Ocean Resolution Research Articles

Distributed fibre optic sensing for high space-time resolution ocean velocity observations: A case study from a macrotidal channel

Distributed fibre optic sensing for high space-time resolution ocean velocity observations: A case study from a macrotidal channel

Arctic sea ice mass balance in a new coupled ice–ocean model using a brittle rheology framework

Abstract. Sea ice is a key component of the Earth's climate system as it modulates the energy exchanges and associated feedback processes at the air–sea interface in polar regions. These exchanges have been suggested to strongly depend on openings in the sea ice cover, which are associated with fine-scale sea ice deformations, but the importance of these processes remains poorly understood as most numerical models struggle to represent these deformations without using very costly horizontal resolutions (≃ 5 km). In this study, we present results from a 12 km resolution ocean–sea ice coupled model, the first that uses a brittle rheology to represent the mechanical behaviour of sea ice. This rheology has been shown to reproduce observed characteristics and complexity of fine-scale sea ice deformations at relatively coarse resolutions. We evaluate and discuss the Arctic sea ice mass balance of this coupled model for the period 2000–2018. We first assess sea ice quantities relevant for climate (volume, extent, and drift) and find that they are consistent with satellite observations. We evaluate components of the mass balance for which observations are available, i.e. sea ice volume export through Fram Strait and winter mass balance in the Arctic marginal seas for the period 2003–2018. Model values show a good match with observations, remaining within the estimated uncertainty, and the interannual variability of the dynamic contribution to the winter mass balance is generally well captured. We discuss the relative contributions of dynamics and thermodynamics to the sea ice mass balance in the Arctic Basin for 2000–2018. Using the ability of the model to represent divergence motions at different scales, we investigate the role of leads and polynyas in ice production. We suggest a way to estimate the contribution of leads and polynyas to ice growth in winter, and we estimate this contribution to add up to 25 %–35 % of the total ice growth in pack ice from January to March. This contribution shows a significant increase over 2000–2018. This coupled framework opens up new opportunities to understand and quantify the interplay between small-scale sea ice dynamics and ocean properties.

North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Outer Size and Structure Remain Unchanged by the Late Twenty-First Century

Abstract There is a lack of consensus on whether North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) outer size and structure (i.e., change in outer winds with increasing radius from the TC) will differ by the late twenty-first century. Hence, this work seeks to examine whether North Atlantic TC outer wind field size and structure will change by the late twenty-first century using multiple simulations under CMIP3 SRES A1B and CMIP5 RCP4.5 scenarios. Specifically, our analysis examines data from the GFDL High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution model (HiFLOR) and two versions of the GFDL hurricane model downscaling climate model output. Our results show that projected North Atlantic TC outer size and structure remain unchanged by the late twenty-first century within nearly all HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. Moreover, no significant regional outer size differences exist in the North Atlantic within most HiFLOR and GFDL hurricane model simulations. No changes between the control and late-twenty-first-century simulations exist over the storm life cycle in nearly all simulations. For the simulation that shows significant decreases in TC outer size, the changes are attributed to reductions in storm lifetime and outer size growth rates. The absence of differences in outer size among most simulations is consistent with the process that controls the theoretical upper bound of storm size (i.e., Rhines scaling), which is thermodynamically invariant. However, the lack of complete consensus among simulations for many of these conclusions suggests nontrivial uncertainty in our results.

Does Increasing Climate Model Horizontal Resolution Be Beneficial for the Mediterranean Region?: Multimodel Evaluation Framework for High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project

AbstractThe Mediterranean region (MR) is one of the climate change hot spots, posing serious threats to society. The insufficient resolution of the global climate models limits their capability to resolve the complex topography over MR, resulting in a large bias in climate variables. This study examines the performance of four Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six models from the High‐Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) in reproducing the Mediterranean climate. A special focus is put on the role of oceanic and atmospheric model horizontal resolution and spread among the models. Various aspects, relevant to air‐sea interactions and precipitation are examined, including the mean, extremes, and associated mechanisms. All HighResMIP models reasonably well capture the large‐scale oceanic and atmospheric characteristics, but there is a sizable model‐to‐model difference. The Hadley Centre Global Environment Model and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts generally perform better than the other models at comparable atmospheric and oceanic horizontal resolutions. A finer oceanic resolution improves the representation not only of oceanic characteristics (i.e., sea surface temperature, SST) but also of the atmospheric processes (wind and precipitation). Likewise, increasing atmospheric model resolution benefits various atmospheric and ocean characteristics. Over some sub‐basins of the Mediterranean Sea, the intensification of surface wind speed results in the deepening of the ocean's mixed layer leading to cooling, indicating negative feedback in Wind‐SST. In contrast, in other regions, the warmer SST results in the intensification of wind (positive feedback in Wind‐SST).

