Ocean Boundary Conditions Research Articles

Precursory Signals (SST and Soil Moisture) of Summer Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau

Understanding the variability of surface air temperature (SAT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its precursory signals is of great benefit to climate change adaptation and socioeconomic development. This study explores the precursory signals of summer SATs over the TP in oceanic and land boundary conditions. The results show that the summer eastern TP SAT is significantly correlated with three precursors in April: the high-latitude North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), the northern Indian Ocean SST, and the Indian soil moisture (SM). The April SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the high-latitude North Atlantic can exert a cross-season impact on the summer SAT over the TP through two processes. The SSTAs in the high-latitude North Atlantic maintain from April to summer and modulate atmospheric circulation over the eastern TP through exciting a downstream wave train during summer, and finally modulate the summer SAT over the eastern TP. In addition to the above process, the April SSTAs in the high-latitude North Atlantic may remotely regulate simultaneous SM in the Indian subcontinent through stimulating a downstream wave train pattern. Through a persistent SM–precipitation interaction, the April Indian SM anomaly can affect the local precipitation and associated condensation heating anomalies during the ensuing summer, which forces an anomalous cyclone–anticyclone pattern around the TP and accordingly affects the summer SAT over the eastern TP. Additionally, the SSTAs in the northern Indian Ocean can persist from April to summer and adjust the intensity and location of the western North Pacific subtropical high through the Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence during summer, eventually affecting the summer eastern TP SAT. The three precursory signals, which synergistically contribute to the variability of the summer eastern TP SAT, can be applied in predicting the summer SAT over the eastern TP.

CHALLENGES OF BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN OPEN OCEAN MODELS

The development and calibration of coastal numerical models to support engineering design and environmental impact studies is a challenging process and one that requires professional judgement and continual assessment of all aspects of the model makeup. Fundamental to the integrity of the model are appropriate boundary conditions and quality observational data for calibration. Open ocean boundary conditions are typically the most complex and important aspect of a model build. They represent the influence of dynamics occurring beyond the model extent, bridging large-scale dynamics to the small-scale processes in the model. This study discusses the challenges of open ocean boundaries and how we utilised data to achieve an effective model.Recorded Presentation from the vICCE (YouTube Link): https://youtu.be/evL7f_17wZg

Anthropogenic Aerosols Dominate Forced Multidecadal Sahel Precipitation Change through Distinct Atmospheric and Oceanic Drivers

AbstractSahel precipitation has undergone substantial multidecadal time scale changes during the twentieth century that have had severe impacts on the region’s population. Using initial-condition large ensembles (LE) of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations from two institutions, forced multidecadal variability is found in which Sahel precipitation declines from the 1950s to 1970s and then recovers from the 1970s to 2000s. This forced variability has similar timing to, but considerably smaller magnitude than, observed Sahel precipitation variability. Isolating the response using single forcing simulations within the LEs reveals that anthropogenic aerosols (AA) are the primary driver of this forced variability. The roles of the direct-atmospheric and the ocean-mediated atmospheric responses to AA forcing are determined with the atmosphere–land GCM (AGCM) components of the LE coupled GCMs. The direct-atmospheric response arises from changes to aerosol and precursor emissions with unchanged oceanic boundary conditions while the ocean-mediated response arises from changes to AA-forced sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations diagnosed from the AA-forced LE. In the AGCMs studied here, the direct-atmospheric response dominates the AA-forced 1970s − 1950s Sahel drying. On the other hand, the 2000s − 1970s wetting is mainly driven by the ocean-mediated effect, with some direct atmospheric contribution. Although the responses show differences, there is qualitative agreement between the AGCMs regarding the roles of the direct-atmospheric and ocean-mediated responses. Since these effects often compete and show nonlinearity, the model dependence of these effects and their role in the net aerosol-forced response of Sahel precipitation need to be carefully accounted for in future model analysis.

