Frost Occurrence Research Articles

STUDYING THE IMPACT OF EARLY AUTUMN AND LATE SPRING FROSTS ON AGRICULTURAL CROPS YIELD IN IRAN

To study early autumn and late spring frosts and its relation to the yield of agriculture crops in Semnan province we used statistics the least daily minimum temperature of 6 stations in the months of October and November and April during the period (1993-2014) as well as information on yield of agricultural crops from horticulture department of agriculture Organization. Using Pearson correlation coefficient between yield and frequency of early autumn and late spring frosts were studied and finally induced to study the frosts trends for each station. Early frosts of autumn in the province date from 20 October to 23 November and latest frosts ranged from 3 to 23 April and Biarjomand station experience earliest autumn and latest spring frosts. The Relationship between crop yields with frost Occurrence frequency shows that by increasing the number of days of early autumn frosts reduced wheat yield. This condition is for crops such as peas, walnuts and grapes, too. Amongst, the greatest impact is on the potato crop, which is closely related to the pattern of cultivation and harvest. On the other hand, it was found that late spring frosts in the province have the greatest impact on horticultural crops such as cherries, peaches, walnuts and grapes. As a result, early and late frosts changes in Semnan and Miami has increased, which in coming years will be also affected by this situation. Also, early frosts of autumn at harvest time and late spring frosts during flowering have many effects on crop yield. 

Agroclimatic Risk Zoning of Papaya (Carica papaya L.) in the Hydrographic Basin of Paraná River III, Brazil

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of papaya (Carica papaya L.) in the world. Despite modern technological and scientific advances, climate is still the most important meteorological variable in agricultural production. In this context, agroclimatic risk zoning should be one of the first things to be considered when planning cultivation. The purpose of this study was to carry out climatic risk zoning for papaya cultivation in the Basin of Paraná River III, Paraná state, Brazil. Were used meteorological data from 1976 to 2018, collected from 43 stations. The climatic risk analysis was based on the precipitation, water balance, average annual temperature, average insolation, and frost tolerance required for papaya cultivation. The occurrence of frosts is the key limiting factor for production in the study area. This meteorological factor limits the viability of papaya cultivation in the Center-Eastregion of the Basin. In other areas, risk remains, however, the papaya is apt for cultivation.

Changes in the Occurrence of Late Spring Frost in Poland

Trends in the appearance of the last spring frost for three thresholds of minimum daily air temperature at the height of 2 m and near the ground were examined for six meteorological stations located in two agricultural regions in Poland. For most time series, the last spring frost, calculated as a consecutive day of the year, showed a statistically significant trend indicating its earlier appearance from 1.6 to about 3.5 days per decade. The date of the last spring frost was also calculated in relation to the ongoing growing season. In this case, few statistically significant changes in the dates of the last frosts were found. The probability of the last spring frost on a specific day of the calendar year and the day of the growing season was also examined for two periods: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. For low probability levels corresponding to the early dates of the last spring frost, the last frost usually occurred much earlier (6–14 days) in 1991–2020. With the probability levels of 80–90% describing the late occurrence of the last frost with a frequency of once every 5–10 years, at some stations, the last spring frosts occurred at a similar time for both periods.

Riscos de geadas em cultivos de batata na região de Guarapuava-PR em diferentes fases do ENOS

A condução de cultivos em condições de baixa previsibilidade da variabilidade climática pode ser considerado como um elemento de redução expressiva dos resultados de produção. A batata é definida como uma cultura sensível ao frio intenso, e no Sul do Brasil o ciclo de cultivo pode ocorrer em período de risco de eventos de geada. O estudo objetivou avaliar os riscos de ocorrência de geadas de diferentes intensidades durante o ciclo de desenvolvimento da cultura da batata em Guarapuava-PR, em diferentes períodos de cultivo nas distintas fases do ENOS. Utilizou-se série histórica de dados climáticos de 43 anos, entre 1976 e 2018. As análises foram realizadas com estatística descritiva utilizando-se índices de porcentagem e normalização de conjunto de dados. Os dados foram agrupados em períodos decendiais para os meses de agosto a outubro e março a maio, em que existe frequência de geadas e possibilidade de lavouras de batata em desenvolvimento no campo. Dentre os principais resultados verificou-se que o período de plantio, com minimização dos riscos de ocorrência de geadas para a cultura na região de Guarapuava, é compreendido entre 21 de setembro e 31 de janeiro em ambas as fases do ENOS, El Niño e La Niña e neutralidade climática. De forma geral o cultivo de batata em anos de neutralidade está sujeito à maiores riscos de perdas por ocorrência de geadas quando comparados com o plantio em anos de fenômeno El Niño e La Niña.

