Risk perception and travel behavior under short-lead evacuation: Post disaster analysis of 2020 Beirut Port Explosion

Abstract

Human-made disasters continue to be the most dangerous of all types of disasters due to their suddenness and unpredictability. This calls for a thorough examination of people’s evacuation behavior due to its impact on the evacuation procedure and its significance for evacuation planning. This study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the decision-making process of residents in case a human-made disaster occurs with an application to Beirut, Lebanon. This study is essential for pre-disaster planning, which mitigates potential damage from such disasters. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), the current study uses the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) framework to explain intention toward evacuation behavior before a human-made disaster in three situations: being at home with all family members, having absent family members, and being at work or university when the event occurs. The findings of this study show that the PADM framework is relevant to explaining evacuation behavior intentions prior to a human-made disaster incident. Results indicate that knowledge perception does not trigger the intended behavior of evacuating immediately in the studied situations. Besides, the results indicate low confidence in the government’s emergency plans and the unreliability of the official government warnings about human-made hazards. Overall, the findings of this study may contribute to a better understanding of evacuation behavior from disasters with less lead warning time. Besides, they may aid the Disaster Risk Management unit of Lebanon in developing emergency evacuation strategies that: understand the public’s evacuation behavior; customize city-specific evacuation logistics; optimize the dissemination of evacuation information.