Heat Content Research Articles

Recent changes in atmospheric input and primary productivity in the north Indian Ocean

Global oceanic regions are rapidly changing in terms of their temperature, oxygen, heat content, salinity and biogeochemistry. Since the biogeochemistry of the oceans is important and pivotal for global food production, and a major part of the world population relies on marine resources for their daily life and livelihood, it is imperative to monitor and find the spatio-temporal changes in the primary productivity of oceans. Here, we estimate the changes in Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Net Primary Productivity (NPP) in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) basins of Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea for the period 1998–2019. We find a substantial reduction of NPP in NIO since 1998 (−0.048 mg m−3 day−1 yr−1) and the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) (+0.02 °C yr−1) is the primary driver of this change. Furthermore, there is a significant (10–20%) change in the air mass or dust transport to NIO from the period Decade 1 (1998–2008) to Decade 2 (2009–2019). This change in air mass trajectories has also altered NPP in both basins through the changes in nutrient input and associated biogeochemistry. Henceforth, this study cautions the changes in primary productivity of NIO, and suggests regular assessments and continuous monitoring of the physical and biological processes from a perspective of food security and ecosystem dynamics.

Seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves

Marine heatwaves damage marine ecosystems and services, with effects identified mostly below the ocean surface. To create a truly user-relevant detection system, it is necessary to provide subsurface forecasts. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal forecasting of subsurface marine heatwaves by using upper ocean heat content. We validate surface and subsurface events forecast by an operational dynamical seasonal forecasting system against satellite observations and an ocean reanalysis, respectively. We show that indicators of summer events (number of days, strongest intensity, and number of events) are predicted with greater skill than surface equivalents across much of the global ocean. We identify regions which do not display significant surface skill but could still benefit from accurate subsurface early warning tools (e.g., the mid-latitudes). The dynamical system used here outperforms a persistence model and is not widely influenced by warming trends, demonstrating the ability of the system to capture relevant subseasonal variability.

Observations in the Spanish Mediterranean Waters: A Review and Update of Results of 30-Year Monitoring

The Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO, Spanish Institute of Oceanography) has maintained different monitoring programs in the Spanish Mediterranean waters (Western Mediterranean) since 1992. All these monitoring programs were unified in 2007 under the current program RADMED (series temporales de datos oceanográficos en el Mediterráneo), which is devoted to the in situ multidisciplinary sampling of the water column of coastal and open-sea waters by means of periodic oceanographic campaigns. These campaigns, together with a network of tide-gauges, are part of the IEO Observing system (IEOOS). In some cases, the temperature and salinity time series collected in the frame of these monitoring programs are now more than 30 years long, whereas sea level time series date to the beginning of the 1940s. This information has been complemented with international databases and has been analyzed in numerous works by the Grupo mediterráneo de Cambio Climático (GCC; Mediterranean Climate Change Group) for more than 20 years. These works have been devoted to the detection and quantification of the changes that climate change is producing on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Spanish Mediterranean waters. In this work, we review the results obtained by the GCC since 2005 in relation to the changes in the physical properties of the sea: water column temperature, salinity, and density, heat content, mixed layer depth, and sea level. Time series and results are updated from the last works, and the reliability of the existing time series for the detection of climatologies and long-term trends are analyzed. Furthermore, the different sources of uncertainty in the estimation of linear trends are considered in the present work. Besides this review and update of the results obtained from the data collected in the frame of the IEOOS, we conduct a review of the existing monitoring capabilities from other institutions in the Spanish Mediterranean waters and a review of results dealing with climate change in the Spanish Mediterranean obtained by such institutions. In particular, we include a review of the results obtained by SOCIB (Servicio de Observación y Predicción Costero de las Islas Baleares; Balearic Islands costal observing and forecasting system) in relation to the study of marine heat waves and the warming of the sea surface, and the results corresponding to the intense warming of the Catalan continental shelf at L’Estartit oceanographic station. All these results evidence that the surface Spanish Mediterranean waters are warming up at a rate higher than that affecting the global ocean (>2 °C/100 years). This warming and a salinity increase are also observed along the whole water column. Marine heat waves are increasing their intensity, frequency, and duration since 1982, and coastal sea level is increasing at a rate of 2.5 mm/yr. The salinity increase seems to have compensated for the warming, at least at surface and intermediate waters where no significant trends have been detected for the density. This could also be the reason for the lack of significant trends in the evolution of the mixed layer depth. All these results highlight the importance of monitoring the water column and the necessity of maintaining in situ sampling programs, which are essential for the study of changes that are occurring throughout the Spanish Mediterranean waters.

