Oil Consumption Research Articles

The price of politics: What the 2020 oil shocks in Nigeria teach us about transactional political systems

Political spending—funds that elite actors use to buy and sell political power—is the lifeblood of Nigerian politics. It fuels backroom deals, forges political coalitions, and is the means to incite or end violence. To date, political spending in Nigeria has largely been financed by its immense oil revenues flowing through the government. It is natural to assume that political budgets should rise and fall with oil’s boom-and-bust cycles, but the reality is not so straightforward. Based on an analysis of the 2020 oil crash in Nigeria, this paper examines how traumatic decarbonization—the sudden, unplanned loss of oil revenues—did not lead to a reduction in political budgets but did force a change in how they were funded and channeled. Despite the loss in oil revenues, patronage and the “contractocracy,” government contracts used to funnel rents to the elite, were protected and expanded massively in 2021 with funding from domestic and international loans. The 2020 oil crash demonstrated the resilience and rising cost of transactional politics in Nigeria, even when it came at the expense of the Nigerian people. Through this analysis, the paper further examines systemically corrupt political systems and how political actors adapt to changes in available political finance.

Systemic Health Effects of Oleuropein and Hydroxytyrosol Supplementation: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials.

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 41 million deaths annually, accounting for 74% of global fatalities. The so-called Mediterranean diet, with its especially significant consumption of olive oil, has shown promising results in reducing the risk of developing NCDs, such as cardiovascular, liver, or bone diseases. In the context of the nutritional health benefits of foods, phenolic compounds such as olive oil's main components, oleuropein (OLE) and hydroxytyrosol (HT), have been shown to possess different beneficial effects. However, no systematic review has evaluated the health-promoting effects of OLE and HT until now. Consequently, this systematic review analyzed 12 human randomized controlled trials (RCTs), involving 683 participants, to assess the effects of supplements, pure compounds, or enriched foods containing OLE and HT regarding systemic health outcomes, including CVD risk factors, liver parameters, and bone, joint, and cognitive health. The review found contrasting but encouraging results, with some studies reporting significant modulation of body weight, lipid profile, and glucose metabolism, and improvements in bone, joint, and cognitive functions. The studies described different dosages and forms of supplementation, ranging from 5 mg/d HT to 990 mL/d olive leaf infusion (320.8 mg OLE and 11.9 mg HT), highlighting the need for further research to determine the optimal dosing and duration. Despite the mixed outcomes, OLE and HT supplementation show potential for improving some of the cardiometabolic health outcomes and bone, joint, and cognitive health. However, further studies are necessary to understand their benefits better and address existing limitations.

Produced Water from the Oil and Gas Industry as a Resource—South Kuwait as a Case Study

Produced Water (PW) represents the largest waste stream in the oil and gas industry. As a water resource and as a source of valuable minerals such as alkali salts, it is has been highly under-valued, especially in hyper-arid regions. The beneficial use of PW ranges from water reinjection to elevated oil recovery from reservoirs with almost instantaneous returns, to the extraction of minerals from PW, which involves a number of different processes and setups. The economic value of PW-derived end products offers alternative revenue sources, with market fluctuations and conditions different from those of the hydrocarbon market. The end products of water and industrial salt support local industries such as agriculture, reflecting positively on the gross domestic product (GDP). Furthermore, resource extraction from PW of the oil and gas industry helps countries augment their circular economy. In this regard, the economic feasibility of three scenarios—the use of PW for oil recovery, the use of PW as an alternate source of water and industrial salt, and a hybrid process of both—is explored. The results show that there is great potential for water reuse in Enhanced Oil Recovery operations, as well as in the reduction in freshwater consumption for oil- and gas-extraction operations in the state of Kuwait by up to 4.8 percent when PW generated by SK oilfields is considered, and by 42 percent if PW from all oilfields in Kuwait is reused in the same manner.

Critical Success Factors of Electric Mobility Transition in Indonesia: A DEMATEL-Based ANP Approach

The high index of poor air quality and the increasing demand for oil fuel pose severe problems for Indonesia. The largest sector contributing to both of these issues is the transportation sector. Electric mobility offers a notable opportunity for decreasing carbon emissions within the transportation domain. Despite the Indonesian government's notable backing of this initiative, the implementation has been slow. Therefore, this study aims to identify the critical factors necessary for a successful transition to electric mobility. This study identifies the factors influencing the transition to e-mobility in the initial stage. Subsequently, these factors are validated and assessed by a panel of nine experts. In the validation phase, data processing involves the use of the Content Validity Index (CVI) and Modified Kappa methods. To assess relationships and prioritize essential success factors, the Decision-making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-based Analytic Network Process (DEMATEL-based ANP) is applied. This study identifies six dimensions and 24 critical success factors. The political dimension emerges as the most significant, with the top five priorities being government funding, charging infrastructure, value proposition, fuel price, and charging time. The findings can be used to provide recommendations to the government or relevant stakeholders in supporting the shift to electric mobility in Indonesia.