El Niño-Oscilação Sul e ocorrência de geadas na região de Guarapuava-PR

A associação das características das fases El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS) com as condições locais, são ferramentas importantes para serem empregadas na geração de informações inerentes aos riscos de geadas. Apesar do seu grande impacto na região Sul do Brasil e em outras partes do mundo, as geadas são eventos de difícil previsibilidade por serem resultado da interação de diferentes condições climáticas. Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a ocorrência de geadas durante os anos de El Niño, La Niña e neutralidade na região de Guarapuava-PR. Foi utilizada uma base de dados históricos das variáveis climáticas de 43 anos (1976 a 2018) posteriormente cruzados com dados do ENOS obtidos da Nacional Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Verificou-se que períodos de neutralidade climática são predominantes em relação as fases extremas do ENOS e apresenta maior frequência de eventos de geadas. Nesta condição a frequência de geadas é de 67% em relação 20% e 13% em La Niña e El Niño, respectivamente.

AGROCLIMATIC RISK ZONING OF PASSION FRUIT (Passiflora edulis Sims) IN THE HYDROGRAPHIC BASIN OF PARANÁ RIVER III, BRAZIL

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of passion fruit in the world. Fruticulture is a prominent segment of Brazilian agriculture. Despite recent technological and scientific advances, the climate is among the most important variable in crops productions. In this context, agroclimatic zoning should be one of the first information to consider before starting the cultivation of a particular crop. The purpose of this paper was to perform agroclimatic risk zoning for passion fruit (Passiflora edulis Sims) in the basin of Parana river 3, located in Parana state, South of Brazil. For this we used meteorological data from 43 stations with historical series between from 1976 to 2019. The analysis of agroclimatic risk was based on the species requirements, such as rainfall, annual water deficit, annual average temperature, sunshine and the risk of frost. The occurrence of frost was the most limiting factor for production in the region. This meteorological factor restricted planting in the central-eastern portion of the basin. In other areas, the risk is present, however the suitability for the passion fruit planting was guaranteed.

Assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-climatic indices in Iran

Countries located in arid and semi-arid regions of the world, such as Iran, with highly dependent economy to agriculture, are more vulnerable to climate change. Six agro-climatic indices have been used, which include the length of the growing season and the frost-free season, dates of the occurrence of the last frost in spring and the first frost in autumn, and annual sum of the growing degree-days (GDD) for two temperature thresholds. To explore variabilities of the indices in the future, outputs of three regional climate models (RCMs) have been analyzed based on two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios for the South Asia CORDEX region, with the horizontal resolution of 0.44°. Differences between the historical and future simulated agro-climatic indices have been calculated, in which the former is obtained from historical outputs of three models for the period 1961–1990, while the latter is based on future simulations during the period 2061–2090 applying RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Both RCP scenarios indicate an increase in the number of frost-free days (maximum 40 and 70 frost-free days according to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively), with higher changes in mountainous regions. Our results indicate that shorter frost days will be more common in northwestern and western Iran in the future period. The highest increase in annual sum of the GDD will be in southern and central Iran, but the lowest increase will be in northwestern Iran.

