International Passenger Traffic at the Hellenic Airports: Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Mid-Term Forecasting

Nikolaos P Rachaniotis,Nikitas Spiros Koutsoukis,Stavroula P Kitsou,Panos Chountalas

doi:10.3390/aerospace9030143

Nikolaos P Rachaniotis, Nikitas Spiros Koutsoukis + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace9030143

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Abstract

The aviation industry in the COVID-19 pandemic era (caused by the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen) is practically starting from scratch as significant losses have been recorded since the outbreak in December 2019. This paper focuses on the study of the available historical operational data (provisional and final) of international passenger traffic to and from the Hellenic airports. The data originated from the official state statistics agency (Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority, HCAA). A forecasting model was developed to provide an estimation of the international passenger traffic at the Hellenic airports from August to December 2021. Through this analysis, the severe impact of two lockdown events and how they will affect the expected recovery rate of air travel is demonstrated. From this perspective, some first conclusions can be drawn about the expected recovery of international air travel to the growth rates of the 2019 pre-pandemic levels.

Highlights

The worldwide aviation industry is going through an unprecedented downturn as the COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 170 countries and caused losses of billions of dollars since December 2019 [1]
Since air transportation has been proved to be directly related to the universal propagation of COVID-19 [2], this paper proposes a quantitative forecasting model for identifying the impact on international passenger traffic to and from the Hellenic airports
It aims to contribute to the better organizational knowledge of how COVID-19 presents a threat, for the Hellenic air transportation industry, and to provide a useful mid-term forecasting tool for international passenger traffic at Hellenic airports

Summary

Introduction

The worldwide aviation industry is going through an unprecedented downturn as the COVID-19 pandemic has affected more than 170 countries and caused losses of billions of dollars since December 2019 [1]. Since air transportation has been proved to be directly related to the universal propagation of COVID-19 [2], this paper proposes a quantitative forecasting model for identifying the impact on international passenger traffic to and from the Hellenic airports. It aims to contribute to the better organizational knowledge of how COVID-19 presents a threat, for the Hellenic air transportation industry, and to provide a useful mid-term forecasting tool for international passenger traffic at Hellenic airports. A reliable forecasting tool applicable to the aviation industry will contribute to less operational uncertainty, better planning, and risk-aware decision making. Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations

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