Effective sample size for precipitation estimation in atmospheric general circulation model ensemble experiments: dependence on temporal and spatial averaging scales

The accuracy of climate projections is improved by increasing the number of samples from ensemble experiments, leading to a decrease in the confidence interval of a target climatological variable. The improvement in the accuracy depends on the degree of independence of each ensemble member in the experiments. When the members of ensemble experiments are dependent on each other, the introduction of an effective sample size (ESS) is necessary to correctly estimate the confidence interval. This study is the first attempt to estimate the ESS for precipitation as a function of the number of ensemble members, although some previous studies have investigated another type of ESS in terms of the length of simulation period. The ESS in the present study is intrinsic to the atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) forced by the ocean boundary condition because the outputs of AGCM ensemble members are similar or dependent on each other due to the commonly used boundary condition, i.e., the distribution of sea surface temperature, sea ice concentration, and sea ice thickness. Looking at the values of ESS as a function of geographical location, those in the tropics and over the ocean are smaller than those at higher latitudes and over continents; precipitation events in areas with smaller (larger) ESS are strongly (weakly) constrained by the ocean boundary condition. The increase in temporal and spatial averaging scales for precipitation estimation leads to the decrease in the ESS, of whose trend is attributed to the spatio-temporal characteristics of the precipitation events as represented by the power spectrum and co-spectrum.

Dynamical downscaling of unforced interannual sea-level variability in the North-West European shelf seas

Variability of Sea-Surface Height (SSH) from ocean dynamic processes is an important component of sea-level change. In this study we dynamically downscale a present-day control simulation of a climate model to replicate sea-level variability in the Northwest European shelf seas. The simulation can reproduce many characteristics of sea-level variability exhibited in tide gauge and satellite altimeter observations. We examine the roles of lateral ocean boundary conditions and surface atmospheric forcings in determining the sea-level variability in the model interior using sensitivity experiments. Variability in the oceanic boundary conditions leads to uniform sea-level variations across the shelf. Atmospheric variability leads to spatial SSH variability with a greater mean amplitude. We separate the SSH variability into a uniform loading term (change in shelf volume with no change in distribution), and a spatial redistribution term (with no volume change). The shelf loading variance accounted for 80% of the shelf mean total variance, but this drops to ~ 60% around Scotland and in the southeast North Sea. We analyse our modelled variability to provide a useful context to coastal planners and managers. Our 200-year simulation allows the distribution of the unforced trends (over 4–21 year) of sea-level changes to be quantified. We found that the 95th percentile change over a 4-year period can lead to coastal sea-level changes of ~ 58 mm, which must be considered when using smooth sea level projections. We also found that simulated coastal SSH variations have long correlation length-scales, suggesting that observations of interannual sea-level variability from tide gauges are typically representative of > 200 km of the adjacent coast. This helps guide the use of tide gauge variability estimates.

Regional Versus Remote Atmosphere‐Ocean Drivers of the Rapid Projected Intensification of the East Australian Current

AbstractLike many western boundary currents, the East Australian Current (EAC) extension is projected to get stronger and warmer in the future. The CMIP5 multimodel mean (MMM) projection suggests up to 5°C of warming under an RCP85 scenario by 2100. Previous studies employed Sverdrup balance to associate a trend in basin wide zonally integrated wind stress curl (resulting from the multidecadal poleward intensification in the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean) with enhanced transport in the EAC extension. Possible regional drivers are yet to be considered. Here we introduce the NEMO‐OASIS‐WRF coupled regional climate model as a framework to improve our understanding of CMIP5 projections. We analyze a hierarchy of simulations in which the regional atmosphere and ocean circulations are allowed to freely evolve subject to boundary conditions that represent present‐day and CMIP5 RCP8.5 climate change anomalies. Evaluation of the historical simulation shows an EAC extension that is stronger than similar ocean‐only models and observations. This bias is not explained by a linear response to differences in wind stress. The climate change simulations show that regional atmospheric CMIP5 MMM anomalies drive 73% of the projected 12 Sv increase in EAC extension transport whereas the remote ocean boundary conditions and regional radiative forcing (greenhouse gases within the domain) play a smaller role. The importance of regional changes in wind stress curl in driving the enhanced EAC extension is consistent with linear theory where the NEMO‐OASIS‐WRF response is closer to linear transport estimates compared to the CMIP5 MMM.

4DVAR Data Assimilation in the Brazilian Equatorial Margin-Costa Norte Project

Toste, R.; Soares, A.E.; Nehme, D.M; Sancho, L.; Böck, C.S.; Assad, L.P.F. and Landau, L., 2020. 4DVAR data assimilation in the Brazilian Equatorial Margin – Costa Norte Project. In: Malvárez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 1326–1332. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Within the Costa Norte R&D Project, a hydrodynamic climatology was constructed for the Brazilian equatorial margin. The strong incremental constraint approach of the 4DVAR scheme inserted in the Regional Ocean Modeling System was used and applied to the initial, ocean boundary, and atmospheric forcing conditions. In situ data of temperature and salinity from the EN4 Project and remote data of sea surface temperature and sea level anomalies respectively from the OSTIA and AVISO datasets were assimilated. Besides being the first data assimilation approach performed in this energetic area, it was observed that the model consistently represented the spatial and temporal variability of the main mesoscale oceanographic features in the studied region.