English

Mango cultivation is one of the key economic agricultural activities of fruit in Brazil. In Southern Brazil, mango presents vulnerability thanks to its frost sensitivity, indicating the relevance of climate studies to improve the production and agricultural techniques, in the context of sustainable agriculture and climate change. Agroclimatic zoning should be one of the first information to be considered when starting its cultivation. The objective of this study is to carry out climatic risk zoning for mango tree (Mangifera indica) in the basin of Paraná River III, Brazil. Meteorological data from 43 stations, from 1976 to 2018, were used. The climatic risk analysis was based on the requirements of the mango for precipitation, water balance, average annual temperature, and frost tolerance. The occurrence of frosts is the key restrict factor for production in the area of study. This meteorological factor restricted mango cultivation in the central-eastern portion of the basin. In other areas, the risk is present but the mango cultivation is recommended. Key words: Climate aptitude, climate variability, agricultural planning.  

Evaluation of the Relationship between Blocking Patterns and Duration of Spring Frost Waves: The Case of Iran

In order to evaluate the effects of blocking patterns on the duration of frost waves across Iran, the minimum daily temperatures of 60 weather stations were collected from 20 March 1968 to 21 June 2014. The findings, which were obtained based on the distribution tables of reported temperatures and their frequency variation graphs, resulted in identifying 114 frost waves. We obtained the daily weather maps at 500 hPa from NCEP/NCAR during the peak days of durable frosts, and it was revealed that the formation of low pressures over 20°-70°E and the dominant southwest-northeast troughs at 500 hPa facilitated the influx of cold air from both eastern Europe and central Siberia toward Iran, leading to the average frost duration of 12.4 days. Furthermore, low-pressure centers appeared in a dipole pattern in northern Iran over Caspian Sea and created durable frosts with an average duration of 15.4 days. The effect of omega shaped pattern of the geopotential height on durable frosts demonstrated a sharp difference with two recent patterns leading to the frost occurrence with a 13.3-day duration averagely. Additionally, the slow speed of cold western currents in the rex type of blocking from 30° to 50°N caused durable frosts of 14.3 days. Also, we found a specific reduction in the frequency of blocking patterns, which has occurred in the past four decades. Mostly, the blocking and non-blocking patterns cause long- and short-duration frosts over Iran, respectively.

Can intensive silvicultural management minimize the effects of frost on restoration plantations in subtropical regions?

Temperature is one of the main factors that influence field establishment of forest species. In high-altitude tropical regions and in subtropical regions, the occurrence of frost represents an important restriction in the trajectory and continuity of ecological processes. Thus, we aimed to characterize frost damage in nine native forest species under different silvicultural management schemes in plantations for the restoration of a riparian forest area in southern Brazil. The experiment was carried out in the Quarta Colônia State Park, and seedlings of nine native tree species, representing the Subtropical Seasonal Forest. Frost damage was measured using a visual damage scale based on the frost damage experienced in the winter of 2016. In addition, to evaluate the resilience of the species, height and diameter data were collected over the duration of the experiment. The species Solanum mauritianum was classified as frost resistant; therefore, we propose that it should be recommended for cultivation in regions where frost events usually occur. The other species studied, both the pioneers, S. terebinthifolius, Enterolobium contortisiliquum, Ceiba speciosa, and Inga marginata, as well as the secondary ones, Actinostemon concolor, Trichilia elegans, T. claussenii, and Eugenia rostrifolia, were influenced by the silvicultural management schemes used. Plants managed under intensive silviculture showed lower levels of frost damage and higher survival rates.

Do Land Use Changes Balance out Sediment Yields under Climate Change Predictions on the Sub-Basin Scale? The Carpathian Basin as an Example

The issue of whether land use changes will balance out sediment yields induced by climate predictions was assessed for a Carpathian basin (Raba River, Poland). This discussion was based on the Macromodel DNS (Discharge–Nutrient–Sea)/SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) results for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and LU predictions. To track sediment yield responses on the sub-basin level the studied area was divided into 36 units. The response of individual sub-basins to climate scenarios created a mosaic of negative and positive sediment yield changes in comparison to the baseline scenario. Then, overlapped forest and agricultural areas change indicated those sub-basins where sediment yields could be balanced out or not. The model revealed that sediment yields could be altered even by 49% in the selected upper sub-basins during the spring-summer months, while for the lower sub-basins the predicted changes will be less effective (3% on average). Moreover, the winter period, which needs to be re-defined due to an exceptional occurrence of frost and snow cover protecting soils against erosion, will significantly alter the soil particle transfer among the seasons. Finally, it has been shown that modeling of sediment transport, based on averaged meteorological values and LU changes, can lead to significant errors.

