Official Warnings Research Articles

Сведения о приготовлении к преступлению как основание для проведения оперативно-розыскных мероприятий

Taking into account the doctrine of an unfinished crime, the limits of legality of conducting operational-search activities are determined on the basis of information about the signs of an unlawful act being prepared that has become known to the bodies carrying out operational-search activities, provided that there is insufficient data to initiate a criminal case. It has been established that, having confirmed the information about a person preparing to commit a crime of minor or medium gravity, further operational-search activities are illegal, since these actions are not recognized as criminally punishable, and therefore do not create the need to solve the tasks of operational-search activities. The author has found that one of the legislatively provided forms of prevention by operatives of a possible occurrence of socially dangerous harm, by persons creating conditions for committing crimes of minor or medium gravity, is the announcement of an official warning about the inadmissibility of such actions.

Enhancing intersection safety: Testing measures to reduce law violations in Loja (Ecuador)

This study evaluates the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing traffic violations, specifically focusing on wrong-way driving, at intersections in Loja, Ecuador. The high incidence of accidents at these intersections, often resulting from wrong-way driving and non-compliance with traffic regulations, underscores the critical need for effective strategies to enhance road safety. To address this issue, we adopted a multidisciplinary approach to assess the impact of two specific interventions: the implementation of official warnings and the presence of traffic officers at a selected intersection. Data collection involved recording instances of traffic violations, administering road safety surveys, and monitoring the implementation of these interventions. The post-implementation analysis sought to determine the effect of these measures on driver behavior and overall traffic safety. Our findings indicate that while the interventions succeeded in increasing awareness about traffic violations, they did not produce a significant reduction in undesirable driving behaviors. This suggests that, although the presence of warnings and traffic officers is beneficial in raising awareness, these measures alone may not be sufficient to effect substantial behavioral changes. The research provides valuable insights for the development of more comprehensive road safety strategies and emphasizes the need for further studies to explore and address the underlying causes of traffic violations.

Abstract Mo050: Fluoroquinolones and the Risk of Aortic Aneurysm or Aortic Dissection: Evidence From a Nationwide Nested Case-Control Study Paralleled With Matched Experimental Models

Background and Aims: Fluoroquinolones (FQ) have been linked to aortic aneurysms and dissections (AA/AD), resulting in an official warning. However, recent large-scale epidemiological studies have reported lack of FQ-AA/AD association. This study aimed to scrutinize FQ-AA/AD risk by implementing a combined epidemiological and experimental approach. Methods: Danish nationwide registers (2003-2021) were used for a nested case-control analysis. FQ-AA/AD risk was evaluated in a main and high-risk FDA cohort. Further, mortality and aortic interventions linked to FQ were investigated in patients with aortic disease. Additionally, ciprofloxacin (100 mg/kg/day, 2x2 weeks) was administered to wild-type, hypertensive or Marfan mice. Aortic diameters and pulse wave velocity (PWV) were measured longitudinally to investigate aortic remodelling. Results: The main cohort comprised 5.10 million individuals with 58,919 cases and 1,767,510 sampled controls. Compared with amoxicillin exposure. FQ exposure was not associated with increased AA/AD risk (30-day hazard ratios (HR) 1.00 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.74-1.34]; 90-day HR 1.07 [CI 0.94-1.22]; 1-year HR 0.95 [0.90-1.01]). In a high-risk cohort, there was no FQ-AA/AD association (30-day HR 0.83 [0.61-1.12]; 90-day HR 0.99 [0.86-1.15]; 1-year HR 0.97 [0.90-1.05]). In patients with aortic disease, FQ were not associated with increased aortic interventions or mortality (30-day HR 0.98 [0.79-1.22]; 90-day HR 1.06 [0.95-1.19]). Additionally, ciprofloxacin did not affect aortic diameters or PWV in wild type, hypertensive, and Marfan mice, while differences between models proved the sensitivity of the methodology. Conclusion: The data clearly do not support the current precautions and warnings pertaining to risks of aortopathies and FQ should not be discouraged when clinically indicated.

