Occurrence Of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Research Articles

TCP Stratos for stratosphere based computing platforms

Stratosphere computing platforms (SCPs) benefit from free cooling but face challenges necessitating transmission control protocol (TCP) re-design. The redesign should be considered due to stratospheric gravity waves (SGWs), and sudden stratospheric warming (SSWs). SGWs, and SSWs disturb the wireless channel during SCPs packet communications. SCP packet transmission can be done using existing TCP variants at the expense of high packet loss as existing TCP variants do not consider SGWs, and SSWs. TCP variants designed for satellite links are not suitable as they do not explicitly consider the SSW, and SGW. Moreover, the use of SCPs in future internet is at a nascent stage. The presented research proposes a new TCP variant i.e., TCP Stratos. TCP Stratos incorporates a parameter transfer mechanism and comprises loss-based; and delay-based components. However, its window evolution considers the occurrence of SSWs, and SGWs. The performance benefit of the proposed approach is evaluated via MATLAB numerical simulation. MATLAB simulation has been used because of the consideration of the stratosphere. The modelling of the stratosphere in this case is challenging for conventional tools and frameworks. Performance evaluation shows that using TCP Stratos instead of existing TCP variants and improved TCP variants reduces the packet loss rate by an average of (7.1–23.1) % and (3.8–12.8) %, respectively. The throughput is enhanced by an average of (20.5–53)%, and (40.9–70)% when TCP Stratos is used instead of existing TCP variant and modified TCP variant, respectively.

A CMIP6 Analysis of Past and Future Arctic Winter Stratospheric Temperature Trends

AbstractReanalysis data reveal a weak warming trend in the midwinter Arctic stratosphere, contrary to the cooling expectation based on the greenhouse gas effect. This trend is also influenced by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Using Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we investigate temperature trends over a similar timescale as ERA5 and find that CMIP6 models can replicate the positive midwinter temperature trend in the mid‐lower stratosphere. However, when considering the multi‐model mean, this positive temperature trend is much weaker than ERA5. Extrapolating to the future, we find that the SSW‐driven positive temperature trend will likely not continue in the future based on the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 climate scenarios. Instead, the models project there will be widespread cooling throughout the Arctic winter stratosphere regardless of the occurrence of SSWs. Using a subsample of CMIP6 models which replicate the seasonality of the Arctic winter stratosphere most similarly to that of ERA5, we also find that the zonal wind strength during SSWs correlates the most with the temperature trends found there. However, trends in the zonal wind strength alone cannot account for the observed temperature trends among the CMIP6 models.

The Role of Vortex Preconditioning in Influencing the Occurrence of Strong and Weak Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in ERA5 Reanalysis

Abstract The anomalous stratospheric state favoring the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is usually referred to as vortex preconditioning. This study investigates the role of vortex preconditioning in triggering strong and weak SSWs by using ERA5 reanalysis data. Strong and weak SSWs are distinguished by the amplitude of zonal wind deceleration of sudden stratospheric deceleration events. The robust stratospheric anomalies before strong SSWs last longer compared to weak SSWs, accompanied by stronger amplification of stratospheric wave activity near the warming. The stratospheric anomalies before weak SSWs have two significant enhancement stages, with two processes of stratospheric wave amplification. Robust stratospheric anomalies generally appear before tropospheric wave events (TWEs) followed by the strong and weak SSWs, which are absent before TWEs without SSWs. Stratospheric meridional potential vorticity gradient events (SPVEs) are defined to represent the anomalous stratospheric state during vortex preconditioning. The SPVEs can effectively modulate the stratospheric upward wave activity. No strong lower-tropospheric wave forcing is seen for the composites of both strong and weak SSWs preceded by SPVEs. These SSWs account for about 59% of the total SSWs. Furthermore, about 23% of strong SSWs and 36% of weak SSWs are only preceded by SPVEs without TWEs, indicating the major role of vortex preconditioning in triggering these SSWs. The SPVEs can be caused by wave breaking in the surfzone or the enhanced polar vortex, while the SPVEs preceded by clear wave breaking may be more favorable to the occurrence of SSWs.

