Official Statistical Agencies Research Articles

Accuracy of small area mortality prediction methods: evidence from Poland

We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age.

Monitoring the direction of the short-term trend of economic indicators

Socioeconomic indicators have long been used by official statistical agencies to analyze and assess the current stage at which the economy stands via the application of linear filters used in conjunction with seasonal adjustment procedures. In this study, we propose a new set of symmetric and asymmetric weights that offer substantial gains in real-time by providing timely and more accurate information for detecting short-term trends with respect to filters commonly applied by statistical agencies. We compare the new filters to the classical ones through application to indicators of the US economy, which remains the linchpin of the global economic system. To assess the superiority of the proposed filters, we develop and evaluate explicit tests of the null hypothesis of no difference in revision accuracy of two competing filters. Furthermore, asymptotic and exact finite-sample tests are proposed and illustrated to assess if two compared filters have equal probabilities of failing to detect turning points at different time horizons after their occurrence.

A Unifying Enlightenment: Institutions of Political Economy in Eighteenth-Century Spain (1700–1808)

A Unifying Enlightenment: Institutions of Political Economy in Eighteenth-Century Spain (1700–1808)

The role of technology capability in supporting firm performance in the high-tech manufacturing industry

Background: Technology has influenced many aspects of life, particularly in the digital era of today. Companies that are closely related to technology are also challenged to keep innovating to stay competitive in the market, especially the higher their technology intensity their products and services are related. This study focuses on examining the technology capability of high-tech manufacturing firms in Indonesia. According to the International Standard Industrial Classification, high-tech manufacturing firms are firms that manufacture computer, electronic, and optical products. The aim of this study is to identify the role of technology capability that influences a firm’s performance and identify whether the value chain mediates the relationship between technology capability to firm performance. Methods: The method used in this study is descriptive quantitative analysis, using multi-linear regression and path analysis to test the hypothesis. The data used in this study is secondary data that came from Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), Indonesia's official statistics agency. The survey data used in this study comes from Indonesia's annual survey of manufacturing firms in 2017. Result: Technology capability and value chain have significant effects on firm performance. Nonetheless, the value chain as an intervening variable has no significant effect on firm performance. In other words, with or without technology utilization of the value chain, both produce similar results. Conclusion: Firms in the high-tech manufacturing industry are expected to have sufficient knowledge and capability in utilizing their technology resources to ensure the firm's long-term viability and to enable them to continuously create innovations, which leads to improved firm performance and thus to their competitive market survival. By identifying the effect of the value chain as an intervening variable and identifying the difference between direct and indirect effects, this study also adds to previous research on the effects of technology capability and value chain on firm performance.

Measuring Pandemic and Lockdown Impacts on Wellbeing.

With the onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic, New Zealand's official statistical agency (Stats NZ) moved quickly to supplement the quarterly Household Labour Force Survey with wellbeing measures from the General Social Survey. The first supplement (June 2020) began toward the end of a restrictive national lockdown. Subsequent quarterly surveys continued through a second lockdown for the Auckland region, enabling tests of regional lockdown impacts. Survey measures include questions on life satisfaction, health, income adequacy, social capital (trust), and loneliness. Published aggregated data indicate that life satisfaction, social capital, health, and financial wellbeing were each higher through the pandemic (in 2020) than prior to it, including for disadvantaged groups, but loneliness rose. Analysis of the individual‐level data, confined to the within‐pandemic period, however indicates that more restrictive lockdowns were associated both with reduced life satisfaction and greater loneliness, with differing impacts according to labor market and household status.

