One-year Age Groups Research Articles

NEW APPROACH TOWARDS THE PROBLEM OF SOMATIC CRITERIA OF SECULAR TRENDS. SEXUAL SOMATIC DIMORPHISM

Introduction. The goal of study is description of secular dynamics of sex dimorphism (SD) of height, weight, chest girth of children aged 9 years and teenagers 13 years old from Russia and neighboring countries through 1920–2010. Materials and methods. The main source of data — materials of books on physical development of children and adolescents from cities and rural regions of Russia and USSR, collected and processed according to the universal methodical standards of Research Institute of Hygiene of children and adolescents. The quantitative estimation of SD value was held using Kullback divergence. One-year age groups, contrastive in biological essence, are under discussion. The estimation of the vector and level of associations of SD of anthropometric traits and secular factor was held using correlation analysis. The analysis of local patterns of secular SD dynamics of separate traits was carried out. Results. Secular variability of height and weight SD of 9-year-old children is not significant. While secular dynamics of three body dimensions of 13-year-old teenagers is significant, the highest determination coefficient is fixed for weight. For Moscow samples the decrease of height and weight SD is fixed through the historic interval 1960s – 70s with the following recovery up to the level of 1920s in 2000s. Temporal dynamics of SD of 9-year-old children of St. Petersburg through the interval 1960s – 2000s consists of macrosomization of girls; the tendency for 13-year-old teenagers is opposite. Temporal dynamics of somatic SD of 9-year-old Russian children of Kazan reveals stability through the interval 1960th-1990th; for 13-year-old teenagers’ parameters of transversal body development demonstrate secular stability, as to height – boys compensate their lag compared to girls. For Kirovsk city (Murmansk region) through the interval 1950s – 1970s temporal fluctuations of height and weight SD of 9-year-old children are less than 0,2 standard deviations; height and weight SD of 13-year-old teenagers reveal temporal increase (0,4–0,6 standard deviations). Conclusion. The results confirm the importance of somatic SD as the criterion of secular dynamics for 13-year-old teenagers and witness, as a whole, to the temporal stability of SD during second childhood (9 years). Local differences do not contribute significantly to the intensity of secular dynamics of SD. The process of secular macrosomization of one sex as compared to the other is not the exclusive prerogative of boys and male teenagers.

Has COVID-19 affected regional mortality from acute coronary artery disease? (comparison of two periods of 2017-2019 and 2020-2022)

Aim. To assess the changes of mortality from acute coronary artery disease (CAD) in the Russian regions during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020-2022 in comparison with the prepandemic period (2017-2019).Material and methods. Rosstat data on the average annual population and mortality rate in one-year age groups for 82 regions Russian were used. In the brief Nomenclature of Causes of Death of Rosstat, the codes of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision (ICD-10) are grouped as follows: I21.0-9 (acute primary) myocardial infarction (MI), I22.0-9 (recurrent MI), I20, I24.1-9 (other types of acute coronary artery disease), U07.1 and U07.2 (coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)). The regional average standardized mortality rates (SMR; M±SD) were calculated using the European population standard using the direct standardization method per 100 thousand population. Comparisons were made using the nonparametric Wilcoxon t-test (differences were considered significant at p<0,05).Results. A decrease in the regional average SMR (per 100 thousand population) in the pandemic compared to the pre-pandemic period was revealed: from the sum of all acute CAD types — from 51,24±31,98 to 50,21±33,38 and from repeated MI — from 7,65±5,42 to 4,80±4,84; increase in SMR from acute MI — from 24,00±10,1 to 25,57±11,55, from other acute CAD types — from 19,58±25,23 to 19,83±26,21. Significant regional variability was noted in both the dynamics of the SMR from three acute CAD types, as well as the minimum and maximum SMR. Only in 2 regions in the pandemic period there was an increase in SMR from each of the three acute CAD types compared to the pre-pandemic period. In 18 regions, there was a decrease in SMR from each of the three forms, and in the rest, multidirectional changes were noted. There was no correlation between SMR for COVID-19 and SMR for acute CAD (r=0,034; p=0,76).Conclusion. The COVID-19 pandemic did not have a significant impact on the regional average SMR from acute CAD. The significant decrease in SMR from recurrent MI is likely due to choice of the initial cause of death.

