Offenders Index Research Articles

Estimating the Effects of Secure Services on Reconviction. Part 2 – Fewer Convictions Than Expected? Six Year Follow Up of an England and Wales Medium Secure Cohort

The effect of medium secure care on reoffending is unknown; adequate control groups cannot be identified and exposure to reconviction may be confounded by onward placement and by legal restrictions. Retrospective analysis of convictions for an England and Wales National Cohort of adults discharged from 35 medium secure services during 1997/8. Data were retrieved from the Offenders Index and from each service. Reconviction risk for 711 cases was estimated using Offending Groups Reconviction Scale-2 (OGRS-2). Reconviction (any standard list offense) served as the sole outcome during a uniform six-year follow up. Reconviction outcomes were highest following transfer to prison, reduced by further secure care whilst restriction orders were effective in reducing convictions only in those at high risk. Substantial reductions in reconvictions were observed across the full range of criminogenic risk after control of the above confounding. OGRS-2 proved a useful assay for estimating the effects of secure services on reconvictions. Analysis of more contemporary samples using the current methods and more recent versions of OGRS is warranted.

Exploiting the coverage of administrative data to understand changing criminal careers and the causes of the crime drop: changing conviction patterns in the Scottish Offenders Index, 1989-2011

BackgroundThe status of the Scottish Offenders Index (SOI) as a census (n=all) of conviction proceedings in Scotland allows the adoption of research designs that would be prohibitively costly and time consuming to implement with more traditional survey approaches. This paper argues that this flexibility, combined with the large time span covered by the SOI (1989-current), provides a way to bridge the typical individual (micro-) focus of developmental criminology and the (macro-) analysis of aggregate crime rates.
 ObjectivesBy examining conviction patterns for multiple cohorts across multiple years, we can infer whether recent falls in aggregate conviction rates are most plausibly explained by period or cohort effects. In turn, this distinction between period and cohort effects can both suggest which potential explanations for these recent falls in conviction rates in Scotland are most feasible - thus helping to refine explanations for the recent ’crime drop’ - and help us understand the factors leading to change in criminal careers over time.
 Methods and FindingsTo support these claims, this paper presents the results of an exploratory analysis of change in convictions patterns in the SOI between 1989 and 2011, drawing on demographic information to account for change in population structure. Results show a complex pattern of change over time, with differences in convictions trends for young and old, for men and women and in different periods. Explanations of the crime drop must be able to account for these complex trends.
 ConclusionsAdministrative data provide a unique window into the recent crime drop, and we encourage similar studies on comparable datasets where possible.

Smoothing Group-Based Trajectory Models Through B-Splines

This paper investigates the use of B-spline smoothers as an alternative to polynomials when estimating trajectory shape in group-based trajectory models. The use of polynomials in these models can cause undesirable curve shapes, such as uplifts at the end of the trajectory, which may not be present in the data. Moreover, polynomial curves are global, meaning that a data point at one end of the trajectory can affect the shape of the curve at the other end. We use the UK Offenders Index 1963 birth cohort to investigate the use of B-splines. The models are fitted using Latent Gold, and two information criteria (BIC and ICL-BIC) are used to estimate the number of knots of the B-spline, as well as the number of groups. A small simulation study is also presented. A three-group solution was chosen. It is shown that B-splines can provide a better fit to the observed data than cubic polynomials. The offending trajectory groups correspond to the classic groups of adolescent-limited, low-rate chronic and high-rate chronic which were proposed by Moffitt. The shapes of the two chronic trajectory curves from the B-spline fitting are more consistent with the life-course persistent nature of chronic offending than the traditional cubic polynomial curves. The simulation shows improved performance of the B-spline over cubic polynomials. The use of B-splines is recommended when fitting group-based trajectory models. Some software products need further development to include such facilities, and we encourage this development.

The long term recidivism risk of young sexual offenders in England and Wales– enduring risk or redemption?