Global climatological data of ocean thermohaline parameters derived from WOA18

This is a global ocean climatological dataset of 17 thermohaline parameters such as isothermal layer (ITL) depth (hT), mixed layer (ML) depth (hD), thermocline gradient (GT), pycnocline gradient (GD) determined from temperature (T) and salinity (S) profiles of the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) world ocean atlas 2018 (WOA18) using the double gradient method along with the identity-index (i-index) showing the quality of the determination. With the identified (hT, hD) and (GT, GD), other parameters such as ITL heat content (HITL), mixed layer fresh-water content (FML), maximum thermocline gradient (GTmax), thermocline depth (hth), temperature at thermocline depth (Tth), maximum density gradient GDmax), pycnocline depth (hpyc), density at pycnocline depth (ρpyc), and (hT − hD) (barrier layer if positive or compensated layer if negative). The dataset is located at the NOAA/NCEI website (https://doi.org/10.25921/j3v2-jy50). It provides useful background information for ocean mixed layer dynamics, air-sea interaction, climatological studies. This paper is the only document for the dataset.

STUDY OF POTENTIAL INSTALLATION OF OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION (OTEC) IN THE NORTH WATERS OF LEMBATA, NTT

Ocean thermal energy conversion is an attempt to convert potential energy in the variances heat content of seawater into other energy by utilizing the temperature change between the sea surface and deep sea at least 20°C. The Lembata waters is near to the equator, sea surface temperature tends to be warm and stable. This research was conducted to estimate the potential energy generated from a closed cycle OTEC system in North Lembata Waters. This study used temperature data from Global Ocean Physics Reanalysis from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) for 9 years (2012-2020) in 6 stations. Validation was performed using the primary CTD Lembata OTEC Team of the Marine Geological Institute (MGI). Temperature data validation results on the MSE (Mean Square Error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) methods are considered to represent field temperature conditions. The variability value shows the station point in the North Lembata Waters has a temperature with slight differences. The vertical temperature change (ΔT) shows between 20.98°C to 23.44°C. Potential electric power resulting from the OTEC system using the technical estimation formula. The average net power generated from those temperature gradients ranges from 5.65 MW-7.56 MW, respectively. The Lembata waters have temperature conditions suitable for OTEC installations. Station C-4 has a power potential of 6.84 MW with a depth of 763 m and the distance of 1.86 km from the coastline. Station C-4 in the Omesuri sub-district is the best point for OTEC installation in North Lembata Waters.

First Quantification of the Permafrost Heat Sink in the Earth's Climate System

AbstractDue to an imbalance between incoming and outgoing radiation at the top of the atmosphere, excess heat has accumulated in Earth's climate system in recent decades, driving global warming and climatic changes. To date, it has not been quantified how much of this excess heat is used to melt ground ice in permafrost. Here, we diagnose changes in sensible and latent ground heat contents in the northern terrestrial permafrost region from ensemble‐simulations of a tailored land surface model. We find that between 1980 and 2018, about ZJ of heat, of which ZJ (44%) were used to melt ground ice, were absorbed by permafrost. Our estimate, which does not yet account for the potentially increased heat uptake due to thermokarst processes in ice‐rich terrain, suggests that permafrost is a persistent heat sink comparable in magnitude to other components of the cryosphere and must be explicitly considered when assessing Earth's energy imbalance.

Interannual variations of heat budget in the lower layer of the eastern Ross Sea shelf and the forcing mechanisms in the Southern Ocean State Estimate

AbstractThe temporal variation of heat budget in the lower layer of the eastern Ross Sea shelf (ERSS) is crucial for understanding the stability of ice shelves in the Ross Sea. In this study, a 6‐year (2005–2010) simulation from the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) is employed to analyse the interannual variations of heat budget in the lower layer of the ERSS and the controlling mechanisms. The results reveal that the annual change in the heat content of the study region is dominated by the horizontal heat advection term, and only in 2015 the vertical advection and diffusion terms also play an important role. The horizontal advection term is affected by the intrusion of warm circumpolar deep water (CDW) onto the shelf across the northern boundary of the ERSS, the transport of cold dense shelf water (DSW) from the western Ross Sea shelf, and the transport of CDW across the western boundary of the ERSS. The contributions of these physical processes to the change in annual heat content vary between years. The interannual variation of the CDW intrusion is associated with the strength of eddy activity over the slope, and the interannual variation of heat transports associated with DSW is affected by both the extent of DSW on the western shelf and the coastal circulations that affect the eastward spread of DSW.