Application of Nanotechnology to Enhance the Effectiveness and Stability of Essential Oils

The global demand for essential oils is expanding as a result of their numerous applications and increasing consumer exposure in the international market. Essential oils (EOs) are mixtures of volatile compounds including, but not limited to, phenolics, esters, ketones, terpenes, alcohols, and amides. The majority of EOs have excellent antioxidant, antibacterial, and functional activities. These natural products have conquered space in the food, drug, and cosmetic commercial arena. Unfortunately, like many lipophilic and aromatic active substances, EO presents some drawbacks such as low water solubility, strong organoleptic characteristics, low stability, and limited administration routes, which confines their Industrial use. EOs can be nanoencapsulated to increase their persistence, and bioavailability in the biological process by employing the optimum encapsulation polymers. Additionally, these particles are capable of controlling the release of the EOs promoting a prolonged preservative effect in cosmetics and foods, as well as a potential advantage for pharmaceutical dosage forms. The current research focuses on the essential features of EOs as well as their encapsulation methods. Furthermore, the potential applications of applying nanoencapsulated essential oils in the healthcare field were addressed.

Degradation and Migration in Olive Oil Packaged in Polyethylene Terephthalate under Thermal Treatment and Storage Conditions

The research addresses challenges in food safety related to the migration of contaminants from plastics to food. It focused on the physicochemical and sensory degradation of olive oils packaged in polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and subjected to thermal exposure at 40 °C and 60 °C for several weeks and a subsequent 12 months of storage, as well as the stability and migration of compounds from the PET packaging itself. Olive oils (OO) from Spanish supermarkets (a mixture of refined and virgin, with commercial identifications of mild and intense) were selected and subjected to thermal treatments at 40 °C and 60 °C for 1, 2, and 3 weeks, followed by 12 months of storage. The treatments were conducted through the following two independent experiments: Experiment A focused on immediate analysis post-thermal treatment, while Experiment B included a 12-month storage period post-thermal treatment. The presence of antimony (Sb) was analyzed using acid digestion with nitric acid (HNO3) and high-resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS), while the metals cadmium (Cd), copper (Cu), lead (Pb), and iron (Fe) were analyzed using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The PET characterization was assessed using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy in the mid-infrared range (FT-IR/MIR), carbonyl index, and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The results showed increases in the acidity index by 0.29%, the peroxide value by 25.92%, and the K268 coefficient by 51.22% between the control sample and the most severe treatments, with more pronounced effects observed after 12 months. Sensory quality declined, with reduced intensity of the “fruity” attribute and increased presence of the “rancid” defect. PET degradation was reflected in an increase in the carbonyl index and greater structural amorphization. Fe was the predominant metal, and Sb concentration increased after thermal treatments. The lack of studies on the raw consumption of oils packaged in PET and the concerns about the migration of compounds from the packaging to the food highlight the relevance of this research. This study provides new insights into the effects of thermal exposure and storage on the migration of PET contaminants into oils, contributing to the development of strategies to ensure food safety and product quality.

Renewable Energy Consumption Determinants: Do They Differ between Oil-Exporting Countries and Oil-Importing Ones?

This paper delves into the critical determinants of renewable energy consumption, focusing on the contrasting roles of oil imports and exports. It aims to bridge the knowledge gap by comparing these determinants across both oil-importing and oil-exporting nations, offering a comprehensive and nuanced perspective to inform policy recommendations. Using annual data from 1990 to 2018 sourced from the World Bank database, the study employs panel multiple regression analysis and adopts a fixed effects model to explore two main questions: What drives the use of renewable energy sources? How does a country’s oil importer or exporter status affect these factors? The findings reveal a significant but inverse relationship between oil rents and renewable energy consumption (REC) for both types of countries. Additionally, there is a notable negative correlation between GDP growth and REC for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Interestingly, the crude oil average closing price and inflation show an insignificant impact on REC in both contexts. The study also highlights that net energy imports significantly affect REC, with a much stronger inverse relationship in oil-importing countries compared with oil-exporting ones. For oil-importing countries, diversifying energy sources is a crucial investment. Governments should prioritize research and development in renewable energy to spur technological advancements, enhancing efficiency and affordability. Economic growth-promoting policies, such as tax incentives and subsidies for renewable energy businesses, are vital for encouraging sustainable practices. Consistent, long-term policies are essential for providing investor confidence and supporting the transition to renewable energy. For oil-exporting countries, similar strategies are recommended. Additionally, allocating a portion of oil revenues to renewable energy infrastructure and funding research and development in renewable technologies through local universities and startups are crucial steps. This dual approach will not only enhance energy diversification but also foster innovation and sustainability in the energy sector.

