Dependency Ratio Research Articles

Ethnicity, social connectedness, and the rural-urban food continuum: Food security among urban informal settlement dwellers in Kenya

Rapid urbanization in developing countries is increasingly becoming an important development issue due to its negative effects on poverty and food insecurity in cities. This study investigated the determinants of the food insecurity gap among urban households living in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, and the role of social connectedness and the rural-urban food continuum. Using panel data collected from 385 households using a two-stage cluster sample design, the study applied panel data regression and decomposition models to understand the factors affecting food insecurity access scores and weekly household food consumption expenditure. Descriptive results showed a score of 8.00 for the pooled sample on the household food access scale, with households from other regions having a lower score (7.94) than those from the Western region (8.32). 43 % of households from Western Kenya engaged in farming in rural areas (43 %) and had higher social connectedness (45 %) than households from other regions. The results indicate that dependency ratio, income, savings, social connectedness, rural visits, and dietary knowledge are significant factors impacting food security. Decomposition of levels and change in food insecurity revealed that endowments from the random effects model contributed to reducing the food insecurity gap between households originating from the Western region and those from other regions. The study highlights the importance of considering regional factors and promoting social connectedness and rural-urban linkages in addressing food insecurity in informal urban settlements.

Causal relationship between household consumption transition and CO2 emission in China: a dynamic panel model.

The mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) generated from household consumption, accounting for 52% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions, plays a pivotal role in China's pursuit of reaching a carbon peak by 2030. The study used three waves of nationally representative longitudinal data, energy statistics data, and input-output table to estimate household CO2 emissions (HCEs) in China at the micro-scale. The dynamic relationship between household consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was explored by applying maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling (ML-SEM) with panel data. The results indicate that per capita HCE level in a given year appears to be positively associated with HCE level for the same household in the previous year. A U-shaped relationship between consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was confirmed, as well as the reinforcement effect of income on the impacts of consumption pattern transition. The increase in consumption propensity, household income, share of wage-income, household asset values, and house space results in higher HCEs per capita. The family size and dependency ratio have a negative relationship with HCEs, whereas households that are female-oriented and more Internet-dependent tend to produce more CO2. Exploring the consumption transition of households is crucial for reducing CO2 emissions at the household level in China.

Rural Households' Demand Status for Mitigation of Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC Invasion and Its Determinant Factors in Ethiopia: Empirical Evidence from Afar National Regional State.

Ethiopia is among the world's poorest nations, and its economy is growing extremely slowly; thus, the government's budget to manage environmental amenities is not always sufficient. Thus, for the provision of environmental management services such as the eradication of Prosopis juliflora, the participation of local households and other stakeholders is crucial. This study is therefore initiated with the objective of assessing rural households' demands for mitigating Prosopis juliflora invasion in the Afar Region of Ethiopia. A multistage sampling technique was employed to obtain the 313 sample rural households that were used in the analysis, and those sample households were selected randomly and independently from the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of Afar National Regional State, Ethiopia. In doing this, a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model was used to determine factors affecting rural households' demands for mitigating Prosopis juliflora invasion. Consequently, as per the inferential statistical results, there was a significant mean/percentage difference between willing and nonwilling households for the hypothesized variables, except for some variables such as farm experience; years lived in the area, distance from the market, and dependency ratio. Furthermore, the seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model result indicates that sex, family size, tenure security, livestock holding, frequency of extension contact, and years lived in the area were important factors influencing the willingness to participate in Prosopis juliflora management practices positively, whereas age, off-farm/nonincome, and bid value affected willingness to pay negatively and significantly. Hence, to improve the participation level of households, policymakers should target these variables.

Evaluate the Correlation Between Identified Social Issues and Ultra-low Fertility Rates in Hong Kong

Hong Kong has witnessed a significant and continuous decline in its total fertility rate (TFR) over the past few decades, hitting an ultra-low level. This article investigates various social issues that would probably contribute to this decline as previous studies suggest, including the women’s role incongruence, the extremely heavy financial burden, and the limited scope of government policies in Hong Kong society. The persistence of such low TFR in societies would deteriorate aging problems, increase the old-age dependency ratio, and shrink the labor force. These issues are thereby posing significant challenges to Hong Kong’s economic and political sustainability. Hence, it is necessary for policymakers to introduce effective policies to improve TFR by figuring out where the problem derives. To comprehensively comprehend the correlation between ultra-low TFR and identified social issues, this research employs two statistical models which are multiple linear regression and decision tree analysis. The results reveal a strong correlation between low TFR and some identified social problems, while also elucidating the coefficient of each factor. Simultaneously, the findings contradict some previous hypotheses claimed by scholars.