North Pacific and North Atlantic Jet Covariability and Its Relationship to Cool Season Temperature and Precipitation Extremes

Abstract Cool season (September–May) extreme temperature and precipitation events are frequently tied to surface cyclones and anticyclones, which are modulated on the synoptic scale by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. This study adopts a jet-centered approach to classify the prevailing large-scale flow pattern into jet regimes based on the leading modes of variability of the North Pacific jet (NPJ) and the North Atlantic jet (NAJ), respectively. The characteristics of these joint NPJ–NAJ regimes are subsequently examined using composite analysis to identify large-scale flow environments conducive to the occurrence of anomalous temperatures and precipitation across North America. The analysis reveals that composite large-scale flow environments associated with each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can be approximated as a linear combination of the separate large-scale environments that characterize each NPJ regime and NAJ regime independently. Furthermore, knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime provides more precision regarding the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of anomalous temperatures and precipitation than would be obtained from consideration of the NPJ or NAJ regime in isolation. The frequencies of each joint NPJ–NAJ regime can also be modulated by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings, with increased frequencies of an equatorward-shifted NAJ and a retracted NPJ during the 30-day period following a warming event. The results from the present study demonstrate that knowledge of the joint NPJ–NAJ regime exhibits the potential to inform forecasts of anomalous temperatures and precipitation at medium-range and subseasonal time scales. Significance Statement The development of cool season temperature and precipitation extremes are modulated by the state and evolution of the upper-tropospheric jet stream. Therefore, this study adopts a jet-centered approach to quantify the extent to which temperature and precipitation extremes over North America are related to the coevolution of the North Pacific and North Atlantic segments of the jet stream. The analysis demonstrates that the relative likelihood and spatial coverage of temperature and precipitation extremes varies significantly across North America based on the combined state of the North Pacific and North Atlantic jets. The jet-centered approach utilized in this study exhibits the potential to inform operational medium-range (6–10 day) and subseasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation across North America.

Impact of Increased Vertical Resolution in WACCM on the Climatology of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are a major mode of variability of the winter stratosphere. In recent years, climate models have improved their ability to simulate SSWs. However, the representation of the frequency and temporal distribution of SSWs in models depends on many factors and remains challenging. The vertical resolution of a model might be one such factor. Therefore, here we analyse the impact of increased vertical resolution on the simulation of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We compare two versions of the model, WACCM3.5 and WACCM4. We find that the frequency of occurrence of SSWs is improved in the newer version and closer to that obtained using reanalysis. Furthermore, simulations with a coupled ocean best reproduce the behaviour of temperature during these events. Increasing vertical resolution increases the number of occurrences; however, it does not produce significantly different results than standard resolution. WACCM4 also does not reproduce vortex split events well, generating far fewer of these than observed. Finally, the ratio between polar vortex splits and displacement events in the model is slightly better for non-ocean-coupled simulations. We conclude that, at least for WACCM4, the use of the high vertical resolution configuration is not cost-effective for the study of SSWs.

The dynamical evolution of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings of the Arctic winters in the past decade 2011\u20132021

In this study, we analyse the dynamical evolution, and identify the major warming (MW) and minor warming events of the past 11 Arctic winters (2010/11–2020/21). During the period, MW is found in 4 winters and is in January for 2012/13, 2018/19 and 2020/21 and in February for 2017/18. A major final warming is observed in the year 2015/16. The most severe MW occurred in the 2012/13 winter, for which a rise in temperature of about 30 K is found at 60° N. The investigation of tropospheric wave forcings for the period reveals that the MW in 2012/13 and 2017/18 is forced by the combined activity of waves 1 and 2, whereas the MW in 2018/19 and 2020/21 is driven by wave 1. Studies have shown that the frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) in the Arctic has been increasing since 1957/58, which is about 1.1 MWs/winter during 1998/99–2009/10. However, this frequency decreases to 0.36 MWs/winter in the period 2010/11–2020/21 and 0.74 MWs/winter in 1998/99–2020/21. An inverse relationship is observed between the period of occurrence of SSWs and total column ozone (TCO) in the Arctic for the past 11 winters (2010/11–2020/21). For instance, the temperature in the lower stratosphere in January, in which most warmings occur, shows a statistically significant high positive correlation (0.79) with the average TCO in January–March. Therefore, this study assists in understanding the relationship between inter-annual variability of ozone and the occurrence of SSWs.