Source Rock Assessment of the Permian to Jurassic Strata in the Northern Highlands, Northwestern Jordan: Insights from Organic Geochemistry and 1D Basin Modeling

The present study focused on the Permian to Jurassic sequence in the Northern Highlands area, NW Jordan. The Permian to Jurassic sequence in this area is thick and deeply buried, consisting mainly of carbonate intercalated with clastic shale. This study integrated various datasets, including total organic carbon (TOC, wt%), Rock-Eval pyrolysis, visual kerogen examination, gross composition, lipid biomarkers, vitrinite reflectance (VRo%), and bottom-hole temperature measurements. The main aim was to investigate the source rock characteristics of these strata regarding organic richness, kerogen type, depositional setting, thermal maturity, and hydrocarbon generation timing. The Permian strata are poor to fair source rocks, primarily containing kerogen type (KT) III. They are immature in the AJ-1 well and over-mature in the NH-2 well. The Upper Triassic strata are poor source rocks in the NH-1 well and fair to marginally good source rocks in the NH-2 well, containing highly mature terrestrial KT III. These strata are immature to early mature in the AJ-1 well and at the peak oil window stage in the NH-2 well. The Jurassic strata are poor source rocks, dominated by KT III and KT II-III. They are immature to early mature in the AJ-1 well and have reached the oil window in the NH-2 well. Biomarker-related ratios indicate that the Upper Triassic oils and Jurassic samples are source rocks that received mainly terrestrial organic input accumulated in shallow marine environments under highly reducing conditions. These strata are composed mostly of clay-rich lithologies with evidence of deposition in hypersaline and/or stratified water columns. 1D basin models revealed that the Upper Triassic strata reached the peak oil window from the Early Cretaceous (~80 Ma) to the present day in the NH-1 well and from ~130 Ma (Early Cretaceous) to ~90 Ma (Late Cretaceous) in the NH-2 well, with the late stage of hydrocarbon generation continuing from ~90 Ma to the present time. The present-day transformation ratio equals 77% in the Upper Triassic source rocks, suggesting that these rocks have expelled substantial volumes of hydrocarbons in the NH-2 well. To achieve future successful hydrocarbon discoveries in NW Jordan, accurate seismic studies and further geochemical analyses are recommended to precisely define the migration pathways.

Enhancing seed oil content and fatty acid composition in camelina through overexpression of castor RcWRI1A and RcMYB306

Seed triacylglycerol (TAG), a major component of vegetable oil, consists of a glycerol esterified with three fatty acids. Vegetable oil has industrial applications and is widely used as edible oil. The increasing demand for plant oils, owing to population growth, it is crucial to enhance the oil content in seeds. We found castor WRINKLED1A (RcWRI1A) and R2R3-type MYB domain protein 306 (RcMYB306) which have homology with Arabidopsis WRI1 (AtWRI1) and AtMYB96 which regulate genes involved in fatty acid and TAG synthesis, respectively. These castor genes were separately and jointly overexpressed using seed-specific promoters in an oil crop, camelina (Camelina sativa). Overexpression of RcWRI1A, RcMYB306, or RcWRI1A + RcMYB306 increased the total seed oil content in camelina. However, this increase was not significantly different from that observed during the overexpression of RcWRI1A or/and RcMYB306. RcWRI1A overexpression increased the fatty acid content, including 16:0, 18:2, 18:3. Contrastingly, RcMYB306 overexpression increased the 18:1, 18:2, 18:3, 20:0 and 20:1 fatty acid. In the RcWRI1A + RcMYB306 lines, changes in fatty acid composition demonstrated the combined effects of these transcription factors. These results suggest that RcWRI1A and RcMYB306 can be used to improve the productivity of oil crops.

