Threshold Effect of Financial Inclusion on Poverty Reduction in Africa: Does institutional quality play a role?

Abstract

ABSTRACT In Africa, poverty levels are still very high, especially with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic, despite efforts by governments and development partners to address it. Financial inclusion has been identified as an important concept in fighting poverty due to its ability to increase the income level of households. This study sought to estimate the threshold level at which financial inclusion, aided by strong institutions, will lead to poverty reduction in Africa, using Hansen’s threshold estimation method, covering a period of 2004–2020. The Hansen threshold estimation method uses an endogenous approach to identify threshold values, which eliminates deterministic process by using a systematic approach, as compared to the linear methods of sample-splitting of threshold-level specifications by other methods. This therefore makes the Hansen threshold estimation method robust in threshold estimations compared to other methods. The study found double threshold values of 0.0534 and 0.341, indicating that a financial inclusion value below 0.0534 would increase household consumption expenditure, leading to poverty reduction. However, a threshold value between 0.0534 and 0.3141 has a negative impact on poverty reduction. Furthermore, beyond a threshold value of 0.3141, financial inclusion will improve household consumption and as such reduce poverty in Africa. The study also established a threshold value of institutional quality index of −1.6325, indicating that below that institutional quality index, financial inclusion will have a negative impact on household consumption as well as poverty reduction in Africa. The results further indicated that dependency ratio, gross national income, interest rate, inflation, education, and government expenditure contribute significantly to poverty reduction in Africa. It is recommended that development partners, central banks and governments in the region should consciously develop and implement financial literacy policies, with the collaboration of all financial institutions that are aimed at promoting financial inclusion due to its ability to end poverty.