Interaction between decadal-to-multidecadal oceanic variability and sudden stratospheric warmings.

Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are the most important phenomena of the wintertime boreal stratospheric variability. During SSWs, the polar temperature increases abruptly, and easterlies prevail in the stratosphere. Their effects extend farther from the polar stratosphere, affecting near-surface circulation. According to observations, SSWs are not equally distributed in time, with decades experiencing very few events, while others experiencing SSWs almost every winter. Some sources of this SSW multidecadal variability can be traced back to sea surface temperature changes. Here, we investigate the effects of Pacific decadal variability (PDV) and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on SSWs. We use for the first time a large ensemble of historical experiments to examine the modulation of the frequency, tropospheric precursors, and impact of SSWs by the PDV and AMV. We find a strong impact of the PDV on the occurrence of SSWs, with a higher SSW frequency for the positive phase of the PDV. This PDV influence is mediated by constructive interference of PDV anomalies with tropospheric stationary waves. The main effect of AMV is, instead, a modulation of the tropospheric response to SSWs, a finding that can be useful for predicting the tropospheric fingerprint of SSWs.

Analysis of Arctic Spring Ozone Anomaly in the Phases of QBO and 11-Year Solar Cycle for 1979–2017

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2017. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

Influence of High Latitude Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Tropical Weather: Observations From a 205 MHz Stratosphere Troposphere Radar and Surface Meteorological Parameters

AbstractThe study illustrates the evidence of dynamical coupling between the high‐latitude sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events that occurred in three consecutive winter seasons and the concomitant changes in the wind pattern in the lower stratosphere and troposphere observed with a state‐of‐the‐art 205 MHz stratosphere‐troposphere wind profiling Radar, located at Cochin (10.03°N, 77.33°E), a tropical station in southwest peninsular India. Associated with the occurrence of SSW, the tropical region experiences a change in zonal wind speed and direction at upper tropospheric altitudes after the central day of warming. The zonal wind in the troposphere also reversed its prevailing direction. Downward propagation of zonal wind during the SSW period is noticed, which is also supported by the reanalysis data set. In the lower troposphere, vertical wind experienced sudden fluctuations with varying amplitudes soon after the peak day of the SSW event. The surface meteorological parameters in an area (8°–12°N, 74°–78°E), centered at Cochin, from ERA‐Interim are also examined. An abrupt fall in outgoing longwave radiation, followed by convection and unusual rainfall in the tropical region 5–6 days before the peak of SSW events, is a unique and exciting feature noted in the study. Detailed analysis of the past 20 years of SSW events confirmed the observational evidence of unusual rainfall over the low latitude region related with the onset of SSW. Comprehensive observational and numeric modeling studies are needed to understand the mechanism for the SSW events in high latitudes and the associated convective activity and precipitation in the low latitude region.

Study of the Quasi 10‐Day Waves in the MLT Region During the 2018 February SSW by a Meteor Radar Chain