Examining the sensitivity of ocean response to oceanic grid resolution in COAMPS-TC during Hurricane Irma (2017)

Using the Navy's Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), we investigate the sensitivity of upper ocean momentum processes to varying ocean horizontal and vertical resolutions during Hurricane Irma (2017). This study aims to examine the impact of ocean resolution sensitivity on the representation of the ocean mixed layer (OML) and thermocline heat and salt budget when the tropical cyclone (TC) is at maximum intensity east of the Lesser Antilles. Results indicate that changes in ocean resolution over the forecast period do not greatly affect TC track but have variable influence on TC intensity. OML budget analyses reveal that at coarser horizontal resolutions, the overall OML response is sensitive to vertical ocean resolution. Additionally, the dominant OML processes change as horizontal resolution increases with the dependence shifting from horizontal advection to vertical mixing. Examining budget tendencies with respect to TC quadrant reveals that the right-rear quadrant ocean response is least sensitive to grid spacing. However, the OML response within the front quadrants is most sensitive to resolution changes. Moreover, thermocline downwelling is apparent in both front quadrants and the left-rear quadrant. This downwelling response is caused by a mass convergence within the OML, pumping surface water into the ocean interior. Ocean grid resolution sensitivities in coupled TC forecast models are vital to understand since OML response is indicative of air-sea response and, thus, may contribute to forecasted TC intensity. • Modeled TC intensity varies up to 12 kt at 24 h by only changing ocean grid resolution. • Dominant oceanic processes are sensitive to ocean grid resolution and change with respect to TC quadrant. • Consider increasing upper ocean vertical resolution for horizontal resolutions ≥ 10 km.

Boundary Currents at the Northern Edge of the Chukchi Sea at 166°W

AbstractData from two moorings deployed at 166°W on the northern Chukchi shelf and slope from summer 2002 to fall 2004, as part of the Western Arctic Shelf‐Basin Interactions program, are analyzed to investigate the characteristics and variability of the flow in this region. The depth‐mean velocity at the outer‐shelf mooring is northeastward and bottom‐intensified, while that at the upper‐slope mooring is northwestward and surface‐intensified. This, together with results from a high resolution ocean and sea ice reanalysis, indicates that the outer‐shelf mooring sampled the seaward edge of the Chukchi Shelfbreak Jet, while the upper‐slope mooring sampled the shoreward edge of the Chukchi Slope Current. The coupled variability in velocity at both sites is related to the wind stress curl over the Chukchi Sea shelf, likely via Ekman dynamics and geostrophic set up, analogous to the dynamics of both currents closer to Barrow Canyon near 157°W. Hydrographic signals are analyzed to elucidate the origin of the water masses present at this location. It is argued that the annual appearance of Pacific‐origin warm water at the outer‐shelf (upper‐slope) mooring in late‐fall and winter originates from Herald (Barrow) Canyon some months earlier. Our results constitute the first robust evidence that the westward‐flowing Chukchi Slope Current persists this far west of Barrow Canyon.

Mechanisms Driving the Dispersal of Hydrothermal Iron From the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge

AbstractThe dispersal of dissolved iron (DFe) from hydrothermal vents is poorly constrained. Combining field observations and a modeling hierarchy, we find the dispersal of DFe from the Trans‐Atlantic‐Geotraverse vent site occurs predominantly in the colloidal phase and is controlled by multiple physical processes. Enhanced mixing near the seafloor and transport through fracture zones at fine‐scales interacts with the wider ocean circulation to drive predominant westward DFe dispersal away from the Mid‐Atlantic ridge at the 100 km scale. In contrast, diapycnal mixing predominantly drives northward DFe transport within the ridge axial valley. The observed DFe dispersal is not reproduced by the coarse resolution ocean models typically used to assess ocean iron cycling due to their omission of local topography and mixing. Unless biogeochemical models account for fine‐scale physics and colloidal Fe, they will inaccurately represent DFe dispersal from axial valley ridge systems, which make up half of the global ocean ridge crest.

