phenocrysts (type I), which started to crystallize at lower cooling rate in a deep reservoir from 13 to 8 months before eruption onset; (ii) the phenocrysts (type II), which crystallized largely during continuous degassing in a shallow reservoir; and (iii) the microlites, which crystallized during magma ascent immediately prior to the eruption. The plagioclase CSD curves for the LVs lava are interpreted to reflect strong and rapid changes in undercooling induced by strong and sudden degassing.

Herpes zoster granulomatous dermatitis: histopathologic findings in a case series.

Several types of cutaneous reactions have been reported to arise at the site of herpes zoster (HZ) infection weeks to years after the acute disease. Among these, granulomatous reactions are the most frequently reported. In this study, we describe the spectrum of histopathologic findings of HZ granulomatous reactions observed in 26 patients with cutaneous lesions confined to the area of previous HZ eruption and compare them with biopsy specimens taken from 25 patients with acute HZ. All patients with persistent reactions from whom history was available presented within 12 weeks of the onset of the acute eruption. The most frequent findings were interstitial granulomatous dermatitis with lymphocytes, histiocytes and multinucleated giant cells displaying elastophagocytosis and a perineural, perivascular and perieccrine mononuclear inflammatory infiltrate rich in lymphocytes and plasma cells. Less common features included intra-arrector and peri-arrector pili granulomas, follicular dilatation and hyperkeratosis, and vasculitis. Specimens from patients with acute HZ were found to have small numbers of perineural plasma cells and most had subtle granulomatous inflammation, in patterns similar to the group with late granulomatous reactions. Our findings suggest that granulomatous reactions to varicella zoster virus represent a persistent evolving inflammatory reaction after acute infection.

Constraints on unrest in the Tolbachik volcanic zone in Kamchatka prior the 2012–13 flank fissure eruption of Plosky Tolbachik volcano from local seismicity and GPS data

Abstract A new fissure eruption began on 27 November 2012 on the southern slope of Plosky Tolbachik volcano, which is located in central Kamchatka, Russia, and is part of the Klyuchevskoy volcano group. We analyzed the displacement of the earth surface and the seismicity during several months before the eruption onset. According to seismic and GPS data the eruption was preceded by about 4–5 months (July–November 2012) of synchronous crustal deformation and seismicity. The seismic anomaly comprises low energy level seismicity (mainly M = 1.2–2.3) under Plosky Tolbachik volcano at a depth of less than 5 km. In the 2–3 weeks immediately preceding the eruption the rate of seismicity and the amount of radiated seismic energy exceeded the long-term average values (2000–2011) by more than 40 times. The deformation anomaly was recorded by displacement of the GPS points at distances from 20 to 60 km to the north of Tolbachik. The principal axis of the compressive strain was approximately directed towards the Tolbachik eruption site. The permanent GPS network detected radial compression and tangential stretching. The compressive strain reached about 10 − 7 prior to eruption onset. The comparable duration of seismic and deformation anomalies (~ 4–5 months before the eruption) is consistent with a common origin, connected to magma rising from depth, and is interpreted as indicating that they were medium-term precursors to the eruption. Data recorded during this unrest episode of the Tolbachik volcanic zone will contribute to understanding of the reawakening of volcanic activity in this region and others worldwide with similar characteristics.

Assimilating aircraft-based measurements to improve forecast accuracy of volcanic ash transport

The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash transport forecast in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be run with Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) such as plume height and mass eruption rate as input, and with data assimilation techniques to continuously improve the initial conditions of the forecast. Reliable and accurate ash measurements are crucial for providing a successful ash clouds advice. In this paper, simulated aircraft-based measurements, as one type of volcanic ash measurements, will be assimilated into a transport model to identify the potential benefit of this kind of observations in an assimilation system. The results show assimilating aircraft-based measurements can significantly improve the state of ash clouds, and further providing an improved forecast as aviation advice. We also show that for advice of aeroplane flying level, aircraft-based measurements should be preferably taken from this level to obtain the best performance on it. Furthermore it is shown that in order to make an acceptable advice for aviation decision makers, accurate knowledge about uncertainties of ESPs and measurements is of great importance.

Effect of volcanic ash over Orthoptera survival in Patagonia

The aim of this work was to evaluate the ash toxicity from the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcanic complex on the survival of two Orthopteran species: the grasshoper Dichroplus vittigerum and the green locust Brugilis sp. Two grain size were used to evaluate the effect of volcanic eruption on these insects. Chemical analyses from this eruption proved that the ashes were very abrasive and predominantly composed of silica shards (SiO 2 ) and aluminia (Al 2 O 3 ), two substances with insecticidal properties. In northern Patagonia, both orthopteran species are polyphagous chewers on grasses and dicots. The laboratory data showed that sustained exposure to volcanic ash induced mortality in adult grasshoppers. Survival of D. vittigerum significantly decreased once exposed to the two ash granulometries. In turn, Brugilis sp. survival was significantly reduced when exposed to fine grain ashes. These results suggest that the onset of the volcanic eruption with the consequent suspension of the pyroclastic material in the air might negatively impacted these orthopteran due to the mortality of adults. The ash from the Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcanic complex could be compared to the application of non-persistent and broad spectrum insecticide, causing a temporary reduction in orthopteran populations. (Keywords: grasshoppers, inert dust, locusts, Patagonia, survival)