Numerical Weather Prediction Research Articles

Towards a 2DEnVar surface data assimilation approach within the convective scale numerical weather prediction model AROME‐France

AbstractSurface data assimilation (DA) plays a key role in the initialisation of soil variables in coupled surface–atmosphere numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Météo‐France, as many other NWP centres, uses an operational surface DA method based on an optimal interpolation (OI), implemented more than 30 years ago. The current surface DA system implemented at Météo‐France in the operational limited‐area AROME‐France model operates in two steps. First, a two‐dimensional OI method analyses the diagnostic screen‐level parameters, which are then used to initialise the prognostic soil variables according to a one‐dimensional OI method. This article presents the implementation and the results of a new two‐dimensional ensemble‐based variational (2DEnVar) system, using the object‐oriented prediction system framework, for the diagnostic screen‐level variable analyses (2‐m temperature and 2‐m relative humidity) within the AROME‐France model. These analysed variables are then used to initialise the soil temperature and soil moisture of the first and second soil layers. A two‐dimensional variational system is initially implemented and compared with an equivalent system that uses an OI surface analysis. The comparison of 2‐m temperature increments shows that the two systems behave in a similar way. From this two‐dimensional variational approach, a 2DEnVar scheme is developed and compared with the OI screen‐level analysis used operationally (reference system). The results are encouraging even though a degradation in forecast quality is noticed at short ranges for 2‐m temperature and 2‐m relative humidity. This is mainly due to a low spread near the surface in the ensemble‐based data assimilation that is used to compute background‐error covariances in 2DEnVar. Sensitivity tests have been performed to improve the initial version of the 2DEnVar scheme. A positive and significant impact is noticed when a multiplicative inflation is applied to the background perturbations coming from the ensemble‐based data assimilation for the computation of 2‐m temperature and 2‐m relative humidity background‐error covariances. Finally, when comparing the inflated 2DEnVar system with the reference, the two systems behave similarly. This suggests that the 2DEnVar scheme, based on ensemble statistics, is capable of properly reconstructing background‐error structures derived from the empirical correlations described in OI.

An Ultra‐Short‐Term Wind Power Prediction Method Based on Spatiotemporal Characteristics Fusion

ABSTRACTAiming at the problem that the existing ultra‐short‐term wind power prediction methods lack consideration of the spatial correlation characteristics of wind farms, resulting in insufficient prediction accuracy, an ultra‐short‐term wind power prediction method based on spatiotemporal characteristics fusion is proposed in this article. First, the fluctuation difference of the time window of wind power is input into the K‐means clustering algorithm to cluster wind farms into several clusters based on power fluctuation similarity. Then, the principal component analysis algorithm is used to reduce the dimensionality of numerical weather prediction data combinations in different regions to reduce the impact of redundant information on modeling accuracy. Finally, a convolutional long‐short‐term memory neural network is designed to extract spatiotemporal features of wind power data and output prediction results. The experimental verification on 18 wind farms in a province in China shows that the proposed wind power prediction method has an average root mean square error of only 0.1257 and has certain applicability.

Numerical Weather Prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in South China Sea Using Attention-Based Context Fusion Network

Numerical weather prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for regional operational forecasts. Deep learning offers an alternative approach to traditional numerical general circulation models for numerical weather prediction. In our previous work, we developed a sophisticated deep learning model known as the Attention-based Context Fusion Network (ACFN). This model integrates an attention mechanism with a convolutional neural network framework. In this study, we applied the ACFN model to the South China Sea to evaluate its performance in predicting SST. The results indicate that for a 1-day lead time, the ACFN model achieves a Mean Absolute Error of 0.215 °C and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.972. In addition, in situ buoy data were utilized to validate the forecast results. The Mean Absolute Error for forecasts using these data increased to 0.500 °C for a 1-day lead time, with a corresponding R2 of 0.590. Comparative analyses show that the ACFN model surpasses traditional models such as ConvLSTM and PredRNN in terms of accuracy and reliability.

