Occurrence Of Major Earthquakes Research Articles

Variasi spasial dan temporal nilai-b pada gempa bumi di wilayah Sulawesi Tengah, Gorontalo, dan sekitarnya menggunakan metode robust fitting

This study discusses variation in seismic and tectonic modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for earthquakes in the Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo, and surrounding areas using the Robust Fitting Method (RFM) with the weight function of Tukey’s bisquare. The declustering process on earthquake data is carried out using the Reasenberg equation. The values for both parameters are analyzed spatially and temporally. In the spatial analysis, the research area is divided into 43 grids. In the temporal analysis, the research area is divided into zone A and zone B. The data grouping is done using a sliding time window method, i.e., grouping 50 earthquake catalogs with 5 overlapping events. The results according to spatial analysis show that the b-values range from 0.38 – 1.19. Areas with low b-values (0.38 – 0.7) occur around the Palu-Koro Fault, i.e., Palu city, Malacca strait, and to Toli-Toli, and also in the northern region of Gorontalo, i.e., the subduction plate of the Sulawesi Sea. Meanwhile, high b-values (0.71 – 1.19) are in the Tomini Bay area which is an area with frequent occurrence of earthquakes but has the small potential to generate large-scale earthquakes. The results of the temporal b-value estimation in zones A and B range between values of 0.38 - 1.25. The b-values appear to decrease before the occurrence of major earthquakes in 1996 and 2018 in zone A. The b-values decreased before the occurrence of major earthquakes in 1990, 1991, 2000, and 2008 in zone B. However, the b-values cannot be used as a precursor before the big earthquake in 1997.
 Keywords: Tukey’s bisquare, Reasenberg equation, Gutenberg-Richter relationship, sliding time window, Robust Fitting Method. MSC2020: 86A15

A Major Medieval Earthquake on the Main Köpetdag (Kopeh Dagh) Fault, Turkmenistan

ABSTRACTThe Main Köpetdag fault (MKDF) of Turkmenistan is one of the longest (≈500 km) and the most rapidly straining (9.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) faults of the Arabia–Eurasia collision zone, and yet, in contrast to adjacent parts of Turkmenistan and Iran, it has little in the way of observed seismicity. Field observations indicate a fresh paleorupture along an ≈100 km long section of the MKDF with abundant streams offset across it. We use WorldView-2 optical satellite imagery to measure geomorphic offsets and compile them into a cumulative offset probability density (COPD) function. The COPD yields two peaks in offset density at 7.5 ± 1.5 and 12.5 ± 1.5 m, when considering the highest and the lowest quality measurements, whereas the medium-quality measurements present a single peak at 9 ± 3 m. We are unable to separate peaks into distinct events when exploring the contributions of offset measurements along strike that have significant variability. The paleorupture displaces archaeological remains, including extensive field boundaries of likely medieval age, and a paleoseismic trench brackets the age of the most recent displacement at 600–800 yr B.P. From our measurements of displacement, we estimate that the most recent paleoearthquake had a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.6 ± 0.4 and yet is missing from earthquake records in nearby Iran, indicating that the paucity of historical earthquakes in Turkmenistan may be misleading. The Baharly, Döwgala, and Gökdepe segments of the MKDF, which extend eastward toward Aşgabat, do not show fresh surface expression. Infrared-stimulated luminescence ages of 3.4 ± 0.5 and 2.5 ± 0.2 ka from a river-cutting exposure along the Baharly segment predate the most recent paleorupture. We conclude that individual segments of the MKDF are capable of rupturing in major (Mw>7.0) earthquakes, with ends of individual ruptures possibly controlled by segment boundaries. The occurrence of major earthquakes and rapid slip rate suggests that the MKDF constitutes a hazard to a populated region of Turkmenistan and northeast Iran.