Threshold Effect of Financial Inclusion on Poverty Reduction in Africa: Does institutional quality play a role?

ABSTRACT In Africa, poverty levels are still very high, especially with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite efforts by governments and development partners to address it. Financial inclusion has been identified as an important concept in fighting poverty due to its ability to increase the income level of households. This study sought to estimate the threshold level at which financial inclusion, aided by strong institutions, will lead to poverty reduction in Africa, using Hansen’s threshold estimation method, covering a period of 2004–2020. The Hansen threshold estimation method uses an endogenous approach to identify threshold values, which eliminates deterministic process by using a systematic approach, as compared to the linear methods of sample-splitting of threshold-level specifications by other methods. This therefore makes the Hansen threshold estimation method robust in threshold estimations compared to other methods. The study found double threshold values of 0.0534 and 0.341, indicating that a financial inclusion value below 0.0534 would increase household consumption expenditure, leading to poverty reduction. However, a threshold value between 0.0534 and 0.3141 has a negative impact on poverty reduction. Furthermore, beyond a threshold value of 0.3141, financial inclusion will improve household consumption and as such reduce poverty in Africa. The study also established a threshold value of institutional quality index of −1.6325, indicating that below that institutional quality index, financial inclusion will have a negative impact on household consumption as well as poverty reduction in Africa. The results further indicated that dependency ratio, gross national income, interest rate, inflation, education, and government expenditure contribute significantly to poverty reduction in Africa. It is recommended that development partners, central banks and governments in the region should consciously develop and implement financial literacy policies, with the collaboration of all financial institutions that are aimed at promoting financial inclusion due to its ability to end poverty.

The burden of disease and economic growth: The nonlinear effect of population age structure

This study aims to detangle the impact of health on economic growth as empirical evidence shows a mixture of findings. We use data on the Burden of Disease (BoD) from the Institute of Health Metric Evaluation (IHME) to measure health capital and the economic data of 87 countries from 1990 to 2018. Using panel threshold regression, this study shows that the old dependency ratio is a good measure of the threshold variable, which divides the country groups into four. The BoD, whether it comes from communicable diseases (CD), non-communicable diseases (NCD), or injuries, has a negative impact on economic growth. However, the negative relation is somewhat diminished as the population gets older, demonstrating that the BoD's impact on economic growth is less pronounced for the older population than the younger population.

Kinship and Care: Racial Disparities in Potential Dementia Caregiving in the United States From 2000 to 2060.

Although the family plays a pivotal role in older adults' care, there is limited research on how evolving demographic trends affect older adults' support networks and how the trends vary by race. To fill this gap, we examine the influence of shifting family demographics on future care needs for older adults with dementia, emphasizing the unequal health and potential caregiving burdens by race in the United States. Using demographic models of kinship, we estimate the availability of potential caregivers, and dementia prevalence among one's kin by race, kin type, and the age of a focal person from 2000 to 2060. We introduce an index called the Dementia Dependency Ratio to assess dementia caregiving demands at the population level, taking into account the age and kinship structure of the population. Our findings suggest that Black individuals tend to have more children, grandchildren, and nieces/nephews as they age. However, Black individuals also tend to have more kin with dementia compared to their White counterparts. This elevated prevalence of dementia among Black kinship networks counterbalances the advantage of having more kin as potential caregivers. A further projection analysis suggests that the racial gap in caregiving demand within the kinship network will widen in the next 4 decades if the racial gap in dementia prevalence remains unchanged. These findings emphasize the urgency of reducing racial inequality in dementia prevalence rates and increasing public support for families with extended members affected by dementia. With the shrinkage of nuclear families and population aging in the next few decades, extended family members may undertake more caregiving responsibilities for dementia. We call for a kinship perspective in understanding dementia care in future research.