Experimental study of dual-cycle thermal management system for engineering radiator

With the increasing demand for heat dissipation of engineering vehicles, a dual-cycle cooling system is introduced in this paper to prevent the adverse effects of engineering vehicles’ equipment when operating at the overheating temperature. The performance of the new system is analyzed through tests, and the results show that the dual-cycle cooling system can meet the thermal balance requirements of the engineering vehicle during the shovel operation. Compared with the traditional cooling system, the new cooling system improved performance in terms of volume, engine energy consumption and working oil efficiency. The oil consumption of a wheel loader using the dual-cycle cooling system is reduced by 1% per hour, and the temperature of its transmission oil and hydraulic oil is reduced by more than 10 °C. The new cooling system has bright future in energy saving and emission reduction of engineering vehicles.

Prevalence of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and its Associated Risk Factors in an Urban Slum of a Metropolitan City

Abstract Introduction: The study aimed to estimate the prevalence of Type 2 DM and associated risk factors in urban slums. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was done in the urban slum of the city involving adults aged >18 years. A sample of 300 participants was selected by systematic random sampling. Consent was taken and data were collected using pre-structured questionnaire. The data were entered in Excel and analysed using SPSS. Results: Majority of participants were females with a mean age being 45.21 years. The prevalence of Type 2 DM was 27.3%. Statistical significance was observed between diabetes and age, gender, religion, diet intake, oil consumption, physical activity, obesity and central obesity. Conclusions: The risk factors associated include advancing age, male gender, inadequate diet intake, excessive oil consumption, lack of physical activity, obesity and central obesity.

Flea beetle (Phyllotreta spp.) management in spring‐planted canola (Brassica napus L.) on the northern Great Plains of North America

AbstractCanola (Brassica napus L. and B. rapa L. [Brassicales: Brassicaceae]) is a major oilseed crop grown globally as a source of vegetable oil, animal feed and biofuel feedstock. The global demand for canola oil as a biofuel feedstock has increased due to recent regulations in the European Union, United States, and Canada. In North America, canola production is centered on the northern Great Plains where it is challenged by two highly destructive flea beetle species, the crucifer (Phyllotreta cruciferae Goeze, 1777) and the striped (Phyllotreta striolata Fabricius, 1803) flea beetles. In the spring, adult P. cruciferae and P. striolata begin feeding on canola seedlings, creating a ‘shot hole’ appearance, which can reduce the plant's photosynthetic capacity leading to uneven plant emergence and growth, reduced plant stand density, and reduced seed yield. Losses resulting from flea beetles are estimated in the tens of millions of dollars annually. At present, the principle means for flea beetle control are insecticides applied as systemic seed treatments and/or subsequent foliar sprays. The continued use of these products is being questioned due to environmental concerns and acquisition of resistance. As such, significant research effort is being directed toward the development of an integrated pest management system for these abundant and hard to manage pests of canola. Here, we review the ecology, pest status, and management of flea beetles in North America and discuss future research needed to promote flea beetle management and sustainable canola production.

Assessing the Utilisation Regime of Ghana’s Oil Revenue under the Petroleum Revenue Management Act

Ghana's Petroleum Revenue Management Act (PRMA) created two funds under the Act. The first comprises the Petroleum Holding Fund, the Ghana Petroleum Funds made up of the Ghana Stabilisation Fund and the Ghana Heritage Fund, referred to as Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs), and the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA), which is subject to the accountability regime under the PRMA. The second, consist of the Consolidated Fund and the Contingency Fund, exists outside the PRMA; nevertheless, these funds receive a portion of Ghana’s oil revenue. The PRMA has established an accountability regime to ensure effective oil revenue management by giving the Public Interest Accountability Committee (PIAC) and the Auditor-General the mandate to examine oil revenue management. Be that as it may, the second set of funds is not subject to the accountability regime existing under the PRMA. The article sees the practice as a disturbing trend and argues that the PRMA must be amended to allow the institutions to evaluate oil revenue management for accountability to prevail.

Health Outcomes Associated with Olive Oil Intake: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analyses.