Contribution of oceanic wave propagation from the tropical Pacific to asymmetry of the Ningaloo Niño/Niña

Ningaloo Nino/Nina is the dominant mode of interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the southeastern Indian Ocean. According to previous studies, both local air-sea interaction and remote forcing contribute to generation and amplification of the Ningaloo Nino/Nina. The latter forcing includes the atmospheric teleconnection and oceanic wave propagation through the Indonesian archipelago, mainly associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One of the most important characteristics of the Ningaloo Nino/Nina is their asymmetry; the Ningaloo Nino is stronger than the Ningaloo Nina. Using a regional ocean modeling system (ROMS), the impact of oceanic wave propagation on the amplitude and asymmetry of SST anomalies associated with the Ningaloo Nino/Nina is investigated. For these purposes, a sensitivity experiment in which oceanic lateral boundary conditions are replaced by the monthly climatology is conducted. It is shown that the oceanic teleconnection transmitted from the western tropical Pacific can explain about 30% of the observed amplitude asymmetry in SST anomalies. Results from composite and heat budget analyses suggest that coastal downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves from the western tropical Pacific associated with La Nina (El Nino) that often co-occurs with the Ningaloo Nino (Nina) are stronger (weaker) and contribute to the asymmetry.

Twenty-first century ocean forcing of the Greenland ice sheet for modelling of sea level contribution

Abstract. Changes in ocean temperature and salinity are expected to be an important determinant of the Greenland ice sheet's future sea level contribution. Yet, simulating the impact of these changes in continental-scale ice sheet models remains challenging due to the small scale of key physics, such as fjord circulation and plume dynamics, and poor understanding of critical processes, such as calving and submarine melting. Here we present the ocean forcing strategy for Greenland ice sheet models taking part in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), the primary community effort to provide 21st century sea level projections for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. Beginning from global atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, we describe two complementary approaches to provide ocean boundary conditions for Greenland ice sheet models, termed the “retreat” and “submarine melt” implementations. The retreat implementation parameterises glacier retreat as a function of projected subglacial discharge and ocean thermal forcing, is designed to be implementable by all ice sheet models and results in retreat of around 1 and 15 km by 2100 in RCP2.6 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. The submarine melt implementation provides estimated submarine melting only, leaving the ice sheet model to solve for the resulting calving and glacier retreat and suggests submarine melt rates will change little under RCP2.6 but will approximately triple by 2100 under RCP8.5. Both implementations have necessarily made use of simplifying assumptions and poorly constrained parameterisations and, as such, further research on submarine melting, calving and fjord–shelf exchange should remain a priority. Nevertheless, the presented framework will allow an ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models to be systematically and consistently forced by the ocean for the first time and should result in a significant improvement in projections of the Greenland ice sheet's contribution to future sea level change.

Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Subsurface Velocity Profile of the Indonesian Throughflow at Makassar Strait

AbstractAlthough there have been many previous studies that have interpreted the variability of Indonesian Throughflow transport, the processes that determine its vertical structure have rarely been investigated due to limited observations and model inefficiencies. In this study, a regionally coupled model is developed to address this issue. The model adopts an unstructured model grid, with an ~3‐km resolution within the Indonesian seas and straits, and reveals somewhat inconsistent results compared to previous models with coarser resolutions. The results suggest that the seasonal variability of the depth of the Indonesian Throughflow velocity maximum is partially controlled by the seasonally reversed Karimata throughflow, while the remainder primarily originated from the Mindanao–Sulawesi inflow rather than the Sibutu Strait throughflow. The Mindanao–Sulawesi inflow possesses a subsurface velocity core similar to that of the Makassar Strait, with a deep (shallow) maximum during El Niño (La Niña) years that plays a crucial role in determining the downstream Makassar throughflow profile in the interannual time scale. A sensitivity experiment by fixing Indian Ocean boundary condition shows that the impacts from the Indian Ocean might be significant only within the intraseasonal to seasonal time scales.