Zonal Distribution of Circumpolar Deep Water Transformation Rates and Its Relation to Heat Content on Antarctic Shelves

AbstractWe analyze 15‐year of observational data and a 5‐year Southern Ocean model simulation to quantify the transformation rates of Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) and the associated heat loss to the surface. This study finds that over the continental shelves of East Antarctica and the Weddell and Ross Seas, surface buoyancy fluxes transform ∼4.4 Sv of surface waters into CDW, providing a path for CDW to lose heat to the surface. In addition, ∼6.6 Sv of CDW are mixed with surface waters in the Weddell and Ross subpolar gyres. In contrast, enhanced stratification inhibits the outcropping of CDW isopycnals, reducing their transformation rates by a factor of ∼8 over the continental shelf and by a factor of ∼3 over the deeper ocean in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas. The CDW retains its offshore warm properties as it intrudes over the continental shelves, resulting in elevated bottom temperatures there. This analysis demonstrates the importance of processes in subpolar gyres to erode CDW and to facilitate further transformation on the continental shelves, significantly reducing the heat able to access ice shelf fronts. This sheltering effect is strongest in the western Weddell Sea and tends to diminish toward the east, which helps explain the large zonal differences in continental‐shelf bottom temperatures and the melt rates of Antarctic ice shelves.

Heat Budget Analysis for the Extended Development of the 2014–2015 Warming Event

In order to figure out the associated underlying dynamical processes of the 2014–2015 warming event, we used the ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean) reanalysis from 1993 to 2016 and two combined scatterometers, QuikSCAT and ASCAT, to analysis hydrodynamic condition and ocean heat budget balance process in the equatorial tropical pacific. The spatiotemporal characteristics of that warming event were revealed by comparing the results with a composite El Niño. The results showed that the significant differences between the 2014 and 2015 warming periods were the magnitudes and positions of the equatorial easterly wind anomalies during the summer months. The abruptly easterly wind anomalies of 2014 that spread across the entire equatorial Pacific triggered the upwelling of the equatorial Kelvin waves and pushed the eastern edge of the warm pool back westward. These combined effects caused abrupt decreases in the sea surface temperatures (SST) and upper ocean heat content (OHC) and damped the 2014 warming process into an El Niño. In addition, the ocean budget of the upper 300 m of the El Niño 3.4 region showed that different dynamical processes were responsible for different warming phases. For example, at the beginning of 2014 and 2015, the U advection and subsurface processes played dominant roles in the positive ocean heat content tendency. During the easterly wind anomalies period of 2014, the U advection process mainly caused a negative tendency and halted the development of the warming phase. In regard to the easterly wind anomalies of 2015, the U advection and subsurface processes were weaker negatively when compared with that in 2014. However, the V advection processes were consistently positive, taking a leading role in the positive trends observed in the middle of 2015.

Chemical pretreatment of corncob for the selective dissolution of hemicellulose and lignin: influence of pretreatment on the chemical, morphological and thermal features

The aim of this work was to remove the hemicellulose and lignin fraction from corncob using chemical pretreatments, and to stablish the effect of that on the composition, microstructure, and thermal properties of corncob. The biomass was pretreated with H2SO4 and NaOH solution to dissolve hemicellulose and lignin portion. Likewise, the biomass pretreated was characterized by scanning electron microscope, IR spectroscopy and TGA methods. It was found that the acid pretreatment disrupt the hemicellulose structure by hydrolysis of glycoside bonds. Moreover, the corncob morphology becomes flaky after acid pretreatment due to dissolution of hemicellulose. The lignin is removed during alkaline pretreatment by solvation of aryl groups. In addition, the crystalline morphology of cellulose fibers was disrupted, increasing the surface area. The pretreatment of corncob with 1.0% H2SO4 and 0.1 M NaOH solubilized ∼42.6% and ∼20.9% of the biomass, respectively. The soluble products were analyzed by FTIR, Fehling test, and calorimetric analysis, to stablish their composition and heat content. The hydrolysis of hemicellulose leads to the release of the monomeric sugars and soluble oligomers. Moreover, the lignin of corncob releases more energy per unit of mass, making it an energy-denser component of corncob.