A statistical person register in New Zealand: Progress and challenges

This paper outlines the progress and challenges for Stats NZ in the development of a base Statistical Person Register (SPR) as part of a broader register-based statistical system. Administrative data becomes far more powerful if different types of data and data across different domains can be seamlessly integrated. Stats NZ is working towards a register based statistical system where data from many sources is integrated around three ‘base statistical registers’ for businesses, location and people. The base register for people is the least developed of these core components. This paper describes the challenges Stats NZ have in deriving an SPR in the New Zealand context where there is no national unique person identifier, and no national administrative register. We discuss progress and challenges in these broad areas: methodology, technology, trust and confidence, and the Māori world view. Methodological challenges arise from the need for probabilistic record linkage of several data sources to achieve high coverage. Stats NZ faces technological issues involved with the evolution from existing data systems that have been built over time without an overall integrated design. Most importantly, it is essential that Stats NZ retains trust and confidence as an official statistics agency and develops connections with Māori organisations and communities while developing these new data assets.

International Passenger Traffic at the Hellenic Airports: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Mid-Term Forecasting

The aviation industry in the COVID-19 pandemic era (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen) is practically starting from scratch as significant losses have been recorded since the outbreak in December 2019. This paper focuses on the study of the available historical operational data (provisional and final) of international passenger traffic to and from the Hellenic airports. The data originated from the official state statistics agency (Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority, HCAA). A forecasting model was developed to provide an estimation of the international passenger traffic at the Hellenic airports from August to December 2021. Through this analysis, the severe impact of two lockdown events and how they will affect the expected recovery rate of air travel is demonstrated. From this perspective, some first conclusions can be drawn about the expected recovery of international air travel to the growth rates of the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Techniques for analyzing and presenting official statistics indicators

This paper considers different perspectives of indicators produced by official statistics agencies, with an emphasis on technical aspects. We discuss statistical methods, impact, scope and action operationalisation of official statistic indicators. The focus is on multivariate aspects in analysing and communicating such indicators. To illustrate the points made in the paper, we use examples from well-being indicators, from the UN sustainable development goals and a Eurobarometer example. The overall objective is to enhance the added value of official statistics indicators, as they are communicated, and thus strengthen evidence-based policy-making.

Guidelines on indicator methodology: A mission impossible?

Indicators are part of daily life, modern politics and public debate in times of crises and their solutions. The question arises to what extent indicators embody a special form of statistical information, whether a separate indicator-chapter in statistical methodology is needed and what the content of this chapter should be. This paper considers different perspectives of indicators produced by official statistics agencies. Starting from the definition of indicators, it then discusses statistical quality, impact and interaction between producers and users of indicators. To introduce and illustrate the points made in the paper a choice of cases is used in order to derive the essential elements of a methodological framing. The overall objective is to enhance the added value of official statistics indicators as they are communicated and expected to lead to trustworthy evidence for policy making.

The Murderous Coronavirus: Data and Statistics to Die or to Adapt, But Together – That is the Question

Coronavirus is a health pandemic that threatens to spawn an economic depression. The paper explores how the official statistics constituency has been affected inter alia in its readiness of, responses to and requirements for addressing coronavirus by official statistical agencies. First, in the production of statistics and second in measuring the impact of coronavirus in society. The paper sheds light on how the virus has attacked the very lens of observation – statistics as content and statistics as an institution. In particular we explore how the pandemic disrupted the 2020 Round of Population Censuses and what country responses are. In this regard, the responses of countries would be explored from the logistical and operational readiness and adaptation. We will explore how the statistical lens has been used to understand the effects of COVID-19 on well-being. The results of Alkire–Foster method (see OPHI, 2020) that generates multidimensional poverty index will be shared.