Объявление официального предостережения в условиях УИС: проблемные вопросы законодательного регулирования

In the presented article, the author examines the current situation in the field of law enforcement in institutions of the penal enforcement system. Attention is drawn to the special need to prevent penitentiary offenses, in connection with which the author focuses on such a form of preventive action as the announcement of an official warning. The article provides an overview of the scientific development of the topic, and concludes that it is insufficiently studied in relation to the needs of the penal enforcement system. The conducted systematic analysis of certain provisions of federal legislation allowed us to identify the following problematic points: despite the significant preventive potential inherent in Article 17.1 of the Penal Enforcement Code of the Russian Federation, which allows including not only convicts, suspects and accused, but also other persons who can visit institutions executing punishments among the objects of preventive work its full-fledged implementation rests on the content of some articles of the Federal Law “On the Basics of the crime Prevention System in the Russian Federation”, the unfortunate wording of which limits the preventive resource of the Penal Enforcement Code, reducing preventive efforts to work with a special agent. The author also identifies and justifies the need to supplement the title of Article 20 of the Federal Law “On the Basics of the crime prevention system in the Russian Federation” with the word “inaction”, since this form of passive behavior is quite common among special agents and acts as a condition for committing various offenses. Taking into account the above, the author proposes amendments to federal legislation that make it possible to optimize preventive work in institutions that carry out punishments.

A CNN–LSTM-based deep learning model for early prediction of student’s performance

Abstract In issues pertaining to higher education, deep learning (DL), and its connection to educational data, it is crucial to forecast students’ success. The ability to predict a student’s success aids in choosing courses and developing future study schedules. Apart from forecasting children’s performance, it also assists educators and administrators in keeping an eye on pupils, offering them support, and incorporating training initiatives to maximize outcomes. Student prediction has the advantage of lowering official warning flags and removing ineffective pupils from the classroom. By helping students select courses and study schedules that are suited for their skill levels, prediction supports the students directly. In the proposed approach, a methodology based on the integration of convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) is proposed to optimize students’ performance prediction systems. This study utilized a student performance dataset from the UCI ML Repository. It includes information on student achievements in secondary education from two Portuguese schools. The suggested method overcomes the following three problems in model development: an imbalanced dataset, a lack of feedback mechanism to enhance the quality of learning, and an inadequate mechanism to extract the learning patterns/relevant features to predict student performance. The suggested system’s effectiveness has been demonstrated by the accuracy (98.45) and loss (0.1989) obtained to achieve the best prediction.

Official heat warnings miss situations with a detectable societal heat response in European countries

The frequency and intensity of heat waves are increasing globally. In this context it is not clear how the related impacts differ between countries with different vulnerability and exposure characteristics, such as overall climatic conditions and implemented adaptation strategies, e.g. urban planning and planting trees to reduce heat island effect, air conditioning, communication with the public about danger of heat waves. The release of official heat warnings two to six days in advance plays an important role in notifying the population. However, it remains uncertain to which extent they capture days with societal heat responses. Here, we analyze and compare the response of several societal metrics (Google search attention, excess mortality, press attention) to hot temperatures in twelve European countries. We identify country-specific temperature thresholds above which societal responses increase. We find higher thresholds in warmer countries, indicating overall lower heat vulnerability in southern Europe. Meanwhile, we find similar numbers of societally relevant hot days across countries, computed as the sum of days on which more than 50 % of a country's population experiencing temperatures above the detected thresholds. This indicates that the reduced vulnerability and exposure found for warmer countries are counteracted by hotter heat waves. Finally, the determined number of societally relevant hot days generally exceeds the number of days with heat warnings in five investigated countries: Belgium, Germany, Netherlands, Romania, and Sweden. This suggests that lower temperature thresholds would be better aligned with detectable societal responses and should therefore be considered in the context of warning systems.