AbstractWe present a study of the quasi 10‐day waves (Q10DWs) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) during a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in February 2018 based on three meteor radars located at Mohe (MH, 53.5°N, 122.3°E), Beijing (BJ, 40.3°N, 116.2°E), and Wuhan (WH, 30.5°N, 116.6°E). The enhanced Q10DWs are observed in the meridional component at MH and in the zonal component at BJ and WH. In the meridional component, the monthly mean Q10DW amplitudes in February 2018 are greater than 10 m/s at MH but weaker than ∼7 m/s at BJ and WH. In the zonal component, monthly mean Q10DWs amplitudes are ∼15 m/s at BJ and WH but only 9 m/s at MH. These latitudinal differences of the Q10DWs in the MLT region are very likely due to the Q10DW activity in the lower atmosphere and the mean background winds. The strong southward winds might bring the wave energy to MH in the meridional component during the occurrence of SSW, while the enhanced Q10DWs in the zonal component at BJ and WH are likely associated with the strong Q10DWs in the lower atmosphere and weakening eastward winds after the central date of the SSW. The significance test indicates that the enhanced Q10DWs in the meridional wind of MH and in the zonal wind of WH are very likely affected by the SSW. In addition, nonlinear interactions between the Q10DWs and other planetary waves also modulate the variations in the MLT region at BJ during the SSW.

Does the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex Exhibit Signs of Preconditioning Prior to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings?

Abstract Characteristics of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex are examined using reanalysis data with dynamic time warping (DTW) and a clustering technique to determine whether the polar vortex exhibits canonical signs of preconditioning prior to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The DTW and clustering technique is used to locate time series motifs in vortex area, vortex edge-averaged PV gradients, and vortex edge-averaged wind speeds. Composites of the motifs reveal that prior to roughly 75% of SSWs, in the middle to upper stratosphere, PV gradients and wind speeds in the vortex edge region increase, and vortex area decreases. These signs agree with prior studies that discuss potential signals of preconditioning of the vortex. However, similar motifs are also found in a majority of years without SSWs. While such non-SSW motifs are strongly associated with minor warming signals apparent only in the middle and upper stratosphere, only roughly half of these can be associated with later “significant disturbances” (SDs) that do not quite meet the threshold for major SSWs. The median lead time for sharpening vortex edge PV gradients represented in the motifs prior to SSWs and SDs is ~25 days, while the median lead time for the vortex area and edge wind speeds is ~10 days. Overall, canonical signs of preconditioning do appear to exist prior to SSWs, but their existence in years without SSWs implies that preconditioning of the vortex may be an insufficient condition for the occurrence of SSWs.

Climatologies and long-term changes in mesospheric wind and wave measurements based on radar observations at high and mid latitudes

Abstract. We report on long-term observations of atmospheric parameters in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) made over the last 2 decades. Within this study, we show, based on meteor wind measurement, the long-term variability of winds, tides, and kinetic energy of planetary and gravity waves. These measurements were done between the years 2002 and 2018 for the high-latitude location of Andenes (69.3∘ N, 16∘ E) and the mid-latitude locations of Juliusruh (54.6∘ N, 13.4∘ E) and Tavistock (43.3∘ N, 80.8∘ W). While the climatologies for each location show a similar pattern, the locations differ strongly with respect to the altitude and season of several parameters. Our results show annual wind tendencies for Andenes which are toward the south and to the west, with changes of up to 3 m s−1 per decade, while the mid-latitude locations show smaller opposite tendencies to negligible changes. The diurnal tides show nearly no significant long-term changes, while changes for the semidiurnal tides differ regarding altitude. Andenes shows only during winter a tidal weakening above 90 km, while for the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR) an enhancement of the semidiurnal tides during the winter and a weakening during fall occur. Furthermore, the kinetic energy for planetary waves showed strong peak values during winters which also featured the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming. The influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the winds and tides is presented. The amplitudes of the mean winds exhibit a significant amplitude response for the zonal component below 82 km during summer and from November to December between 84 and 95 km at Andenes and CMOR. The semidiurnal tides (SDTs) show a clear 11-year response at all locations, from October to November.

