Ocean Anomalies Research Articles

Atmospheric variability drives anomalies in the Bering Sea air-sea heat exchange

Abstract High-latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air-sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper ocean thermal variability, and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air-sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010-2022 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September-April, and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The air-mass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability, and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper ocean temperature variability through mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period.

Coati optimization algorithm based Deep Convolutional Forest method for prediction of atmospheric and oceanic parameters

Droughts and floods are examples of extreme weather events that can result from changes in ocean temperature. Ocean temperature is a key component of the global open sea system. Currently, real-time sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts are generated by numerical models based on physics principles and influenced by boundary and initial conditions. These models generally perform better over large areas than at specific locations. To address this and improve prediction accuracy, particularly in high-precision areas, the Coati Optimization Algorithm-based Deep Convolutional Forest (COA-DCF) method is proposed. This optimization approach is utilized to train the Deep Convolutional Forest (DCF) classifier, which then applies the prediction strategy. The COA-DCF method forecasts ocean surface temperature anomalies by considering key variables such as SST, Sea Surface Height (SSH), soil moisture, and wind speed, using historical data ranging from 1 to 10 days across six different locations. The proposed method achieves improved accuracy with low Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values, and a high Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) of 0.493, 0.487, and 0.4733, respectively, thereby enhancing the overall performance of the deep learning model.

Meridional Path of ENSO Impact on Following Early‐Summer North Pacific Climate

AbstractPrior research extensively investigates the delayed influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on subsequent summer climates, with persistent sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in remote tropical oceans serving as crucial pathways. This study unveils a previously overlooked midlatitude pathway. During the developing winter, El Niño events induce basin‐scale cold SSTAs in the central North Pacific, which can persist into the following summer. These anomalies significantly influence early‐summer atmospheric circulation by enhancing atmospheric baroclinicity and transient eddy activities. Primarily driven by transient eddy vorticity forcing, an equivalent barotropic geopotential low anomaly emerges over the North Pacific. Enhanced by the southwesterly winds of the atmospheric low, tropical moisture is transported farther northeastward in the early summer, resulting in increased rainfall in the Pacific Northwest region. By elucidating this meridional pathway, our study advances the understanding of ENSO's delayed impacts and associated dynamical processes, in which the midlatitude oceanic feedbacks are emphasized.

On the Relation between Thermohaline Anomalies and Water Mass Transformation in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

Abstract Decadal thermohaline anomalies carried northward by the North Atlantic Current are an important source of predictability in the North Atlantic region. Here, we investigate whether these thermohaline anomalies influence surface-forced water mass transformation (SFWMT) in the eastern subpolar gyre using the reanalyses EN4.2.2 for the ocean and the ERA5 for the atmosphere. In addition, we follow the propagation of thermohaline anomalies along two paths: in the subpolar North Atlantic and the Norwegian Sea. We use observation-based datasets (HadISST, EN4.2.2, and Ishii) between 1947 and 2021 and apply complex empirical orthogonal functions. Our results show that when a warm anomaly enters the eastern subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in light-density classes (27.0–27.2 kg m−3). In contrast, when a cold anomaly enters the eastern subpolar gyre, more SFWMT occurs in denser classes (27.4–27.5 kg m−3). Following the thermohaline anomalies in both paths, we find alternating warm–salty and cold–fresh subsurface anomalies, repeating throughout the 74-yr-long record with four warm–salty and cold–fresh periods after the 1950s. The cold–fresh anomaly periods happen simultaneously with the Great Salinity Anomaly events. Moreover, the propagation of thermohaline anomalies is faster in the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) than in the Norwegian Sea, especially for temperature anomalies. These findings might have implications for our understanding of the decadal variability of the lower limb of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and predictability in the North Atlantic region. Significance Statement Anomalously warm–salty or cold–fresh water, carried by the North Atlantic Current toward the Arctic, is a source of climate predictability. In this study, we investigate 1) how these ocean anomalies influence the transformation of water masses in the eastern subpolar gyre and 2) their subsequent propagation poleward and northwestward. The key findings reveal that anomalously warm waters entering the eastern subpolar gyre lead to increased transformation in lighter water masses, while cold anomalies affect denser water masses. These anomalies propagate more than 2 times faster toward the Greenland coast (northwestward) than toward the Arctic (poleward). Our findings contribute to enhancing the understanding of decadal predictability in the northern North Atlantic, including its influence on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

What Controls the Interdecadal Enhancement in Interannual Variability of Summertime Intraseasonal Precipitation Over South China?