PurposeTo examine the long-term sexual recidivism risk of juvenile sex offenders in England and Wales, and to compare the risk to that of a first time sexual offense for non-convicted juveniles. Additionally, the study explores the long term sexual recidivism risk of other types of juvenile offenders, and the long term violent recidivism risk of these groups. MethodsThe England and Wales Offenders Index was used to extract birth cohort data. Life table methods were used to estimate cumulative recidivism risk, and discrete time hazard models were used to compare hazard functions. ResultsAt the five year period, 7% of juvenile sexual offenders have been reconvicted of a sexual offense; reaching 13% by the end of the 35year follow-up. When the reconviction hazard of the juvenile sexual offenders was compared with the first sexual conviction risk of a non-convicted comparison group, the hazards converged statistically after 17years. ConclusionsThe study has implications for the registration periods of juvenile sex offenders. Indefinite registration for some juveniles needs to be considered, and a review of registration after a conviction free period would provide more balance between the protection of the public and the rights of the offender.

Explaining Criminal Careers: Implications for Justice Policy

1. Criminal Career Research, Mathematical Models, and Testing Quantitative Predictions from Theories 2. An Analysis of the Offenders Index 3. The Theory and a Simple Model 4. Criminal Careers of Serious, Less Serious, and Trivial Offenders 5. Is Age the Primary Influence on Offending? 6. Characteristics of Individuals 7. Applications for Managing the Criminal Justice System 8. Criminal Policy Implications 9. Summary and Conclusions Appendix: Mathematical Notes

A Longitudinal Study of Escalation in Crime Seriousness

Escalation in crime seriousness over the criminal lifecourse continues to be an important issue to study in criminal careers. Quantitative research in this area has not yet been well developed owing to the difficulty of measuring crime seriousness and the complexity of escalation trajectories. In this paper we suggest that there are two types of escalation process—escalation associated with experience of the criminal justice process, and escalation associated with age and maturation. Using the 1953 birth cohort from the England and Wales Offenders Index followed up to 1999, and a recently developed seriousness scale of offenses, we constructed the individual sequences of seriousness scores from conviction to conviction. These individual sequences were then analyzed using a variety of longitudinal mixed models, with age, number of conviction occasions, sex and number of offenses used as covariates. The results suggest that ageing is associated with de-escalation whereas the number of conviction occasions are associated with escalation, with the two processes pulling in different directions. This conceptual framework helps to disentangle previously contradictory results in the escalation literature.

Engagement in a medium secure personality disorder service: A comparative study of psychological functioning and offending outcomes

Specialist treatment programmes for personality disordered offenders suffer from high rates of non-completion. This has important consequences for service providers and individual patients. Data from hospital records and the Offenders Index were compared for groups of treatment completers (n = 22) and non-completers (n = 59) discharged from a specialist treatment programme. Twenty-seven percent of patients completed treatment, 37% were expelled for rule breaking and 35% disengaged early from treatment. Psychometric assessments of anger expression and anxiety showed no differences between the groups, however, treatment completers showed lower levels of impulsivity and psychopathy than either of the non-completer groups. Rates of post-discharge offending for grave and standard list offences were 56.8 and 10.8%, respectively. Despite careful selection methods, a large proportion of personality-disordered patients admitted to specialist units failed to complete treatment. Psychometric assessments of anger expression, anxiety and impulsivity showed limited utility in differentiating treatment completers and non-completers. Sample size limitations in this naturalistic follow-up impacted on the interpretation of differences observed between the groups on the primary outcome measure of re-offending after discharge.

Searching a DNA databank with complex mixtures from two individuals

In 2000, Canada established a CODIS-based National DNA Databank (NDDB) composed of two indices: a Convicted Offender Index (COI) and a Crime Scene Index (CSI). Our laboratory populates the CSI index with single-source and mixed profiles on the 13 P+/COfiler ® loci. These mixtures are coded based on the number of mixed loci (loci with more than 2 alleles). We first compared the behaviour of several hundreds low complexity mixtures (≤3 mixed loci), moderate complexity mixtures (4–6 mixed loci) and single-source profiles uploaded over the past 9 years, when run against 180 000 COI profiles. We demonstrated the value of searching a databank with mixtures as hundreds of matches were reported to investigators, while the proportion of rejected matches was similar across the 3 types of samples. Based on these results, we designed a new study to evaluate 130 complex (7–13 mixed loci), two-contributor mixtures which were run against the COI. Results show that such mixtures return a manageable number of candidate matches in spite of their complexity: 70% returned no candidates while only a few generated more than one candidate. Databanking strategies coupled with mixture interpretation guidelines and review of original electropherograms maximise the use of a databank while minimising the risk of adventitious hits.