Large‐Amplitude Quasi‐10‐Day Waves in the Middle Atmosphere During Final Warmings

AbstractGeopotential height measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder between 9‐ and 97‐km altitudes during 2004–2018 are used to examine long‐period (3–20 days) wave activity during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, with the primary focus on the response of normal mode Rossby waves in the middle atmosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Unusually large westward propagating waves with Zonal Wave Number 1 and period ∼10 days are observed at 55° latitude at the stratopause height (∼48 km) and above following final warmings of 2016, 2015, and 2005. In each case, large‐amplitude waves are observed for the duration of two to three wave cycles. Characteristics of the waves are in conformity with the second antisymmetric Rossby normal mode of Zonal Wave Number 1, or the quasi‐10‐day wave. The growth rate of the waves is significantly greater than the classical normal mode in the upper stratosphere (approximately 30–50 km) where instability conditions are met, indicating the amplification or excitation of the waves in that region. The response of the quasi‐10‐day wave during midwinter SSWs, and also during the spring transition without an SSW, is not as obvious as the wave response during final warmings. The results suggest that not only the occurrence of SSW but also the seasonal timing of SSW is an important factor for the transient variability of the quasi‐10‐day wave in the middle atmosphere.

Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Potential Vorticity Intrusions during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract The intrusion of lower-stratospheric extratropical potential vorticity into the tropical upper troposphere in the weeks surrounding the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) is examined. The analysis reveals that SSW-related PV intrusions are significantly stronger, penetrate more deeply into the tropics, and exhibit distinct geographic distributions compared to their climatological counterparts. While climatological upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric (UTLS) PV intrusions are generally attributed to synoptic-scale Rossby wave breaking, it is found that SSW-related PV intrusions are governed by planetary-scale wave disturbances that deform the extratropical meridional PV gradient maximum equatorward. As these deformations unfold, planetary-scale wave breaking along the edge of the polar vortex extends deeply into the subtropical and tropical UTLS. In addition, the material PV deformations also reorganize the geographic structure of the UTLS waveguide, which alters where synoptic-scale waves break. In combination, these two intrusion mechanisms provide a robust explanation describing why displacement and split SSWs—or, more generally, anomalous stratospheric planetary wave events—produce intrusions with unique geographic distributions: displacement SSWs have a single PV intrusion maximum over the Pacific Ocean, while split SSWs have intrusion maxima over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is also shown that the two intrusion mechanisms involve distinct time scales of variability, and it is highlighted that they represent an instantaneous and direct link between the stratosphere and troposphere. This is in contrast to higher-latitude stratosphere–troposphere coupling that occurs indirectly via wave–mean flow feedbacks.

Ionospheric variability over Indian low latitude linked with the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming

AbstractIn this paper, we analyze radar observations of E × B drift and plasma irregularities, ionosonde observations of E and F layer parameters including spread F, and magnetic field observations made from Indian low latitudes linked with the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. E × B drift variations presented here are the first of their kind from the Indian sector as far as the effect of SSW is concerned. Difference of magnetic fields observed from the equator and low‐latitude (∆H) and E × B drift show linear relation, and both show remarkably large positive values in the morning and negative values in the afternoon exhibiting semidiurnal behavior. Remarkable changing patterns in the critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2) and F3 layer (foF3) were observed after the occurrence of SSW. Large variations with quasi 16 day periodicity were observed in ∆H, foF2, and foF3. Both semidiurnal and quasi 16 day wave modulation observed after the 2009 SSW event are consistent with those reported earlier. We also noted quasi 6 day variations in ∆H and foF2 soon after the SSW commencement, not much reported before. During the counterelectrojet events linked with the SSW event, while equatorial Es (Esq) disappeared as expected, there were no blanketing Es (Esb), a finding not reported and discussed earlier. Esb was also not formed at the off‐equatorial location, indicating the absence of required vertical wind shear, but E region plasma irregularities were observed by the ionosonde and radar with a close relationship between the two. Weak F region irregularities were observed in the postmidnight hours, and case studies suggest the possible role of SSW‐related background electric field in the manifestation of postmidnight F region irregularities.