Widowhood and multidimensional poverty: Evidence from Nigeria

AbstractPoverty among widows has received little empirical attention in Africa despite women's severe vulnerability to death shock. We provided empirical evidence on widow households' transition in and out of poverty and factors influencing their probability of being in poverty. The Markov transition probabilities show moderate but increasing positive transitions for severely poor widows. Non‐poor widows are stayers who primarily sustain their non‐poor class. The ordered logit estimation shows that higher dependency ratio increases the chances of a widow being severely poor. Being an older widow and having literacy skills reduced the probability that a widow household will be severely poor. Household size and dependency ratio are noted to play important roles in the probability of transitions across poverty classes as shown by the estimated multinomial logit model. These findings are robust to alternative poverty measure, estimation method and different set of weights. Generally, the results echo the need for social safety nets to cushion widows' financial strains. Life insurance policy for spouses, increased sensitization of widows of their rights and adult education programmes targeted at widows could mitigate the negative impact of widowhood on women.

Assessing the Contribution of Smallholder Irrigation to Household Food Security in Zimbabwe

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 seeks to end hunger and guarantee food and nutrition security worldwide by 2030. Smallholder irrigation development remains a key strategy to achieve SDG 2. This study assesses how smallholder irrigation contributes to household food security in Mberengwa district, Zimbabwe. Primary data were gathered from a randomly chosen sample of 444 farmers (344 irrigators and 100 non-irrigators) using a structured questionnaire. Microsoft Excel and Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 27 software packages were used to analyse the data. Descriptive statistics, chi-square test, t-test, and binary logistic regression were performed. The t-test results show significant differences in mean between irrigators and non-irrigators for household size, the dependency ratio, farming experience, farm income, food expenditure share, and livestock owned (p < 0.05). Irrigators had significantly higher area planted, yield, and quantity sold for maize during the summer than non-irrigators (p < 0.05). Food Consumption Score results show that 97% of irrigators and 45% of non-irrigators were food secure. Binary logistic regression results reveal a significant association between food security and household size, irrigation access, and farm income (p < 0.05). In conclusion, access to smallholder irrigation increases household food security. The government and its development partners should prioritise investments in smallholder irrigation development, expansion, and rehabilitation.

Population Aging and the Retirement Age

ABSTRACTNumerous jurisdictions have recently raised the age of retirement or plan to do so. Pressure to extend people's working lives is due to population aging, which makes it harder to fund retirement through existing methods. Raising the retirement age can improve the ‘dependency ratio’ by increasing the fraction of the population that works (and pays taxes) relative to the fraction retired. This article gives sustained attention to connecting the case for retirement with one view about wellbeing, according to which old age is subject to distinctive goods. The importance of being able to access these goods in old age favours an eventual exit from labour market participation that retirement provisions enable. This view is stronger than one that treats retirement as merely a safety net to enable people to stop work only when advanced aging makes it unreasonably burdensome. At the same time, the view likely does not justify status quo retirement ages, meaning that some increase to the retirement age might be defensible. The article also seeks to illuminate ways in which different aspects of population aging – in particular the distinction between dependency ratios and inequalities in longevity – bear differently on the wider debate about justice and retirement.

Household food security status and its associated factors among pensioners in Arba Minch town, South Ethiopia.

Food insecurity has remained a serious public health problem in developing countries, such as Ethiopia, over the past two decades. Vulnerable populations, such as pensioners, have been affected by this problem because of emerging socio-demographic changes, a global financial crisis, and climate change, all of which have contributed to the high food prices. Hence, this study aimed to assess household food security status and associated factors among pensioners in Arba Minch town, South Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from September to October 2023. Two hundred forty-four pensioners were chosen using a simple random sampling technique. Data were collected, cleaned, and entered into EPI-Data version 4.6 and exported to SPSS version 25 for analysis. Variables with a p-value of ≤0.25 in the bivariate analyses were candidates for the multivariable regression analysis. In the multivariable logistic regression, variables with a p-value of 0.05 were considered to have a significant association with the dependent variable. A total of 238 retired people were interviewed, with a response rate of 97.5%. Among the interviewed pensioners, 223 (91.4%) households were food insecure. Having more than one dependent member [AOR = 2.4, 95% C.I: 1.30, 6.64], being jobless after retirement [AOR = 3, 95% C.I:1.17, 5.61], and being in the lowest tertile of wealth status [AOR = 2, 95% C.I:1.36, 4.99] were identified as predictors of food insecurity. The magnitude of household food insecurity was higher compared to the national average, and factors such as the current occupational status of the household head, dependency ratio, and wealth status of the household were significantly associated with household food insecurity. Therefore, policymakers and programmers should provide new strategies focusing on additional income-generating activities and salary increments and consider free services such as school fees and healthcare.