Assessment and Validation of Small-Scale Tropospheric Delay Estimations Based on NWP Data

This paper investigates the applicability of the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data for characterizing the gradient of zenith wet delay in horizontal direction observed on short baselines over larger territories. A three-year period of data for an area covering Scandinavia and Finland is analyzed, and maximum gradients during the considered period are identified. To assess the quality of the NWP-based estimates, results for a smaller region are compared with the estimates obtained using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements processed by the GipsyX/RTGx software package (version 2.1) from a cluster of GNSS reference stations. Additionally, the NWP data from 7 to 9 August 2023 covering a period that includes a storm with high rain intensities over Southern Norway leading to sustained flooding are processed and analyzed to assess if the gradient of zenith wet delay in the horizontal direction increases significantly during such events. The results show that maximum gradients in the range of 40–50 mm/km are detected. When comparing NWP-based estimates to GNSS-based estimates, the tropospheric delays show a very strong correlation. The tropospheric gradients, however, show a weak correlation, probably due to the uncertainty in the NWP data exceeding the gradient values. The data captured during the storm show that while the tropospheric delay increases significantly it is difficult to see increases in the gradient of zenith wet delay in the horizontal direction using this data source and resolution.

DPF-YOLOv8: Dual Path Feature Fusion Network for Traffic Sign Detection in Hazy Weather

Traffic sign detection plays an integral role in intelligent driving systems. It was found that in real driving scenarios, traffic signs were easily obscured by haze leading to traffic sign detection inaccuracy in assisted driving systems. Therefore, we designed a traffic sign detection model for hazy weather that can effectively help drivers to recognize road signs and reduce the incidence of traffic accidents. A high-precision traffic sign detection network has been designed to address the problem of decreased model recognition performance caused by external factors such as small size of traffic signs and haze obstruction in real-world scenarios. First, the default YOLOv8 was found to have low model detection accuracy in hazy weather occlusion conditions through experimental studies. Therefore, a deeper lightweight and efficient multi-branch CSP (Cross Stage Partial) module was introduced. Second, a dual path feature fusion network was designed to address the problem of insufficient feature fusion due to the small size of traffic signs. Finally, in order to be able to better simulate the real haze weather scene, we added fog to the raw data to enrich the data samples. This was verified through experiments on a public Chinese traffic sign detection dataset after fogging treatment, compared to the default YOLOv8 model. The improved DPF-YOLOv8 algorithm achieved 2.1% and 2.2% improvement in mAP@0.5 and mAP@0.5:0.95 performance metrics to 65.0% and 47.4%, respectively.

Development of Vertical Radar Reflectivity Profiles Based on Lightning Density Using the Geostationary Lightning Mapper Dataset in the Subtropical Region of Brazil

The study aims to develop vertical radar reflectivity profiles based on lightning density data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on the GOES-16 satellite in the subtropical region of Brazil. The primary objective is to improve the assimilation of lightning data in numerical weather prediction models. The methodology involves the analysis of polarimetric radar data from Chapecó-SC and Jaraguari-MS, spanning from January 2019 to December 2023, and their correlation with lightning data from the GLM. Radar reflectivity profiles were created for different lightning density classes, categorized into six classes based on geometric progression. Results show a significant relationship between lightning activity and radar reflectivity, with distinct profiles for convective and stratiform events. These findings demonstrate the potential of using GLM data to enhance short-term weather forecasting, particularly for severe weather events. The study concludes that the integration of GLM data into weather models can lead to more accurate predictions of intense precipitation events, contributing to better preparedness and response strategies.

A Multi-Decadal Hourly Coincident Wind and Solar Power Production Dataset for the Contiguous United States

As renewable energy continues its rapid expansion in the Unites States, multi-decadal hourly datasets of electricity production are needed to asses reliability and resource adequacy of power grids. Recent years have seen the release of grid-cell-level simulated meteorological variables, however these are not extended to the power domain, are not developed from a dynamically consistent numerical weather model, and only cover a historical baseline of less than a decade. To fill this gap, this work provides a dataset of 43 years of coincident plant-level wind and solar power production data. The dataset is designed to be aggregated to appropriate scales of interest for bulk system studies such as Balancing Authorities (BAs), states, and nodes of a production cost model. The dataset covers every plant in the contiguous U.S. that is reported in the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Form 860 as of 2020. When compared with the EIA-923 monthly generation, we find minimal bias (less than 5%). When compared with BA-reported hourly generation, we find low bias in solar (less than 7%), and slight underdispersion in wind. This coincident multi-decadal historical dataset provides a documented and evaluated multi-resource baseline for studies on reliability, resource adequacy, climate change impacts, and characterization of emergent climate threats on renewable resources.

Temperature sensitivity of the mineral permafrost feedback at the continental scale.