AbstractThis study focuses on the interannual variability of summertime intraseasonal precipitation intensity (SIPI) over South China (SC) in the 30–90‐day range. The results demonstrate a significant increase in the interannual variability of SIPI over SC around the mid‐1990s. By comparing atmospheric and oceanic anomalies between two periods, P1 (1984–1993) and P2 (1994–2003), we identify that both the Silk Road pattern (SRP) and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) play a role in influencing this interdecadal increase in SIPI interannual variability. These system anomalies are modulated by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the North Atlantic (NA) and equatorial East Pacific (EP). During years with positive precipitation anomalies in P2, warming EP SSTA induces anomalous Walker cell and local Hadley cell, weakening the WPSH and enhancing convective activity, and increasing moisture transport over SC. The warming NA SSTA near 45°N triggers a more southerly propagation of SRP, thereby providing additional disturbance energy that enhances summer precipitation over SC. Conversely, during years with negative precipitation anomalies in P2, these processes occur in reverse. The enhanced interannual variability of local convective activity from P1 to P2 leads to a corresponding increase in the interannual variability of the WPSH, which, coupled with an amplified interannual variability of SRP, results in heightened interannual variability of SIPI. Additionally, the composite analysis of 30–90‐day ISO events further substantiates the underlying mechanisms driving the interdecadal amplification of SIPI interannual variability. Diagnostic results reveal that the 30–90‐day horizontal wind induces heightened convergence of background moisture over SC.

The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions

AbstractWe investigate the role of the subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) for downstream predictability, using two decadal climate prediction systems. We use the subpolar extreme cold and fresh anomaly event developing in winter 2013/2014 as initial conditions and evaluate ensemble predictions of the two systems in the following decade. In addition, we perform ensemble pacemaker experiments where the models are forced toward observed ocean temperature and salinity anomalies in the SPNA from November 2014 through December 2019. The pacemaker experiments show improved skill along the Atlantic Water pathway, compared with the standard decadal predictions, and we therefore conclude that the correct description of the ocean in the SPNA is the key. The enhanced skill is most prominent in subsurface salinity in the form of propagating anomalies.

Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef

AbstractLocal meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub‐seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies.

Remote effect of tropical south Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on April–June accumulated cyclone energy over the western North Pacific

Global processes and their teleconnections, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been shown to be a large driver of interannual changes in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclones (TCs), with higher ACE during El Niño and lower ACE during La Niña. However, it remains uncertain whether interannual changes in WNP TC ACE are modulated by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in other oceans. This study finds a significant negative correlation between WNP TC ACE during the early season (April–June) and simultaneous SSTAs over the tropical south Atlantic (TSA) in 1970–2021. On average, in warm TSA years, basinwide April–June ACE is significantly lower, with significant ACE decreases mainly occurring over the region spanning 5°–30°N, 115°–150°E. This is a result of reduced TC frequency, intensity and duration, due to a remote modulation of WNP environmental conditions by TSA SSTAs. In warm TSA years, there are significant decreases in 700–500-hPa relative humidity, 850-hPa relative vorticity and 200-hPa divergence and significant increases in 850–200-hPa vertical wind shear over the portion of the WNP with significant ACE reductions. These environmental changes can be linked to an anomalous Walker circulation induced by TSA SSTAs.

Pushed waves, trailing edges, and extreme events: Eco-evolutionary dynamics of a geographic range shift in the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea.