Criminal convictions among children and young adults

This study focuses on court conviction rates—that is, the numbers and proportion of the population in England and Wales who are convicted of a crime between the ages of 10—25. Data on over 47,000 male and 10,000 female offenders for six specific birth cohorts (those born in 1953, 1958, 1963, 1968, 1973 and 1978) were extracted from the Offenders Index. We related convictions in three age groups (10—15, 16—20, 21—25) to population estimates for these age groups. Striking differences in the conviction rates over time were observed for both males and females. There is a remarkable decline among the 10—15 age group for more recent cohorts which echoes the increasing use of court diversionary procedures in this age group. There is no corresponding increase in conviction rates for the later age groups. These figures suggest that efforts in the 1980s and early 1990s to divert offenders away from court convictions have been successful, and that such diversionary schemes need to be encouraged.

Kidnapping offenders: Their risk of escalation to repeat offending and other serious crime

Kidnapping is a rare offence and is also rarely considered by researchers. We extracted from the England and Wales Offenders Index all 7362 offenders (93% males and 7% females) convicted of kidnapping from 1979 to 2001. We examined the time from first conviction for kidnapping to some specific subsequent serious crimes: subsequent kidnap, murder, manslaughter, or rape of a female. Two survival analysis procedures were used: Kaplan-Meier estimation as a nonparametric procedure, and the Cox proportional hazards model as a semi-parametric model. Kidnappers are more likely to be convicted of another kidnapping offence than be convicted of the more serious offences of rape of a female or homicide. One can estimate that five out of every 100 kidnapping offenders convicted of first-time kidnapping will be reconvicted for this offence within 20 years. Incontrast, one in every 100 kidnapping offenders will be convicted of homicide within 20 years, and close to two out of every 100 will be convicted of rape of a female within 20 years. Number of previous convictions is a significant risk factor for each of these serious reconvictions, with age at first kidnapping also a significant risk factor for kidnapping reconviction. Kidnappers are over 30 times more likely than males in the general population to be convicted of homicide and fourtimes more likely than sex offenders. There should be, therefore, more focus on kidnappers as a potentially dangerous set of offenders.

Developmental trajectories associated with juvenile sexually abusive behaviour and emerging severe personality disorder in childhood: 3-year study

Little is known about the developmental trajectories of juveniles presenting with sexually abusive behaviour or emerging severe personality disorder traits. To investigate whether ;age at onset' of sexually abusive behaviour and whether emerging severe personality disorder traits are associated with specific developmental profiles. A retrospective file review of 280 juveniles presenting with sexually abusive behaviour was conducted and follow-up Offenders Index data were analysed. Juveniles with early onset (<11 years) of sexually abusive behaviour had higher levels of psychosocial adversity and early childhood antisocial behaviour compared withthose with late onset. Emerging severe personality disorder traits were associated with higher levels of psychosocial adversity, antisocial behaviour, convictions and predatory sexually abusive behaviour. Preliminary evidence supports the existence of distinct developmental trajectories within this population and points to a key role for traits of emerging severe personality disorder.

Patients discharged from medium secure forensic psychiatry services: reconvictions and risk factors

Treatment within medium secure forensic psychiatry services is expected to reduce risk to the public. To measure the period prevalence and incidence of offending following discharge and identify associated risk factors. Follow-up of patients from 7 of 14 regional services in England and Wales who spent time at risk (n=1344) for a mean of 6.2 years. Outcome was obtained from offenders index, hospital case-files and the central register of deaths. One in 8 men and 1 in 16 women were convicted of grave offences. Incidence rates indicated low density and most patients were not subsequently convicted. Offence predictors included gender, younger age, early-onset offending, previous convictions and a comorbid or primary diagnosis of personality disorder. Longer in-patient stay and restriction on discharge were protective. Risks of reoffending remain for a subgroup of discharged patients. Future research should aim to improve their identification and risk management following discharge.

