Disaster event-based spring frost damage identification indicator for tea plants and its applications over the region north of the Yangtze River, China

Abstract

Spring frost damage (SFD) is the main meteorological disaster limiting the tea industry in the region of the north of the Yangtze River (NYR) in China. Research regarding an SFD indicator for tea plants is of great significance for prevention and control of spring frosts, as well as for timely monitoring and early warning. Based on daily minimum air temperatures (Tmin) and spring frost disaster records in NYR from 1961 to 2020, the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of frost identification, and the critical temperature threshold for SFD to tea plants was determined by jointly comparing Overall Accuracy and the Youden Index. The results showed that the area under the ROC curve was 0.977, indicating that Tmin performed well in identifying frost events. The critical temperature threshold for spring frost in NYR was determined as Tmin of 3.7 °C, and 93 % of frost occurrences were correctly identified. Based on the determined critical threshold of SFD, the number of spring frost days, first frost date (FFD), and last frost date (LFD) in NYR from 1961 to 2020 were analyzed. The results showed that the number of spring frost days in NYR decreased from north to south. FFD appeared earlier and LFD ended later in northern NYR than in southern NYR. These results provide theoretical and technical support for the monitoring and evaluation of spring frosts in NYR, and also for implementing SFD prevention and control measurements for tea plants by use of a critical temperature threshold.