ИНТЕГРАЦИЯ МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫХ ОБРАЗОВАТЕЛЬНЫХ ПРОЕКТОВ В ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННУЮ СИСТЕМУ ОБРАЗОВАНИЯ

Educational environment and education system in particular are the key institutions participating in human resources quality formation and development. Reforms undertaken in these spheres are aimed to enrich and improve qualitative characteristics of population regarding its educational, cultural and professional components. National educational system has developed its own rich traditions and methodological instruments. However, global processes taking place in the world require international trends in educational sphere consideration and analysis. The purpose of this article is to research the degree of educational services market subjects involvement in international educational projects implementation as well as to analyze the effectiveness of international cooperation expansion of in the field of education. The research methodology includes bibliographic, analytical and statistical research methods. The findings are based on statistical data, collected and provided by official statistics bodies, research centres and agencies, analysis. The results of this research have made it possible to identify factors that reduce the effectiveness of international educational projects realization. Consequently, these factors elimination will lead to an increase in professional and academic mobility, quality of education and the competitiveness of Russian educational organizations improvement

The Shelf Life of Official Sub-National Population Forecasts in England

We measure the empirical distribution of the accuracy of projected population in sub-national areas of England, developing the concept of ‘shelf life’: the furthest horizon for which the subsequent best estimate of population is within 10% of the forecast, for at least 80% of areas projected. Since local government reorganisation in 1974, the official statistics agency has projected the population of each local government area in England: for 108 areas in nine forecasts up to the 1993-based, and for over 300 areas in 10 forecasts from the 1996-based to the 2014-based forecasts. By comparing the published forecast (we use this term rather than projection) with the post-census population estimates, the empirical distribution of errors has been described. It is particularly dependent on the forecast horizon and the type of local authority. For 10-year forecasts the median absolute percentage error has been 7% for London Boroughs and 3% for Shire Districts. Users of forecasts tend to have in mind a horizon and a required accuracy that is of relevance to their application. A shelf life of 10 years is not sufficient if the user required that accuracy of a forecast 15 years ahead. The relevant effective shelf life deducts the user’s horizon. We explore the empirical performance of official sub-national forecasts in this light. A five-year forecast for London Boroughs requiring 10% accuracy is already beyond its effective shelf life by the time it is published. Collaboration between forecasters and users of forecasts can develop information on uncertainty that is useful to planning.

Using state space models as a statistical impact measurement of survey redesigns: a case study of the labour force survey of the Australian Bureau of Statistics

ABSTRACTThe goals of any major business transformation programme in an official statistical agency often include improving data collection efficiency, data processing methodologies and data quality. However, the achievement of such improvements may have transitional statistical impacts that could be misinterpreted as real-world changes if they are not measured and handled appropriately.This paper describes a development work that sought to explore the design and analysis of a times-series experiment that measured the statistical impacts that sometimes occur during survey redesigns. The Labour Force Survey (LFS) of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) was used as a case study. In the present study:A large-scale field experiment was designed and conducted that allowed the outgoing and the incoming surveys to run in parallel for some periods to measure the impacts of any changes to the survey process; andThe precision of the impact measurement was continuously improved while the new survey design was being implemented.The state space modelling (SSM) technique was adopted as the main approach, as it provides an efficient impact measurement. This approach enabled sampling error structure to be incorporated in the time-series intervention analysis. The approach was also able to be extended to take advantage of the availability of other related data sources (e.g., the data obtained from the parallel data collection process) to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the impact measurement. As stated above, the LFS was used as a case study; however, the models and methods developed in this study could be extended to other surveys.

Incorporating big microdata in life table construction: A hypothesis-free estimator

The IT revolution, now more than ever, offers a cheaper and faster way to collect, store, transmit and process data. Detailed microdata of dates of death, migration and birth are already becoming available for general populations. In this paper, we develop within the family of period-based estimators a new, assumption-free estimator for constructing life tables. The estimator proposed exploits all the detailed data available and is free of the theoretical inconsistencies that the estimators currently used by most official statistical agencies have. We compute the proposed estimator for a real database and test the suitability of the hypotheses on which the estimators used so far rely. The hypothesis of uniform distribution of birthdays is proven to be inadequate and the one having the largest impact on the estimated probabilities. Given its influence on public pension systems and life insurances, we advocate for adopting the more efficient approaches proposed in this paper.

National Information and Population Survey Systems: selected contributions from the Ministry of Health and the IBGE for analysis of Brazilian state capitals over the past 30 years.