Oxidative weathering of sulfide minerals in sedimentary rocks releases carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. In permafrost zones, this could be a positive feedback on climate change if it increases with warming, yet sulfide oxidation rates and their temperature response remain unknown over large spatial and temporal scales. We analyze a 60-year sulfate concentration dataset from catchments across the Mackenzie River Basin. Sulfate fluxes increased by 45% in the mainstem with 2.3°C of warming, and the temperature sensitivity suggests that continental-scale CO2 fluxes could double by 2100. The largest increases occur in catchments with geomorphic settings which act to rapidly expose rocks through physical weathering and thermokarst processes. Comparisons with a weathering model suggest that warming can increase reaction rates, and changes in the exposure of minerals with warming are also required. Future warming across vast Arctic landscapes could further increase sulfide oxidation rates and affect regional carbon cycle budgets.

Land Cover Mapping in East China for Enhancing High-Resolution Weather Simulation Models

This study was designed to develop a 30 m resolution land cover dataset to improve the performance of regional weather forecasting models in East China. A 10-class land cover mapping scheme was established, reflecting East China’s diverse landscape characteristics and incorporating a new category for plastic greenhouses. Plastic greenhouses are key to understanding surface heterogeneity in agricultural regions, as they can significantly impact local climate conditions, such as heat flux and evapotranspiration, yet they are often not represented in conventional land cover classifications. This is mainly due to the lack of high-resolution datasets capable of detecting these small yet impactful features. For the six-province study area, we selected and processed Landsat 8 imagery from 2015–2018, filtering for cloud cover. Complementary datasets, such as digital elevation models (DEM) and nighttime lighting data, were integrated to enrich the inputs for the Random Forest classification. A comprehensive training dataset was compiled to support Random Forest training and classification accuracy. We developed an automated workflow to manage the data processing, including satellite image selection, preprocessing, classification, and image mosaicking, thereby ensuring the system’s practicality and facilitating future updates. We included three Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model experiments in this study to highlight the impact of our land cover maps on daytime and nighttime temperature predictions. The resulting regional land cover dataset achieved an overall accuracy of 83.2% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.81. These accuracy statistics are higher than existing national and global datasets. The model results suggest that the newly developed land cover, combined with a mosaic option in the Unified Noah scheme in WRF, provided the best overall performance for both daytime and nighttime temperature predictions. In addition to supporting the WRF model, our land cover map products, with a planned 3–5-year update schedule, could serve as a valuable data source for ecological assessments in the East China region, informing environmental policy and promoting sustainability.

Comparison of the Morrison and WDM6 Microphysics Schemes in the WRF Model for a Convective Precipitation Event in Guangdong, China, Through the Analysis of Polarimetric Radar Data

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are indispensable for studying severe convective weather events. Research demonstrates that the outcomes of convective precipitation simulations are profoundly influenced by the choice between single or double-moment schemes for ice precipitation particles and the categorization of rimed ice. The advancement of dual-polarization radar has enriched the comparative validation of these simulations. This study simulated a convective event in Guangdong, China, from May 7 to 8, 2017, employing two bulk microphysical schemes (Morrison and WDM6) in the WRF v4.2 model. Each scheme was divided into two versions: one representing rimed ice particles as graupel (Mor_G, WDM6_G) and the other as hail (Mor_H, WDM6_H). The simulation results indicated negligible differences between the rimed ice set as graupel or hail particles, for both schemes. However, the Morrison schemes (Mor_G, Mor_H) depicted a more accurate raindrop size distribution below the 0 °C height level. A further analysis suggested that disparities between the Morrison and WDM6 schemes could be attributed to the intercept parameter (N0) setting for snow and graupel/hail in WDM6 scheme. The prescribed snow and graupel/hail N0 of WDM6 scheme might influence the melting processes, leading to a higher number concentration but a reduced mass-weighted diameter of raindrops. Reducing the intercept parameter for snow and graupel/hail in the WDM6 scheme could potentially enhance the simulation of convective precipitation. Conversely, the increase in N0 might deteriorate the precipitation simulation performance of the WDM6_G scheme, whereas the WDM6_H scheme exhibits minimal sensitivity to such changes.

