Ocean Forecasting System Research Articles

Adaptive Re-planning of AUVs for Environmental Sampling Missions: A Fuzzy Decision Support System Based on Multi-objective Particle Swarm Optimization

This paper presents the first attempt at formulating the autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) adaptive sampling problem considering a spatiotemporal ocean environment and energy constraints. A path re-planning system that applies fuzzy logic in decision-making is then proposed to increase the sampling efficiency and reduce power consumption to complete the mission. The goal of adaptive sampling is to plan the trajectories of gliders or AUVs to collect ocean measurements located in areas most relevant to the phenomena under investigation. However, in an actual marine environment, common conditions exist under which AUVs need to adjust their routes as the phenomena change over time. These conditions also require the monitoring of AUV energy consumption under the effect of currents that vary in space and time. This two-objective optimization problem is solved using the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm to produce a set of solutions. A new fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE) method, based on decision-making using fuzzy logic, is then applied to select the optimum route from the solutions by adapting and regenerating trajectories according to the ocean forecast system, analysing different scenarios, and including constraints of the total operational time and energy restrictions. Several Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance and robustness of strategies determined via FCE for various scenarios.

A Technical Guide to Operational Regional Ocean Forecasting Systems in the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (I): Continuous Operation Strategy, Downloading External Data, and Error Notification

A Technical Guide to Operational Regional Ocean Forecasting Systems in the Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency (I): Continuous Operation Strategy, Downloading External Data, and Error Notification

Recent Advances in Japanese Fisheries Science in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Region through Development of the FRA-ROMS Ocean Forecast System: Overview of the Reproducibility of Reanalysis Products

To address various fisheries science problems around Japan, the Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency (FRA) has developed an ocean forecast system by combining an ocean circulation model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with three-dimensional variational analysis schemes. This system, which is called FRA-ROMS, is a basic and essential tool for the systematic conduct of fisheries science. The main aim of FRA-ROMS is to realistically simulate mesoscale variations over the Kuroshio-Oyashio region. Here, in situ oceanographic and satellite data were assimilated into FRA-ROMS using a weekly time window. We first examined the reproducibility through comparison with several oceanographic datasets with an Eulerian reference frame. FRA-ROMS was able to reproduce representative features of mesoscale variations such as the position of the Kuroshio path, variability of the Kuroshio Extension, and southward intrusions of the Oyashio. Second, using a Lagrangian reference frame, we estimated position errors between ocean drifters and particles passively transported by simulated currents, because particle tracking is an essential technique used in applications of reanalysis products to fisheries science. Finally, we summarize recent and ongoing fisheries studies that use FRA-ROMS and mention several new developments and enhancements that will be implemented in the near future.

Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F = 90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2–60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5–120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2–60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a range of periods around 60 days, the coastal sea level in Southern California is coherent with the sea surface height (SSH) variability over the shelf break in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, more than with the coastal SSH at the same latitudes.

Ocean forecasting for the German Bight: from regional to coastal scales

Abstract. This paper describes recent developments based on advances in coastal ocean forecasting in the fields of numerical modeling, data assimilation, and observational array design, exemplified by the Coastal Observing System for the North and Arctic Seas (COSYNA). The region of interest is the North and Baltic seas, and most of the coastal examples are for the German Bight. Several pre-operational applications are presented to demonstrate the outcome of using the best available science in coastal ocean predictions. The applications address the nonlinear behavior of the coastal ocean, which for the studied region is manifested by the tidal distortion and generation of shallow-water tides. Led by the motivation to maximize the benefits of the observations, this study focuses on the integration of observations and modeling using advanced statistical methods. Coastal and regional ocean forecasting systems do not operate in isolation but are linked, either weakly by using forcing data or interactively using two-way nesting or unstructured-grid models. Therefore, the problems of downscaling and upscaling are addressed, along with a discussion of the potential influence of the information from coastal observatories or coastal forecasting systems on the regional models. One example of coupling coarse-resolution regional models with a fine-resolution model interface in the area of straits connecting the North and Baltic seas using a two-way nesting method is presented. Illustrations from the assimilation of remote sensing, in situ and high-frequency (HF) radar data, the prediction of wind waves and storm surges, and possible applications to search and rescue operations are also presented. Concepts for seamless approaches to link coastal and regional forecasting systems are exemplified by the application of an unstructured-grid model for the Ems Estuary.