TEMPORAL TRENDS OF CLIMATE INDICES ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION AND AIR TEMPERATURE IN MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL

The objective of this study was to evaluate the trends of four climatic extremes indices related to minimum and maximum air temperatures and three related to precipitation in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, from 1961 to 2010. These indices were developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI) with the aim of subsidizing climate change on global, regional and local levels. Daily rainfall and temperature long-term series were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) for 47 municipalities, in different regions of the state. The analyzes were conducted considering the four seasons of the year based on the Mann-Kendall and linear regression tests. There was a significant trend towards change in the indices related to minimum (TNn; TNx) and maximum (TXn; TXx) temperatures all over the state. Precipitation indexes (R10mm, R20mm and SDII) have showed no significant changes. The increase in the TNn, TNx, TXn and TXx has been observed in all seasons, except for autumn, and the TNx index in the winter. Both minimum and maximum temperatures indices have showed increase in greatest part of Minas Gerais in the spring, evidencing an expressive heating in this season and a premature summer onset. In the autumn, there was a downward trend in all temperature indices, characterizing an anticipation of winter. In winter, there was an upward trend in the TNn index and downward of the TNx in almost the entire state, indicating a reduction in the frost occurrence possibility, especially in the South and Southeast regions. The highest rates were observed in the Mid-west and Northwest regions. For the TXx index, in the summer there were upward trends throughout the state, especially in the North. Thus, important consequences to the agriculture planning and zoning have taken place as well as a proliferation of arbovirus diseases, affecting the life quality of the population.

Frost damage to canola (Brassica napus L.) during reproductive phase in a controlled environment

This study evaluated frost-related damage and benefits of cold acclimation during the reproductive phase in canola. Plants were exposed to cold acclimation and frost simulation at the start of flowering, during full flowering, and at the start of grain filling. The following were evaluated: plant mortality, number of viable ovules and silique abortion, floral buds and flowers, number of silique grains, total plant dry matter, number of siliques, total silique abortion, and grain dry matter. Frost caused death in non-acclimated plants and increased abortion in siliques, floral buds, and flowers, thus reducing silique and grain dry matter content. Frost mostly prevented the development of embryos in the siliques, but viable ovules were found in the floral buds and flowers. During their reproductive phase, canola plants have only a limited ability to increase their tolerance to frost damage. Nonetheless, siliques originating from the floral buds and open flowers contained a higher number of grains than siliques after frost exposure. Therefore, from the start of flowering to the start of grain filling, floral buds and flowers are responsible for producing most of the grain dry matter when there is frost occurrence.

Leaf‐out in northern ecotypes of wide‐ranging trees requires less spring warming, enhancing the risk of spring frost damage at cold range limits

AbstractAimTrees need to avoid frost damage to their young leaves by leafing out after the occurrence of the last frost, yet they also need to start photosynthesis early in the season to achieve sufficient growth. This trade‐off leads to the hypothesis that ‘safety margins’ against spring frost should become shorter, the longer the winter duration, perhaps reaching an asymptotic limit where frost damage would occur in most years. Physiologically, shorter safety margins in high‐latitude ecotypes might be achieved by lower degree‐day requirements for leaf‐out, compared to low‐latitude ecotypes.LocationEurope.Time period1902–2009.Major taxa studiedTemperate trees.MethodsUsing herbarium collections of Acer platanoides, Carpinus betulus, Fagus sylvatica and Prunus spinosa made over 108 years at 40° to 60° N latitude, we related historic leaf‐out dates to winter and spring temperatures (chilling and degree‐days), winter duration, and date of last frost occurrence in the relevant years and locations.ResultsIn all species, frost safety margins decreased towards high‐latitude regions with long winters, with each day increase in winter duration reducing frost safety margins by 0.48 days in Fagus and 0.32–0.21 days in Prunus, Acer and Carpinus. These latitudinal differences correlate with northern ecotypes’ shorter degree‐day requirements for leaf‐out.Main conclusionsThe decline in spring frost safety margins in regions with long winters supports the new hypothesis that species may reach their geographic range limit where they ‘bump up’ against experiencing regular frost injury to their young leaves. Larger datasets are necessary to further corroborate our hypothesis and future efforts should thus be directed toward increasing the latitudinal range of existing phenological databases.