Особенности сейсмического процесса в западной части Алеутской субдукционной зоны и их возможная связь с климатическими изменениями в Арктике

In the second half of the XX century, there was a pronounced increase in the average annual temperature in the troposphere surface layer of the Russian Arctic region, which led to a scaling-up in the risks of natural disasters associated with the cryolithosphere degradation. Modern integrated studies of the Arctic have revealed a significant influence of geodynamic processes on the permafrost state. Previously, a seismogenic-trigger mechanism of the occurrence of climate warming phases in the Arctic proved to be possible due to strong mechanical disturbances of the marginal region of the Arctic lithosphere, caused by major earthquakes in the Aleutian subduction zone. The authors discuss the features of the seismic cycle in the Aleutian subduction zone, characterized the presence of a pronounced tangential component of the convergence vector of lithospheric plates. The study shows that the orientation of the plate convergence vector relative to subduction zone axis can have a significant impact on the preparation and occurrence of major earthquakes in subduction zones. In particular, the analysis of the seismic activity occurring in the western part of the Aleutian island arc showed that the seismic cycles here are shorter than in the eastern part of the arc. The authors revealed that major earthquakes, repeated in the same areas of the western part of the Aleutian subduction zone, differ both in magnitude and foci length. Taking into account the oblique subduction setting, the authors propose a keyboard model for the generation of major subduction-associated earthquakes as a mechanism potentially capable to explain the reduction in the seismic cycle duration and noticeable differences in the spatial extent and the foci localization of seismic events with similar magnitudes observed in the same segment of the western half of the Aleutian subduction zone.

Teleseismic body waves extracted from ambient noise cross correlation between F-net and ChinArray phase II

The vertical-vertical noise cross-correlation functions (NCFs) between two seismic arrays, the Japan F-net and ChinArray phase II, are calculated using continuous recordings during 2013–2016. After array interferometry to obtain bin stacked NCFs, clear body waves are retrieved at different period bands. Teleseismic direct P waves for distance 15–40 degrees are observed between short period 3–10 ​s while core reflected PcP/ScS waves are more obvious for longer period 30–60s. The signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) of the short period P waves reaches its highest point with bin widths around 20 ​km while SNRs of PcP and ScS increase slowly with bin width. All those body waves demonstrate clear directivity with strong signals traveling from the east. The time-lapse SNR variations for the PcP and ScS show correlation with the occurrence of major earthquakes, while the P-wave SNR demonstrates seasonal variations with additional contribution from major earthquakes. The present results suggest teleseismic body waves can be retrieved through bin stacking, though further processing is still necessary to obtain finer waveforms such as P wave triplications.

Relocation of public healthcare network of a large city in the event of a major earthquake: a combined methodological analysis

PurposeThe aim of this research is to improve the responsiveness of the healthcare network of a large city to a major earthquake, by applying a combined methodology to reduce human suffering and death.Design/methodology/approachScenario analysis, a non-linear programming (NLP) model, and the analytical network process are sequentially applied to find the “best location pattern”.FindingsWhen considering the occurrence of major earthquakes in cities with high population density, as a rule of thumb, the location of healthcare facilities should prioritize areas characteristically overcrowded and/or that were built based on poor standards of seismic resistance.Research limitations/implicationsThe proposed research design does not include a cost criterion in the set of decision variables involved. Furthermore, the results derived from the NLP-model are restricted by the input simulation data.Practical implicationsThe performance of the “best location pattern” is compared with the current location of healthcare facilities in terms of their distances to the affected zones. Metropolis areas worldwide with similar conditions to the city under consideration could be benefited from applying the general methodology for relocation of healthcare facilities described in this research.Originality/valueThis research implements a diverse combination of methodologies to examine the problem of relocating of healthcare facilities in a large city in the wake of an assumed earthquake. In addition, to the best of authors' knowledge, this is the first study of its kind that proposes improvements in the responsiveness of the healthcare facilities' network in the city in question.

Probabilistic Modeling of Earthquake Interevent Times in Different Regions of Pakistan