Dynamics and variability of regional mortality rates from liver and biliary tract diseases in the period from 2019 to 2021

Objective: to assess the variability and dynamics of mortality from liver and bile duct diseases in the regions of Russia for the period of 2019–2021. Materials and methods. Rosstat data on the number of deaths according to form C51 and on the average annual population by one-year age groups by gender and age were used. Standardized mortality rates (SMRs) were calculated for 12 causes of death related to liver and bile duct diseases and included in the Brief Nomenclature of Causes of Death of Rosstat (BNCD) for 82 regions of the Russian Federation. Results. The mean SMRs from all liver and bile duct diseases in 2020 (42.4 ± 11.9 per 100,000 population) and 2021 (42.8 ± 13.2) were higher than in 2019 (39.4 ± 11.4), with annual increases observed in 38 regions, decreases in 7, and mixed trends in 37. The contribution of liver diseases to all-cause mortality was 3.95 ± 0.91% in 2019, 3.65 ± 0.85% in 2020, and 3.26 ± 0.92% in 2021. The highest SMRs were registered for liver fibrosis and cirrhosis, while the lowest SMRs were for acute hepatitis. Considerable variability in SMRs was observed between regions in 2021: the maximum SMR for liver cancer was more than 14 times higher than the minimum, while for liver fibrosis and cirrhosis it was 25 times higher. Hypotheses explaining the reasons for these differences are discussed. Conclusions. Significant regional variability in SMRs does not allow for a stable trend towards reducing mortality from these causes to be identified.

Can We Rely on Projections of the Immigrant Population? The Case of Norway

Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of the immigrant population of Norway and their Norwegian-born children (“second generation”), grouped by three categories of country background: 1. West European countries plus the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand; 2. Central and East European countries that are members of the European Union; 3. other countries. We show how to use a probabilistic forecast to assess the reliability of projections of the immigrant population and their children. We employ the method of random shares using data for immigrants and their children for 2000–2021. We model their age- and sex-specific shares relative to the whole population. Relational models are used for the age patterns in these shares, and time series models to extrapolate the parameters of the age patterns. We compute a probabilistic forecast for six population sub-groups with immigration background, and one for non-immigrants. The probabilistic forecast is calibrated against Statistics Norway’s official population projection. We find that a few population trends are quite certain: strong increases to 2060 in the size of the immigrant population (more specifically those who belong to country group 3) and of Norwegian-born children of immigrants. However, prediction intervals around the forecasts of immigrants and their children by one-year age groups are so wide that these forecasts are not reliable.

Mortality rates of acute types of coronary artery disease and sudden cardiac death in the Russian regions in 2019-2021

Aim. To compare standardized mortality rates (SMR) from acute types of coronary artery disease (CAD) and sudden cardiac death (SCD) with an assessment of their regional variability in the Russian Federation in 2019-2021.Material and methods. Rosstat data on the average annual population and the number of deaths in one-year age groups for 2019-2021 in 82 Russian subjects from acute types of CAD and SCD were analyzed using following ICD-10 codes: I21.0-9 (acute primary) myocardial in­­farction (MI), I22.0-9 (recurrent MI), I20, I24.1-9 (other forms of acute coronary artery disease), I46.1 (SCD). SMR was calculated based on the European standard per 100,000 population. Average regional SMR values (M±SD), coefficients of variation (СV), nonparametric Wilcoxon T-test with Bonferroni adjustment were calculated (differences were considered significant at р<0,05).Results. The average regional values of SMR from the sum of causes (acute types of CAD and SCD for 2019, 2020 and 2021) did not change significantly and amounted to 52,3±33,72; 53,84±36,17; 53,58±34,55, respectively. The annual increase in the average regional SMR for this period was noted from acute MI — 23,59±11,01; 24,85±10,92; 25,73±11,38, and other OF CAD — 19,47±26,17, 19,78±27,45; 20,54±26,79, respectively, in 2019, 2020 and 2021. A significant decrease in SMR occurred only from recurrent MI: from 7,19±5,38 to 6,97±5,97 in 2019-2020 (p=0,048) and to 4,99±4,25 in 2021 (p=0,023 to 2020). In 18 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, an annual decrease in SMR was noted, and in the rest — multidirectional changes. The increase in SMR from acute MI took place in 23 subjects of the Russian Federation with a minimum CV in 2020 and 2021 (44%). The maximum CV for SMD was recorded in 2021 (169%).Conclusion. Mortality from acute types of CAD and SMD for 2019-2021 in the Russian Federation was characterized by a stable level and high regional variability. The problem of improving the criteria for establishing acute types of CAD and SMD as the initial cause of death remains relevant in the absence or insufficiency of data for universal criteria for MI.