Routes to long‐term atmospheric predictability in reduced‐order coupled ocean–atmosphere systems: Impact of the ocean basin boundary conditions

The predictability of the atmosphere at short and long time‐scales associated with coupling to the ocean is explored in a new version of the Modular Arbitrary‐Order Ocean–Atmosphere Model (MAOOAM), based on a two‐layer quasigeostrophic atmosphere and a one‐layer reduced‐gravity quasigeostrophic ocean. This version features a new ocean basin geometry with periodic boundary conditions in the zonal direction. The analysis presented in this article considers a low‐order version of the model with 40 dynamical variables. First, the increase of surface friction (and the associated heat flux) due to the ocean can either induce chaos when the aspect ratio between the meridional and zonal directions of the domain of integration is small or suppress chaos when it is large. This reflects the potentially counterintuitive role that the ocean can play in the coupled dynamics. Second, and perhaps more importantly, the emergence of long‐term predictability within the atmosphere for specific values of the friction coefficient occurs through intermittent excursions in the vicinity of a (long‐period) unstable periodic solution. Once close to this solution, the system is predictable for long times, i.e. a few years. The intermittent transition close to this orbit is, however, erratic and probably hard to predict. This new route to long‐term predictability contrasts with the one found in the closed ocean‐basin low‐order version of MAOOAM, in which the chaotic solution is permanently wandering in the vicinity of an unstable periodic orbit for specific values of the friction coefficient. The model solution is thus influenced by the unstable periodic orbit at any time, and inherits from its long‐term predictability.

Evaluating the impact of atmospheric forcing and air–sea coupling on near-coastal regional ocean prediction

Abstract. Atmospheric forcing applied as ocean model boundary conditions can have a critical impact on the quality of ocean forecasts. This paper assesses the sensitivity of an eddy-resolving (1.5 km resolution) regional ocean model of the north-west European Shelf (NWS) to the choice of atmospheric forcing and atmosphere–ocean coupling. The analysis is focused on a month-long simulation experiment for July 2014 and evaluation of simulated sea surface temperature (SST) in a shallow near-coastal region to the south-west of the UK (Celtic Sea and western English Channel). Observations of the ocean and atmosphere are used to evaluate model results, with a particular focus on the L4 ocean buoy from the Western Channel Observatory as a rare example of co-located data above and below the sea surface. The impacts of differences in the atmospheric forcing are illustrated by comparing results from an ocean model run in forcing mode using operational global-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) data with an ocean model run forced by a convective-scale regional atmosphere model. The value of dynamically representing feedbacks between the atmosphere and ocean state is assessed via the use of these model components within a fully coupled ocean–wave–atmosphere system. Simulated SSTs show considerable sensitivity to atmospheric forcing and to the impact of model coupling in near-coastal areas. A warm ocean bias relative to in situ observations in the simulation forced by global-scale NWP (0.7 K in the model domain) is shown to be reduced (to 0.4 K) via the use of the 1.5 km resolution regional atmospheric forcing. When simulated in coupled mode, this bias is further reduced (by 0.2 K). Results demonstrate much greater variability of both the surface heat budget terms and the near-surface winds in the convective-scale atmosphere model data, as might be expected. Assessment of the surface heat budget and wind forcing over the ocean is challenging due to a scarcity of observations. However, it can be demonstrated that the wind speed over the ocean simulated by the convective-scale atmosphere did not agree as well with the limited number of observations as the global-scale NWP data did. Further partially coupled experiments are discussed to better understand why the degraded wind forcing does not detrimentally impact on SST results.

Examining the Predictability of the Successive MJO Events of November 2011 Using Coupled 30-Day NAVGEM and COAMPS Simulations

AbstractGiven the prohibitive expense of running a global coupled high-resolution model for multiweek forecasts, we explore the feasibility of running a limited-area model forced by a global model on monthly time scales. Specifically, we seek to understand the constraints of the accuracy of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) produced by NAVGEM on the skill of limited-area COAMPS forecasts. In this study, we analyze simulations of the successive MJO events of November 2011. In the NAVGEM simulations, the effect of ocean boundary conditions are examined, including fixed sea surface temperature (SST), observed SST, and coupled SST with HYCOM. With fixed SST, the second MJO fails to develop, highlighting the importance of the ocean response in the ability to model successive MJO events. Next, we examine the dependence of the regional COAMPS skill on the global model forecast performance. It is found that even when using the inferior but computationally inexpensive uncoupled NAVGEM for LBCs, coupled COAMPS can accurately predict the successive MJO events. A well-resolved atmospheric Rossby wave that slowly propagates westward in the COAMPS domain contributes to increased predictive skill. Ocean coupling and the ability of the model to sufficiently warm the ocean during the convectively suppressed phase also appears to be critical. Last, while COAMPS exhibits a significant moist bias, the sign and magnitude of the vertical and horizontal moisture flux appear to be consistent with reanalysis, a necessary attribute of any model to be used in multiweek MJO prediction.

