Earthquakes in the Garhwal Himalaya of the Central Seismic Gap: A Study of Historical and Present Seismicity and Their Implications to the Seismotectonics

Abstract

The historical and the present seismicity catalogues of the Garhwal Himalaya have been studied for their spatio-temporal variations and their implications on the seismotectonics of the region. The Micro-Seismicity, Fractal dimensions (Dc) and Frequency Magnitude Distribution (b-value) coupled with the available literature on geology, geomorphology and geophysics have been used to derive the seismotectonics and stress level changes in the region. The seismic cross sections for the relocated micro-seismicity, focal mechanisms and the swath profiles (for the presence of Physiographic Transition 2 (PT2) at the foothill of the Higher Himalaya) indicate the constant presence of the Mid-Crustal Ramp (MCR) in the detachment plane and its active seismogenic nature. The comparison of this scenario suggests the constant presence of seismogenically active MCR structure throughout the Central Seismic Gap. The seismic cross sections further reveal that the sensu stricto Main Central Thrust (Munsiari Thrust) is also a site of generation of the micro-seismicity in few segments due to its reactivation by thrusting along the MCR. The high fractal dimension value (Dc = 1.47) suggests the heterogeneous nature of the region, owing to the presence of local faults and transverse tectonics. The high stress accumulation in the Garhwal Himalaya with low b value (b = 0.70) suggests the high probability of occurrence of a larger or greater earthquake in the near-future. Further, the study also reveals that the 2011 Chamoli earthquake of M 5.0, preceded by a quiescence period of nearly a year shows different stress levels before and after its occurrence, which is well constrained with the increased moderate earthquake activity around the Chamoli region. This increased seismic activity and stress conditions in the Chamoli region suggest the high possibility of the occurrence of major earthquakes, hence the study recommend for a detailed seismic hazard evaluation of the region.