Trends in mortality rates from chronic forms of coronary heart disease in the regions of the Russian Federation in 2017–2021

Objective. To assess the trend and variability of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) from chronic forms of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the regions of the Russian Federation (RF) in 2017–2021. Material and methods. The investigation used the 2017–21 Russian Federal State Statistics Service (RFSS) data on the average annual population and the number of deaths in the one-year age groups in 82 RF regions on the basis of the RFSS “Brief Death Cause Nomenclature” (BDCN). The SMRs were calculated on the basis of the European standard per 100,000 population for each region; then the average regional SMRs related to the chronic forms of CHD were determined using 4 BDCN accounting lines. Results. For the period from 2017 to 2019, a decrease was noted in the average regional SMRs from all forms of CHD (from 183.9±68.5 to 176.8±65.3 cases per 100,000 population), but in 2020 and 2021, an increase was recorded in SMRs from CHD (204.3±75.4 and 207.4±76.9 cases per 100,000 population, respectively) as the proportion of these causes decreased in the structure of all-cause mortality in the COVID-19 pandemic period (18.4±7.1% in 2017 and 15.8±5.4% in 2021). there was a decrease in the average regional SMRs from all forms of chronic heart diseases (CHD) (from 183.9±68.5 to 176.8±65.3 cases per 100,000 population), but in 2020 and 2021, an increase in the SMRs from CCHD (204.3±75.4 and 207.4±76.9 cases per 100,000 population, respectively) hand in hand with a reduction in the proportion of these causes in the COVID-19 pandemic period (18.4±7.1% in 2017 and 15.8±5.4% in 2021). Results. For the period from 2017 to 2019, over a 5-year period, an annual consistent decrease was recorded in the SMR from CHD in none Russia’s regions; their annual rise was seen in 4 regions; whereas an unstable trend was noted with a decrease and a rise in SMRs in the others. There was a considerable interregional variability of SMRs from all forms of CHD (in 2017, the maximal SMR differed from the minimal one by 60 times) and from individual forms of CHD (in 2020, the regional minimum and maximum SMRs from I25.1 differed by 500 times). The paper presents hypotheses about the causes of the revealed differences and proposals to modify the accounting of deaths from CHD. Conclusion. There were substantial regional differences with an unstable 5-year trend in SMRs from CHD in the entire and individual accounting forms included in this group in accordance with the ICD. The fact that there are no unified criteria for and approaches to identifying the individual forms of CHD as the main cause of death, including that in the presence of multimorbid pathology complicates understanding the causes of death.

Changes of regional mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases and cognitive disorders in Russia over 2019-2021

Aim. To analyze mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and diseases associated with cognitive impairment (CI) in the regions of the Russian Federation.Material and methods. We analyzed Rosstat mortality data in 82 Russian regions in mid-year population in one-year age groups for 2019-2021. Eleven groups of causes have been formed, standardized mortality rates (SMRs), average regional SMRs, and their changes over time was assessed.Results. In total, SMRs from CVD and CI increased from 551,4±84,9 in 2019 to 622,6±98,5 per 100 thousand population in 2020 and decreased in 2021 to 612,6±106 per 100 thousand population. However, its proportion in all-cause mortality decreased by almost 10% (46,97±4,6 in 2021 and 55,98±4,6% in 2019). The growth of SMRs from year to year was noted in 30 regions; in other regions, unstable changes were noted. The proportion of CVD causes from all-cause mortality was 30,5±5,8% in 2019, 29,1±5,7% in 2020 and 25,95±5,56% in 2021 (p<0,0001). The largest SMRs and their proportion in the mortality structure are in group 1 (chronic coronary artery disease (CAD) — an average of 17,8±5,8% over 3 years) and group 6 (causes with unclear criteria for the disease, but associated with CI — 13,9±5,9%). The contribution of the second (acute coronary artery disease — 4,6±2,8%), the third (defects, cardiopathies, endo- and myocarditis — 4,8±2,7%) and the fifth (stroke — 6,1±1,7%) groups of causes are much smaller. The sixth place in terms of SMRs and contribution to all-cause mortality is occupied by alcohol-associated causes (1,8±1,1%). The proportion of other causes (hypertension, Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, other mental disorders) is small.Conclusion. When developing and implementing programs aimed at reducing mortality, results obtained should be taken into account. Significant regional differences in the rate and changes of SMRs over time indicate the need to unify the criteria for the underlying cause of death, especially in multimorbid patients.