A new approach for seasonal prediction using the coupled model CFSv2 with special emphasis on Indian Summer Monsoon

AbstractPredicting Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is a challenging task due to its complexity and nonlinear interactions. Any improvement in the seasonal prediction skill of models would highly benefit a large population and the economy. In this context, three sets of hindcast experiments are carried out for 9 months each, for the period 1993–2019, using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐Climate Forecast System version 2 (NCEP‐CFSv2). The experiments differ from each other in the way they are initialized: one is initialized in February (FebIC), and the second in May (MayIC), whereas in the third one (Exp), ocean is initialized in February and allowed to evolve but the atmosphere reinitialized every month up to May. So, hindcasts of Exp are from the pre‐evolved ocean with realistic atmospheric initial conditions of May. The representation of mean tropical Indo‐Pacific Sea surface temperature (SST), Walker circulation, mean monsoon circulation and moisture transport to Indian landmass are better represented in Exp. The ISM rainfall prediction (interannual) skill improved in Exp as compared to FebIC and MayIC over central India, Indian land mass and extended monsoon region. The initialization strategy adopted in Exp reduces the model initial shocks especially in the upper ocean heat content and SST over the Indo‐Pacific region, thereby offering a cost‐effective alternative approach for reduction of the initial shock. The well‐known cold tongue SST bias over the equatorial Pacific in MayIC is reduced significantly in Exp with improved monsoon teleconnections and the overdependence of ISM rainfall on El Niño Southern Oscillation in MayIC is also reduced in Exp.

Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Heat Uptake and Its Effect on Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) can pump heat downward into the ocean through inducing intense vertical mixing. Many efforts have been made to estimate the TC-induced ocean heat uptake (OHU), but spatiotemporal variability of TC-induced OHU remains unclear. This study estimates the TC-induced OHU, which takes into account the heat loss at the air–sea interface during TC passage compared to previous studies and investigates the spatiotemporal variability of TC-induced OHU and its potential impacts on ocean heat content (OHC) during the period 1985–2018. It is found that the spatial distribution of OHU is inhomogeneous, with the largest OHU occurring in the northwest Pacific, and category 3–5 TCs contribute approximately 51% of the total global OHU per year. The annually accumulated TC-induced OHUs in the regional basins exhibit pronounced interannual variability, which is closely related to the TC power dissipation index (PDI). By decomposing PDI into TC intensity, frequency, and duration, we find that the TC characteristics influencing OHU variability vary by basin. Correlation analyses suggest that the interannual variations of OHUs are linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, the OHU might have the potential to influence OHC variability, especially in the equatorial eastern Pacific where there are significant positive correlations between the OHU and OHC with lags of 2–6 months. This has an important implication that TC-induced OHU might have potential effects on ENSO evolution.

Global ocean reanalysis CORA2 and its inter comparison with a set of other reanalysis products

We present the China Ocean ReAnalysis version 2 (CORA2) in this paper. We compare CORA2 with its predecessor, CORA1, and with other ocean reanalysis products created between 2004 and 2019 [GLORYS12v1 (Global Ocean reanalysis and Simulation), HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model), GREP (Global ocean Reanalysis Ensemble Product), SODA3 (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, version 3), and ECCO4 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, version 4)], to demonstrate its improvements and reliability. In addition to providing tide and sea ice signals, the accuracy and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) of CORA2 are also improved owing to an enhanced resolution of 9 km and updated data assimilation scheme compared with CORA1. Error analysis shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of CORA2 sea-surface temperature (SST) remains around 0.3°C, which is comparable to that of GREP and smaller than those of the other products studied. The subsurface temperature (salinity) RMSE of CORA2, at 0.87°C (0.15 psu), is comparable to that of SODA3, smaller than that of ECCO4, and larger than those of GLORYS12v1, HYCOM, and GREP. CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 can better represent sub-monthly-scale variations in subsurface temperature and salinity than the other products. Although the correlation coefficient of sea-level anomaly (SLA) in CORA2 does not exceed 0.8 in the whole region, as those of GREP and GLORYS12v1 do, it is more effective than ECCO4 and SODA3 in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. CORA2 can reproduce the variations in steric sea level and ocean heat content (OHC) on the multiple timescales as the other products. The linear trend of the steric sea level of CORA2 is closer to that of GREP than that of the other products, and the long-term warming trends of global OHC in the high-resolution CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 are greater than those in the low-resolution EN4 and GREP. Although CORA2 shows overall poorer performance in the Atlantic Ocean, it still achieves good results from 2009 onward. We plan to further improve CORA2 by assimilating the best available observation data using the incremental analysis update (IAU) procedure and improving the SLA assimilation method.