Mechanisms of Regional Arctic Sea Ice Predictability in Two Dynamical Seasonal Forecast Systems

Abstract Research over the past decade has demonstrated that dynamical forecast systems can skillfully predict pan-Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) on the seasonal time scale; however, there have been fewer assessments of prediction skill on user-relevant spatial scales. In this work, we evaluate regional Arctic SIE predictions made with the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) and Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research (SPEAR_MED) dynamical seasonal forecast systems developed at the NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Compared to FLOR, we find that the recently developed SPEAR_MED system displays improved skill in predicting regional detrended SIE anomalies, partially owing to improvements in sea ice concentration (SIC) and thickness (SIT) initial conditions. In both systems, winter SIE is skillfully predicted up to 11 months in advance, whereas summer minimum SIE predictions are limited by the Arctic spring predictability barrier, with typical skill horizons of roughly 4 months. We construct a parsimonious set of simple statistical prediction models to investigate the mechanisms of sea ice predictability in these systems. Three distinct predictability regimes are identified: a summer regime dominated by SIE and SIT anomaly persistence; a winter regime dominated by SIE and upper-ocean heat content (uOHC) anomaly persistence; and a combined regime in the Chukchi Sea, characterized by a trade-off between uOHC-based and SIT-based predictability that occurs as the sea ice edge position evolves seasonally. The combination of regional SIE, SIT, and uOHC predictors is able to reproduce the SIE skill of the dynamical models in nearly all regions, suggesting that these statistical predictors provide a stringent skill benchmark for assessing seasonal sea ice prediction systems.

A global long-term ocean surface daily/0.05° net radiation product from 1983–2020

The all-wave net radiation (Rn) on the ocean surface characterizes the available radiative energy balance and is important to understand the Earth’s climate system. Considering the shortcomings of available ocean surface Rn datasets (e.g., coarse spatial resolutions, discrepancy in accuracy, inconsistency, and short duration), a new long-term global daily Rn product at a spatial resolution of 0.05° from 1983 to 2020, as part of the Global High Resolution Ocean Surface Energy (GHOSE) products suite, was generated in this study by fusing several existing datasets including satellite and reanalysis products based on the comprehensive in situ measurements from 68 globally distributed moored buoy sites. Evaluation against in-situ measurements shows the root mean square difference, mean bias error and correlation coefficient squared of 23.56 Wm−2, 0.88 Wm−2 and 0.878. The global average ocean surface Rn over 1983–2020 is estimated to be 119.71 ± 2.78 Wm−2 with a significant increasing rate of 0.16 Wm−2 per year. GHOSE Rn product can be valuable for oceanic and climatic studies.

Will Increasing Climate Model Resolution Be Beneficial for ENSO Simulation?

AbstractIncreasing climate model resolution offers multifaceted benefits, such as improving modeled tropical cyclones. However, the extent to which it benefits El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulation remains unknown. Here, comprehensive information on the sensitivity of ENSO performance to various resolutions is provided, based on a multi‐model and multi‐resolution ensemble of global coupled models. Overall, the reduced model biases of the equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation mean state in higher‐resolution models may be attributed to increased oceanic resolution, and thus, better resolved eddy‐driven heat transport. ENSO spatial patterns were reproduced clearer in the eddy‐present models, likely due to the improved mean state and associated surface thermodynamic feedback. However, increasing atmospheric resolution alone deteriorates ENSO asymmetry, which may be due to the degradation of nonlinear atmospheric feedback. It remains challenging to alleviate the SST−shortwave‐flux feedback bias, which is a major source of too‐weak net heat flux feedback, irrespective of model resolution.

AMOC Recent and Future Trends: A Crucial Role for Oceanic Resolution and Greenland Melting?

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a crucial element of the Earth climate. It is a complex circulation system difficult to monitor and to model. There is considerable debate regarding its evolution over the last century as well as large uncertainty about its fate at the end of this century. We depict here the progress since the IPCC SROCC report, offering an update of its chapter 6.7. We also show new results from a high-resolution ocean model and a CMIP6 model to investigate the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting, a key uncertainty for past and future AMOC changes. The ocean-only simulation at 1/24° resolution in the Arctic-North Atlantic Ocean performed over the period 2004–2016 indicates that the spread of the Greenland freshwater runoff toward the center of the Labrador Sea, where oceanic convection occurs, seems larger in this model than in a CMIP6 model. Potential explanations are related to the model spatial resolution and the representation of mesoscale processes, which more realistically transport the freshwater released around the shelves and, through eddies, provides strong lateral exchanges between the fine-scale boundary current and the convective basin in the Labrador Sea. The larger freshening of the Labrador Sea in the high-resolution model then strongly affects deep convection activity. In the simulation including GrIS melting, the AMOC weakens by about 2 Sv after only 13 years, far more strongly than what is found in the CMIP6 model. This difference raises serious concerns on the ability of CMIP6 models to correctly assess the potential impact of GrIS melting on the AMOC changes over the last few decades as well as on its future fate. To gain confidence in the GrIS freshwater impacts on climate simulations and therefore in AMOC projections, urgent progress should be made on the parameterization of mesoscale processes in ocean models.