Demographic resource for data analysis and visualization

The demographic resource is designed to visualize demographic data in the Internet. The article provides a brief description of the database structure and examples of reporting forms. The following open sources of demographic information were used to develop the resource: the Human Mortality Database and Federal State Statistics Service. The use of the demographic resource provides access to basic demographic characteristics in the context of the Russian regions since 1990. In addition to Russia and its regions, this resource contains demographic information on a number of countries represented in The Human Mortality Database. The developed bilingual (Russian and English) interface enables forming both tabular and graphical reporting forms – demographic age-sex pyramids with one-year age groups, dynamic graphs and heatmaps of mortality rates. This demographic resource can be used for educational purposes, for developing analytical materials, reports and presentations. Data can also be uploaded in csv format for further analysis and use. The resource is available at: http://demography.infoarchives.ru

Mortality from arterial hypertension in the regions of the Russian Federation in the period from 2013 to 2019.

Aim To analyze the dynamics of mortality from arterial hypertension (AH) between 2013 and 2019.Material and methods Arterial hypertension (AH) is one of the most common diseases. At the same time, there are no unified international criteria for establishing the primary cause of death from AH. Data were studied for the period between the end of the program for modernization of health care and the start of the Federal Project "Program for combatting cardiovascular diseases". Data for 2013-2019 by AH-related codes were provided by the Federal Service of State Statistics on request via the C15 form, "Mortality by gender and one-year age groups". A standardized mortality ratio, its mean value, standard deviation, and a coefficient of variation were determined for each "cause". The standardized mortality ratio was calculated using the European standard.Results In Russia during the studied period, the standardized mortality ratio for the death from AH yearly decreased (1.7 times for 6 years; the standardized mortality ratio decreased 1.15 times). However, only in 7 regions, the standardized mortality ratio yearly decreased while in the other regions of the Russian Federation, the standardized mortality ratio changed wavily. In 17 regions of the Russian Federation, the standardized mortality ratio increased in 2019 compared to 2013, including the 31.7 time increase in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania. In the Penza Region and the Republic of Kalmykia in 2018, there were no cases of death related with AH. The highest value of the standardized mortality ratio was observed in the Chukotka Autonomous District in 2019 (85.13 per 100,000 population) and the lowest value was observed in the Penza Region (0.14 per 100,000 population). The ratio of maximal to minimal values of the standardized mortality ratio was 622. The coefficient of variation for regional standardized mortality ratios increased by 42.3 % (from 86.8 to 123.5 %).Conclusion Although the standardized mortality ratio for death from AH, in general, decreased in the Russian Federation, Russian regions showed variable dynamics and a high variability of the standardized mortality ratio. The study results together with results of international studies showed that differences in standardized mortality ratios for death from AH are largely due to different approaches to determining the primary cause of death. An international consensus on the terminology and criteria for determining the primary cause of death is required.

Regional differences in cardiac mortality rates in Russia: the role of statistical features

Aim. To analyze the contribution of cardiac causes to all-cause mortality, to characterize the differences in standardized mortality rates (SMRs) in Russian regions, as well as to identify promising directions for improving establishment of cardiovascular death and its coding.Material and methods. We used the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data on the mortality rate and the average annual population in one-year age groups for 2019. To calculate the SMR, the European Standard Population was used. For each cardiac death, the SMR from 23 causes was calculated, which were combined into 4 groups, and for each of these groups, the regional mean and standard deviation of SMR in Russian regions were estimated.Results. In 2019, the cardiac SMR in Russian regions was 301,02±77,67, which corresponded to 30,5±5,8% of all death causes. At the same time, the coefficient of variation of regional cardiac SMR was 25,8%. In general, in 60,9±13,8% of cases, the cause of cardiac death was chronic diseases, mainly related to atherosclerosis. The proportion of deaths from acute types of coronary artery disease was 17,3±9,7%, deaths not associated with atherosclerosis (heart defects, myocardial diseases, etc.) — 17,5±8,2%, deaths associated with hypertension — 4,2±5,2%. The coefficient of variation of regional SMR was 34,66, 64,47, 50,99 and 122,7, respectively.Conclusion. Significant regional differences in SMR from certain cardiac causes and groups of causes, as well as their contribution to mortality pattern, were revealed. It is necessary to continue the research on the methodology of statistical recording of certain cardiovascular diseases.

