Abstract
This paper investigates the significant risk of a supply crunch in the oil market by 2025 and beyond, given current pace of investment and growth of world demand. We focus particularly on today’s upstream sector and the challenges it faces in meeting the ever-increasing demand for oil. We then study different production scenarios for U.S. unconventional oil potential and draw conclusions on its potential capability to offset the weakening context of conventional oil supply (declining production, declining discoveries, insufficient investment, persistent geopolitical risks and environmental pressures). We conclude that with growing oil demand, the probability of an oil crunch by 2025 is far from null.
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