Addressing challenges associated with training sample sizes for effective calibration of NWP precipitation forecasts

Abstract Effective calibration of precipitation forecasts produced by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models faces challenges associated with the training sample size. Newly-operationalized NWP models may only accumulate a small number of forecasts and thus may limit robust parameter inference in forecast calibration. It is necessary to investigate how the performance of forecast calibration changes with the amount of training data, to determine an effective training sample size. In this study, we thoroughly investigate the impacts of training sample size on precipitation forecast calibration based on the Seasonally Coherent Calibration (SCC) model across Australia. Overall, the performance of the model tends to stabilize in most parts of Australia when raw forecasts of 10 months or longer are used for parameter inference. Whether the training dataset cover wet months substantially affects forecast calibration. The findings of this study are critical for understanding the impacts of training sample size on forecast calibration, and will provide implications for future forecast calibration and the generation of hindcasts.

The hectometric modelling challenge: Gaps in the current state of the art and ways forward towards the implementation of 100‐m scale weather and climate models

AbstractFor a number of years research has been carried out in several centres which has demonstrated the potential benefits of 100‐m scale models for a range of meteorological phenomena. More recently, some meteorological services have started to consider seriously the operational implementation of practical hectometric models. Many, but by no means all, of the applications are likely to relate to urban areas, where the enhanced resolution has obvious benefits. This article is concerned with the issues that need to be addressed to bridge the gap between research at 100‐m scales and practical models. We highlight a number of key issues that need to be addressed, with suggestions of important avenues for future development. An overarching issue is the high computational cost of these models. Although some ideas to reduce this are presented, it will always be a serious constraint. This means that the benefits of these models over lower resolution ones, or other techniques for generating high‐resolution forecasts, will need to be clearly understood, as will the trade‐offs with resolution. We discuss issues with model dynamical cores and physics–dynamics coupling. There are a number of challenges around model parameterisations, where some of the traditional problems (e.g., convection) become easier but a number of new challenges (e.g., around surface parameterisations) appear. Observational data at these scales present a challenge and novel types of observations will need to be considered. Data assimilation will be needed for short‐range forecasts, but there is currently little knowledge of this, although some of the likely issues are clear. An ensemble approach will be essential in many cases (e.g., convection), but research is needed into ensembles at these scales and significant work on post‐processing systems is required to make the best use of models at these grid lengths.

Demonstration of a physical inversion scheme for all-sky, day-night IASI observations and application to the analysis of the onset of the Antarctica ozone hole: Assessment of retrievals and consistency of forward modeling

Based on a recently developed all-sky forward model (σ-IASI/F2N) for the computation of spectral radiances in the range 100 to 2760 cm-1, the paper addresses the spring onset of the Antarctica ozone hole with infrared observations from the IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounder Interferometer) satellite sounder. The Antarctica ozone hole is a cyclic event that grows in normal conditions in late August and collapses in late November/early December. Because of climate change (cooling of the stratosphere), the O3 hole is expected to become deeper. Indeed, 2021 and 2023 have been characterized by very spatially extensive and deep ozone hole. To demonstrate that we can gain further insights into these phenomena with the help of infrared nadir viewing observations, we have developed an all-sky retrieval tool, which inverts the whole IASI infrared spectrum to simultaneously estimate thermodynamic and geophysical parameters, including ozone and nitric acid, which are key parameters in analyzing the Antarctic ozone hole. Infrared sounders acquire data day and night, unlike visible and ultraviolet sounders, which are only operational during daytime. This enables us to acquire data also during the polar night, which is a critical time for O3 hole formation. Ice polar stratospheric clouds have been identified and fitted with our scheme. Maps of atmospheric ozone, complemented with those of nitric acid, temperature, and lower stratosphere height, have been retrieved for July, September, and October 2021 and 2023. Results are compared to those derived from TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument) and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), showing a very good agreement. The comparison of simultaneously retrieved O3 and HNO3 shows that the onset of the ozone hole is associated with relevant denitrification in the Antarctica Stratosphere. For 2023, our findings also show that O3 depletion episodes began as early as July. Although demonstrative, our analysis evidences the importance of Numerical Weather Prediction centers to assimilating all-sky infrared radiances (day, night, clear, or with ice or water clouds) to get insights into providing a more comprehensive picture of the Southern Spring ozone depletion over Antarctica.