English

BACKGROUND Paediatric calvarial mass lesions are common and can have prognostic and therapeutic implications based on the type of lesions. The spectrum of lesions can extend from benign lesions like cephalhaematoma, which is a common postnatal swelling in the paediatric scalp to severe lesions like neuroblastoma metastases. Therefore, proper diagnosis of these lesions is of prime importance in day to day practice which can help in accurate management of these lesions. This study was conducted to evaluate the role of computed tomography (CT) in the assessment of paediatric calvarial masses. METHODS In our prospective observational study, during a period of 1 year (October 2019 to October 2020) 26 children with visible swelling on the calvarium were subjected to CT examination. The imaging features of various paediatric calvarial lesions on CT were noted. RESULTS Out of 26 paediatric patients, which included infants from 1 day of life to children of 7 years age, the most common age of presentation was less than one-year age group. The most common type of calvarial mass lesion was cephalhaematoma and the next most common mass lesion was dermoid cyst. CT could diagnose all the lesions based on the image morphology with clear delineation of their extent. 16 cases had isolated soft tissue involvement (cephal haematoma, sub galeal haematoma, lipoma, dermoid cyst) whereas ten lesions like encephalocele, osteomyelitis, Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH), fibrous dysplasia, neuroblastoma metastases, lymphoma deposits had both soft tissue and bone involvement. CONCLUSIONS Accurate detection, characterisation and delineation of the lesions are important in management of the various paediatric calvarial masses. CT is a useful imaging tool in confirming the diagnosis and also for anatomical delineation in certain cases requiring surgical management. It also helps in detecting associated intracranial extension of the lesions. KEYWORDS Calvarial Masses, Paediatric, Computed Tomography

Comparison of cytology and human papillomavirus-based primary testing in cervical screening programs in the Nordic countries.

To compare primary test positivity in cytology and human papillomavirus-based screening between different Nordic cervical cancer screening programs using harmonized register data. This study utilized individual-level data available in national databases in Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden. Cervical test data from each country were converted to standard format and aggregated by calculating the number of test episodes for every test result for each calendar year and one-year age group and test method. Test positivity was estimated as the proportion of positive test results of all primary test episodes with a valid test result for "any positive" and "clearly positive" results. The age-adjusted rate ratio for any positive test results in primary human papillomavirus-based screening compared to cytology was 1.66 (95% CI 1.64-1.68). The age-adjusted rate ratio for clearly positive test results was 1.02 (95% CI 1.00-1.05). A decreasing rate ratio by age was seen in both any positive and clearly positive test results. Test positivity increased over time in Iceland, Norway, and Sweden but slightly decreased in Finland. The probability of any positive test result was higher in human papillomavirus testing than in primary cytology, even though the cross-sectional detection of a clearly positive test result was the same. Human papillomavirus testing can still lead to an improved longitudinal sensitivity through a larger number of follow-up tests and the opportunity to identify women with a persistent human papillomavirus infection. Further research on histologically verified precancerous lesions is needed in primary as well as repeat testing.

Exterior and interior indicators of development of Tsigai breed young sheep on the background of diet supplement with iodine in liposomal form

The effect of the liposomal form of antioxidants with the inclusion of organic iodine on the growth of young Tsigai sheep was described in the article. The liposomal form allowed increasing average daily gain of young animals by 11.9 % and live weight by 10.8 % compared to the control one-year age group. The animals of the experimental group were characterized by more embodied meat forms according to the analysis of their exterior. Interior indicators were represented by the increased content of RBC that reached 1.8×1012 cells per liter or 25.7 % (p≤0.001), and WBC – 1.80×10⁹ cells per liter or 20.0 % (p≤0.01) at 7-months age; 1.9×1012 cells per liter (p≤0.001) and 1.74×10⁹ cells per liter (p≤0.05) at 12 months, respectively. This fact was due to the increased content of monocytes and neutrophils: the difference between the control and experimental groups of animals was within 1.1% and 0.6% at the age of 12 months.