Labour migration as a solution to an ageing population?

Labour migration is often mentioned as a way to mitigate the impact of ageing in wealthy societies. This article analyses the impact of labour migration on the welfare level and old-age dependency ratio of a prosperous ageing country, the Netherlands. If labour migrants are considered to be part of the population of the host country, they only contribute to a higher welfare level if their productivity is higher than per capita GDP. If they stay permanently and form a family, their productivity will need to be higher than the average labour productivity of the incumbent workforce. Labour migrants will mitigate the rise of the old-age dependency ratio, but only if they only stay in the host country temporarily. Therefore, only selective and temporary labour migration will relieve the ‘burden’ of an ageing society.

Der demografische Wandel im Wandel

Abstract The assumptions underlying the German Federal Statistical Office’s population projections have evolved, resulting in a moderate increase in the old-age dependency ratio. Previous scenarios anticipated larger gains in life expectancy, leading to demographic aging. However, consistently heightened migration patterns have counteracted the projections. The dual aging process in demographic change has now transformed into a triple demographic transformation, which may have fiscal implications beyond demographic aging.

Pengaruh Pengeluaran Pemerintah Sektor Kesehatan, Pengeluaran Makanan Perkapita, dan Rasio Ketergantungan Terhadap Indeks Pembangunan Manusia di Kabupaten Provinsi Lampung

The province of Lampung, strategically located on the island of Sumatra, is facing challenges in improving human development that have yet to meet desired expectations. Data indicates that the Human Development Index (HDI) there is still below the national average and that of Sumatra as a whole. The study was conducted in the 13 districts of Lampung Province during the period 2017-2022 using panel data regression with a Random Effect Model (REM). This research aims to investigate the Human Development Index (HDI) in the districts of Lampung Province, focusing on the dimensions of economics, education, and health. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of government expenditure on the health sector, dependency ratio, and per capita food expenditure on the HDI. The results show that 1) Government expenditure in the health sector significantly contributes positively to improving the HDI in Lampung Province. Conversely, 2) per capita food expenditure has a significant negative impact, as does 3) the dependency ratio, which also significantly affects the HDI but in a negative direction. Therefore, further attention to these factors is expected to enhance human development in Lampung Province. This study provides deep insights into the challenges and opportunities faced by Lampung District in improving the welfare of its people, and it offers policy recommendations that can lead to inclusive and sustainable development in the future.

The Policy Impact and Evaluation of Education on Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: An analysis of economy of Pakistan

Determining the variables linked to poverty like education is a critical first step in developing policies intended to end it. Designing policies for the eradication of poverty is made possible by a comprehensive understanding of the factors that generate poverty. The findings demonstrated that poverty is caused by illiteracy and dependency ratio. Poverty is found to be inversely correlated with education, the accessibility of healthcare and educational resources, and consumer inequality on CPI. The comparison of rural and urban areas showed that while the dependency ratio is more damaging in rural areas, education is comparatively more effective in urban areas for eradicating poverty. In terms of consumption disparity, the marginal effect is more pronounced in metropolitan regions, most likely as a result of the diversity of employment and educational options available there, which raises consumption inequality and education access there.

Prevalence of Depression among Geriatric Population and its Association with Dependency: A Cross-Sectional Study in Rural Eastern Haryana, India

Introduction: Depression in the elderly is becoming common and has dangerous implications on elderly that not only lowers quality of life, but it also has an impact on the prognosis of other chronic conditions leading to disability. According to WHO, depression occurs in 7% of elderly population and in India prevalence of depression among elderly is 9.3%. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of depression among geriatric age group and to determine the association between the depression and the dependency among geriatric population. Method:Present cross sectional study was conducted with 220 villagers of age above 60 years from catchment area of Rural Health training center of medical college. The identiication of depression and dependency was carried out using the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) and Barthel Index respectively. Results: The prevalence of depression and dependency among the geriatric population was found out to be 28 % and 31%, respectively. There was signiicant association between median scores of Barthel Index among depressed and non-depressed individuals (p value< 0.001). There was signiicant association between depression and dependency (P value=0.05).Conclusion: The present study shows 28% of prevalence of depression among elderly population and dependency as a signiicant risk factor for depression, thus showing the importance of analyzing dependency status while screening for the mental health status of the elderly person. Keywords:Barthel Index, Dependency, Depression, Geriatric Depression Scale