Stratospheric Variability in Twentieth-Century CMIP5 Simulations of the Met Office Climate Model: High Top versus Low Top

Abstract An examination is made of stratospheric climate, circulation, and variability in configurations of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2 (HadGEM2) differing only in stratospheric resolution and the placement of the model lid. This is made in the context of historical reconstructions of twentieth-century climate. A reduction in the westerly bias in the Northern Hemisphere polar night jet is found in the high-top model. The authors also find significant differences in the expression of tropical stratospheric variability, finding improvements in the high-top model for the presence of the quasi-biennial oscillation, for tropical upwelling consistent with interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data, and for interannual changes in stratospheric water vapor concentration comparable to satellite observations. Further differences are seen at high latitudes during winter in the frequency of occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). The occurrence rate of SSWs in the high-top simulations, (7.2 ± 0.5) decade−1, is statistically consistent with observations, (6.0 ± 1.0) decade−1, whereas they are one-third as frequent in the low-top simulations, (2.5 ± 0.5) decade−1. Furthermore, the structure of the timing of winter final warmings is only captured in the high-top model. A similar characterization for the time evolution of the width of the tropical upper troposphere is found between model configurations. It is concluded that an adequate representation of the stratosphere is required to capture the important modes of tropical and extratropical stratospheric variability in models.

Transient Tropospheric Forcing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Abstract The amplitude of upward-propagating tropospherically forced planetary waves is known to be of first-order importance in producing sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). This forcing amplitude is observed to undergo strong temporal fluctuations. Characteristics of the resulting transient forcing leading to SSWs are studied in reanalysis data and in highly truncated simple models of stratospheric wave–mean flow interaction. It is found in both the reanalysis data and the simple models that SSWs are preferentially generated by transient forcing of sufficiently long time scales (on the order of 1 week or longer). The time scale of the transient forcing is found to play a stronger role in producing SSWs than the strength of the forcing. In the simple models it is possible to fix the amplitude of the tropospheric forcing but to vary the time scale of the forcing. The resulting frequency of occurrence of SSWs shows dramatic reductions for decreasing forcing time scales.

Dynamical amplification of the stratospheric solar response simulated with the Chemistry-Climate Model LMDz-Reprobus

The impact of the 11-year solar cycle on the stratosphere and, in particular, on the polar regions is investigated using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model (CCM) LMDz-Reprobus. The annual solar signal clearly shows a stratospheric response largely driven by radiative and photochemical processes, especially in the upper stratosphere. A month-by-months analysis suggests that dynamical feedbacks play an important role in driving the stratospheric response on short timescales. CCM outputs on a 10 days frequency indicate how, in the northern hemisphere, changes in solar heating in the winter polar stratosphere may influence the upward propagation of planetary waves and thus their deposition of momentum, ultimately modifying the strength of the mean stratospheric overtuning circulation at middle and high latitudes. The model results emphasize that the main temperature and wind responses in the northern hemisphere can be explained by a different timing in the occurrence of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) that are caused by small changes in planetary wave propagation depending on solar conditions. The differences between simulations forced by different solar conditions indicate successive positive and negative responses during the course of the winter. The solar minimum simulation generally indicates a slightly stronger polar vortex early in the winter while the solar maximum simulation experiences more early SSWs with a stronger wave-mean flow interaction and reduced zonal wind at mid-latitudes in the upper stratosphere. The opposite response is observed during mid-winter, in February, with more SSWs simulated for solar minimum conditions while solar maximum conditions are associated with a damped planetary wave activity and a reinforced vortex after the initial stratospheric warming period. In late winter, the response is again reversed, as noticed in the temperature differences, with major SSW mostly observed in the solar maximum simulation and less intense final warmings simulated for solar minimum conditions. Due to the non-zonal nature of SSWs, the stratospheric response presents high regional variability during the northern hemisphere winter. As a result, successive positive and negative responses are observed during the course of the winter.