By the late 1980s, increased exchange between WHO regional offices and Health Ministers around the world raised the need for compatible methodologies and data collection tools to measure health status through population surveys, which could then complement the health records of the official statistics agencies in each country, and enabling comparison of National Information Systems. This article analyzes the main contributions of the Ministry of Health and the IBGE for the analysis of the health status of the Brazilian population. As a criterion for inclusion, only data sources in the public domain published periodically for at least the past 20 years, and those generating data at the municipal level were used. From this set, the capitals of Brazil were analyzed. The data shows that after the Unified Healthcare System (SUS) was created, the network of non-hospitalization healthcare experienced a rapid transformation. By 2009 85.5% of such units were under the municipal umbrella, compared to 40.7% when SUS was created. In Brazil, the RIPSA initiative has fulfilled the integrative role for the formation of a National Health Information System, recommended by Article 47 of Law 8.080 / 1990 that instituted the SUS, assigning major responsibility to1 the IBGE.

What does an independent official statistical agency mean in practice?

What does an independent official statistical agency mean in practice?

The characteristics of reports to the police of child sexual abuse and the likelihood of cases proceeding to prosecution after delays in reporting

Delays in disclosing and reporting child sexual abuse to the police are common, particularly among males and those who have been abused by clergy and others in a position of trust. This study, commissioned by the Royal Commission into Institutional Responses to Child Sexual Abuse, examined the patterns of timely and delayed reporting of sexual offences against children, and the likelihood of legal action commencing. De-identified unit record data for all sexual offences against children reported to the police over 20 years were obtained from official crime statistics agencies in two Australian states. While there were similarities between the two states in terms of the influence of public inquiries on reporting numbers over this period, and in the factors associated with delayed reporting, there were substantial differences in the likelihood of legal action being taken in cases reported by a child or adult complainants. In one state, legal action was more likely with increasing delay, until the delays extended to 10–20 years, after which the likelihood of legal action decreased. In the other state, the pattern was quite different – reports of sexual assault were somewhat more likely to result in legal action with immediate reporting. The least likely to proceed were cases involving young children in more recent years; long delays into adulthood were not necessarily adverse for prosecution.

New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI): Value to date and future opportunities

ABSTRACT
 ObjectivesStatistics New Zealand, the official statistics agency of the New Zealand (NZ) Government, has developed an Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI). We aimed to review the value of the IDI to date from a research perspective and to consider the opportunities it provides.
 ApproachWe considered recent projects in which we have been involved: the New Zealand Census-Mortality and CancerTrends studies (NZCMS/CT), a Suicide Mortality Review Committee (SuMRC) feasibility trial, and a study on cardiovascular disease costs in NZ. We also considered IDI-related work published by other agencies and the views expressed at IDI meetings involving health and social sector personnel.
 ResultsSince 1993 in NZ, it has been possible to link all official health datasets using the National Health Index (NHI) number. However it was much more difficult to link health data with data from other sources. Studies often involved much ad hoc data linkage, with different versions of the same data being stored in multiple sites resulting in data integrity and security issues. The IDI provides one place to securely link the various data sources then make the anonymised data available for research for public good.
 The IDI provides the following advantages:
 
 Administrative data sources are available in one place nationally rather than many data silos.
 Health data can be linked with other administrative data eg, tax, education, crime, migration, welfare, housing, population census. 
 It facilitates collaboration between agencies and the sharing of code and associated documentation.
 Increased use of these data means there is more feedback to the source government agencies around data collection standards and data quality issues. 
 It allows for nationally-standardised processes for ensuring that only responsible and capable researchers with appropriate research questions have access to the relevant anonymised data.
 Perhaps the greatest long-term research potential is with the repeated measures data, allowing analyses with greater potential causal inference than previously available.
 All the above reduce the cost of doing research as well as assisting government departments with evaluation and costing studies.
 