Validation of OceanSat-3 sea surface winds for their utilization in the NCMRWF NWP assimilation systems

The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched OceanSat-3, the third-generation satellite in the OceanSat series, carrying a Ku-band scatterometer in November 2022. The novelty of the OceanSat-3 scatterometer (OSCAT-3) is its high-resolution sea surface wind products generated at 12.5 km in addition to 25 km. This study aims to check the quality of OSCAT-3 winds for their possible assimilation in the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The newly available high-resolution OSCAT-3 wind products are validated against in-situ buoy winds and NCMRWF NWP model equivalents for six months from July to December 2023. The validation results of OSCAT-3 winds are also compared with those of the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard the Meteorological Operational Satellite-C (MetOp-C) using the same method. Validation of OSCAT-3 winds against buoy winds shows that the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSEs) in wind speed (direction) is less than 2 m/s (15°) over the Tropics (20° N − 20° S) and slightly higher than 2 m/s (20°) over the Northern Hemisphere (20° N − 90° N), which is closer to the satellite’s mission specifications of 1.8 m/s and 20°. The RMSE in the wind speed/direction in both the scatterometer winds are less than 2 m/s (20°) over the three different geographical regions: the Tropics, Northern Hemisphere, and Southern Hemisphere, but with lower errors for ASCAT winds. The better agreement of ASCAT winds with the NWP equivalents can be attributed partially to the routine assimilation of ASCAT winds in the NCMRWF operational NWP models and also due to the frequency of operation, C-band compared to the OSCAT-3 operated in the Ku band. Since there are three distinct datasets, scatterometer winds, buoy winds, and the NWP equivalents, triple collocation is also carried out in this study. Triple collocation also shows that the errors in OSCAT-3 winds are within the mission goal. The findings from this study indicate that the OSCAT-3 vector winds are of similar quality as its predecessors (OSCAT-2 and SCATSAT-1) and can be assimilated operationally in the NCMRWF NWP models as well as in other global operational NWP models.

Joint Short-term Power Forecasting of Hydro-Wind-Photovoltaic Considering Spatiotemporal Delay of Weather Processes

Regional integrated energy systems (RIES) represented by hydro, wind, and solar energy are crucial avenues for future clean energy development, fully leveraging their complementarity can facilitate the orderly supply of renewable energy, significantly enhance the level of new energy consumption, and make outstanding contributions to achieving carbon neutrality goals. However, run-of-river hydropower (RHP), wind power (WP), and photovoltaic (PV) are affected by the chaotic characteristics of the weather system, with significant random fluctuations, and their output characteristics have significant heterogeneity, which brings a big challenge for the complementary coordinated scheduling. The high-accuracy power prediction of RHP, WP, and PV in the region is one of the key means for solving the above problems. To meet this challenge, by analyzing the spatio-temporal correlation properties between weather processes and station output, a novel joint prediction framework for short-term power forecasting (STPF) of regional hydro-wind-PV clusters is proposed. Firstly, to solve the problem of significant heterogeneity of water, wind, and solar, a Differentiated Spatio-Temporal Mixture Network (DSTMN) is proposed, which differentially encodes the weather and power information at multiple locations, enabling the extraction of common features while preserving their specificities, which addresses the difficulty of representing the inherent correlation patterns between wide-area meteorological information and heterogeneous energy sources. Secondly, to further explore the spatio-temporal correlation between meteorological information and power information, to improve the forecasting performance of the model, a spatio-temporal-lagged correlation (STLC) that can quantify their spatio-temporal delays is proposed. By analyzing the correlation characteristics between regional grid numerical weather prediction (NWP) information and station output at different spatial and temporal scales, the optimal spatial location and delay time of NWP inputs under the current scenario are determined for each station. Based on this, the best NWP scene probabilistic transfer model is established based on the Rank Bayesian Ensemble (RBE) method. By fitting the conditional probability distribution of the current best NWP spatiotemporal location and the 2nd day’s best NWP spatiotemporal location, providing a reliable input for the STPF model. Finally, a case study with 164 hydro-wind-solar stations in China demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method. Specifically, we achieved an accuracy improvement of 0.46% — 11.03% on the 2nd day of forecasting compared to benchmark methods.