Pakistan and its surroundings are among the most seismically active regions in the world. Occurrence of major earthquakes in Pakistan is a real hazard for life. In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the seismic hazard in terms of earthquake occurrence conditional probabilities in different zones of Pakistan. We assumed that the temporal data of earthquakes, that occurred in different regions of Pakistan follow a certain probability distribution. In present study, the 10 probability models that include the exponential, gamma, generalized Pareto, inverse Pareto, kappa, log-logistic, lognormal, Pareto, transformed gamma and Weibull are used to analyze the interevent times of the earthquakes with $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ in different regions of Pakistan. In current study, Pakistan territory has been divided into five different seismic zones based on their tectonic settings. Parameters of the considered distributions are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method using the reviewed earthquake catalogue compiled by Centre for Earthquake Studies (CES), Pakistan. The best suitable model in each seismic zone is selected through various model selection criteria. The results show that the log-logistic distribution provides the best representation of earthquake temporal data of plate convergence zones; while the gamma distribution best explains the temporal seismicity of other tectonic regimes including the transform plate boundary, fold and thrust belts and stable plains. The most suitable gamma and log-logistic models are used for the earthquake occurrence probabilities in different regions of Pakistan. The highest $$(>96\%)$$ and the least $$(>30\%)$$ earthquake occurrence conditional probabilities are respectively observed for Zones I and V among five seismic zones for different combinations of elapsed time $$(\tau )$$ and time interval $$(\upsilon )$$ . The estimated probability of $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ event reaches (60–98)% in next (3–9) years time interval without any elapsed time $$(\tau =0)$$ in Zones II to IV (the time periods corresponding to 3–9 years time interval are 2016–2022, 2020–2026 and 2019–2025 in Zones I, II and III respectively) since the last event occurrence time in each of these seismic zone. The mean values of the interevent time for an earthquake occurrence of $$M_{w}\ge 5.5$$ in Zone-I to Zone-V are respectively calculated as 0.90, 1.78, 4.52, 3.35 and 11.76 years, respectively. The results of the present study indicate that Zone-I has potential capability of producing an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or higher in next 3 years (2019–2021) time interval since the last event occurrence in May 2018. The earthquake hazard curves associated with earthquake occurrence probabilities are also developed in order to understand the current and future earthquake mechanism in the study region.

Active transform faults in the Gulf of Guinea: insights from geophysical data and implications for seismic hazard assessment

The seismotectonics of Western Africa show the occurrence of major earthquakes (e.g., 1636 southwestern Ghana, 1855 offshore Monrovia, 1939 offshore Accra, and 1983 Gaoual-Guinea) and prominent offshore transform faults. However, there is no analysis that links the continental active tectonics with the oceanic fault zones of the Gulf of Guinea. We study the active tectonics by firstly mapping the main transform faults using a combination of bathymetric, gravimetric, and magnetic data. The data analysis associates regional seismicity (historical and instrumental) with focal mechanisms as extracted from the recently published seismotectonic map of Africa. We identify active transform faults, the Chain (CFZ), Romanche (RFZ), Saint Paul (SPFZ), and Arkhangelskiy (AFZ) fault zones. We also calculate strain rates on these faults from Late Cretaceous (–85 Ma) to present time using paleomagnetic data and infer slip rates from the seismic moment data. The strain rates show a first stable trend around 2 cm/year and then accelerate to 4 cm/year in the last 10 million years. The comparison of Late Quaternary strain rates with geodetic strain rates shows an accumulation of seismic energy that could lead to the initiation of an Mw 7–7.5 earthquakes on the Saint Paul transform fault. Our seismotectonic analysis clearly links oceanic and continental tectonics, with about a 20°–30° anticlockwise fault trend rotation for CFZ, RFZ, and SPFZ. The potential for the occurrence of large earthquakes in the Gulf of Guinea should be taken into account for a realistic regional seismic and tsunami hazard of the Gulf of Guinea.

Earthquakes in the Garhwal Himalaya of the Central Seismic Gap: A Study of Historical and Present Seismicity and Their Implications to the Seismotectonics

The historical and the present seismicity catalogues of the Garhwal Himalaya have been studied for their spatio-temporal variations and their implications on the seismotectonics of the region. The Micro-Seismicity, Fractal dimensions (Dc) and Frequency Magnitude Distribution (b-value) coupled with the available literature on geology, geomorphology and geophysics have been used to derive the seismotectonics and stress level changes in the region. The seismic cross sections for the relocated micro-seismicity, focal mechanisms and the swath profiles (for the presence of Physiographic Transition 2 (PT2) at the foothill of the Higher Himalaya) indicate the constant presence of the Mid-Crustal Ramp (MCR) in the detachment plane and its active seismogenic nature. The comparison of this scenario suggests the constant presence of seismogenically active MCR structure throughout the Central Seismic Gap. The seismic cross sections further reveal that the sensu stricto Main Central Thrust (Munsiari Thrust) is also a site of generation of the micro-seismicity in few segments due to its reactivation by thrusting along the MCR. The high fractal dimension value (Dc = 1.47) suggests the heterogeneous nature of the region, owing to the presence of local faults and transverse tectonics. The high stress accumulation in the Garhwal Himalaya with low b value (b = 0.70) suggests the high probability of occurrence of a larger or greater earthquake in the near-future. Further, the study also reveals that the 2011 Chamoli earthquake of M 5.0, preceded by a quiescence period of nearly a year shows different stress levels before and after its occurrence, which is well constrained with the increased moderate earthquake activity around the Chamoli region. This increased seismic activity and stress conditions in the Chamoli region suggest the high possibility of the occurrence of major earthquakes, hence the study recommend for a detailed seismic hazard evaluation of the region.