Identifying Spatially Correlated Patterns between Surface Water and Frost Risk Using EO Data and Geospatial Indices

Frost is one the most significant hazards affecting various aspects of human lives including infrastructure, agriculture, economy and biodiversity. Water bodies are one of the key factors controlling temperature fluctuations and frost. This study introduces a contemporary method for identifying and spatially analyzing frost risk and also explores its spatial correlation with water bodies. The proposed technique is based on coupling freely distributed geospatial data with a time series of land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor. A region located in NW Greece, which annually suffers from very low temperatures and frost conditions and hosts important infrastructure and other human activities, was selected as a case study. In total, 5944 images were processed covering a 14-year long period. A frost frequency map of the study area was compiled along with two geospatial indices associated to distance from rivers/lakes (Hydro Distance Index—HDI) and from the seashore (Sea Distance Index—SDI). Their combined statistical and spatial correlation analysis indicated a protective buffer zone from frost at distances up to 20 km from sea and up to 5 km from lakes and rivers respectively, suggesting that the protective buffer zone depends on the water volume. Statistically, frost frequency was found to be positively correlated with both SDI (rs = 0.527) and HDI (rs = 0.145). Also, the effect of topography was examined in our analysis. Results showed that altitude and slope were moderately correlated to frost frequency; yet, the significance of the correlation was reported to be lower to SDI. Furthermore, the spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a correspondence in the clustering of frost frequency maps with the HDI and SDI. Our findings demonstrate that water bodies are a major controlling factor for frost occurrence, by lowering frost frequency in water surrounding areas. Furthermore, it highlights the promising potential of our proposed methodology in quantifying frost effects, which can form a potentially useful tool assisting effective planning of protection measures and frost hazard mitigation in general.

The adaptive potential of sweet cherry varieties (C. avium L.) under the conditions of Southern horticulture

The results of research on the stability of sweet cherry varieties of different ecological and geographical origin to low-temperature stresses in the Southern horticulture are presented. The aim of the research was to comprehensively assess the generative potential of sweet cherry varieties after stress factors affect and identify the most resistant varieties to the stressors. It is shown that the probability of occurrence of abnormal frosts (limiting) in the range of –33.0°C or return spring frosts –4.0–5.0°C in the Prikuban gardening zone of the Krasnodar Territory is 40% on average. It was found that abnormal frosts can affect sweet cherry plants at the beginning of the dormant period – in december, more often in the middle – in February, less often at the beginning of the growing season – in march. The frequency of recurrent spring frosts affect during the blossoming period is high. The degree of ruin of the sweet cherry generative organs is determined by the type of stress, the limiting temperature and specificity of varieties. The obtained results confirmed that the sweet cherry varieties of local (domestic) breeding were more resistant to frosts and to early spring frosts. According to frost resistance, the sweet cherry varieties of Alaya, Volshebnitsa, Mak and Kavkazskaya are selected. According to the resistance to early spring frosts the varieties of Anons, Alaya, Volshebnitsa, Mak, Kavkazskaya, Sashenka, Demetra and the Dar Izobiliya are selected. According to the complex resistance to frost and to early spring frosts, the varieties of NCFSCHVW breeding of Alaya, Volshebnica, Mak and Kavkazskaya, are selected and recommended for creating the intensive, adaptive gardens in the South of Russia, and to a certain extent they will allow you to control the production potential of plantations of stone fruit crops in order to obtain the consistently high yield capacity of 20-25 t/ha.

