Oil Crunch Research Articles

Is the oil industry able to support a world that consumes 105 million barrels of oil per day in 2025?

This paper investigates the significant risk of a supply crunch in the oil market by 2025 and beyond, given current pace of investment and growth of world demand. We focus particularly on today’s upstream sector and the challenges it faces in meeting the ever-increasing demand for oil. We then study different production scenarios for U.S. unconventional oil potential and draw conclusions on its potential capability to offset the weakening context of conventional oil supply (declining production, declining discoveries, insufficient investment, persistent geopolitical risks and environmental pressures). We conclude that with growing oil demand, the probability of an oil crunch by 2025 is far from null.

Saudi Oil Production Peak: Impact on the Oil Price & Global Oil Security

With the global economy heading towards a severe oil crunch probably by 2015 or thereabouts, an analysis of Saudi oil fundamentals is causing the world disquiet and worry bordering on panic. Oil-importing nations have long treated Saudi Arabia as an infinitely deep well of crude oil supplies. What much of this discussion ignores, however, is that Saudi oil production peaked in 2005 and has been in steady decline since then with domestic oil demand rising at an alarming rate and accounting for 33% of crude production in 2010. As a result, Saudi crude exports have already declined by 28% between 2005 and 2010 and are projected to decline further by 10% in the next 4 years. And far from having 264 billion barrels (bb), Saudi reserves are estimated at 63 bb-88 bb, based on estimated ultimate reserves of 185 bb-210 bb and a total production of 122 bb since the discovery of oil in Saudi Arabia. It now transpires that the one producer that could help mitigate the adverse impact of the impending oil crunch is not in a position to do so. As a result, the pressure on the oil price will continue unabated in coming years. This time the oil price could easily reach $150-$180/ barrel by 2015. And should serious unrest spark in Saudi Arabia, the oil price could surge to $200-300/barrel. Moving into renewables and nuclear energy for Saudi Arabia has become a necessity not a luxury.

An Impending Oil Crunch by 2015?

An analysis of the global oil market fundamentals indicates that a severe oil crunch could be in the offing probably by 2015 or thereabouts. By 2012, global oil production surplus capacity could entirely disappear if the global economy continues to grow and by 2015 the shortfall in oil output could reach nearly 10 million barrels a day (mbd) causing a severe oil crunch and pushing the oil price to levels matching if not exceeding the price levels reached in July 2008, namely $147/barrel. And while it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it would surely, at best, lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment in the global economy and, at worst, to conflict and even war should one of the major oil consumer nations choose to intervene forcefully. The war on Iraq was a foretaste of what’s to come. This war was instrumental in precipitating the recent global banking crisis and the recession from which the global economy is still suffering.

World Oil Crunch Looming?

Even those who believe there9s plenty of oil left in the ground to meet rising demand are warning that the final crisis could come uncomfortably soon.

Oil Crunch Forecasted

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is ratcheting up its concern about peaking world oil supplies that could trigger price hikes. In its annual energy outlook released this week, the agency warns that it cannot rule out a “supply-side crunch” in world oil markets by 2015 as flagging oil

Firing on Half-Cylinders

This article reports on innovations in designing fuel-efficient eight-cylinder engines. Despite rising fuel prices and fears of an oil crunch, Americans' lust for big vehicles with gas-gulping V-8 engines is unlikely to abate anytime soon. So unless a full-size car or truck is passing at speed, climbing a hill or towing a trailer, its eight-cylinder engine runs only half-heartedly--and inefficiently: operating at less than full load lowers fuel economy. Power-train engineers at DaimlerChrysler and General Motors have perfected an affordable way to smoothly morph V-8 gas guzzlers into V-4 fuel misers and back again as required. To the automakers, the new cylinder-deactivation systems provide a relatively low cost way to improve the poor fuel mileage figures otherwise posted by their latest crop of five-liter-plus pushrod engines--Chrysler's popular Hemi and General Motors's new Gen IV small-block V-8. INSET: CUTTING THE FAT.

Two if by Sea

This article discusses that ever since the Methane Pioneer sailed a cargo of liquefied natural gas from the United States to England in 1959, LNG trading in the United States has been a business of fits and starts. A chart plotting the growth of seaborne LNG depicts a flat first decade in the 1960s, 10 years’ rise in the 1970s during the first oil crunch and a flurry of Japanese activity, and then a plateau again in the 1980s on the tail of natural gas price deregulation and a bump up in domestic natural gas production. Bluewater’s concepts for offshore LNG terminals are designed to let a tanker weathervane. Moored at a single point, a weather vaning vessel swings freely to present the lowest area it can to wind and sea. The practice is common with offshore oil handling to keep ship movement from straining the floating hose that carries crude off the ship.