Middle atmosphere temperature trend and solar cycle revealed by long-term Rayleigh lidar observations

[1] The long-term temperature profile data sets obtained by Rayleigh lidars at three different northern latitudes within the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change were used to derive the middle atmosphere temperature trend and response to the 11 year solar cycle. The lidars were located at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (MLO, 19.5°N); the Table Mountain Facility, California (TMF, 34.4°N); and the Observatoire de Haute Provence, France (OHP, 43.9°N). A stratospheric cooling trend of 2–3 K/decade was found for both TMF and OHP, and a trend of ≤0.5 ± 0.5 K/decade was found at MLO. In the mesosphere, the trend at TMF (3–4 K/decade) was much larger than that at both OHP and MLO (<1 K/decade). The lidar trends agree well with earlier satellite and rocketsonde trends in the stratosphere, but a substantial discrepancy was found in the mesosphere. The cooling trend in the upper stratosphere at OHP during 1981–1994 (∼2–3 K/decade) was much larger than that during 1995–2009 (≤0.8 K/decade), coincident with the slightly increasing upper stratospheric ozone density after 1995. Significant temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle was found. The correlation was positive in both the stratosphere and mesosphere at MLO and TMF. At OHP a wintertime negative response in the upper stratosphere and a positive response in the middle mesosphere were observed during 1981–1994, but the opposite behavior was found during 1995–2009. This behavior may not be a direct solar cycle response at all but is likely related to an apparent response to decadal variability (e.g., volcanoes, modulated random occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings) that is more complex.

The Influence of the Solar Cycle and QBO on the Late-Winter Stratospheric Polar Vortex

Abstract A statistical analysis of 51 years of NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data is conducted to isolate the separate effects of the 11-yr solar cycle (SC) and the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratosphere in late winter (February–March). In a four-group [SC maximum (SC-max) versus minimum (SC-min) and east-phase versus west-phase QBO] linear discriminant analysis, the state of the westerly phase QBO (wQBO) during SC-min emerges as a distinct least-perturbed (and coldest) state of the stratospheric polar vortex, statistically well separated from the other perturbed states. Relative to this least-perturbed state, the SC-max and easterly QBO (eQBO) each independently provides perturbation and warming as does the combined perturbation of the SC-max–eQBO. All of these results (except the eQBO perturbation) are significant at the 95% confidence level as confirmed by Monte Carlo tests; the eQBO perturbation is marginally significant at the 90% level. This observational result suggests a conceptual change in understanding the interaction between solar cycle and QBO influences: while previous results imply a more substantial interaction, even to the extent that the warming due to SC-max is reversed to cooling by the eQBO, results suggest that the SC-max and eQBO separately warm the polar stratosphere from the least-perturbed state. While previous authors emphasize the importance of segregating the data according to the phase of the QBO, here the same polar warming by the solar cycle is found regardless of the phase of the QBO. The polar temperature is positively correlated with the SC, with a statistically significant zonal mean warming of approximately 4.6 K in the 10–50-hPa layer in the mean and 7.2 K from peak to peak. This magnitude of the warming in winter is too large to be explainable by UV radiation alone. The evidence seems to suggest that the polar warming in NH late winter during SC-max is due to the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), as noted previously by other authors. This hypothesis is circumstantially substantiated here by the similarity between the meridional pattern and timing of the warming and cooling observed during the SC-max and the known pattern and timing of SSWs, which has the form of large warming over the pole and small cooling over the midlatitudes during mid- and late winter. The eQBO is also known to precondition the polar vortex for the onset of SSWs, and it has been pointed out by previous authors that SSWs can occur during eQBO at all stages of the solar cycle. The additional perturbation due to SC-max does not double the frequency of occurrence of SSWs induced by the eQBO. This explains why the SC-max/eQBO years are not statistically warmer than either the SC-max/wQBO or SC minimum/eQBO years. The difference between two perturbed (warm) states (e.g., SC-max/eQBO versus SC-min/eQBO or SC-max/eQBO versus SC-max/wQBO), is small (about 0.3–0.4 K) and not statistically significant. It is this small difference between perturbed states, both warmer than the least-perturbed state, that in the past has been interpreted either as a reversal of SC-induced warming or as a reversal of QBO-induced warming.