Re-estimate of Major Earthquake Activity in Surrounding Areas after the MS 6.6 Jinghe Earthquake in Xinjiang, 2017

According to theory, earthquakes may produce disturbances in surrounding areas and affect the major earthquake occurrence rate of surrounding faults. The MS 6.6 Jinghe Earthquake on 9th August, 2017 occurred in the Tienshan Seismic Belt where there is much tectonic activity and many strong earthquakes occur. The impact of this earthquake on major earthquake activity of surrounding areas is worth studying. This paper attempts to combine two models: the Brownian passage-time (BPT) model, which describes the quasi-periodic recurrence of major earthquakes, and the Coulomb Failure Stress model, which describes rock failure on faults. The amount of change in the rate of major earthquake occurrence caused by a nearby earthquake was calculated, and changes in major earthquake activity in the surrounding areas after the Jinghe Earthquake were re-estimated. There are few differences in major earthquake occurrence rate change by stress disturbances calculated with the BPT model or the Coulomb Failure Stress model. Calculation results are consistent with actual earthquake cases. The 2017 Jinghe Earthquake increased major earthquake activity on the Boluokenu Fault and Yili Basin North Fault, and the expected major earthquake recurrence times of the two faults were advanced by 11 years and 59 years, respectively. Conclusions of this paper provide a reference for time-dependent seismic hazard assessments in related areas.

Trend of variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux during the period 1950-2014 and its association with the occurrence of major earthquakes

Trend of variable component of 10.7 cm solar flux during the period 1950-2014 and its association with the occurrence of major earthquakes

Association of occurrence of major earthquakes throughout the globe with variable component of the green line Fe XIV 530.3 nm during 1950–2014

The paper presents the variation of variable component of coronal index for two period 1950–1962 and 1963–2014 and its association with major earthquakes (magnitude ≥6.0 Richter scale) for the same two periods is also offered. Analysis shows that frequency of major earthquake increases with the decrease in variable component of coronal index and vice versa. Possible explanation is also presented.

Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) for monitoring earthquake prone areas by satellite TIR observations: The case of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Taiwan)

For more than 13years a multi-temporal data-analysis method, named Robust Satellite Techniques (RST), has been being applied to satellite Thermal InfraRed (TIR) monitoring of seismically active regions. It gives a clear definition of a TIR anomaly within a validation/confutation scheme devoted to verify if detected anomalies can be associated or not to the time and location of the occurrence of major earthquakes. In this scheme, the confutation part (i.e. verifying if similar anomalies do not occur in the absence of a significant seismic activity) assumes a role even much important than the usual validation component devoted to verify the presence of anomalous signal transients before (or in association with) specific seismic events. Since 2001, RST approach has been being used to study tens of earthquakes with a wide range of magnitudes (from 4.0 to 7.9) occurred in different continents and in various geo-tectonic settings.In this paper such a long term experience is exploited in order to give a quantitative definition of a significant sequence of TIR anomalies (SSTA) in terms of the required space–time continuity constraints (persistence), identifying also the different typologies of known spurious sequences of TIR anomalies that have to be excluded from the following validation steps. On the same basis, taking also into account for the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation between TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability – CSEP – Project) have been defined to drive the validation process. In this work, such an approach is applied for the first time to a long-term dataset of night-time GMS-5/VISSR (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite/Visible and Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer) TIR measurements, comparing SSTAs and earthquakes with M>4 which occurred in a wide area around Taiwan, in the month of September of different years (from 1995 to 2002). In this dataset the Chi-Chi earthquake (MW=7.6) which occurred on September 20, 1999 represents the major, but not unique, event. The analysis shows that all identified SSTAs occur in the pre-fixed space–time window around (in terms of time and location) earthquakes with M>4. The false positive rate remains zero even if only earthquakes with M>4.5 are considered. In the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake, 3 SSTAs were identified (all within the established space–time correlation window), one of them appearing about 2weeks before and very close to the epicentre of the earthquake just along the associated tectonic lineaments. The wide considered space–time window, together with the high seismicity of the considered area, surely positively conditioned the achieved results, so that further analyses should be carried out by using longer datasets and different geographic areas. However, also considering the coincidence with other (possible) precursor phenomena, independently reported (particularly within the iSTEP project) at the time of the Chi Chi earthquake, achieved results seem already sufficient (at least) to qualify TIR anomalies (identified by RST) among the parameters to be considered in the framework of a multi-parametric approach to a time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH).