Random Forests’ Postprocessing Capability of Enhancing Predictive Skill on Subseasonal Time Scales—A Flow-Dependent View on Central European Winter Weather

Abstract Weather predictions 2–4 weeks in advance, called the subseasonal time scale, are highly relevant for socioeconomic decision-makers. Unfortunately, the skill of numerical weather prediction models at this time scale is generally low. Here, we use probabilistic random forest (RF)-based machine learning models to postprocess the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) reforecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We show that these models are able to improve the forecasts slightly in a 20-winter mean at lead times of 14, 21, and 28 days for wintertime central European mean 2-m temperatures compared to the lead-time-dependent mean bias-corrected ECMWF’s S2S reforecasts and RF-based models using only reanalysis data as input. Predictions of the occurrence of cold wave days are improved at lead times of 21 and 28 days. Thereby, forecasts of continuous temperatures show a better skill than forecasts of binary occurrences of cold wave days. Furthermore, we analyze if the skill depends on the large-scale flow configuration of the atmosphere at initialization, as represented by weather regimes (WRs). We find that the WR at the start of the forecast influences the skill and its evolution across lead times. These results can be used to assess the conditional improvement of forecasts initialized during one WR in comparison to forecasts initialized during another WR. Significance Statement Forecasts of winter temperatures and cold waves 2–4 weeks in advance done by numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are often unsatisfactory due to the chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere and limited predictive skill at this time range. Here, we use statistical methods, belonging to the so-called machine learning (ML) models, to improve forecast quality by postprocessing predictions of a state-of-the-art NWP model. We compare the forecasts of the NWP and ML models considering different weather regimes (WRs), which represent the large-scale atmospheric circulation such as the typical westerly winds in Europe. We find that the ML models generally yield better temperature forecasts for 14, 21, and 28 days in advance and better forecasts of cold wave days 21 and 28 days in advance. The quality of forecasts depends on the WR present at the forecast start. This information can be used to assess the conditional improvement of forecasts.

Enhancing Surface Wind Speed and Temperature Prediction Using Surface-Layer Emulator and Transfer Learning

Abstract Accurate prediction of surface wind speed and temperature is crucial for many sectors. Physical schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and data-driven correction approaches have limitations due to uncertainties in parameterization and lack of robustness, respectively. This study introduces a physics-informed data model, PhyCorNet, which combines a deep learning–based physics emulator (PhyNet) and a subsequent correction network (CorNet). PhyNet imitates the revised surface-layer parameterization scheme [default option of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model]. CorNet refines predictions by mitigating the difference between PhyNet and observations. PhyCorNet enables gridded forecasts despite the training data being point based. Therefore, PhyCorNet can be regarded as a rediagnostic scheme for surface wind speed at 10 m (WS10) and temperature at 2 m (T2). Compared to WRF, it reduced diagnostic root-mean-square errors in the 24-h forecasts for WS10 and T2 by 40% and 36%, respectively, across China, with unbiased forecasts at almost all sites. PhyCorNet addresses the oversmoothing prediction issue of other deep learning models by providing the ability to represent fine-scale features and perform well in statistically extreme samples. In grid cells without observations for training, PhyCorNet performed much better than WRF, demonstrating the zero-shot learning capability. This study implies that the emulator plus bias correction provided by PhyCorNet could be used as a simple but effective approach to improve the performance of other diagnostic quantities in NWP. Significance Statement We developed a new model called PhyCorNet to improve the surface wind speed and temperature forecasts. Existing weather forecast models have limitations in accurately predicting these variables. PhyCorNet first uses a neural network (PhyNet) to mimic an existing physics-based wind and temperature calculation method. Another neural network [correction network (CorNet)] improves the PhyNet forecasts by comparing them with observations. Across China, PhyCorNet reduced 24-h forecast errors for wind speed by 40% and temperature by 36% compared to a conventional model. It performed well under diverse conditions and overcame the oversmoothing issues faced by other machine learning models. Importantly, PhyCorNet outperformed traditional models in areas without historical observations. We suggest that this new framework can also be used to enhance the forecasts of other atmospheric variables.

The added value of combining solar irradiance data and forecasts: A probabilistic benchmarking exercise

