Variasi spasial dan temporal nilai-b pada gempa bumi di wilayah Sulawesi Tengah, Gorontalo, dan sekitarnya menggunakan metode robust fitting

Abstract

This study discusses variation in seismic and tectonic modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter relationship for earthquakes in the Central Sulawesi, Gorontalo, and surrounding areas using the Robust Fitting Method (RFM) with the weight function of Tukey’s bisquare. The declustering process on earthquake data is carried out using the Reasenberg equation. The values for both parameters are analyzed spatially and temporally. In the spatial analysis, the research area is divided into 43 grids. In the temporal analysis, the research area is divided into zone A and zone B. The data grouping is done using a sliding time window method, i.e., grouping 50 earthquake catalogs with 5 overlapping events. The results according to spatial analysis show that the b-values range from 0.38 – 1.19. Areas with low b-values (0.38 – 0.7) occur around the Palu-Koro Fault, i.e., Palu city, Malacca strait, and to Toli-Toli, and also in the northern region of Gorontalo, i.e., the subduction plate of the Sulawesi Sea. Meanwhile, high b-values (0.71 – 1.19) are in the Tomini Bay area which is an area with frequent occurrence of earthquakes but has the small potential to generate large-scale earthquakes. The results of the temporal b-value estimation in zones A and B range between values of 0.38 - 1.25. The b-values appear to decrease before the occurrence of major earthquakes in 1996 and 2018 in zone A. The b-values decreased before the occurrence of major earthquakes in 1990, 1991, 2000, and 2008 in zone B. However, the b-values cannot be used as a precursor before the big earthquake in 1997.
 Keywords: Tukey’s bisquare, Reasenberg equation, Gutenberg-Richter relationship, sliding time window, Robust Fitting Method. MSC2020: 86A15