Impact of resolution on the atmosphere–ocean coupling along the Gulf Stream in global high resolution models

We have investigated the horizontal resolution dependence of the ocean–atmosphere coupling along the Gulf Stream, of simulations made by six Global Climate Models according to the HighResMIP protocol, and compared it with reanalysis and remote sensing observations. Two ocean–atmosphere interaction mechanisms are explored in detail: The Vertical Mixing Mechanism (VMM) associated with the intensification of downward momentum transfer, and the Pressure Adjustment Mechanism (PAM) associated with secondary circulations driven by pressure gradients. Both VMM and PAM are found to be active even in the eddy-parameterized models. However, increasing ocean and/or atmosphere resolution leads to enhanced ocean–atmosphere coupling and improved agreement with reanalysis and observations. Our results indicate that while one part of the stronger air–sea coupling is attributable to the refinement of the oceanic component to eddy-permitting, optimal results are obtained only by further increase of the atmosphere resolution too. The use of the eddy-resolving model show weaker or same coupling strength over the eddy-permitting resolution. We conclude that at least eddy-permiting ocean resolution and comparable atmosphere resolution are required for a reliable ocean–atmosphere coupling along the Gulf Stream.

How well is Rossby wave activity represented in the PRIMAVERA coupled simulations?

Abstract. This work aims to assess the performance of state-of-the-art global climate models in representing the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave pattern in the Northern Hemisphere and over the European–Atlantic sector. A diagnostic based on finite-amplitude local wave activity is used as an objective metric to quantify the amplitude of Rossby waves in terms of Rossby wave activity. This diagnostic framework is applied to a set of coupled historical climate simulations at different horizontal resolutions, performed in the framework of the PRIMAVERA project and compared with observations (ERA5 reanalysis). At first, the spatio-temporal characteristics of Rossby wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere are examined in the multimodel mean of the whole PRIMAVERA set. When examining the spatial distribution of transient wave activity, only a minimal improvement is found in the high-resolution ensemble. On the other hand, when examining the temporal variability of wave activity, a higher resolution is beneficial in all models apart from one. In addition, when examining the Rossby wave activity time series, no evident trends are found in the historical simulations (at both standard and high resolutions) and in the observations. Finally, the spatial distribution of Rossby wave activity is investigated in more detail focusing on the European–Atlantic sector, examining the wave activity pattern associated with weather regimes for each model. Results show a marked inter-model variability in representing the correct spatial distribution of Rossby wave activity associated with each regime pattern, and an increased horizontal resolution improves the models' performance only for some of the models and for some of the regimes. A positive impact of an increased horizontal resolution is found only for the models in which both the atmospheric and oceanic resolution is changed, whereas in the models in which only the atmospheric resolution is increased, a worsening model performance is detected.

Twenty-first-century Southern Hemisphere impacts of ozone recovery and climate change from the stratosphere to the ocean

Abstract. Changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations and increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) alter the temperature structure of the atmosphere and drive changes in the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We systematically investigate the impacts of ozone recovery and increasing GHGs on the atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Southern Hemisphere during the twenty-first century using a unique coupled ocean–atmosphere climate model with interactive ozone chemistry and enhanced oceanic resolution. We use the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5 for GHGs under which the springtime Antarctic total column ozone returns to 1980s levels by 2048 in our model, warming the lower stratosphere and strengthening the stratospheric westerly winds. We perform a spatial analysis and show for the first time that the austral spring stratospheric response to GHGs exhibits a marked planetary wavenumber 1 (PW1) pattern, which reinforces the response to ozone recovery over the Western Hemisphere and weakens it over the Eastern Hemisphere. These changes, which imply an eastward phase shift in the PW1, largely cancel out in the zonal mean. The Southern Hemisphere residual circulation strengthens during most of the year due to the increase in GHGs and weakens in spring due to ozone recovery. However, we find that in November the GHGs also drive a weakening of the residual circulation, reinforcing the effect of ozone recovery, which represents another novel result. At the surface, the westerly winds weaken and shift equatorward due to ozone recovery, driving a weak decrease in the transport of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the Agulhas leakage and a cooling of the upper ocean, which is most pronounced in the latitudinal band 35–45∘ S. The increasing GHGs drive changes in the opposite direction that overwhelm the ozone effect. The total changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation are nevertheless weaker in the presence of ozone recovery than those induced by GHGs alone, highlighting the importance of the Montreal Protocol in mitigating some of the impacts of climate change. We additionally compare the combined effect of interactively calculated ozone recovery and increasing GHGs with their combined effect in an ensemble in which we prescribe the CMIP6 ozone field. This second ensemble simulates a weaker ozone effect in all the examined fields, consistent with its weaker increase in ozone. The magnitude of the difference between the simulated changes at the surface and in the oceanic circulation in the two ensembles is as large as the ozone effect itself. This shows the large uncertainty that is associated with the choice of the ozone field and how the ozone is treated.

Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models

Abstract. We examine the influence of increased resolution on four long-standing biases using five different climate models developed within the PRIMAVERA project. The biases are the warm eastern tropical oceans, the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the warm Southern Ocean, and the cold North Atlantic. Atmosphere resolution increases from ∼100–200 to ∼25–50 km, and ocean resolution increases from ∼1∘ (eddy-parametrized) to ∼0.25∘ (eddy-present). For one model, ocean resolution also reaches 1/12∘ (eddy-rich). The ensemble mean and individual fully coupled general circulation models and their atmosphere-only versions are compared with satellite observations and the ERA5 reanalysis over the period 1980–2014. The four studied biases appear in all the low-resolution coupled models to some extent, although the Southern Ocean warm bias is the least persistent across individual models. In the ensemble mean, increased resolution reduces the surface warm bias and the associated cloud cover and precipitation biases over the eastern tropical oceans, particularly over the tropical South Atlantic. Linked to this and to the improvement in the precipitation distribution over the western tropical Pacific, the double-ITCZ bias is also reduced with increased resolution. The Southern Ocean warm bias increases or remains unchanged at higher resolution, with small reductions in the regional cloud cover and net cloud radiative effect biases. The North Atlantic cold bias is also reduced at higher resolution, albeit at the expense of a new warm bias that emerges in the Labrador Sea related to excessive ocean deep mixing in the region, especially in the ORCA025 ocean model. Overall, the impact of increased resolution on the surface temperature biases is model-dependent in the coupled models. In the atmosphere-only models, increased resolution leads to very modest or no reduction in the studied biases. Thus, both the coupled and atmosphere-only models still show large biases in tropical precipitation and cloud cover, and in midlatitude zonal winds at higher resolutions, with little change in their global biases for temperature, precipitation, cloud cover, and net cloud radiative effect. Our analysis finds no clear reductions in the studied biases due to the increase in atmosphere resolution up to 25–50 km, in ocean resolution up to 0.25∘, or in both. Our study thus adds to evidence that further improved model physics, tuning, and even finer resolutions might be necessary.

Improved High Resolution Ocean Reanalyses Using a Simple Smoother Algorithm

AbstractWe present a simple smoother designed for smooth data adjustments in sequentially generated reanalysis products by utilizing knowledge of future assimilation increments. A decay time parameter is applied to the smoother increments to account for memory decay timescales in the ocean. The result is different from simply time smoothing the reanalysis itself as only the increments are smoothed so the reanalysis product can retain high frequency variability that is being internally generated by the model and the atmospheric forcing. The smoother is applied first to the Lorenz 1963 model and then to the daily Met Office GloSea5 Global ¼° ocean reanalysis during 2016. Results show significant improvement over the original reanalysis in the 3D temperature and salinity state and variability, as well as in the sea surface height (SSH) and ocean currents. Comparisons are made directly against temperature, salinity and SSH observations, as well as independent 15 m drifter velocities. The impact on the time variability of conservative quantities, particularly ocean heat and salt content, as well as kinetic energy and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), is also demonstrated.

A Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Projections in a High-resolution Global Climate Model and from Downscaling by Statistical and Statistical-deterministic Methods

AbstractIn this study, we investigate the response of tropical cyclones (TCs) to climate change by using the Princeton environment-dependent probabilistic tropical cyclone (PepC) model and a statistical-deterministic method to downscale TCs using environmental conditions obtained from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) High-resolution Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenario for the North Atlantic basin. The downscaled TCs for the historical climate (1986-2005) are compared with those in the mid- (2016-35) and late-twenty-first century (2081-2100). The downscaled TCs are also compared with TCs explicitly simulated in HiFLOR. We show that while significantly more storms are detected in HiFLOR towards the end of the twenty-first century, the statistical-deterministic model projects a moderate increase in TC frequency, and PepC projects almost no increase in TC frequency. The changes in storm frequency in all three datasets are not significant in the mid-twenty-first century. All three project that storms will become more intense and the fraction of major hurricanes and Category 5 storms will significantly increase in the future climates. However, HiFLOR projects the largest increase in intensity while PepC projects the least. The results indicate that HiFLOR’s TC projection is more sensitive to climate change effects and statistical models are less sensitive. Nevertheless, in all three datasets, storm intensification and frequency increase lead to relatively small changes in TC threat as measured by the return level of landfall intensity.

Intrinsic Oceanic Decadal Variability of Upper-Ocean Heat Content

AbstractAtmosphere and ocean are coupled via air–sea interactions. The atmospheric conditions fuel the ocean circulation and its variability, but the extent to which ocean processes can affect the atmosphere at decadal time scales remains unclear. In particular, such low-frequency variability is difficult to extract from the short observational record, meaning that climate models are the primary tools deployed to resolve this question. Here, we assess how the ocean’s intrinsic variability leads to patterns of upper-ocean heat content that vary at decadal time scales. These patterns have the potential to feed back on the atmosphere and thereby affect climate modes of variability, such as El Niño or the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. We use the output from a global ocean–sea ice circulation model at three different horizontal resolutions, each driven by the same atmospheric reanalysis. To disentangle the variability of the ocean’s direct response to atmospheric forcing from the variability due to intrinsic ocean dynamics, we compare model runs driven with interannually varying forcing (1958–2018) and model runs driven with repeat-year forcing. Models with coarse resolution that rely on eddy parameterizations show (i) significantly reduced variance of the upper-ocean heat content at decadal time scales and (ii) differences in the spatial patterns of low-frequency variability compared with higher-resolution models. Climate projections are typically done with general circulation models with coarse-resolution ocean components. Therefore, these biases affect our ability to predict decadal climate modes of variability and, in turn, hinder climate projections. Our results suggest that for improving climate projections, the community should move toward coupled climate models with higher oceanic resolution.

Ocean Salinity changes in the global ocean under global warming conditions Part 1: Mechanisms in a strong warming scenario

AbstractWe investigate mechanisms underlying salinity changes projected to occur under strong representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing conditions. The study is based on output of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Mixed Resolution (MPI-ESM-MR) run with an ocean resolution of 0.4°. In comparison to the present-day oceanic conditions, sea surface salinity (SSS) increases towards the end of the 21st century in the tropical and the subtropical Atlantic. In contrast, a basin-wide surface freshening can be observed in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The RCP8.5 scenario of the MPI-ESM-MR with a global surface warming of ~2.3°C marks a water cycle amplification of 19 %, which is equivalent to ~8%°C−1 and thus close to the water cycle amplification predicted according to the Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) relationship (~7%°C−1). Large scale global SSS changes are driven by adjustments of surface freshwater fluxes. On smaller spatial scales, it is predominantly advection related to circulation changes that affects near-surface SSS. With respect to subsurface salinity, it is changes in surface freshwater flux that drive their changes over the upper 500 m of the subtropical Pacific and Indian oceans by forcing changes in water mass formation (spice signal). In the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, in contrast, the dynamical response associated with wind stress, circulation changes and associated heaving of isopycnals is equally important in driving subsurface salinity changes over the upper 1000 m.

A novel re-compositing approach to create continuous and consistent cross-sensor/cross-production global NDVI datasets

ABSTRACT The longest Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series produced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) has ended in 2017. At some point in the near future, all AVHRR sensors will be retired. To maintain continuity and consistency of this global data set, it is imperative to extend NDVI from other sensors, especially the operational Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), which planned to maintain continuity at least through 2038. NDVI could be de-composited into two components: (1) the multi-year climatology and (2) the vegetation condition index (VCI). The former contains climate information and a majority of sensor noise, and the latter contains weather information and residual sensor noise. With the assumption that VCI from different sensors are similar, we re-composited the cross-sensor/cross-production NDVI with original VCI and the cross-sensor/cross-production climatology, and compared various cross-converted datasets with the three base NDVI datasets: two NDVI productions derived from AVHRR observation and another from VIIRS observation. As a result, the re-composited NDVI agrees well with the target base NDVI spatially and temporally, with an accuracy of 0.02 NDVI unit at a global scale. The comparison with several regression approaches distinguish the superiority of the new re-compositing approach.