Better Informed Marine Operations and Management: Multidisciplinary Efforts in Ocean Forecasting Research for Socioeconomic Benefit

In Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), forecast systems are used to transform meteorological observations into forecasts that provide the basis for information services to the general public and many other users. In oceanography, in order to best exploit the observations, it is similarly necessary to transform them into coherent analyses and predictions that can be the basis for information services about the marine environment, its ecosystem, and the cryosphere that can be used in many applications and that can provide boundary data for weather predictions. Marine industries (e.g., commercial fishing, aquaculture, shipping, oil and gas, renewable energy, tourism), government agencies (e.g., those responsible for search and rescue, defense, coastal management, environmental protection), and other stakeholders (e.g., recreation, water sports, artisanal and sport fishing) depend on timely and accurate information about the marine environment. This includes ocean physical and biological states, the weather, and for some areas, ice cover from hours to weeks in advance as well as in the past. Supported by progress in numerical ocean modeling and data assimilation methods; increased supercomputing capacity; and most importantly, enhanced, routine, and sustained in situ and remotely sensed ocean observations, the last decade saw the development and operational implementation of mesoscale (eddy-resolving) short- and medium-range (days to weeks) ocean forecasting and reanalysis capabilities at many operational weather and ocean forecasting centers. The building and maintaining of operational ocean forecasting systems require a wide range of expertise. Most global ocean forecasting systems transition from research and demonstration modes to sustained, permanent operational capabilities with attendant infrastructure (European Commission 2015). Beyond the traditional short-term forecasting of physical ocean properties (temperature, salinity, surface height, currents, waves), marine activities such as water quality and habitat management as well as climate research increasingly rely on operational oceanographic data and products. To satisfy existing and new requirements for end-use applications, such as coastal protection, ecosystem monitoring and forecasting, and climate monitoring, these operational ocean forecasting systems must be sustained, as well as evolve and improve, to remain relevant with broad utility.

The Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety dedicated to oil slicks predictions

In the Mediterranean sea the risk from oil spill pollution is high due to the heavy traffic of merchant vessels for transporting oil and gas, especially after the recent enlargement of the Suez canal and to the increasing coastal and offshore installations related to the oil industry in general. The basic response to major oil spills includes different measures and equipment. However, in order to strengthen the maritime safety related to oil spill pollution in the Mediterranean and to assist the response agencies, a multi-model oil spill prediction service has been set up, known as MEDESS-4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety). The concept behind the MEDESS-4MS service is the integration of the existing national ocean forecasting systems in the region with the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and their interconnection, through a dedicated network data repository, facilitating access to all these data and to the data from the oil spill monitoring platforms, including the satellite data ones, with the well established oil spill models in the region. The MEDESS-4MS offer a range of service scenarios, multi-model data access and interactive capabilities to suite the needs of REMPEC (Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea) and EMSA-CSN (European Maritime Safety Agency-CleanseaNet).

Comparison and validation of global and regional ocean forecasting systems for the South China Sea

Abstract. In this paper, the performance of two operational ocean forecasting systems, the global Mercator Océan (MO) Operational System, developed and maintained by Mercator Océan in France, and the regional South China Sea Operational Forecasting System (SCSOFS), by the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC) in China, have been examined. Both systems can provide science-based nowcast/forecast products of temperature, salinity, water level, and ocean circulations. Comparison and validation of the ocean circulations, the structures of temperature and salinity, and some mesoscale activities, such as ocean fronts, typhoons, and mesoscale eddies, are conducted based on observed satellite and in situ data obtained in 2012 in the South China Sea. The results showed that MO performs better in simulating the ocean circulations and sea surface temperature (SST), and SCSOFS performs better in simulating the structures of temperature and salinity. For the mesoscale activities, the performance of SCSOFS is better than MO in simulating SST fronts and SST decrease during Typhoon Tembin compared with the previous studies and satellite data; but model results from both of SCSOFS and MO show some differences from satellite observations. In conclusion, some recommendations have been proposed for both forecast systems to improve their forecasting performance in the near future based on our comparison and validation.