Does peak bone mass correlate with peak bone strength? Cross-sectional normative dual energy X-ray absorptiometry data in 1052 men aged 18\u201328\u2009years

BackgroundAreal bone mineral density (aBMD) estimated by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is used to estimate peak bone mass, define osteoporosis and predict fracture. However, as aBMD is calculated as bone mineral content (BMC) divided by the scanned area, aBMD displays an inverse relationship with bone size. In a skeleton that is increasing in size, this is a problem, as bone size is an independent factor that determines bone strength. It could therefore be questioned whether peak aBMD is the period with greatest bone strength, a period that in the hip then would occur in ages 16–19. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether there are changes in bone size in men after age 18 that may influence peak bone strength. Another aim was to provide updated normative DXA data.MethodsWe scanned left femoral neck by DXA in a cross-sectional study with a population-based selection of 1052 men aged 18–28, and then registered bone mineral content (BMC, gram), aBMD (gram/cm2) and bone area (cm2) in each one-year age group. We performed analyses of variance (ANOVA) to evaluate whether there were differences in these traits between the age groups. We then used Pearson’s correlation analyses to test for trends with ageing after peak bone mass was reached.ResultsWe found the highest absolute femoral neck aBMD at age 19, with statistically significant differences between the one-year age groups in BMC, aBMD, and bone area (all p < 0.05). From peak bone mass onwards (n = 962), there are negative correlations between age and BMC (r = − 0.07; p < 0.05) and age and aBMD (r = − 0.12; p < 0.001), and positive correlation between age and bone area (r = 0.06; p < 0.05).ConclusionAs femoral neck bone size in young adult men becomes larger after peak bone mass, it could be questioned whether DXA estimated peak aBMD correlates with peak bone strength. We infer that aBMD must be interpreted with care in individuals with a growing skeleton, since skeletal strength may then increase, in spite of decreasing aBMD. This should be taken into account when performing DXA measurements in these ages.

Fertility differentiation according to female education levels in Russia: current situation and forecast scenarios

This paper analyzes the differentiation of birth rates of Russia women by education levels. Two levels are specified: 1) complete and incomplete higher education; 2) secondary professional education and below). First of all, the mean number of children born in real cohorts is calculated for each of the two education levels. For this, we use the micro-databases of the 2010 census and the 2015 micro-census. The data of the Sample Survey of the Reproductive Plans of Population are used additionally (including in the construction of age models of fertility). We estimate mean numbers of children born in one-year age groups in real cohorts by female education levels at 1.5 for women with complete and incomplete higher education and 1.8 for women with secondary professional education and below. Based on the obtained estimates and the analyzed data, we construct three forecast scenarios of the future dynamics of fertility rates for two levels of education. In our opinion, mean number of children born to real cohorts of women will likely stay the same for both education levels, as will the age-related fertility model — so this scenario is considered as the basic and the most likely one. The forecast scenario of mean number of children dropping to the lowest values that were observed in real cohorts of women of the 1960s — the first half of the 1970s is considered as a low variant. In determining the high variant of the forecast scenario we take into account the data on the expected and desired number of children among women with different education levels. Finally, we proceed to calculate the mean numbers of children born in real cohorts by female education levels according to each of the three forecast scenarios up till the cohort of women born in 2035, who will enter their reproductive age in 2050.

Infant mortality in the population of the Cossack Ukraine in the second half of the ХVІІІ-th century

У статті вивчається дитяча смертність в населенні Гетьманщини ХVІІІ ст. Основним джерелом дослідження є частина про «померлих» метричних книг церкви Різдва Христового містечка Яреськи Миргородського полку. За допомогою історико-демографічних методик встановлено основні коефіцієнти смертності, її характеристики. На основі даних коефіцієнтів висловлено припущення про основні причини смертності, чинники, що впливали на її коливання. Встановлено, що дитяча смертність мала яскраво виражену сезонність, що визначалася особливостями клімату, температурними коливаннями, забезпеченістю їжею та питною водою, спалахами інфекційних хвороб та мікрокліматом житлового простору. Загалом така смертність була притаманною аграрному традиційному суспільству, що не знало професійної медицини та медико-санітарного догляду.