Assessing crossover in a sample of sexual offenders with multiple victims

Purpose. This study examined the proportion of sexual offenders in England and Wales who exhibited ‘crossover’ in their choice of victim, as defined by age, gender and relationship to the offender. It subsequently aimed to identify criminal and demographic variables predictive of crossover.Method. The sample comprised 1,345 adult male sexual offenders. All had offended against multiple victims and had been discharged from custody in England and Wales between 1992 and 1996. Offence summaries within police records were used to collect victim details for each sexual conviction for each offender, and criminal conviction histories were obtained from the Offenders Index for the sample.Results. A quarter of the sample (24.5%, n = 330) demonstrated crossover behaviour in regard to at least one of the victim dimensions examined (i.e. age, gender or relationship). Using the risk predictor Static‐99, these offenders were found to be significantly riskier than those who did not display crossover behaviour. Multinomial regression failed to identify reliable variables predictive of crossover.Conclusions. The findings from this study are likely to represent an underestimate of the prevalence of crossover within sexual offenders in England and Wales. Reasons for this are discussed, and the implications of crossover for offender risk assessment, treatment, community supervision and policing practices are explored.

Crossing the racial divide: a spatial-ecological perspective of offenders in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality, South Africa

Post-apartheid South Africa has been plagued by an increase in crime and a concomitant increase in the number of incarcerated offenders. Researchers have postulated many proximate causes for the insidious increase in crime, including the vast socio-economic inequalities existing in the country, a remnant of apartheid-era policies and post-apartheid migrations. This article focuses on the neglected field of the environmental criminology of offenders. Following a spatial-ecological approach the relationship between various socio-economic variables and offender rates in the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality in South Africa is modelled. The GIS-based methodological procedure includes a crime offender index, correlational analysis and principal components analysis and produced five factors: social status and income, family characteristics, unskilled earner, residential mobility and ageing population. These five factors, accounted for almost 75% of the variance in the offender index. The findings of our research reject race as a determinant of crime, and rather highlight existing and emerging socio-economic inequalities in the globally connected post-industrial city in regions of political instability and economic uncertainty and its relationship with crime and crime prevention.

The correlation between motoring and other types of offence

This paper examines the link between traffic offences and criminal offences in Great Britain statistically by linking offence data from two national sources: the Driving and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) and the Home Office. A stratified sample of over 52,000 drivers was selected from DVLA records and matched with the Home Office Offenders Index. The numbers of motoring and non-motoring offences committed by these drivers between 1999 and 2003 were compared at various levels of detail. The results demonstrate the strength of the relationship between the number of motoring and non-motoring offences committed. For example, men who committed between 4 and 8 non-motoring offences committed on average 21 times as many serious motoring offences as men who committed no non-motoring offences, and 3.9 times as many other motoring offences. The strongest relationship was found for the offence of driving while disqualified: on average, men who committed at least 9 non-motoring offences between 1999 and 2003 committed more than 100 times as many of these offences as men who committed no non-motoring offences. At the other extreme, the number of speeding offences was found to decrease with the number of non-motoring offences committed.

Organizing the Argentinean Combined DNA Index System (CODIS)

As proposed our Latin American Society for Forensic Genetics in June 17th, 2003, last year the Argentinean Minister of Justice, Security and Human Rights signed the Resolution #415/2004 (full text available in Spanish in www.slagf.org), which created the DNA Fingerprint Registry, similar to the American CODIS. The Registry blends computer and DNA technologies into an effective tool for fighting violent crime. The system uses two indexes to generate investigative leads in crimes where biological evidence is recovered from the crime scene. The Convicted Offender index contains DNA profiles of individuals convicted of felony sex offenses (and other violent crimes). The Forensic index contains DNA profiles developed from crime scene evidence. The Registry utilizes computer software to automatically search these indexes for matching DNA profiles. Like the American CODIS, this is a system of pointers; the database only contains information necessary for making matches. Profiles stored contain a specimen identifier, the sponsoring laboratory's identifier, the initials (or name) of DNA personnel associated with the analysis, and the actual DNA characteristics. Matches made among profiles in the Forensic Index can link crime scenes together; possibly identifying serial offenders. Based on a match, police can coordinate separate investigations, and share leads developed independently. Matches made between the Forensic and Convicted Offender indexes ultimately provide investigators with the identity of the suspect(s). Following are the major enhancements planned for the next years: There are differences among province laws, so the first step is to make them compatible.•Optimize software performance for Local, Province and National Indexes.•Select the labs with high-quality standards. Quality controls in Latin America are conducted by the Latin American Society for Forensic Genetics and the Spanish and Portuguese Speaking Group of the ISFG.•Training courses to DNA analysts from participating laboratories. Until now, the training courses in Latin America are organized by the Latin American Society for Forensic Genetics.•Begin operation of the National DNA Index System.•Proliferate the installed base to include all crime laboratories performing DNA analysis.