Characterizing the surface circulation in Ebro Delta (NW Mediterranean) with HF radar and modeled current data

Quality-controlled current observations from a High Frequency radar (HFR) network deployed in the Ebro River Delta (NW Mediterranean) were combined with outputs from IBI operational ocean forecasting system in order to comprehensively portray the ocean state and its variability during 2014. Accurate HFR data were used as benchmark for a rigorous validation of the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) regional system, routinely operated in the frame of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The analysis of skill metrics and monthly averaged current maps showed that IBI reasonably captured the prevailing dynamic features of the coastal circulation previously observed by the HFR, according to the moderate resemblance found in circulation patterns and the spatial distribution of eddy kinetic energy. The model skill assessment was completed with an exploration of dominant modes of spatiotemporal variability. The EOF analysis confirmed that the modeled surface current field evolved both in space and time according to three significantly dominant modes of variability which accounted for the 49.2% of the total variance, in close agreement with the results obtained for HFR (46.1%). The response of the subtidal surface current field to prevailing wind regime in the study area was examined in terms of induced circulation structures and immediacy of reaction by performing a conditional averaging approach and a time-lagged vector correlation analysis, respectively. This observations-model synergistic strategy has proved to be valid to operationally monitor the complex coastal circulation in Ebro Delta despite the observed model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents and some inaccuracies in the wind-driven low frequency response. This integrated methodology aids to improve the prognostic capabilities of IBI ocean forecasting system and also to facilitate high-stakes decision-making for coastal management in the Ebro River Delta marine protected area.

Ocean model skill assessment in the NW Mediterranean using multi-sensor data

ABSTRACTThis paper showcases the one year-long (2014) multi-parameter skill assessment of Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) operational ocean forecasting system. The investigation is focused on a specific subdomain in the Northwestern Mediterranean where several observational networks encompassing both in situ and remote sensing instruments are available. This region is relevant since it includes two harbours and a marine protected area, the Ebro River Delta. Class-1 and class-2 skill metrics are used in concert to quantitatively evaluate the quality of hourly IBI surface fields. The impact of riverine discharges on the coastal circulation is investigated by comparing the signal of the Ebro River freshwater outflow in both observed (high-frequency radar (HFR)) and modelled (IBI) current maps. The ability of the HFR and IBI to detect the presence of coastal eddies is also qualitatively estimated by calculating surface vorticity maps. According to the results, basic circulation features are statistically reproduced by IBI in reference to mean and variance, despite some model drawbacks in terms of reduced energy content in surface currents. IBI has proven to be a robust model solution in the study area, able to act as a consistent large-scale ‘father’ system in future downscaling approaches by providing coherent open boundary conditions to nested high-resolution coastal models.

How is the surface Atlantic water inflow through the Gibraltar Strait forecasted? A lagrangian validation of operational oceanographic services in the Alboran Sea and the Western Mediterranean

An exhaustive validation of some of the operational ocean forecast products available in the Gibraltar Strait and the Alboran Sea is here presented. The skill of two ocean model solutions (derived from the Eulerian ocean forecast systems, such as the regional CMEMS IBI and the high resolution PdE SAMPA) in reproducing the complex surface dynamics in the above areas is evaluated. To this aim, in-situ measurements from the MEDESS-GIB drifter buoy database (comprising the Lagrangian positions, derived velocities and SST values) are used as the observational reference and the temporal coverage for the validation is 3 months (September to December 2014). Two metrics, a Lagrangian separation distance and a skill score, have been applied to evaluate the performance of the modelling systems in reproducing the observed trajectories. Furthermore, the SST validation with in-situ data is carried out by means of validating the model solutions with L3 satellite SST products. The Copernicus regional IBI products are evaluated in an extended domain, beyond the Alboran Sea, and covering western Mediterranean waters. This analysis reveals some strengths of the presented regional solution (i.e. realistic values of the Atlantic Jet in the Strait of Gibraltar area, realistic simulation of the Algerian Current). However, some shortcomings are also identified, with the major one being related to the simulated geographical position and intensity of the Alboran Gyres, particularly the western one. This performance limitation affects the IBI-modelled surface circulation in the entire Alboran Sea. On the other hand, the SAMPA system shows a more accurate model performance and it realistically reproduces the observed surface circulation in the area. The results reflect the effectiveness of the dynamical downscaling performed through the SAMPA system with respect to the regional IBI solution (in which SAMPA is nested), providing an objective measure of the potential added values introduced by the SAMPA downscaling solution in the Alboran Sea.