The Southern Ocean mixed layer and its boundary fluxes: fine-scale observational progress and future research priorities.

Interactions between the upper ocean and air-ice-ocean fluxes in the Southern Ocean play a critical role in global climate by impacting the overturning circulation and oceanic heat and carbon uptake. Remote and challenging conditions have led to sparse observational coverage, while ongoing field programmes often fail to collect sufficient information in the right place or at the time-space scales required to constrain the variability occurring in the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Only within the last 10 years have we been able to directly observe and assess the role of the fine-scale ocean and rapidly evolving atmospheric marine boundary layer on the upper limb of the Southern Ocean's overturning circulation. This review summarizes advances in mechanistic understanding, arising in part from observational programmes using autonomous platforms, of the fine-scale processes (1-100 km, hours-seasons) influencing the Southern Ocean mixed layer and its variability. We also review progress in observing the ocean interior connections and the coupled interactions between the ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere that moderate air-sea fluxes of heat and carbon. Most examples provided are for the ice-free Southern Ocean, while major challenges remain for observing the ice-covered ocean. We attempt to elucidate contemporary research gaps and ongoing/future efforts needed to address them. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

The rapid rise of severe marine heat wave systems

We introduce a new methodology to study marine heat waves (MHWs), extreme events in the sea surface temperature (SST) of the global ocean. Motivated by previously large and impactful MHWs and by theoretical expectation that the dominant heating processes coherently affect large regions of the ocean, we introduce a methodology from computer vision to construct marine heat wave systems (MWHSs) – the collation of SST extrema in dimensions of area and time. We identify 649 475 MHWSs in the 37 year period (1983–2019) of daily SST records and find that the duration (days), maximum area (km2), and total ‘volume’ (days km2) for the majority of MHWSs are well-described by power-law distributions: and . These characteristics confirm SST extrema exhibit strong spatial coherence that define the formation and evolution of MHWs. Furthermore, the most severe MHWSs deviate from these power-laws and are the dominant manifestation of MHWs: extrema in ocean heating are driven by the systems with largest area and duration. We further demonstrate that the previously purported rise in the incidence of MHW events over the past decade is only significant in these severe systems. A change point analysis reveals a rapid increase in days under a severe MHW in most regions of the global ocean over the period of 2000–2005. Understanding the origin and impacts of MHWs in the current and future ocean, therefore, should focus on the production and evolution of the largest-scale and longest-duration heating phenomena.

Influence of Shelf Break Processes on the Transport of Warm Waters Onto the Eastern Amundsen Sea Continental Shelf

AbstractThe heat transported onto the continental shelf by Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) is the main driver of ice shelf basal melting in the Amundsen Sea. Here, we investigate the slope current system and the variability of the heat transported through the Pine Island‐Thwaites central and eastern troughs using data from five moorings deployed in the region between 5 March 2012 and 7 February 2016. Substantial variability on intermonthly time scales (3–4 months) is observed in the onshore heat flux, driven primarily by zonal wind stress north of the shelf break. Heat content, onshore flow, and heat flux are highly correlated between central and eastern troughs, which are most likely dynamically linked by the zonal wind stress forcing. This is the first time this dynamic link between troughs is observed. In the eastern the Amundsen Sea, during the El Niño of 2015/2016, strong eastward winds led to lower temperatures over the continental shelf while the onshore heat flux is intensified. We hypothesize that this anti‐correlation between heat content and heat flux results from a strengthened eastward undercurrent leading to upwelling of a colder and deeper CDW variety. These results highlight the complex and heterogeneous response of this region to environmental and the importance of velocity data for understanding the dynamics in this region. It also suggests that the hypothesized link between large‐scale atmospheric forcing (e.g., El Niño‐Southern Oscillation) and ice‐shelf melt is not produced via changes in heat content, but instead via changes in onshore heat flux.

Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 °C carbon budget over space and time

Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 °C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 °C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 °C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.