Is Agriculture Still the Mainstay of Rural Economies? Insights from Ultra-Poor Households in North-central Nigeria

Aims: Nigeria may be facing aging and decline in the population engaged at food production nodes, posing huge challenge to agri-food systems with poverty at risk of deepening. Current trend in rural-urban migration and occupational mobility raises the open question of: “Is agriculture still a mainstay of rural economy, playing reliant roles in income and employment generation for the ultra-poor in Nigeria rurality?”. Understanding this is important because structural change to agricultural workforce in Nigeria has far-reaching implications on food security, welfare, and poverty. We sought to unfold the dynamics of agriculture as a business among ultra-poor rural households in North-Central Nigeria. First, we investigated engagements of ultra-poor rural households in agriculture. Secondly, we examined their level of commercialization. Lastly, we investigated determinants of ultra-poor’s market participation and its intensity. Study Design: This study used quantitative primary data collected in surveys and qualitative data generated from focus group discussions. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in three states in North-central Nigeria viz: Kwara, Kogi, and Niger with data collected and analyzed between 2020-2022. Methodology: We randomly selected 1588 households (out of 60,427 households) from the “Single Register of the Ultra-poor” operationalized on a World-Bank-Assisted Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme. We analysed data using descriptive statistics, Household Agricultural Commercialization Index, and Double-Hurdle Model. Results: Only about 18.7% of the ultra-poor households were primarily engaged in agriculture with the focus groups highlighting conflicts issues from indiscriminate grazing activities as primary reason for the abandonment. Determinants of market participation and intensification include: (-) household dependency ratio, distance to markets, (+) linkage to market agents, access to mechanization and input market, CCT-beneficiary status, and farm size (p<0.05). Conclusion: Involvement in primary agricultural production is declining in Nigeria. We recommend a boost to infrastructural development of the rurality to support agricultural transformation and attractiveness to the next wave of youths.

Long-Term Care Determinants in Türkiye: Analyzing A Comprehensive Range of Variables

By 2050, one in ten people in OECD countries will be 80 aged or older. The aging population will have several impacts on countries, such as increased demand for healthcare and social services, a smaller workforce, and a growing dependency ratio. Türkiye relies heavily on family members to provide long-term care (LTC) for their elderly. In this paper, we study the relationship between a comprehensive range of demographic and socioeconomic variables and informal long-term caregiving using the Turkish Statistical Institute’s Time Use Survey, a nationally representative micro dataset. Employing a multivariate regression analysis, we find that women are more likely to provide unpaid informal caregiving, albeit lacking strong statistical significance. The findings also reveal that being married and older are significant predictors of providing informal LTC. In contrast, we find no significant evidence that income level and house characteristics are crucial determinants of informal LTC. The findings of this study have a number of important policy implications for future practice, such as investing in healthcare and social services and developing policies to encourage LTC workforce participation.

Population Aging and Decline Will Happen Sooner Than We Think

The United Nations’ 2022 World Population Prospects suggests the global population will reach 10 billion people in 2058 and will peak in 2086. Aggregated data do not account for regional and age-group realities, which draw a more pressing picture. We analyze the World Population Prospects 2022 data according to age groups and regions and show that population peaks are going to occur sooner in some regions of the world than others, and the working-age population will peak on average 10 to 20 years before the overall population peaks. Africa is the only world region expected to continue to experience significant population growth. The population will be increasingly made up of larger proportions of older ages than younger, thereby shifting the dependency ratio. Reflections on the implications of an aging and shrinking population on policy regarding fertility, aging, migration, urban planning and economic development are needed. The challenge is not to be left for future generations to face; it is happening tomorrow.

Income Level and Population Aging Impact on Retirement Savings in OECD Countries

Increasing old-dependency ratio has essential impact on pension systems which must be reformed and adjusted to actual demographic situation. Applying linear regression, we look for relationships between retirement savings and levels of incomes and old-age dependency ratios in 36 selected OECD countries. Our findings show that the population aging affects pension assets acccumulation differently in developed and developing countries although pension assets are increasing in both groups of countries. Concurrently, the regression models let us divide OECD countries into three groups - Countries where the old-age dependency ratio affects per capita investment positively and statistically significant (26 countries), insignificantly (5 countries) and negatively and significant (5 countries).