Predicting ocean surface currents using numerical weather prediction model and Kohonen neural network: a northern Adriatic study

The paper documents a concept of ocean forecasting system for ocean surface currents based on self-organizing map (SOM) trained by high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and high-frequency (HF) radar data. Wind and surface currents data from the northern Adriatic coastal area were used in a 6-month long training phase to obtain SOM patterns. Very high correlation between current and joined current and wind SOM patterns indicated the strong relationship between winds and currents and allowed for creation of a prediction system. Increasing SOM dimensions did not increase reliability of the forecasting system, being limited by the amount of the data used for training and achieving the lowest errors for 4 × 4 SOM matrix. As the HF radars and high-resolution NWP models are strongly expanding in coastal oceans, providing reliable and long-term datasets, the applicability of the proposed SOM-based forecasting system is expected to be high.

An assessment of the Brazil Current baroclinic structure and variability near 22° S in Distinct Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems

The Brazil Current (BC) is the Western Boundary Current of the South Atlantic subtropical gyre, the dominant dynamic feature in the South Atlantic Ocean. The importance of this current lies in that it is the main conduit of subtropical waters to higher latitudes in the South Atlantic Ocean. This study assesses the structure and variability of the BC across the nominal latitude of 22° S using data from the high-density eXpendable BathyThermograph (XBT) AX97 transect and from three numerical ocean models with data assimilation. This XBT transect was implemented in 2004 and represents one of the longer-term monitoring systems of the BC in existence. The goal of this work is to enhance the understanding of the temporal and spatial variability of the ocean dynamics in the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean by using a suite of hydrographic observations and numerical model outputs. In the present work, 37 XBT transect realizations using data collected between 2004 and 2012 are used. Daily outputs covering the same time period are evaluated from Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model with the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (HYCOM-NCODA) with a 1/12° horizontal resolution, and GLORYS2V3 and FOAM, both with a 1/4° horizontal resolution. These Ocean Forecasting and Analysis Systems (OFAS) are able to capture the mean observed features in the 22° S region, showing a BC core confined to the west of 39° W and an Intermediate Western Boundary Current between the depths of 200 and 800 m. However, the OFAS tend to overestimate the mean BC baroclinic volume transport across the AX97 reference transect and underestimate its variability. The OFAS show that the coastal region between the coastline and the western edge of the AX97 transect plays an important role in the mean BC total transport, contributing to up to 23 % of its value, and further that this transport is not sampled by the XBT observations with its current sampling strategy. In order to understand the variability of the BC, a statistical classification of the BC is proposed, with the identification of three different events: weak, intermediate, and strong.

Evaluation of an operational ocean model configuration at 1/12° spatial resolution for the Indonesian seas (NEMO2.3/INDO12) – Part 2: Biogeochemistry

Abstract. In the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure Development of Space Oceanography) project, an operational ocean forecasting system was developed to monitor the state of the Indonesian seas in terms of circulation, biogeochemistry and fisheries. This forecasting system combines a suite of numerical models connecting physical and biogeochemical variables to population dynamics of large marine predators (tunas). The physical–biogeochemical coupled component (the INDO12BIO configuration) covers a large region extending from the western Pacific Ocean to the eastern Indian Ocean at 1/12° horizontal resolution. The NEMO-OPA (Nucleus for European Model of the Ocean) physical ocean model and the PISCES (Pelagic Interactions Scheme for Carbon and Ecosystem Studies) biogeochemical model are running simultaneously ("online" coupling), at the same resolution. The operational global ocean forecasting system (1/4°) operated by Mercator Océan provides the physical forcing, while climatological open boundary conditions are prescribed for the biogeochemistry. This paper describes the skill assessment of the INDO12BIO configuration. Model skill is assessed by evaluating a reference hindcast simulation covering the last 8 years (2007–2014). Model results are compared to satellite, climatological and in situ observations. Diagnostics are performed on nutrients, oxygen, chlorophyll a, net primary production and mesozooplankton. The model reproduces large-scale distributions of nutrients, oxygen, chlorophyll a, net primary production and mesozooplankton biomasses. Modelled vertical distributions of nutrients and oxygen are comparable to in situ data sets although gradients are slightly smoothed. The model simulates realistic biogeochemical characteristics of North Pacific tropical waters entering in the archipelago. Hydrodynamic transformation of water masses across the Indonesian archipelago allows for conserving nitrate and oxygen vertical distribution close to observations, in the Banda Sea and at the exit of the archipelago. While the model overestimates the mean surface chlorophyll a, the seasonal cycle is in phase with satellite estimations, with higher chlorophyll a concentrations in the southern part of the archipelago during the SE monsoon and in the northern part during the NW monsoon. The time series of chlorophyll a anomalies suggests that meteorological and ocean physical processes that drive the interannual variability of biogeochemical properties in the Indonesian region are reproduced by the model.