Global High-Resolution Random Forest Regression Maps of Ocean Heat Content Anomalies Using In Situ and Satellite Data

Abstract The ocean, with its low albedo and vast thermal inertia, plays key roles in the climate system, including absorbing massive amounts of heat as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rise. While the Argo array of profiling floats has vastly improved sampling of ocean temperature in the upper half of the global ocean volume since the mid-2000s, they are not sufficient in number to resolve eddy scales in the oceans. However, satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) measurements do resolve these scales. Here we use random forest regressions to map ocean heat content anomalies (OHCA) using in situ training data from Argo and other sources on a 7-day × 1/4° × 1/4° grid with latitude, longitude, time, SSH, and SST as predictors. The maps display substantial patterns on eddy scales, resolving variations of ocean currents and fronts. During the well-sampled Argo period, global integrals of these maps reduce noise relative to estimates based on objective mapping of in situ data alone by roughly a factor of 3 when compared to time series of CERES (satellite data) top-of-the-atmosphere energy flux measurements and improve correlations of anomalies with CERES on annual time scales. Prior to and early on in the Argo period, when in situ data were sparser, global integrals of these maps retain low variance, and do not relax back to a climatological mean, avoiding potential deficiencies of various methods for infilling data-sparse regions with objective maps by exploiting temporal and spatial patterns of OHCA and its correlations with SST and SSH. Significance Statement We use a simple machine learning technique to improve maps of subsurface ocean warming by exploiting the relationships between subsurface ocean temperature both sea surface temperature and sea level. Mapping ocean warming is important because it contributes to sea level rise through thermal expansion; impacts marine life through marine heatwaves and changes in mixing, oxygen, and carbon dioxide levels; increases energy available to tropical cyclones; and stores most of the energy building up in Earth’s climate system owing to the accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Our new estimates generally have lower noise energy and higher correlations than other products when compared with global energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere measured by satellite.

Current Hydrological Regime of the Volga Reservoirs

The study is focused on variations of air temperature in the basin of the Volga reservoirs, the total inflow into the water bodies, their water exchange, water level and temperature, and the heat content of water mass in open-water period under various climate conditions. The object of the analysis is the long-term series of hydrometeorological data processed by statistical methods. It is shown that the present-day air temperature has increased by 1.3‒1.8°C compared with the period before 1976. The rate of warming was on the average 0.50°C/10 years. The volume of annual inflow increased by 12.4%. Three low-water and 4 high-water phases were identified in the reservoirs of the Upper Volga, including 29–31 low-water, 25–31 high-water, and 8–16 medium-water years. During the low-water phases, the volume of inflow into the reservoirs is 10–28% less than the long-term average, while in high-water years, it is 4–20% higher. The coefficient of water exchange in the reservoirs decreased or increased by 5–13% relative to the values obtained earlier. An increase in the winter and a decrease in the spring inflow were recorded in the reservoirs of the Upper Volga and in the Kuibyshev Reservoir. A tendency toward an increase in the normal annual water level was observed in the reservoirs in the upper part of the Volga and in the Kuibyshev Reservoir, while in the lower Volga, the normal annual level somewhat decreased. In low-water phases, the reservoir levels were on the average 17 cm below and in the high-water phases, 10 cm above the normal annual value. An increase in air temperature during the warm season in the reservoir water areas, on the average by 1.2°C, led to a synchronous increase in the temperature of the water mass by 1.1°C. At the same time, the heat content of the water mass of the reservoirs increased, on the average, by 24% in the upper part of the Volga and by as little as 2–11% in its lower part

Pulses of Cold Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean From an Ocean Model Simulation

AbstractThe intrusion of the warm and saline Atlantic Water (AW) has significant implications and feedback on the dynamics and thermodynamics of the Arctic Ocean. The AW enters the Arctic Ocean through two gateways: Fram Strait (FS) and the Barents Sea Opening (BSO). The AW is the dominant source of oceanic heat to the Arctic Ocean. In conjunction with the measurements in key hydrographic sections, numerical ocean modeling provides us with a useful tool to characterize and corroborate the temporal and spatial variability of the AW branches. Simulations are conducted using the regional configuration Arctic and North Hemispheric Atlantic (ANHA) of the ocean/sea‐ice model Nucleus for Modeling of the Ocean running at 1/4° and 1/12° resolution. Online passive tracers from the model configuration are used to trace the pathways of the AW inflow in the Arctic Ocean. While studying the variability of the AW through FS and the BSO, a cold mode of AW (Cold Atlantic Water [CAW]) with a temperature below 0℃ is detected along the rim of the eastern Eurasian Basin. It is formed primarily due to the intense sea surface cooling of the AW in the Barents and Kara Seas. The CAW exhibits the cascading process as it propagates downstream through the St. Anna Trough, leading to a considerable mixing with the ambient water. The CAW pulses eventually result in a significant heat content reduction in the eastern Arctic. This study provides insight into the changing AW property and its potential impact on the Arctic Basin.