Several studies suggested a negative association between olive oil (OO) consumption and the risk of several chronic diseases. However, an attempt to systematically search, organize, and evaluate the existing evidence on all health outcomes associated with OO consumption is lacking. The objective of this review is to describe the multiple health outcomes associated with OO consumption. The Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched through 5 April 2024. The selected studies met all of the following criteria: (1) a meta-analysis of both observational (case-control and cohort studies) and interventional studies (trials), (2) an evaluation of the association between OO consumption, mortality, and/or the incidence of non-communicable/chronic degenerative diseases, and (3) a study population ≥18 years old. Two independent reviewers extracted the relevant data and assessed the risk of bias of individual studies. The PRISMA statement and guidelines for the Integration of Evidence from Multiple Meta-Analyses were followed. The literature search identified 723 articles. After selection, 31 articles were included in this umbrella review. The primary health benefits of OO were observed in cardiovascular diseases and risk factors, cancer, mortality, diabetes, and specific biomarkers related to anthropometric status and inflammation. As a key component of the Mediterranean diet, OO can be considered a healthy dietary choice for improving positive health outcomes.

Brassicaceae Mustards: Phytochemical Constituents, Pharmacological Effects, and Mechanisms of Action against Human Disease.

The Brassicaceae genus consists of many economically important mustards of value for food and medicinal purposes, namely Asian mustard (Brassica juncea), ball mustard (Neslia paniculata), black mustard (B. nigra), garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata), hedge mustard (Sisymbrium officinale), Asian hedge mustard (S. orientale), oilseed rape (B. napus), rapeseed (B. rapa), treacle mustard (Erysimum repandum), smooth mustard (S. erysimoides), white ball mustard (Calepina irregularis), white mustard (Sinapis alba), and Canola. Some of these are commercially cultivated as oilseeds to meet the global demand for a healthy plant-derived oil, high in polyunsaturated fats, i.e., B. napus and B. juncea. Other species are foraged from the wild where they grow on roadsides and as a weed of arable land, i.e., E. repandum and S. erysimoides, and harvested for medicinal uses. These plants contain a diverse range of bioactive natural products including sulfur-containing glucosinolates and other potentially valuable compounds, namely omega-3-fatty acids, terpenoids, phenylpropanoids, flavonoids, tannins, S-methyl cysteine sulfoxide, and trace-elements. Various parts of these plants and many of the molecules that are produced throughout the plant have been used in traditional medicines and more recently in the mainstream pharmaceutical and food industries. This study relates the uses of mustards in traditional medicines with their bioactive molecules and possible mechanisms of action and provides an overview of the current knowledge of Brassicaceae oilseeds and mustards, their phytochemicals, and their biological activities.

Passive Wireless Porous Biopolymer Sensors for At-Home Monitoring of Oil and Fatty Acid Nutrition.

Dietary oils─rich in omega-3, -6, and -9 fatty acids─exhibit critical impacts on health parameters such as cardiovascular function, bodily inflammation, and neurological development. There has emerged a need for low-cost, accessible method to assess dietary oil consumption and its health implications. Existing methods typically require specialized, complex equipment and extensive sample preparation steps, rendering them unsuitable for home use. Addressing this gap, herein, we study passive wireless, biocompatible biosensors that can be used to monitor dietary oils directly from foods either prepared or cooked in oil. This design uses broad-coupled split ring resonators interceded with porous silk fibroin biopolymer (requiring only food-safe materials, such as aluminum foil and biopolymer). These porous biopolymer films absorb oils at rates proportional to their viscosity/fatty acid composition and whose response can be measured wirelessly without any microelectronic components touching food. The engineering and mechanism of such sensors are explored, alongside their ability to measure the oil presence and fatty acid content directly from foods. Its simplicity, portability, and inexpensiveness are ideal for emerging needs in precision nutrition─such sensors may empower individuals to make informed dietary decisions based on direct-from-food measurements.

An ethnographic study on the traces of Georgian culture in the cuisine of Ordu (Türkiye)

Migration caused by various factors such as war, natural disasters, and famine, significantly influences cultural elements. The tangible and intangible elements acquired from past generations and passed down to subsequent generations can be called cultural heritage. Cuisine is a significant component of the cultural heritage, as earlier migrations have closely influenced culinary culture. Following the wars towards the end of the Ottoman Empire, Georgians who migrated from the Caucasus brought their culinary culture to Türkiye. Ordu was one of the cities where Georgians settled the most during this period. The main objective of this study is to identify and examine traces of Georgian culture in the Ordu cuisine. The research utilized an ethnographic design and a purposive sampling technique. Data were obtained through interviews with eight individuals familiar with Georgian culinary culture and whose families had been in the region for five generations. The obtained data were subjected to content analysis. These findings indicate that prominent elements of Georgian culture in the cuisine of Ordu include the widespread use of spices and sauces, the significant use of walnuts in dishes, limited consumption of oil, frequent preference for medicinal and aromatic plants, changing traditional methods, the preparation of unique dishes on specific occasions, and the resemblance of culturally used materials. Georgian cuisine includes both vary vegetables such as kale, eggplant, corn, leeks, grapes, beans and vary meals such as pepeçura, khachapuri (haçapuri), hinkali, and papa. Common cooking methods include roasting, baking, boiling, and frying. It was also determined that characteristic kitchen utensils such as bileki stone (stone-made bread pan), gobi (wooden dough boat), sanakveli (small wooden bowl for crushing garlic etc.), and laperay (cabbage mashing board) were used in Georgian cuisine. The significant presence of Georgian culture in the cuisine of Ordu is a crucial gastronomic heritage feature that holds considerable value for the region.