Mortality modeling using probability distributions. APPLICATION in greek mortality data

A number of different probability distributions describing age-specific mortality have been proposed. The most common ones, Gompertz and Gompertz - Makeham distributions have received wide acceptance and describe fairly well mortality data over a period of 60–70 years, but generally do not give the desired results for old and/or young ages. This paper proposes a new mathematical distribution (thereafter named ANBE), that results from the combination of the above distributions with Beta distribution. Beta distribution has been chosen for its flexibility to different dataset. Tested for its goodness of fit, ANBE shows a higher predictive ability for males and females, especially at higher ages. This new probability density function could also be applied in populations other than the Greek, subject to appropriate parameter detection (e.g. Maximum Likelihood). The application relies on mortality data collected and provided by ELSTAT for year 2011. Population data were used in order to calculate age and sex-specific mortality rates based on the estimated mean population of one-year interval age-group for the year concerned. According to our findings, the B.ANBE mortality model presents satisfactory results on appropriate evaluation criteria (AIC, BIC).

The Years of Life Lost as a Result of Road Traffic Accidents In Russia in 2000-2012

The road traumatism and its aftermath are global and increasing problem. In 2014 Russia ranked first position in relation to number of deaths because of road accidents per one million of population among countries being members of the UN European economic commission. The purpose of study is to establish gender age characteristics and dynamics of burden of road traffic mortality in Russia. The non-clinical observation study was carried out covering years of life lost as a result of premature mortality due to road traffic accidents in Russia and standard of life expectancy on one-year age groups for males and females during 2000-2012. In 2012, the age interval of 20-34 years covered 50% of total number of years of life lost because of road traffic accidents in males and 37% in females. During the analyzed period, decreasing of number of years of life lost per thousand males/females occurred in all age groups. The dramatic decreasing of rate of increase of losses during 2007-2009 ended in 2010 and their increasing began factually in all age groups. In case of males aged 15-19 years it was thus much significant that number of years of life lost per thousand of males in 2012 (29.8 years per thousand of males) factually returned to level of 2000 (30.8 years per thousand of males).

MYCOPLASMA OVIPNEUMONIA: ISOLATION AND MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION IN DISEASED SHEEP FLOCK IN DELTA REGION, EGYPT

Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae (M. ovipneumoniae) was isolated from nasal swabs obtained from sheep with respiratory manifestations in delta region, Egypt; wherein 31 sheep with different ages were suffer from nasal discharge, cough, pneumonia, keratoconjunctivitis in a flock of sheep containing 134 sheep. By mycoplasma culture, nine samples were positive from 31examined samples (29%). M.ovipneumoniae is detected in 33.33% (3 out of 9 isolates of mycoplasma) using PCR with specific primer. The high percentage of isolation found in more than one-year age group, strains were isolated from the nasal swabs and no detection from ocular swabs. Isolated M. ovipneumoni strain subjected to sequencing and was designated as NMD-EG016, which showed a 94.6% 16S-23S RNA intergenic spacer sequence identity with three USA strains (M. ovipneumoniae-2014-2278-10, Mycoplasma.sp. clone-10OR05 and M.ovipneumoniae-1992-6751-17) and >94.4with standard strain ATCC 29419.

Effect of age on the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a Chinese middle-aged and elderly population: The Shanghai Changfeng Study

Background and aimsGlycated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥6.5% (or 48mmol/mol) has been recommended as a new diagnostic criterion for diabetes; however, limited literature is available regarding the effect of age on the HbA1c for diagnosing diabetes and the causes for this age effect remain unknown. In this study, we investigated whether and why age affects the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes in a community-based Chinese population.MethodsIn total, 4325 participants without previously known diabetes were enrolled in this study. Participants were stratified by age. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted for each age group and the area under the curve (AUC) represented the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes defined by the plasma glucose criteria. The area under the ROC curve in each one-year age group was defined as AUCage. Multiple regression analyses were performed to identify factors inducing the association between age and AUCage based on the changes in the β and P values of age.ResultsThe current threshold of HbA1c (≥6.5% or 48mmol/mol) showed low sensitivity (35.6%) and high specificity (98.9%) in diagnosing diabetes. ROC curve analyses showed that the diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c in the ≥75 years age group was significantly lower than that in the 45–54 years age group (AUC: 0.755 vs. 0.878; P<0.001). Pearson correlation analysis showed that the AUCage of HbA1c was negatively correlated with age (r = -0.557, P = 0.001). When adjusting the red blood cell (RBC) count in the multiple regression model, the negative association between age and AUCage disappeared, with the regression coefficient of age reversed to 0.001 and the P value increased to 0.856.ConclusionsThe diagnostic efficiency of HbA1c for diabetes decreased with aging, and this age effect was induced by the decreasing RBC count with age. HbA1c is unsuitable for diagnosing diabetes in elderly individuals because of their physiologically decreased RBC count.