MID TERM SIMULATION OF SUSPENDED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND BED EVOLUTION FOR THE PATOS LAGOON ESTUARY

Worldwide harbors are settled inside estuarine areas due the protection function of these environments against oceanic waves and therefore are subjected to the hydrodynamic processes that provide morphodynamic changes in sediment distribution and bed evolution. Understanding the dynamic of sediments and the bed evolution at estuaries is of crucial importance on maintenance of fairways and harbor docks. We modeled using the finite element technique 1005 days of hydro and morphodynamic of the Patos Lagoon estuary, in order to identify the critical deposition areas inside the Rio grande harbor fairway. Therefore, a hydrodynamic model, TELEMAC 3D, and a morphodynamic, Sisyphe, were applied in order to acquire the bed evolution and sediment distribution of the area using different data sources for the oceanic, atmospherical and continental boundary conditions. The results, present that clay is being deposited at deeper parts of the channel. Bed evolution results indicate siltation/erosion process where silt/clay is being deposited. Sedimentation rates were calculated based on the bed evolution results as well. The validation procedure showed good representation by the models of the physical aspects of the environment.

Physical–Statistical Model for Summer Extreme Temperature Events over South Korea

AbstractExtreme temperature events have a significant impact on human life and property. Since the Korean Peninsula is affected by the high variability of the East Asian summer monsoon system, it is difficult to predict extreme temperature events skillfully. Here, we construct an empirical model to investigate the interannual variation of the frequency of summer extreme temperature events over South Korea by identifying predictors (explanatory variables) from ocean boundary conditions. The selected explanatory variables are sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the North Atlantic, the western North Pacific, and the eastern North Pacific. The cross-validated correlation skill of the statistical model constructed using a 23-yr dataset is estimated to be 0.77. A common feature that all three explanatory variables contain is the development of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Korean Peninsula. The North Atlantic SSTA predictor acts as a forcing mechanism for the generation of Rossby wave trains downstream, developing an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower and upper troposphere over the Korean Peninsula. The western North Pacific (WNP) warm SSTA predictor induces a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over the Korean Peninsula, resembling the Pacific–Japan teleconnection mechanism that represents the northward Rossby wave propagation over the western Pacific. Through air–sea interaction, the tripolar SSTA pattern in the eastern North Pacific representing the North Pacific gyre oscillation induces two opposite precipitation anomalies in the equatorial Maritime Continent and the Philippine Sea. These diabatic anomalies excite northward-propagating Rossby waves that form a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the WNP area and an anticyclonic anomaly over the Korean Peninsula.

Numerical study of Jiulongjiang river plume in the wet season 2015

Numerical simulation of the buoyant river plume in the Jiulongjiang River (JR) estuary, China, and its shelf in a wet season, April–September 2015, is constructed and applied to explore the evolution of the JR plume. The model is forced with realistic forcing, including river discharge, tides, wind stress, surface heat flux and freshwater flux, and ocean open boundary conditions. The simulation results agree well with in-situ and satellite observations. A Lagrangian particle tracking method is used to identify the freshwater pathway. It is found that the JR freshwater tends to escape the estuary-shelf system to the north from April to mid-August but to the south since late August. Based on a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis, four major JR patterns are identified. A northeastward plume pattern has the highest frequency of occurrence (44.8%), while a southwestward plume pattern has the second highest frequency of occurrence (33.9%). The other two patterns are transitional. The analysis of the alongshore and cross-shore momentum balances indicates that the JR plume is largely shaped by wind and background alongshore current. Particularly, the background coastal current plays an important role for the JR freshwater escape to the north in the Taiwan Strait.

Modeling larval dispersal and connectivity for Atlantic sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) in the Middle Atlantic Bight