Modeling of multi-hazard warning dissemination time distributions: An agent-based approach

Despite the increase in frequency and intensity of disasters around the world, research on warning dissemination times is generally sparse and extremely limited. To address this gap, this study proposes an Agent-based Model (ABM) of warning dissemination time and uses this model to generate diffusion curves for two different warning systems — an official system and a peer network. The warning diffusion process is characterized by residents’ patterns of official channel monitoring over the course of the day as well as influence from socio-psychological variables (e.g., warning belief and warning relay probability) of the peer network. Results show that the official warning system during a rapid-onset hazard would take 180 min to warn 92% of the at-risk residents, whereas only 73% will be notified about the hazard during a slow-onset event within the same time-period. By contrast, the peer warning network would take 13 min to warn 90% of the at-risk residents in a rapid-onset hazard but 1118 min in a slow-onset hazard. These analyses can help evacuation analysts to make more accurate assumptions about warning dissemination through the official warning system and peer warning network and can help emergency managers to improve hazard brochures and hazard awareness programs.

A user experience evaluation of a mobile application for disseminating site‐specific impact‐based flood warnings: The A4alerts app

AbstractPeople‐centred early warning systems must ensure that their warnings are timely, actionable and get to the largest number of exposed individuals in the shortest time possible. Due to the increased access to high‐bandwidth communication, mobile applications have become a valuable complement to traditional sources of emergency information. However, there is limited research on how useful end‐users perceive these apps and their functionalities in the context of flood emergencies. This research presents the first online user experience evaluation of the A4alerts, a crisis app developed to disseminate the flood warnings triggered by the operational impact‐based early warning system in Catalonia, Spain. Following an interactive experiment using the A4alerts app to access emergency information within real‐based flood scenarios, participants were prompted to measure their experience using statements linked to criteria on usefulness, functional appropriateness, and adoption. The evaluation results suggest that sampled participants considered the A4alerts a useful communication tool to support end‐users and their emergency actions. In particular, the local impact‐based flood warnings, regional official warnings and self‐protection action checklist were ranked as the most useful functionalities implemented within the app. These findings justify future iterations of the A4alerts for supporting the rapid dissemination of emergency information and helping communities reduce the impacts of flood events.

Politely warning?

Abstract Taking a usage-based approach, this study examines the social meaning of Japanese honorifics when they are used in call-to-action statements in official disaster warnings on Twitter. This study finds two honorific request constructions, Verb-te kudasai and o-Verb kudasai, to be dominant directives used in the data collected for this study. Discourse analysis of the texts found the two honorific request constructions signaling different levels of severity of the impending threats in accordance with the different degrees of freedom of actions given to the warning recipients upon complying with the recommended actions. The findings also suggest the use of honorifics helps maintain the warning sender’s institutional identity as they communicate safety information to the public on behalf of the meteorological agency. This paper extends the discussion of the multifunctionality of honorifics by highlighting the use of them in digitally mediated institutional discourse contexts.

AGENT-BASED SIMULATION OF HURRICANE RISK INFORMATION DISSEMINATION

The effectiveness of official warning dissemination and interpretation determines the adoption of protective actions in response to hurricane threat. This paper describes the development of a conceptual warning diffusion model that articulates the whole process of the hurricane warning diffusion and individual decision-making, drawing on emergency management and social science bodies of literature. This conceptual model is then partially encoded into a NetLogo agent-based simulation model to demonstrate the effects of various warning diffusion components on evacuation decisions for areas of interest. The translation of the conceptual model into agent-based simulations can inform the coastal engineering and science communities of the importance of communicating risk information to the public, and also helps to identify future research needed to illuminate hurricane risk communication pathways.