Aseismic slip and seismogenic coupling along the central San Andreas Fault

AbstractWe use high‐resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar‐ and GPS‐derived observations of surface displacements to derive the first probabilistic estimates of fault coupling along the creeping section of the San Andreas Fault, in between the terminations of the 1857 and 1906 magnitude 7.9 earthquakes. Using a fully Bayesian approach enables unequaled resolution and allows us to infer a high probability of significant fault locking along the creeping section. The inferred discreet locked asperities are consistent with evidence for magnitude 6+ earthquakes over the past century in this area and may be associated with the initiation phase of the 1857 earthquake. As creeping segments may be related to the initiation and termination of seismic ruptures, such distribution of locked and creeping asperities highlights the central role of the creeping section on the occurrence of major earthquakes along the San Andreas Fault.

Determination of New Load and Resistance Factors for Reinforced Concrete Structural Members

In this study, a procedure for the determination of new load and resistance factors for reinforced concrete structural members is proposed in view of the fact that the design practice in Turkey has changed after the occurrence of major earthquakes. The implementation of the procedure is carried out for the shear failure mode of reinforced concrete beams subjected to dead and live load combination. First, the statistical parameters for the quantification of uncertainty involved in the design variables, modeling and loads are assessed based on the available data and knowledge. Then, the level of risk related with the current design practice is quantified in terms of the reliability index, β. Target reliability index βT, is selected in view of the β values computed for the current design practice. By using the resulting target reliability index βT, the load and resistance factors are computed based on the Advanced First Order Second Moment Method.

Associating an ionospheric parameter with major earthquake occurrence throughout the world

With time, ionospheric variation analysis is gaining over lithospheric monitoring in serving precursors for earthquake forecast. The current paper highlights the association of major (Ms ≥ 6.0) and medium (4.0 ≤ Ms < 6.0) earthquake occurrences throughout the world in different ranges of the Ionospheric Earthquake Parameter (IEP) where ‘Ms’ is earthquake magnitude on the Richter scale. From statistical and graphical analyses, it is concluded that the probability of earthquake occurrence is maximum when the defined parameter lies within the range of 0–75 (lower range). In the higher ranges, earthquake occurrence probability gradually decreases. A probable explanation is also suggested.

Seismic Electric Signals: An additional fact showing their physical interconnection with seismicity

Natural time analysis reveals novel dynamical features hidden behind time series in complex systems. By applying it to the time series of earthquakes, we find that the order parameter of seismicity exhibits a unique change approximately at the date(s) at which Seismic Electric Signals (SES) activities have been reported to initiate. In particular, we show that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity in Japan exhibits a clearly detectable minimum approximately at the time of the initiation of the SES activity observed by Uyeda and coworkers almost two months before the onset of the volcanic-seismic swarm activity in 2000 in the Izu Island region, Japan. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that, well before the occurrence of major earthquakes, anomalous changes are found to appear almost simultaneously in two independent datasets of different geophysical observables (geoelectrical measurements, seismicity). In addition, we show that these two phenomena are also linked closely in space.

Seismicity Pattern in Southern Africa from 1986 to 2009

Study of Seismicity pattern in the Southern Africa from 1986 to 2009 was undertaken natural earthquakes with body wave magnitude, Mb ? 3.0. The earthquake seismology, quantification, statistics of the region was studied. Statistical analyses such as measured central tendencies and spread, pictorial representations (histogram) and time series (moving average) were employed. The Gutenberg-Richter analyses was carried out and this gave a=5.75 and b=1.23 for the two constants. The result shows that the Southern Africa region which is located in an intraplate earthquake belt is generally characterized by small and minor earthquakes with low spatial spread. The seismic events were found to be irregular. The probability of occurrence of major earthquakes in this region in the nearest future was discovered to be low. However, a large earthquake could take place due to uncertainties associated with earthquake predictions, especially in intraplate regions.

