Effects of risk perception and perceived certainty on evacuate/stay decisions

Abstract

In hurricane evacuation studies, the extant literature has extensively explored the effect of risk perception on evacuate/stay decisions. However, less attention has been paid to how perceived certainty affects households' evacuate/stay decisions. The objectives of this paper are to explore the effects of (1) perceived certainty about location of impact on both risk perception and perceived certainty about evacuation logistics; (2) risk perception on perceived certainty about evacuation logistics; and (3) perceived certainty about evacuation logistics on evacuate/stay decisions. Survey data gathered from households in the Jacksonville, Florida metropolitan area after Hurricane Matthew (2016) were analyzed using structural equation modeling (SEM). In addition, SEM allowed us to identify the factors that could be used to predict risk perception, perceived certainty about location of impact, and perceived certainty about evacuation logistics. The results showed that perceived certainty about location of impact had a non-significant effect on risk perception. Perceived certainty about location of impact had a positive effect on perceived certainty about evacuation logistics. However, the effect of risk perception on perceived certainty about evacuation logistics was non-significant. Both risk perception and perceived certainty about evacuation logistics had positive effects on households' evacuation decision while perceived certainty about location of impact had a negative effect on households' likelihood of evacuating. Overall, the findings can be used to improve on the prediction of households’ evacuation behavior.