Knowledge, perceptions, and behavioral responses to earthquake early warning in Aotearoa New Zealand

IntroductionAotearoa New Zealand (NZ) experiences frequent earthquakes, with a history of damaging and fatal events, but currently does not have a national, official earthquake early warning (EEW) system. Since April of 2021, Google's Android Earthquake Alert System has operated independently in NZ. While recent work has identified general public support for such a system, it is important to assess public knowledge of EEW as well as typical responses to receiving an alert. The protective actions “Drop, cover, and hold” are recommended and taught in NZ and previous research found strong intentions to undertake these and other protective actions in response to an alert.MethodHowever, it is important to explore a range of responses to these novel EEWs, including how much people know about them, what actions they took in response to the warning, and their overall judgment of the system including its usefulness. We undertook surveys following two widely received alerts from the Android Earthquake Alert System to assess public knowledge, perceptions, and responses to these alerts with a total sample size of 3,150.ResultsWhile most participants who received the alert found it useful, knowledge of both EEW generally and the Android System specifically was low and few participants used the time to protect themselves from shaking.DiscussionThese findings reiterate the importance of education and communication around a warning system, so that the public know how to act when they receive an alert.

African migrant women acquisition of clay for ingestion during pregnancy in London: a call for action

ObjectivesThis study aimed to explore how African migrant women go about acquiring clay for ingestion during pregnancy in London against a backdrop of restrictions and warnings by the Food Standard Agency and Public Health England due to the potential health risks to expectant mothers and their unborn babies. Study designThis was a qualitative study using an interpretative phenomenological approach. MethodsIndividual in-depth interviews and a focus group discussion were used for data collection. Data collection took place between May and August 2020. ResultsParticipants acquired clay from African shops and markets in London, countries of origin and online/social media platforms. Due to official restrictions and warnings, transactions were conducted under the counter based on trust between sellers and the women underpinned by shared community identities. However, clay was acquired, social networks emerged as crucial facilitators. The current top-down approach, which is also lacking a regulatory policy framework, has pushed clay transactions underground, thereby leaving pregnant women potentially ingesting toxic clay with little chances of dictation by authorities. ConclusionWe call on the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and public health practitioners to collaborate with communities to design multilevel/multisectoral interventions as well as the Food Standards Agency (FSA) to consider an appropriate regulatory policy framework.

Risk perception and travel behavior under short-lead evacuation: Post disaster analysis of 2020 Beirut Port Explosion

Human-made disasters continue to be the most dangerous of all types of disasters due to their suddenness and unpredictability. This calls for a thorough examination of people’s evacuation behavior due to its impact on the evacuation procedure and its significance for evacuation planning. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the decision-making process of residents in case a human-made disaster occurs with an application to Beirut, Lebanon. This study is essential for pre-disaster planning, which mitigates potential damage from such disasters. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the current study uses the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) framework to explain intention toward evacuation behavior before a human-made disaster in three situations: being at home with all family members, having absent family members, and being at work or university when the event occurs. The findings of this study show that the PADM framework is relevant to explaining evacuation behavior intentions prior to a human-made disaster incident. Results indicate that knowledge perception does not trigger the intended behavior of evacuating immediately in the studied situations. Besides, the results indicate low confidence in the government’s emergency plans and the unreliability of the official government warnings about human-made hazards. Overall, the findings of this study may contribute to a better understanding of evacuation behavior from disasters with less lead warning time. Besides, they may aid the Disaster Risk Management unit of Lebanon in developing emergency evacuation strategies that: understand the public’s evacuation behavior; customize city-specific evacuation logistics; optimize the dissemination of evacuation information.

Performance of the flood warning system in Germany in July 2021 – insights from affected residents