Larval Atlantic sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) simulations in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) from 2006 to 2012 were performed to investigate annual and inter-annual dispersal and connectivity patterns among stock regions. These simulations used a circulation model based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and an individual-based larval model (IBM) that included larval behavior. The circulation model used realistic dynamical forcing (e.g., winds, tides, and open ocean boundary conditions), thermo-dynamical fluxes (e.g., solar radiations, sensible and latent heating), and hydrological forcing; the larval IBM included vertical swimming and sinking behaviour, temperature-dependent growth, and settlement. Simulated larvae that reach settlement size and suitable habitat in 45 days are considered ‘successful’, and two regions are considered ‘connected’ by larval dispersal when larvae successfully disperse from one region to the other. In general, simulated larval dispersal patterns varied seasonally (28% higher in September and October compared to May and June), among years (2007 through 2009 had 5% lower larval success during August and September compared to other years), and spatially, with larvae released from the northern regions like Long Island acting as a substantive larval source with 14% greater dispersal success and 15% greater connectivity with other regions than those released elsewhere. Over the seven years simulated, the MAB scallop stocks showed high rates of connectivity to regions to the south and more limited and variable connectivity to regions to the north. In species like sea scallops with limited adult mobility, larval dispersal supplies recruits, enables range expansion, and connects populations. Thus, appreciation of dispersal patterns are essential for fishery management of this economically valuable stock.

Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes

The oceans are a well-known source of natural variability in the climate system, although their ability to account for inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation extremes over land remains unclear. In this study, the role of sea-surface temperature (SST)-forcing is investigated for variability and trends in a range of commonly used temperature and precipitation extreme indices over the period 1959 to 2013. Using atmospheric simulations forced by observed SST and sea-ice concentrations (SIC) from three models participating in the Climate of the Twentieth Century Plus (C20C+) Project, results show that oceanic boundary conditions drive a substantial fraction of inter-annual variability in global average temperature extreme indices, as well as, to a lower extent, for precipitation extremes. The observed trends in temperature extremes are generally well captured by the SST-forced simulations although some regional features such as the lack of warming in daytime warm temperature extremes over South America are not reproduced in the model simulations. Furthermore, the models simulate too strong increases in warm day frequency compared to observations over North America. For extreme precipitation trends, the accuracy of the simulated trend pattern is regionally variable, and a thorough assessment is difficult due to the lack of locally significant trends in the observations. This study shows that prescribing SST and SIC holds potential predictability for extremes in some (mainly tropical) regions at the inter-annual time-scale.

Mean circulation of the Mid-Atlantic Bight from a climatological data assimilative model

The along-shelf momentum balance of the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) coastal ocean includes a significant contribution from the along-shelf gradient in sea level. This sea level tilt, of order 10−7, and other features of the mean sea level are not captured well in global mean dynamic topography (MDT) derived from hydrographic observations or satellite altimetry and gravity data, and is poorly represented in global and basin scale dynamical models. This is problematic for applications that would use coastal satellite altimeter data to estimate total water level above datum. We have produced a MDT for the MAB using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with 4-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation configured to obtain climatological annual and monthly mean results. The observations assimilated were a regional hydrographic climatology of temperature and salinity, and long-term mean velocity from HF-radar, shipboard ADCP, and current-meters. Assimilation adjusts the 3-dimensional ocean state, boundary conditions, and air-sea fluxes to minimize the model-data misfit. The assimilation of mean velocity data is vital to obtaining a realistic circulation result. The MDT exhibits a strong across-shelf sea level slope in geostrophic balance with the southwestward mean flow. The subtle along-shelf tilt is recovered and is relatively uniform throughout the MAB inside the 50 m isobath, but on the southern outer shelf it reverses sign and drives significant across-isobath flow, partially draining the southward mean transport. In the north, across-shelf flow is offshore in the surface and bottom Ekman layers, but largely balanced locally by inflow in the interior depth range.

Improved SST‐Precipitation Intraseasonal Relationships in the ECMWF Coupled Climate Reanalysis

AbstractThe European Centre for Medium‐range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has produced the ocean‐atmosphere coupled reanalysis for the twentieth century, CERA‐20C, following on from the similar but atmosphere‐only reanalysis ERA‐20C. Here we demonstrate the capability of CERA‐20C in producing more physically consistent ocean and atmosphere boundary conditions, by focusing on sea surface temperature (SST)‐precipitation intraseasonal relationships. CERA‐20C reproduces well the observed SST‐precipitation correlations, while these relationships are poorly represented in ERA‐20C, with the greatest discrepancies in the early 1900s. The improved relationships in CERA‐20C are due to intraseasonal improvements in SST that are not present in the external HadISST2 product. In CERA‐20C, SST‐precipitation relationships are slightly weaker in the 1900s than in the 2000s, mainly due to differences in the assimilated observation density. We also find that the coupled model initialized from CERA‐20C in the 2000s realistically simulates these relationships, while relaxing SST toward HadISST2 tends to damp these relationships. CERA‐20C has improved mean and variance in precipitation over ERA‐20C, but these are mostly due to improvements in the atmospheric model and not due to coupled feedbacks.