Despite the growing awareness in academia and industry of the importance of solar probabilistic forecasting for further enhancing the integration of variable photovoltaic power generation into electrical power grids, there is still no benchmark study comparing a wide range of solar probabilistic methods across various local climates. Having identified this research gap, experts involved in the activities of IEA PVPS T1611International Energy Agency - Photovoltaic Power Systems - Solar Resource for High Penetration and Large Scale Applications. agreed to establish a benchmarking exercise to evaluate the quality of intra-hour and intra-day probabilistic irradiance forecasts.The tested forecasting methodologies are based on different input data including ground measurements, satellite-based forecasts and Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), and different statistical methods are employed to generate probabilistic forecasts from these. The exercise highlights different forecast quality depending on the method used, and more importantly, on the input data fed into the models.In particular, the benchmarking procedure reveals that the association of a point forecast that blends ground, satellite and NWP data with a statistical technique generates high-quality probabilistic forecasts. Therefore, in a subsequent step, an additional investigation was conducted to assess the added value of such a blended point forecast on forecast quality. Three new statistical methods were implemented using the blended point forecast as input.To ensure a fair evaluation of the different methods, we calculate a skill score that measures the performance of the proposed model relative to that of a trivial baseline model. The closer the skill score is to 100%, the more efficient the method is. Overall, skill scores of methods that use the blended point forecast ranges from 42% to 46% for the intra-hour scenario and 27% to 32% for the intra-day scenario. Conversely, methods that do not use the blended point forecast exhibit skill scores ranging from 33% to 43% for intra-hour forecasts and 8% to 16% for intra-day forecasts.These results suggest that using (a) blended point forecasts that optimally combine different sources of input data and (b) a post-processing with a statistical method to produce the quantile forecasts is an effective and consistent way to generate high-quality intra-hour or intra-day probabilistic forecasts.

Observing System Simulation Experiments Exploring Potential Spaceborne Deployment Options for a Differential Absorption Radar Measuring Marine Surface Pressures

AbstractA new technology for remote measurements of marine surface pressure has been proposed, employing a V‐band differential absorption radar and a radiometric temperature sounder to calculate the total column atmospheric mass. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) are performed to evaluate the potential impact of Spaceborne Marine Surface Pressure (SMSP) on Numerical Weather Prediction. These experiments build on prior efforts (Privé, McLinden, et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.3254), but with an updated version of the OSSE framework and with more sophisticated simulation of the SMSP observations and a longer experiment period. Several different instrument configurations are compared, including both scanning and non‐scanning orbits. SMSP impacts are calculated for analysis quality and forecast skill, and a forecast sensitivity observation impact tool is employed to place SMSP observations in context with the global observing network. The effects of rain contamination on observation quality are explored. Different magnitudes of simulated SMSP observation error are tested in the context of data assimilation to show the range of potential behaviors. Overall, SMSP observations are found to be most beneficial in the southern hemisphere extratropics, with statistically significant forecast improvements for the first 72 hr of the forecast. A constellation of four non‐scanning SMSP satellites is found to outperform a single scanning instrument with a 250 km wide swath.

Comparison of Physically Based and Empirical Modeling of Nighttime Spatial Temperature Variability during a Heatwave in and around a City

Abstract The numerical weather prediction model HARMONIE-AROME and a multiple linear regression model (referred to in this article as the TURCLIM model after the local climate observation network) were used to model surface air temperature for 25–31 July 2018 in the City of Turku, Finland, to study their performance in urban areas and surrounding rural areas. The 0200 LT (local standard time) temperatures modeled by the HARMONIE-AROME and TURCLIM models were compared to each other and against the observed temperatures to find the model best suited for modeling the urban heat island effect and other spatial temperature variabilities during heatwaves. Observed temperatures were collected from 74 sites, representing both rural and urban environments. Both models were able to reproduce the spatial nighttime temperature variation. However, HARMONIE-AROME modeled temperatures were systematically warmer than the observed temperatures in stable conditions. Spatial differences between the models were mostly related to the physiographic characteristics: for the urban areas, HARMONIE-AROME modeled on average 1.4°C higher temperatures than the TURCLIM model, while for other land-cover types, the average difference was 0.51°C at maximum. The TURCLIM model performed well when the explanatory variables were able to incorporate enough information on the surrounding physiography. Respectively, systematic cold or warm bias occurred in the areas in which the thermophysically relevant physiography was lacking or was only partly captured by the model. Significance Statement As more and more people are living in an urban environment, the demand for accurate urban climate modeling is growing. This study aims to understand the differences between the numerical weather prediction and multiple linear regression modeling and their limitations in modeling surface air temperature in subkilometer scale. The case study shows that models are capable of predicting the spatial variation of 0200 LT nighttime temperature during a heatwave in a high-latitude coastal city. Both models are therefore valuable assets for city planners who need accurate information about the impacts of the physiography on the urban climate. The results indicate that to improve the performance of the models, more accurate physiographic description and higher spatial resolution of the models are needed.