Modeling of 137Cs as a Tracer in a Regional Model for the Western Pacific, after the Fukushima–Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident of March 2011

Abstract In this study, results are presented from the first operational ocean tracer dispersion model operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NOAA/NWS/NCEP). This study addresses the dispersion of radionuclide contaminants after the Fukushima–Daiichi nuclear accident that was triggered by the 11 March 2011 earthquake and tsunami. The tracer capabilities of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) were used in a regional domain for the northwestern Pacific, with nesting lateral boundary conditions using daily nowcast–forecast fields from the global operational Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS-Global), a ° HYCOM global forecast from NCEP, based on data-assimilative ° HYCOM Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) analyses from the Naval Research Laboratory/Naval Oceanographic Office (NRL/NAVOCEANO). This regional model, RTOFS Episodic Tracers for a region of the North West Pacific (RTOFS-ET_WPA), was in operation until the beginning of 2014, when the simulated 137Cs concentration was very close to the background level in the Pacific before the accident, which was about 2 Becquerel m−3 [Bq; 1 Becquerel = 1 (nuclear decay) s−1].

Evaluation of an operational ocean model configuration at 1/12° spatial resolution for the Indonesian seas (NEMO2.3/INDO12) – Part 1: Ocean physics

Abstract. INDO12 is a 1/12° regional version of the NEMO physical ocean model covering the whole Indonesian EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). It has been developed and is now running every week in the framework of the INDESO (Infrastructure Development of Space Oceanography) project implemented by the Indonesian Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries. The initial hydrographic conditions as well as open-boundary conditions are derived from the operational global ocean forecasting system at 1/4° operated by Mercator Océan. Atmospheric forcing fields (3-hourly ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) analyses) are used to force the regional model. INDO12 is also forced by tidal currents and elevations, and by the inverse barometer effect. The turbulent mixing induced by internal tides is taken into account through a specific parameterisation. In this study we evaluate the model skill through comparisons with various data sets including outputs of the parent model, climatologies, in situ temperature and salinity measurements, and satellite data. The biogeochemical model results assessment is presented in a companion paper (Gutknecht et al., 2015). The simulated and altimeter-derived Eddy Kinetic Energy fields display similar patterns and confirm that tides are a dominant forcing in the area. The volume transport of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) is in good agreement with the INSTANT estimates while the transport through Luzon Strait is, on average, westward but probably too weak. Compared to satellite data, surface salinity and temperature fields display marked biases in the South China Sea. Significant water mass transformation occurs along the main routes of the ITF and compares well with observations. Vertical mixing is able to modify the South and North Pacific subtropical water-salinity maximum as seen in T–S diagrams. In spite of a few weaknesses, INDO12 proves to be able to provide a very realistic simulation of the ocean circulation and water mass transformation through the Indonesian Archipelago. Work is ongoing to reduce or eliminate the remaining problems in the second INDO12 version.