Abstract. In July 2021 intense rainfall caused devastating floods in western Europe and 184 fatalities in the German federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia (NW) and Rhineland-Palatinate (RP), calling into question their flood forecasting, warning and response system (FFWRS). Data from an online survey (n=1315) reveal that 35 % of the respondents from NW and 29 % from RP did not receive any warning. Of those who were warned, 85 % did not expect very severe flooding and 46 % reported a lack of situational knowledge on protective behaviour. Regression analysis reveals that this knowledge is influenced not only by gender and flood experience but also by the content and the source of the warning message. The results are complemented by analyses of media reports and official warnings that show shortcomings in providing adequate recommendations to people at risk. Still, the share of people who did not report any emergency response is low and comparable to other flood events. However, the perceived effectiveness of the protective behaviour was low and mainly compromised by high water levels and the perceived level of surprise about the flood magnitude. Good situational knowledge and a higher number of previously experienced floods were linked to performing more effective loss-reducing action. Dissemination of warnings, clearer communication of the expected flood magnitude and recommendations on adequate responses to a severe flood, particularly with regard to flash and pluvial floods, are seen as major entry points for improving the FFWRS in Germany.

A review of pre-disaster public awareness activities on public readiness: The 2010 Mentawai tsunami

A qualitative study on impact of pre-disaster public awareness activities on public readiness was conducted in the North and South Pagai Islands after the 25 October 2010 Mentawai earthquake. Parameters of readiness are public response to tsunami and the number of casualties. The results show that public awareness activities that commenced from 2004 have effectively increased people's awareness of tsunamis as indicated by their knowledge of tsunami signals. Yet apart from failure of the official warning system to alert the public in remote areas, the response of people to the natural tsunami signals has been made on the basis of misperceptions of strong earthquake signals and tsunami lead-time. Tsunami lead-time of the Pagai Islands had been perceived as long as that of Sumatra or Java Islands and strong earthquakes have been perceived as merely strong ground shaking. These misperceptions came from invalid materials of public education and invalid translation of scientific information, and were confirmed by people's experiences in the 12 September 2007 Bengkulu earthquake. Hence, despite mitigation by relocating houses to the high ground that has saved many lives in Malakopa and Asahan, there is no evidence on the positive relation of pre-disaster awareness intervention with the reduction in loss of lives in the study sites. In order to not give invalid information on tsunami awareness in the future, instead of using a generic formula of regional tsunamis, public education on tsunami should use a specific formula based on local characteristics. Moreover, sensing earthquakes that may trigger tsunamis through the duration of ground shaking may be more effective than that of the strength of ground shaking. Because sensing time duration is difficult, particularly for communities that are not used to using modern timers, it is necessary to develop simple means of sensing time duration.

The Use of the Official Warning Institute against Holders of Legal Immunities

The official warning institution acts as one of the effective measures for the prevention of offenses. Despite the wide coverage of the theoretical and applied aspects of its application, there is currently no research on the actual issue related to the possibility of implementing this institute in relation to a special category of persons who hold legal immunities. Within the framework of the study, the legal nature of the official warning institution as a preventive measure is revealed through its characteristics such as the place that its application occupies in the system of powers of the relevant subjects of prevention, as well as the legal nature of the measure under consideration. Based on a systematic analysis of the current legislation, it has been established that the announcement of an official warning is not a measure of administrative coercion and does not imply the occurrence of legal consequences. The study of the legal nature of immunity from jurisdiction, implemented in Russian law and having an international legal and state-legal nature, showed that it is aimed not at establishing irresponsibility, but at protecting its holder from the use of coercive measures in connection with the latter's exercise of publicly significant functions. Conclusion: the official warning, being a measure of prevention of offenses, does not affect immunity from the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation, provided for by both international and domestic law. Based on this, the absence of legal obstacles to the full use of the institution of an official warning against holders of legal immunities is justified.

Объявление официального предостережения в уголовно-исполнительной системе: вопросы теории и практики