As climatic variation re-shapes global biodiversity, understanding eco-evolutionary feedbacks during species range shifts is of increasing importance. Theory on range expansions distinguishes between two different forms: "pulled" and "pushed" waves. Pulled waves occur when the source of the expansion comes from low-density peripheral populations, while pushed waves occur when recruitment to the expanding edge is supplied by high-density populations closer to the species' core. How extreme events shape pushed/pulled wave expansion events, as well as trailing-edge declines/contractions, remains largely unexplored. We examined eco-evolutionary responses of a marine invertebrate (the owl limpet, Lottia gigantea) that increased in abundance during the 2014-2016 marine heatwaves near the poleward edge of its geographic range in the northeastern Pacific. We used whole-genome sequencing from 19 populations across >11 degrees of latitude to characterize genomic variation, gene flow, and demographic histories across the species' range. We estimated present-day dispersal potential and past climatic stability to identify how contemporary and historical seascape features shape genomic characteristics. Consistent with expectations of a pushed wave, we found little genomic differentiation between core and leading-edge populations, and higher genomic diversity at range edges. A large and well-mixed population in the northern edge of the species' range is likely a result of ocean current anomalies increasing larval settlement and high-dispersal potential across biogeographic boundaries. Trailing-edge populations have higher differentiation from core populations, possibly driven by local selection and limited gene flow, as well as high genomic diversity likely as a result of climatic stability during the Last Glacial Maximum. Our findings suggest that extreme events can drive poleward range expansions that carry the adaptive potential of core populations, while also cautioning that trailing-edge extirpations may threaten unique evolutionary variation. This work highlights the importance of understanding how both trailing and leading edges respond to global change and extreme events.

The joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation on tropical Indian Ocean heat flux during boreal winter

In this study, the joint effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) on winter net surface heat flux (Qnet) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) are investigated for the 1979/1980–2017/2018 period. The results show that, in multisource datasets, the Qnet pattern for El Niño plus positive AO cases is the most robust. The major feature of Qnet is dominated by a significant dipole pattern, with oceanic heat gain anomalies appearing over the southeastern TIO and oceanic heat loss near the western TIO. Analysis of the flux components shows that the Qnet anomalies are mainly contributed by changes in latent heat flux and shortwave radiation (QLHF and QSWR), which are tightly associated with the regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions. In association with positive AO, northerly wind anomalies on the eastern flanks of a low-level anomalous anticyclone in the Arabian Sea enhance the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the western TIO. Meanwhile, the El Niño-related SST warming occurs in the western TIO. Both enhanced ITCZ and anomalous SST warming favour in situ increased low and middle cloud cover and a reduced QSWR. Furthermore, under El Niño's effect, a low-level anomalous anticyclone located in the southeastern TIO leads to a positive QLHF through decreased near-surface wind speed and increased near-surface air humidity. As a result, a dipole Qnet pattern tends to be observed for the combination of El Niño and positive AO.

Impacts of different El Niño events in the decaying summer on the oceanic source of summer rainfall for eastern China: A perspective from stable isotope

ABSTRACT Extreme precipitation in eastern China (EC) is closely related to the diversity of the decaying phases of El Niño (warm-pool El Niño, i.e., WP El Niño and cold-tongue El Niño, i.e., CT El Niño), but little attention is paid to how the El Niño event variability influences precipitation sources for EC from an isotopic perspective. Stable isotopes are ideal physical tracers that can distinguish different sources of precipitation and quantify their relative contributions to precipitation. Accordingly, this study investigates spatiotemporal variations of water vapor flux and oceanic fraction to precipitation during different ENSO events by an isotopic mixing model. The results show that spatiotemporal patterns of moisture divergence for the decaying phase of WP El Niño are different from that of CT El Niño. The oceanic fraction anomalies present similar spatiotemporal trends with advection fraction anomalies. The spatiotemporal variations of precipitation source anomalies for different El Niño events are closely related to atmospheric circulations, i.e., the intensity and location of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). These findings provide isotopic insights into the precipitation sources by El Niño events in EC. Future studies may further focus on the mechanisms producing extreme precipitation between the two kinds of El Niño.