Risk perception and social vulnerability to earthquakes in Grenoble (French Alps)

The city of Grenoble (French Alps) is characterized by a rather low seismicity as well as a tectonic context prone to the occurrence of major earthquakes (M = 6). The population is therefore not used to experiencing earthquakes: this can lead to a low culture of risk, which may imply a rather high vulnerability of the population. Consequently, it is necessary to better evaluate vulnerability and to find ways of reducing it. Social vulnerability is usually evaluated through surveys focusing on residential population. When these studies are carried out by geographers, they sometimes take into account a spatial dimension by mapping the results. Here, a temporal dimension is also integrated and residents as well as users of the city, i.e. users with any activity as working, shopping, having leisure time, etc. are surveyed. The method consists in building a social and spatial representative sample through three dimensions: social (age), temporal (hour of the day) and spatial (place of residence or activity). For this reason the household travel survey was used to build the sample. The risk perception survey shows that only 16% of the sample feel exposed to earthquakes. The youngest, most qualified, the students and working people seem to better know the adequate safety measures to be taken in case of an earthquake. Besides classic statistical analyses, the answers to the questionnaire were synthesized into a vulnerability index. Once more, the most qualified are characterized by a lower vulnerability. The cartography of the survey results provides interesting conclusions for authorities in charge of risk mitigation, who could then concentrate their preventive information campaign on certain districts or social groups. Among other conclusions, these maps highlight the gap between the physical vulnerability of buildings and the confidence of the population in their resistance in case of an earthquake.

Discovery of the Major Mechanism of Global Warming and Climate Change

Statistical analysis of the number of destructive earthquakes versus global temperature and greenhouse gases revealed very significant correlations. The motion of the North Pole, deduced from the geomagnetic polar shift data, is highly correlated with major earthquakes. This is an indication that the frequent occurrence of major earthquakes had increased earth's obliquity and induced global warming and possibly emission of greenhouse gases. It was shown by a simple model developed here that seismic-induced oceanic force could enhance the obliquity leading to increased solar radiative flux on earth. The increase of the absorbed solar radiation due to polar tilt was also confirmed by SOLRAD model which computed a net gain of solar radiative forcing due to enhanced obliquity. SOLRAD also revealed a poleward gain of solar radiative flux which could have facilitated the observed polar amplification of global warming. Multiple regression analysis also showed that polar shift and solar irradiance played a major role in the temperature rise and CO 2 increase in recent years. The analysis showed that obliquity change due to North Pole shift and total solar irradiance accounted for 63.5% and 36.4% respectively, while CO 2 changes accounted for 0.1% of the observed global warming. Preliminary simulations conducted with EdGCM climate model also showed that enhanced obliquity increases the absorbed solar radiative flux, surface air and ocean temperatures, and decreases ocean ice cover. This study confirmed in several ways that earthquake-perturbed obliquity change, and not greenhouse effect, is the major mechanism governing the present global warming and climate change problem.

An earthquake disaster management mechanism based on risk assessment information for the tourism industry-a case study from the island of Taiwan

Although progress has been made in assessing risks in Taiwan, there remains a need to undertake risk assessment for the Taiwanese tourism industry. Although the conventional rules of thumb usually adopted by the insurance industry for damage assessment may be adequate in normal circumstances, this is not feasible for rare incidents for which there is very little reference material. One such example is earthquake damage. The average period of occurrence of major earthquake in Taiwan is about a hundred years, which makes it impossible to precisely assess average losses. In addition, earthquakes are not like some disasters (such as typhoons or epidemics) for which one can receive early warning. Thus, in this study, we seek to provide a practical mechanism for earthquake disaster risk assessment and management for the tourism industry, focusing on insurance and prevention. The primary objective is to integrate the relevant earth sciences, engineering and insurance data with the concepts of disaster risk management, taking into consideration the characteristics and sources of earthquake-related risks. In short, we develop an earthquake disaster assessment model to apply to risk management in the tourism industry. The practicality of the model is demonstrated with some examples related to the hotel industry in Hualien, Taiwan, an area plagued by frequent earthquakes. The results clearly show the efficacy of the proposed disaster assessment models for the tourism industry.