A Middle East View of the Global Oil Situation

Seen from a Middle Eastern perspective, the present global oil situation can be summarised within five major and inescapable trends: 1 The world's super giant and giant oil fields are dying off; 2 There are no more major frontier regions left to explore besides the earth's poles; 3 Production of non-conventional crude oil has been initiated at great costs – in Venezuela's Orinoco belt, Canada's Athabasca tar sands and ultra-deep waters; 4 Even OPEC's oil production has its limits; 5 No major primary energy rival can possibly take over from oil and gas in the medium term. Adding up these five trends, one can envision a global oil crunch at the horizon — – most probably within the present decade. Unfortunately, however, the general public will not heed such a rational vision. And, even if it did, it would be loath to respond to the implied threat. In its defence, it should be said that many actors are constantly and consistently reassuring it: the press (even parts of the specialised press), most politicians, some international institutions, a couple of major oil companies and naturally OPEC. But this can only last until petrol stations post ‘empty’, natural gas supplies are suddenly shunted and, eventually, the lights go off.

Avoiding an Oil Crunch

G lobal resources of conventional petroleum are limited. Competent geologists, geochemists, and geophysicists have identified and explored the Earth's sediments in which favorable circumstances existed for the creation and containment of hydrocarbons. They know that vast areas of the globe have no resources of oil, and the amounts of conventional oil that will ultimately be produced can be estimated. New exploratory and production technologies have been continually improved. During the past 5 years, the pace of change has quickened. Improved computerized seismic programs and guided drilling have been highly effective. Marine formations located in deep water on the continental shelves off western Africa, Brazil, and in the Gulf of Mexico have been drilled and found to be productive. Nevertheless, some knowledgeable petroleum geologists assert that conventional oil is being consumed faster than new reserves are being found.[*][1] An example of what will occur on a global scale is provided by events in the United States. Production peaked there in 1970. Imports of foreign oil have risen since 1982. They now supply more than half of U.S. consumption of petroleum and its products. In spite of huge investments in exploration using new technology, U.S. reserves of oil have diminished. In 1998, the costs of finding oil soared while rates of replacement of production dropped.[†][2] Reserves declined to 18.2 billion barrels in 1998. Consumption last year was more than 4 billion barrels. Global consumption is growing. The world will become increasingly dependent on supplies from the Persian Gulf. In a few years, production there will supply 38% or more of global consumption. Then history might be repeated with huge price increases, supply interruptions, and attendant economic hardships. The United States and other advanced countries are conducting research that could eventually result in less dependence on oil. Those efforts are commendable and merit governmental funding. However, it is unlikely that the research will lead to substantially decreased consumption of oil for a decade or more. To insure against an oil crunch, the United States could help create large sources of nonconventional petroleum. Great resources, technical capability, reliable equipment, and experience exist in the Canadian province of Alberta, where a vast area of tar sands contains about 1.7 trillion barrels of bitumen. Some of this has already been converted into more than a billion barrels of high-grade crude oil. With current techniques, more than 300 billion barrels of oil could be produced from the bitumen of these tar sands. This is more than the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. At present, the largest installation for extracting bitumen and converting it to a premium clean crude oil is operated by the Syncrude Corporation. Facilities are located at Mildred Lake 30 kilometers north of Fort MacMurray, which is about 600 miles north of the U.S.-Canadian border. First production there occurred in July 1978. In 1979, 18 million barrels of Syncrude Sweet Blend (SSB) were produced at an operating cost of $25 Canadian. As a result of persistent incremental process improvements, production in 1998 was 76 million barrels with operating costs of $13.57 Canadian ($8.85 U.S.). The cost of finding and developing new oil in the lower 48 states in 1998 was about $12.00 per barrel. Many projects are planned, under way, or recently completed in Alberta. Some of them involve bitumen in sands that are deeply buried. Its viscosity is being reduced by steam heating and the resultant fluids are brought to the surface. This process has been improved, and deep sands will become an important source of bitumen. Alberta's technical ability to substantially increase the production of high-quality oil is evident, as is a desire to export more of it. Delicately conducted negotiations by U.S. authorities might ultimately lead to substantially increased U.S. imports of Canadian oil products. This would diminish the probability that Persian Gulf states would choose to conduct an economic squeeze of the United States. [1]: #fn-1 [2]: #fn-2

5-8.しのびよる次の石油危機に備えて(Session(5)天然ガス)

5-8.しのびよる次の石油危機に備えて(Session(5)天然ガス)