Effects of Coolant Temperature on the Characteristics of Soil Cooling Curve

The cooling curves of soil are graphs that represent the variation of soil temperature with time when it is cooled. Knowledge of soil cooling curves and their characteristic parameters play an important role in most thermal analysis concerning soil freezing and/or thawing. Understanding the effect of environmental temperature on these parameters may help scientists better understand how frost heaves happen and how to predict the occurrence of frost heaves more accurately. For soils with identical type, water content, bulk density, and initial temperature, we believe that the freezing process and associated cooling characteristic parameters would be independent of the variation of external environmental temperature. To test this hypothesis, we carried out a series of freezing process experiments on soils with identical physical properties under different coolant temperature conditions. Here, the coolant temperature represents the magnitude of the environmental temperature. Our results indicate that the coolant temperature affects soil cooling curve profiles by changing the critical parameters of nucleation temperature, super-cooling, and phase-transfer duration of water in soil pores. According to the magnitude of the coolant temperature, soil cooling curves can be categorized into three different types: a “regular” freezing process without or with a little super-cooling, a sudden and small rise in temperature after the super-cooling “dip”, and a permanent super-cooling of non-freezing process. We have shown that the freezing temperature of soils is not influenced by the variation of coolant temperature.

Integration of Google Play Content and Frost Prediction Using CNN: Scalable IoT Framework for Big Data

The forecast of frost occurrence requires complex decision analysis that uses conditional probabilities. Due to frost events, the production of crops and flowers gets reduced, and we must predict this event to minimize the damages. If the frost prediction results are accurate, then the damage caused by frost can be reduced. In this paper, an ensemble learning approach is used to detect frost events with Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We have used this to get more efficient and accurate results. Frost events need to be predicted earlier so that the farmer can take on-time precautionary measures. So, for measurement and analysis of Google Play, we have scrapped a dataset of the Agricultural category from different genres and collected the top 550 application of each category of Agricultural applications with 70 attributes for each category. The prediction of frost events prior few days of an actual frost event with an accuracy of 98.86%.

Olive oil characterization of cv. 'Arauco' harvested at different times in areas with early frost in Mendoza, Argentina.

'Arauco' is the only autochthonous olive cultivar from Argentina. Little has been reported so far regarding the management of this crop. In this work, variations in fruit and chemical characteristics of olives harvested over a wide range of dates and seasons are reported for this cultivar at two sites in Mendoza province in central west Argentina. During the harvest periods studied, fruit oil content on a dry basis remained at its maximum and was stable, but fruit oil content on fresh basis increased as water content decreased with delay in harvest date. Harvest date affected the maturity index of fruits as well as the oxidative stability and phenolic content of oil. In contrast, the fatty acid profile was not consistently affected by harvest date. Environmental conditions, mainly the occurrence and intensity of frosts, strongly influenced oil quality as well as maturity with delay in harvest date. The most appropriate harvest time to obtain Arauco oil with a high oil yield and good chemical quality was before mid-May and with maturity index lower than 2. Fruits harvested after mid-May were exposed to minimum temperatures between -1.2 °C and - 4.0 °C, producing oil with low phenolic compounds and oxidative stability. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.

Influence of Topography on Local Atmospheric Features in a Peri-urban Area of Bahía Blanca (Argentina)

The aim of the present work has been to identify the influence of topography on local atmospheric features at multiple temporal scales in a peri-urban area of Bahia Blanca (Argentina). Records were collected at two weather stations with a 35 m difference in elevation. As the area has been authorised for residential occupancy, knowing its hygrothermal distribution is considered essential for bioclimatic design. Topographical characteristics have an impact on local atmospheric features. In the lower areas of the valley records have shown lower temperature and higher humidity percentages than in the high areas. This difference increased during night hours and winter months. With clear skies, the thermal difference between both locations reached 4 °C in the hours before dawn in a winter’s day. The occurrence, intensity and duration of frosts were higher in the lower areas of the valley.