Abstract
Trends in the appearance of the last spring frost for three thresholds of minimum daily air temperature at the height of 2 m and near the ground were examined for six meteorological stations located in two agricultural regions in Poland. For most time series, the last spring frost, calculated as a consecutive day of the year, showed a statistically significant trend indicating its earlier appearance from 1.6 to about 3.5 days per decade. The date of the last spring frost was also calculated in relation to the ongoing growing season. In this case, few statistically significant changes in the dates of the last frosts were found. The probability of the last spring frost on a specific day of the calendar year and the day of the growing season was also examined for two periods: 1961–1990 and 1991–2020. For low probability levels corresponding to the early dates of the last spring frost, the last frost usually occurred much earlier (6–14 days) in 1991–2020. With the probability levels of 80–90% describing the late occurrence of the last frost with a frequency of once every 5–10 years, at some stations, the last spring frosts occurred at a similar time for both periods.
Highlights
A frost occurs when the minimum air temperature drops below0 ◦ C, even if the average daily air temperature is still positive.Most often, such a situation occurs at night or in the morning and is caused by the influx of cold air through a cloudless sky or as a result of cooling the air layer near the ground as a consequence of the heat radiating from the ground into the atmosphere
The analysis of trends in the occurrence date of the last spring frost understood as the number of consecutive days in a year was carried out
Measured at 2 m levels, a statistically significant trend occurred at four out of six analyzed stations, and in the years 1961–2020, it ranged from −1.6 days to −3.5 days per decade (Table 1)
Summary
0 ◦ C, even if the average daily air temperature is still positive Most often, such a situation occurs at night or in the morning and is caused by the influx of cold (often the Arctic) air through a cloudless sky or as a result of cooling the air layer near the ground as a consequence of the heat radiating from the ground into the atmosphere. This research study is dealing with late spring frosts, i.e., frosts that already occur during the growing season. These frosts are one of the most important factors that can cause significant damage to crops when they occur during the development of the plants, and they can result in significant losses in the production of fruit, horticultural and field plants, and in extreme cases, even destroy the entire crop.
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