Multiple Cohort Data, Delinquent Generations, and Criminal Careers

This article investigates the effect of birth cohort membership on the risk of criminal conviction. The data used are taken from the England andWales Offenders Index and include official conviction histories of six birth cohorts of offenders. Particular problems related to the analysis of official conviction data are discussed, including the need to take account of temporal changes in the age-crime curve caused by social change and criminal policy and the need to be aware of identification issues. A Poisson log-linear model approach is taken. Including data on previous convictions can help explain heterogeneity. An interaction of previous convictions with yearwas found to be important, indicating that additional previous convictions have a greater effect on the conviction rate for more recent years. There is a weak cohort effect for males and a very weak effect for females, after controlling for age, year, previous convictions, and interactions between them.

Profiles of Crime Recruitment: Changing Patterns over Time

Labelling theorists have stressed the importance of the first conviction in court as a significant change in an individual's public identity. Being described as a ‘murderer’, ‘thief’, etc. may have different implications for the development of a deviant identity. This paper describes the crime profile of offenders at the defining moment of their first criminal conviction. Using the six birth cohorts derived from the Offenders Index, changes over time are considered in two ways: changes within a birth cohort and changes between birth cohorts. There are considerable changes in the patterns of offending over time, with important gender differences. Three offence categories of burglary, robbery and violence, and drugs are considered in detail. Burglary has an age effect over time. Robbery and violence seem to have a significant cohort effect, while drugs offences show some evidence of a period effect.

Sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales: A 21‐year reconviction study

Purpose. This study examined the reconviction rates of a cohort of sexual offenders released from prison in England and Wales during 1979. A 21‐year follow‐up period was used and sexual, violent and general reconvictions assessed.Method. The sample consisted of all adult male sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales during 1979 (N = 419). Criminal conviction histories were obtained for the sample from the Offenders Index and sexual, violent and general reconvictions were calculated, over a period of 21 years (1979‐2000).Results. A quarter (24.6%) of the sample received a reconviction for a sexual offence over the 21‐year follow‐up period, 21.7% received a violent reconviction and 61.8% received a general reconviction. A proportion of the sample received their first sexual reconviction 5, 10 or 15 years after being discharged from custody, thus remaining at risk of reconviction for many years.Conclusions. The findings from this study give a unique insight into the long‐term offending of discharged sexual offenders in England and Wales and have implications for the supervision of such offenders.

Identifying Patterns and Pathways of Offending Behaviour

This study presents a new approach to developing a typology of criminal activity. The distinguishing feature of the analysis is that it concentrates on determining types of activity rather than the amounts of activity over the life course. The methodology involves investigating criminal activity in a succession of five-year periods rather than the conventional approach of summarizing a ‘lifetime’ of crime. This provides scope for assessing changes and pathways of criminal activity as offenders grow older, and gives new insight into the concepts of specialization and versatility. The Home Office Offenders Index birth cohort for 1953 provided official conviction histories up to 1993 (age 40), and latent class analysis identified a fixed number of types of criminal behaviour separately for males and females. The patterns of offending varied markedly between males and females. Male offending (with nine identified types) showed greater diversity than female offending (with three identified types). For the males, each type of offending had a distinct age profile, but this was not evident with the females. A new definition of offending specialization is given, and is shown to increase for males as offenders grow older. A case study on one of the male offending types illustrates the potential for identifying pathways of crime.