Impacts of the Mesoscale Ocean‐Atmosphere Coupling on the Peru‐Chile Ocean Dynamics: Impact of the Thermal Feedback

AbstractConsequences of the mesoscale Thermal FeedBack (TFB) on the ocean dynamics are studied in the South‐East Pacific (SEP) using a high‐resolution regional ocean–atmosphere coupled model. Three simulations are compared: the first one is a fully coupled simulation. In the second one, the TFB has been removed with an online smoothing of the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions used by the atmosphere. In the third one, to disentangle the impact of the nearshore and the offshore TFB, the smoothing is only applied in the offshore region. In the SEP, the coastal upwelling cold tongue constitutes a permanent mesoscale SST pattern. We show that this SST pattern alters the coastal wind structure, reducing the coastal upwelling‐favorable wind intensity. So, the nearshore TFB reduces the coastal surface current and the vertical velocities. As a result, the Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) generation by baroclinic conversion is also weakened. In the offshore region, on the contrary, the oceanic mean state is not affected by the TFB and only the EKE is weakened. Composites above the coherent eddies show that the heat flux response to the mesoscale SST anomalies is responsible for the mesoscale activity weakening over the whole studied area. Although the wind response to the SST anomalies has a very weak mean impact on the EKE generation through wind work, we show that it strongly modifies the mean oceanic vertical velocity anomalies over the coherent eddies.

Revealing Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Sea Surface Temperature in the South China Sea Based on Spatial–Temporal Co-Clustering

To discover the spatial–temporal patterns of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS), this paper proposes a spatial–temporal co-clustering algorithm optimized by information divergence. This method allows for the clustering of SST data simultaneously across temporal and spatial dimensions and is adaptable to large volumes of data and anomalous data situations. First, the SST data are initially clustered using the co-clustering algorithm. Second, we use information divergence as the loss function to refine the clustering results iteratively. During the iterative optimization of spatial clustering results, we treat the temporal dimension as a constraint; similarly, during the iterative optimization of temporal clustering, we treat the spatial dimension as a constraint. This is to ensure better robustness of the algorithm. Finally, this paper conducts experiments in the SCS to verify our algorithm. According to the analysis of the experimental results, we have drawn the following conclusions. First, the use of the spatial–temporal co-clustering algorithm reveals that the SST in the SCS exhibits strong seasonal patterns in the temporal clustering results. The spatial distribution of SST varies significantly in different seasons. There is a slight difference in SST between the northern and southern regions of the SCS in winter, but the largest difference is in summer. Second, during ocean anomalies, our proposed algorithm can identify the corresponding abnormal patterns. When ENSO occurs, the seasonal distribution pattern of SST in the SCS is destroyed and replaced by an abnormal temporal pattern. The results indicate that during ENSO events, the SST in specific months in the SCS exhibits a correlation with the SST observed 4–5 months afterward.

Winter “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” pattern and its statistical linkages to oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations

A striking recurrent feature of winter climate variability is the “warm Arctic-cold Eurasia” (WACE) pattern of opposite sign anomalies of surface air temperature (SAT) in the Barents Sea region and midlatitude Eurasia. Its origins and mechanisms are hotly debated, and its predictability remains unknown. This study investigates statistical relationships of the winter WACE dipole with concurrent anomalies of atmospheric circulation and oceanic precursors during the era of satellite observations. The results reveal a high potential for seasonal predictability of not only the WACE dipole but also several related indicators of winter climate variability, including the Arctic and Eurasian SAT anomalies. During subperiods of extreme covariability between the Arctic and Eurasian SATs around the early 1980s and late 2000s, most of the WACE variability is explained by ocean temperature and surface turbulent heat flux anomalies in the Barents Sea region during the preceding months. Anomalies in summer Atlantic water temperature (AWT) and autumnal sea surface temperature (SST) in this region explain about 70–80% of the variance of the following winter WACE variability during all events of strong Arctic-Eurasian SAT covariability. Analysis of SST variability in the Arctic-North Atlantic region suggests that the winter WACE link to the summer AWT anomalies reflects an atmospheric response to a large-scale surface reemergence of ocean temperature anomalies. However, this linkage had been robust only until the early 2000s. Since then, the winter WACE variability has been strongly related to autumnal SST anomalies in the Barents Sea region and the North Pacific.