Surface circulation in Block Island Sound and adjacent coastal and shelf regions: A FVCOM-CODAR comparison

CODAR-derived surface currents in Block Island Sound over the period of June 2000 through September 2008 were compared to currents computed using the Northeast Coastal Ocean Forecast System (NECOFS). The measurement uncertainty of CODAR-derived currents, estimated using statistics of a screened nine-year time series of hourly-averaged flow field, ranged from 3 to 7cm/s in speed and 4° to 14° in direction. The CODAR-derived and model-computed kinetic energy spectrum densities were in good agreement at subtidal frequencies, but the NECOFS-derived currents were larger by about 28% at semi-diurnal and diurnal tidal frequencies. The short-term (hourly to daily) current variability was dominated by the semidiurnal tides (predominantly the M2 tide), which on average accounted for ∼87% of the total kinetic energy. The diurnal tidal and subtidal variability accounted for ∼4% and ∼9% of the total kinetic energy, respectively. The monthly-averaged difference between the CODAR-derived and model-computed velocities over the study area was 6cm/s or less in speed and 28° or less in direction over the study period. An EOF analysis for the low-frequency vertically-averaged model current field showed that the water transport in the Block Island Sound region was dominated by modes 1 and 2, which accounted for 89% and 7% of the total variance, respectively. Mode 1 represented a relatively stationary spatial and temporal flow pattern with a magnitude that varied with season. Mode 2 was characterized mainly by a secondary cross-shelf flow and a relatively strong along-shelf flow. Process-oriented model experiments indicated that the relatively stationary flow pattern found in mode 1 was a result of tidal rectification and its magnitude changed with seasonal stratification. Correlation analysis between the flow and wind stress suggested that the cross-shelf water transport and its temporal variability in mode 2 were highly correlated to the surface wind forcing. The mode 2 derived onshore and offshore water transport, and was consistent with wind-driven Ekman theory. The along-shelf water transport over the outer shelf, where a large portion of the water flowed from upstream Nantucket Shoals, was not highly correlated to the surface wind stress.

SOCIB operational ocean forecasting system and multi-platform validation in the Western Mediterranean Sea

ABSTRACTThis paper describes the high-resolution Western Mediterranean Sea Operational Forecasting System (WMOP) developed at the Balearic Islands Coastal Observing and Forecasting System (SOCIB). The system runs on a daily basis driven by high-resolution atmospheric forcing, providing 3-day forecasts of physical oceanic variables with a 2 km horizontal resolution, thus representing the ocean variability from mesoscale to basin scale from the Gibraltar Strait to the Sardinia Channel. A systematic regional monitoring and validation system has been developed using multi-platform observations, allowing the evaluation of both the overall realism of the predictions and the specific errors in each sub-basin.

Impact of different initialisation methods on the quality of sea forecasts for the Sicily Channel

ABSTRACTAn operational ocean forecasting system provided numerical predictions on the main hydrodynamics in the seas around Sicily. The system is evaluated using an independent dataset of sea surface temperature (SST) satellite observations. A set of specific numerical experiments are carried and the simulated SST data was compared with the satellite data observed at selected dates. Two kinds of initialisation techniques are adopted to generate different initial conditions: ‘slave mode’ and ‘partially active mode’. The accuracy of both approaches is analysed to individuate the optimal nesting strategy. The results show that the partially active mode improves the forecasts, resulting in a model accuracy increase of up to about 30%.

Challenges of building an operational ocean forecasting system for small island regions: regional to local

ABSTRACTAn ocean circulation forecasting model for the Madeira Archipelago is operational since May 2010. Developing a forecasting system for a small island oceanic region, deprived from in-situ observations, is a challenging task since there are limited ways to validate predictions. Furthermore, model resolution concurrent with insufficient computational power, locally available, are other limiting factors to consider. Regional models combined with the possibility to downscale solutions onto a higher resolution island-scale model is a way to overcome some of such limitations. Nevertheless, generalised regional models must be able to accurately represent the far-field and transport important features such as meddies onto the local systems; while island-scale models must have sufficient grid resolution as well as adequate physics and accurate atmospheric forcing to resolve the near-field phenomena. An island-induced cyclonic eddy event was successfully observed and forecasted with the current approach (regional-local). Generalised single (regional) model initiatives will prove to be insufficient to deal with mesoscale dynamic systems, islands and seamounts are important generators of mesoscale features in the NE Atlantic, with basin scale implications. The forecasting systems of the future should also consider upscaling valid local (island-scale) solutions onto Regional and/or Global models.