В статье проводится анализ нормативных правовых актов, регламентирующих профилактику правонарушений в Российской Федерации, а также теории и практики объявления официального предостережения в следственных изоляторах, исправительных учреждениях, исправительных центрах и уголовно-исполнительных инспекциях. Использование формально-юридического и сравнительно-правового методов исследования позволило сформулировать ряд выводов и предложений, обладающих научной новизной, теоретической и практической значимостью. Делается вывод о том, что официальное предостережение является важным правовым средством предупреждения правонарушений и преступлений, а также вносятся предложения по совершенствованию правоприменительной деятельности учреждений и органов уголовно-исполнительной системы в рассматриваемой предметной области. The article analyzes the normative legal acts regulating the prevention of offenses in the Russian Federation, as well as the theory and practice of issuing an official warning in pre-trial detention centers, correctional facilities, correctional centers and penal inspections. The use of formal legal and comparative legal research methods helps formulate a number of conclusions and proposals with scientific novelty, theoretical and practical significance. The author concludes that the official warning is an important legal means of preventing offenses and crimes and proposes to improve law enforcement activities of institutions and bodies of the penal system in the subject area under consideration.

Effects of Cryptocurrencies on Global Economics: A Review Study

The features of a new global economy appear stronger and faster than the changes recorded by the economy throughout history, and the “Covid-19” pandemic has accelerated these transformations, achieving on the ground a global experience to deal with digital payment via credit cards and the use of online payment applications, and it marks the beginning of the end of the era of paper currencies. And the trend towards investing in crypto and digital currencies on the part of investors, in conjunction with the competition of countries around the world to win the issuance of the first digital currency issued by central banks. There are many questions about replacing the digital currency with gold or the dollar in a rapid transformation that changes the trends of the global economy, and the number of cryptocurrencies around the world has reached about 4337 currencies with a market value of $ 1.003 trillion, “Bitcoin” holds the largest share by 66% with a market value of $ 664 billion. Despite many official warnings against investing in these unregulated currencies, fintech startups are witnessing a surge in demand from consumers who are rushing to invest in cryptocurrencies amid great interest and momentum in Bitcoin. Like Revolut, eToro and Luno, cryptocurrency demand surged on their platforms amid the resurgence of Bitcoin prices.

Effects of Cryptocurrencies on Global Economics: A Review Study

The features of a new global economy appear stronger and faster than the changes recorded by the economy throughout history, and the “Covid-19” pandemic has accelerated these transformations, achieving on the ground a global experience to deal with digital payment via credit cards and the use of online payment applications, and it marks the beginning of the end of the era of paper currencies. And the trend towards investing in crypto and digital currencies on the part of investors, in conjunction with the competition of countries around the world to win the issuance of the first digital currency issued by central banks. There are many questions about replacing the digital currency with gold or the dollar in a rapid transformation that changes the trends of the global economy, and the number of cryptocurrencies around the world has reached about 4337 currencies with a market value of $ 1.003 trillion, “Bitcoin” holds the largest share by 66% with a market value of $ 664 billion. Despite many official warnings against investing in these unregulated currencies, fintech startups are witnessing a surge in demand from consumers who are rushing to invest in cryptocurrencies amid great interest and momentum in Bitcoin. Like Revolut, eToro and Luno, cryptocurrency demand surged on their platforms amid the resurgence of Bitcoin prices.

Effects of Cryptocurrencies on Global Economics: A Review Study

The features of a new global economy appear stronger and faster than the changes recorded by the economy throughout history, and the “Covid-19” pandemic has accelerated these transformations, achieving on the ground a global experience to deal with digital payment via credit cards and the use of online payment applications, and it marks the beginning of the end of the era of paper currencies. And the trend towards investing in crypto and digital currencies on the part of investors, in conjunction with the competition of countries around the world to win the issuance of the first digital currency issued by central banks. There are many questions about replacing the digital currency with gold or the dollar in a rapid transformation that changes the trends of the global economy, and the number of cryptocurrencies around the world has reached about 4337 currencies with a market value of $ 1.003 trillion, “Bitcoin” holds the largest share by 66% with a market value of $ 664 billion. Despite many official warnings against investing in these unregulated currencies, fintech startups are witnessing a surge in demand from consumers who are rushing to invest in cryptocurrencies amid great interest and momentum in Bitcoin. Like Revolut, eToro and Luno, cryptocurrency demand surged on their platforms amid the resurgence of Bitcoin prices.