 ConclusionsNZ is making good progress with integration of administrative data from the health and social sectors. The IDI is a valuable tool for advancing research that provides government departments and academic researchers with new insights into complex social issues such as crime and vulnerable children. It allows government to target limited resources to those areas where the greatest long-term benefit might be made.

Data Integration and Record Matching: An Austrian Contribution to Research in Official Statistics

Data integration techniques are one of the core elements of DIECOFIS, an EU-funded international research project that aims at developing a methodology for the construction of a system of indicators on competitiveness and fiscal impact on enterprise performance. Data integration is also of major interest for official statistics agencies as a means of using available information more efficiently and improving the quality of the agency’s products. The Austrian member of the project consortium comprises university departments, representatives from the Bundesanstalt Statistik Austria, from the Statistical Department of the Austrian Economic Chamber, and from ec3, a non-profit research corporation. This paper gives a short report on DIECOFIS in general and on the Austrian contribution to the project, mainly dealing with data integration methodology. Various papers that have been read at the DIECOFIS workshop last November in Vienna, will be published as a Special Issue of the Austrian Journal of Statistics.

Das Potential von Mikrodaten sozial- und wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Erhebungen und amtlicher Statistiken für die zeithistorische Forschung

The source-critical analysis and use of statistical micro data from official statistical sources and surveys continues to present methodological and conceptual challenges for contemporary historical research as well as for the social, economic, and behavioral sciences themselves. Up to now, historical studies have cited statistical findings essentially as objective facts, with almost no critical examination of the underlying data sources. This is particularly surprising given that for historians, the unquestioned use of sources would be entirely out of question with their usual source material (mainly written texts and documents). In light of the extraordinary value of micro data as a research source, systematic analysis of raw data both from official statistical agencies and from scientific survey and panel research is a desideratum for contemporary historical research. The focus of discussion in this paper is on topics of innovative contemporary historical research in which the use of microdata archives is particulary fruitful. From an organizational perspective, we underline the primacy of research in planning and developing potentially useful microdata archives for contemporary history. Our discussion also addresses crucial questions of the critical analysis of statistical microdata and the further development of methodological approaches to documenting and evaluating these data from a source-critical perspective. <bold>Zusammenfassung</bold> Die quellenkritische Auswertung bzw. Nutzung der Mikrodaten der amtlichen Statistik und sozial- und wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Erhebungen stellt nach wie vor eine methodische und konzeptionelle Herausforderung für die zeitgeschichtliche Forschung – und die Sozial-, Wirtschafts- und Verhaltenswissenschaften – selbst dar. Bislang werden statistische Befunde in der Zeitgeschichte weitgehend quellenunkritisch als nahezu objektive Tatsachen zitiert. Dies ist erstaunlich, da eine derartige Übernahme höchst zeitgebundener Zahlen für Historiker bezüglich ihrer üblichen Quellen (meist Texten und Dokumenten) ganz und gar nicht in Frage kommt. Angesichts ihres großen Quellenwertes stellt die systematische Aufbereitung und quellenkritische Erschließung der RohdatenBestände der amtlichen Statistik und der wissenschaftsgetragenen Survey- und Panelforschung ein aktuelles Desiderat zeithistorischer Grundlagenforschung dar. Diskutiert werden sollten insbesondere Themenfelder für innovative zeithistorische Forschung, in denen die Erschließung von Mikro-Datenarchiven eine wesentliche Grundlage für erfolgreiche Forschung ist. So kann dem Primat der Forschung bei Planung und Aufbau eines möglicherweise sinnvollen zeitgeschichtlichen Mikrodaten-Archivs auch organisatorisch systematisch Rechnung getragen werden. Zum Gegenstand einer solchen Diskussion gehören auch Fragen der historischen Quellenkritik von Sozialdaten und die methodische Weiterentwicklung bei der quellenkritischen Dokumentation und der Auswertung dieser Daten. <italic>JEL Classification: B40, C18, C89, Z19</italic>