Anticancer Effects of Secoiridoids-A Scoping Review of the Molecular Mechanisms behind the Chemopreventive Effects of the Olive Tree Components Oleocanthal, Oleacein, and Oleuropein.

The olive tree (Olea europaea) and olive oil hold significant cultural and historical importance in Europe. The health benefits associated with olive oil consumption have been well documented. This paper explores the mechanisms of the anti-cancer effects of olive oil and olive leaf, focusing on their key bioactive compounds, namely oleocanthal, oleacein, and oleuropein. The chemopreventive potential of oleocanthal, oleacein, and oleuropein is comprehensively examined through this systematic review. We conducted a systematic literature search to identify eligible articles from Scopus, PubMed, and Web of Science databases published up to 10 October 2023. Among 4037 identified articles, there were 88 eligible articles describing mechanisms of chemopreventive effects of oleocanthal, oleacein, and oleuropein. These compounds have the ability to inhibit cell proliferation, induce cell death (apoptosis, autophagy, and necrosis), inhibit angiogenesis, suppress tumor metastasis, and modulate cancer-associated signalling pathways. Additionally, oleocanthal and oleuropein were also reported to disrupt redox hemostasis. This review provides insights into the chemopreventive mechanisms of O. europaea-derived secoiridoids, shedding light on their role in chemoprevention. The bioactivities summarized in the paper support the epidemiological evidence demonstrating a negative correlation between olive oil consumption and cancer risk. Furthermore, the mapped and summarized secondary signalling pathways may provide information to elucidate new synergies with other chemopreventive agents to complement chemotherapies and develop novel nutrition-based anti-cancer approaches.

Dynamic connectedness of climate risks, oil shocks, and China’s energy futures market: Time-frequency evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile regression

This study investigates the dynamic risk nexus among climate risks, oil shocks and China’s energy futures market from a time–frequency-quantile perspective. We first explore the dynamic connectedness of “climate risks – oil shocks – energy futures” and examine the risk transmission channels through mediation effects model. The Quantile-on-Quantile regression is used to study the time–frequency impact of climate risks and oil shocks on energy futures across different market conditions and investment horizons. Our empirical results are as follows: First, climate transition risks, oil demand and risk shocks play mediating roles in risk transmission channels. Second, the impact of climate risks and oil shocks on energy futures is heterogeneous and asymmetric under extreme conditions. Notably, global warming, oil supply shock and international climate summits are the greatest shocks to China’s energy market. Finally, climate risks and oil shocks are more pronounced in the short term. Overall, these findings offer valuable insights for shaping risk management strategies and implementing effective hedging practices within the energy market.

Forecasting and unveiling the impeded factors of total export of Bangladesh using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag and machine learning algorithms

Rising global oil prices are a major challenge for an emerging oil-importing nation such as Bangladesh. The majority of prior research on the economic effects of an oil price shock has concentrated on developed countries, with emerging economies receiving comparatively less attention. Bangladesh is vulnerable to price shocks due to its rising oil consumption over the past decade. This study aims to investigate how changes in oil prices would affect Bangladesh's total export earnings and to forecast the overall export volume. This study utilized a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to account for the asymmetric behavior of oil prices from 1991 to 2021. To assess the accuracy of predictions, the study employed the Prophet forecasting model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) method. Additionally, the symmetry test revealed a nonlinear relationship between export volume and oil price but a linear relationship between inflation and export volume. According to the NARDL assessment, both positive and negative oil shocks increase export earnings over the long run. The short run summary clarifies that both positive and negative changes in oil prices exert a significant negative effect on exports. Also, Inflation influences export earnings negatively in the short run but positively over the long term. Moreover, using machine learning methods, it was found that the LSTM method outperforms the prophet model in prediction performance with a low root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.88. Also, the analysis revealed policymakers that the export sector requires diversification to reduce its exposure to oil price shocks.