Monitoring climate change in the marine Arctic

Changes in the temperature regime of the marine Arctic and the influencing factors are considered based on the current knowledge of the causes of climate change and the use of new data sources. In the Arctic, the warming is developing due to such factors as the increase in the transfer of heat and moisture from the low latitudes. This, in turn, drives the feedbacks in the Arctic climate system, increasing the flow of long-wave radiation to the surface due to rising atmospheric water vapor concentrations and slowing down the growth of the sea ice thickness in winter. The increase in the atmospheric heat transfer to the Arctic is associated with changes in atmospheric circulation, in particular, under the influence of ocean surface temperature anomalies, especially in the low latitudes since the bulk of the heat influx from the from solar radiation and anthropogenic forcing is accumulated here. Analyzing the causes of warming in the Arctic in the 1930s and 40s led researchers to the conclusion that the water influx from the North Atlantic is a factor to consider. Therefore, the influx of warm and salty water is also an important influence on the formation of the climate of the marine Arctic today, which should be taken into account when monitoring the temperature and ice regime of this area. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of climate variability in the marine Arctic and its causes, the article examines representative indicators of climate change in the temperature and ice regime of the marine Arctic and the factors influencing them in the present period.

Middle to late Holocene hydroclimate variability revealed by multi-proxy stalagmite records from Jinfo Cave, central-west China

The pattern and cause of middle-to late-Holocene hydroclimatic variability in central-west China remain unclear. We present a new pair of stalagmite isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) records and trace element ratio (Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Sr/Ca) records from Jinfo Cave, central-west China. We established a uranium-series chronology that shows that the stalagmite grew between 5.6 and 0.6 kyr BP. The similarities between our δ18O stalagmite record and other published records suggest that δ18O generally reflects overall monsoon intensity or rained-out effect between the cave site and moisture source, but not necessarily regional rainfall amount. Corresponding changes in Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, Sr/Ca, and δ13C are mostly dependent on local factors, such as the nature of the ecosystem above the cave, water-rock interactions, and the prior calcite precipitation effect. As the δ13C records bear a remarkable resemblance to Mg/Ca, Ba/Ca, and Sr/Ca records, we extracted the first principal component (PC1) of the four records and identified the PC1 as a regional hydroclimate proxy. The bandpass filter and cross wavelet transformation results show that the ∼500 years periodicity of PC1 exhibits in-phase oscillations with solar activity and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) throughout the middle to late Holocene, suggesting that changes in solar activity influence centennial hydroclimate variation and are amplified by ENSO. Another prominent feature seen in PC1 is a progressive positive shift from 3.0 kyr BP, which indicates that central-west China moved toward a drier climate over this period. We attribute this climate transition to a strengthening El Niño event and its impact on oceanic and atmospheric anomalies.

Numerical Study on the Effect of Warm Ocean Anomalies in the South China Sea on the Heavy Rainfall Event on Hainan Island

The previous work has found that the development of an extended TD, which resulted in an abnormally prolonged and heavy rainfall event on Hainan Island from 1 October to 9 October in 2010, was significantly influenced by warm oceanic anomalies from surface to subsurface layer in the SCS. Numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF) were conducted to understand the mechanisms of TD development during this event. A control experiment with an observed warm SST pattern simulated a reasonably extended TD, while a sensitivity experiment using the climatological SST distribution reproduced only a weak and short-lived TD, thus highlighting the importance of air-sea interactions and persistent warm upper-ocean anomalies for the genesis and intensification of the TD.

Dynamics of the Barrier Layer Dipole in the Equatorial Indian Ocean

AbstractThe barrier layer (BL) significantly impacts the upper ocean circulation and thermodynamic structure by inhibiting the heat and momentum exchange between the mixed layer (ML) and the subsurface layer. There exist sea surface temperature and salinity dipole modes in the tropical Indian Ocean, however, a BL dipole mode has not yet been identified. Using the latest observations and ocean reanalysis, here we show a robust BL dipole mode in the central and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, which is highly correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Composite analysis shows that the BL thickness anomalies peak in autumn and are much larger during positive IOD events than during negative IOD events. We show that a positive BL dipole phase is characterized by positive BL thickness anomalies in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and negative BL thickness anomalies in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and vice versa for a negative BL dipole phase. During positive IOD events, negative surface salinity anomalies slightly affect the ML depth along the equatorial Indian Ocean. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies deepen the isothermal layer (IL) in the central equatorial Indian Ocean and strong negative subsurface temperature anomalies significantly lift the IL in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, controlling the BL thickness anomalies and forming a positive BL dipole pattern. This operates in an opposite direction during negative IOD events. Our study shows a close relationship between the BL dipole and the IOD and has far‐reaching implications for better understanding and predicting the IOD events.

Processes Contributing to Bering Sea Temperature Variability in the Late Twentieth and Early Twenty-First Century

Abstract Over recent decades, the Bering Sea has experienced oceanic and atmospheric climate extremes, including record warm ocean temperature anomalies and marine heatwaves (MHWs), and increasingly variable air–sea heat fluxes. In this work, we assess the relative roles of surface forcing and ocean dynamical processes on mixed layer temperature (MLT) tendency by computing a closed mixed layer heat budget using the NASA/JPL Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) Ocean State and Sea Ice Estimate. We show that surface forcing drives the majority of the MLT tendency in the spring and fall and remains dominant to a lesser degree in winter and summer. Surface forcing anomalies are the dominant driver of monthly mixed layer temperature tendency anomalies (MLTa), driving an average of 72% of the MLTa over the ECCO record length (1992–2017). The surface turbulent heat flux (latent plus sensible) accounts for most of the surface heat flux anomalies in January–April and September–December, and the net radiative flux (net longwave plus net shortwave) dominates the surface heat flux anomalies in May–August. Our results suggest that atmospheric variability plays a significant role in Bering Sea ocean temperature anomalies through most of the year. Furthermore, they indicate a recent increase in ocean warming surface forcing anomalies, beginning in 2010. Significance Statement In recent years, the Bering Sea has experienced extremes in ocean temperature, which have had adverse impacts on ocean ecology and marine fisheries and have contributed to increasingly variable sea ice extent. Our results identify anomalous heating by air–sea heat flux anomalies as the process responsible for most of the observed ocean temperature anomalies over the period 1992–2017. We additionally show that there has been an increase in atmosphere-driven ocean warming since 2010. Our work highlights the importance of investigating how ocean–atmosphere interactions might change under future climate change and how this will impact the Bering Sea.

Non-ENSO Precursors for Northwestern Pacific Summer Monsoon Variability with Implications for Predictability

Abstract The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Asian monsoon region can persist through the post-ENSO summer, after the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific have dissipated. The long persistence of coherent post-ENSO anomalies is caused by a positive feedback due to interbasin ocean–atmospheric coupling, known as the Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effect, although the feedback mechanism itself does not necessarily rely on the antecedence of ENSO events, suggesting the potential for substantial internal variability independent of ENSO. To investigate the respective role of ENSO forcing and non-ENSO internal variability, we conduct ensemble “forecast” experiments with a full-physics, globally coupled atmosphere–ocean model initialized from a multidecadal tropical Pacific pacemaker simulation. The leading mode of internal variability as represented by the forecast-ensemble spread resembles the post-ENSO IPOC, despite the absence of antecedent ENSO forcing by design. The persistent atmospheric and oceanic anomalies in the leading mode highlight the positive feedback mechanism in the internal variability. The large sample size afforded by the ensemble spread allows us to identify robust non-ENSO precursors of summer IPOC variability, including a cool SST patch over the tropical northwestern Pacific, a warming patch in the tropical North Atlantic, and downwelling oceanic Rossby waves in the tropical Indian Ocean south of the equator. The pathways by which the precursors develop into the summer IPOC mode and the implications for improved predictability are discussed.