Numerical Ice Sheet Models Research Articles

Beryllium isotopes in sediments from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen, East Antarctica, reveal substantial glacial discharge during the late Holocene

Constraining East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) evolution during the Holocene is important for exploring the forcing mechanisms behind ice sheet retreat and to constrain numerical ice sheet models that aid predictions of future sea-level rise. Beryllium (Be) isotope analysis of bedrock and marine sediments have offered unparalleled insight into Antarctic ice sheet history since the Pliocene, but much of EAIS remains poorly studied. Here, we report the reactive (authigenic) 10Be abundance, 9Be abundance and 10Be/9Be ratios of Antarctic lake sediments, for the first time, from Lake Maruwan Oike and Lake Skallen along Soya Coast of Lützow-Holm Bay, East Antarctica. Beryllium isotope records reveal melting of local glaciers associated with higher subglacial erosion between ∼4.1 and ∼3.6 ka BP. Comparison to marine records from the Antarctic continental shelf suggests this was part of a circum-Antarctic phenomena that led to widespread glacial discharge from other sectors of the East and West Antarctic Ice Sheet. We suggest the incursion of relatively warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into Lützow-Holm Bay during the Late Holocene led to frontal and basal melting of ice sheets along the Soya Coast, supporting the notion of Antarctic ice sheet instabilities as a contributor to global sea-level rise since the Mid Holocene.

Sensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheets to the warming of marine isotope substage 11c

Abstract. Studying the response of the Antarctic ice sheets during periods when climate conditions were similar to the present can provide important insights into current observed changes and help identify natural drivers of ice sheet retreat. In this context, the marine isotope substage 11c (MIS11c) interglacial offers a suitable scenario, given that during its later portion orbital parameters were close to our current interglacial. Ice core data indicate that warmer-than-present temperatures lasted for longer than during other interglacials. However, the response of the Antarctic ice sheets and their contribution to sea level rise remain unclear. We explore the dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheets during this period using a numerical ice sheet model forced by MIS11c climate conditions derived from climate model outputs scaled by three glaciological and one sedimentary proxy records of ice volume. Our results indicate that the East and West Antarctic ice sheets contributed 4.0–8.2 m to the MIS11c sea level rise. In the case of a West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, which is the most probable scenario according to far-field sea level reconstructions, the range is reduced to 6.7–8.2 m independently of the choices of external sea level forcing and millennial-scale climate variability. Within this latter range, the main source of uncertainty arises from the sensitivity of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to a choice of initial ice sheet configuration. We found that the warmer regional climate signal captured by Antarctic ice cores during peak MIS11c is crucial to reproduce the contribution expected from Antarctica during the recorded global sea level highstand. This climate signal translates to a modest threshold of 0.4 ∘C oceanic warming at intermediate depths, which leads to a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet if sustained for at least 4000 years.

Sensitivity of ice loss to uncertainty in flow law parameters in an idealized one-dimensional geometry

Abstract. Acceleration of the flow of ice drives mass losses in both the Antarctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. The projections of possible future sea-level rise rely on numerical ice-sheet models, which solve the physics of ice flow, melt, and calving. While major advancements have been made by the ice-sheet modeling community in addressing several of the related uncertainties, the flow law, which is at the center of most process-based ice-sheet models, is not in the focus of the current scientific debate. However, recent studies show that the flow law parameters are highly uncertain and might be different from the widely accepted standard values. Here, we use an idealized flow-line setup to investigate how these uncertainties in the flow law translate into uncertainties in flow-driven mass loss. In order to disentangle the effect of future warming on the ice flow from other effects, we perform a suite of experiments with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), deliberately excluding changes in the surface mass balance. We find that changes in the flow parameters within the observed range can lead up to a doubling of the flow-driven mass loss within the first centuries of warming, compared to standard parameters. The spread of ice loss due to the uncertainty in flow parameters is on the same order of magnitude as the increase in mass loss due to surface warming. While this study focuses on an idealized flow-line geometry, it is likely that this uncertainty carries over to realistic three-dimensional simulations of Greenland and Antarctica.

Long‐Term Increase in Antarctic Ice Sheet Vulnerability Driven by Bed Topography Evolution

AbstractIce sheet behavior is strongly influenced by the bed topography. However, the effect of the progressive temporal evolution of Antarctica's subglacial landscape on the sensitivity of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) to climatic and oceanic change has yet to be fully quantified. Here we investigate the evolving sensitivity of the AIS using a series of data‐constrained reconstructions of Antarctic paleotopography since glacial inception at the Eocene‐Oligocene transition. We use a numerical ice sheet model to subject the AIS to schematic climate and ocean warming experiments and find that bed topographic evolution causes a doubling in ice volume loss and equivalent global sea level rise. Glacial erosion is primarily responsible for enhanced ice sheet retreat via the development of increasingly low‐lying and reverse sloping beds over time, particularly within near‐coastal subglacial basins. We conclude that AIS sensitivity to climate and ocean forcing has been substantially amplified by long‐term landscape evolution.

Geologic controls on ice sheet sensitivity to deglacial climate forcing in the Ross Embayment, Antarctica

The role of external forcings in the deglacial ice sheet evolution of the Ross Embayment, Antarctica's largest catchment, continues to be a highly contested topic. Although numerical ice sheet models indicate that ocean and atmosphere forcings were the main drivers of deglacial ice sheet retreat, these models have difficulty in accurately capturing both the timing and rate of retreat in every area of the embayment. Other factors that influence the sensitivity of ice sheets to climate forcing, such as the physical properties of the bed, isostatic deformation of the continental shelf, and rheological properties of the ice, are parameterized inconsistently across models. Here, we explore using a systematic approach the extent to which specific model parameters related to basal substrate, bed deformation and ice flow and rheology impact the climate sensitivity of the ice sheet in the Ross Embayment over the last deglaciation. Higher variability in deglacial ice sheet evolution is observed among experiments using different model parameters than among experiments using different climate forcings. Mantle viscosity, the material properties of the till, and an enhancement factor of the shallow shelf approximation (ESSA) component of the stress balance exhibit strong influences on the timing of ice sheet response to deglacial climate forcing, and may contribute to the asynchronous retreat behavior of the Eastern and Western Ross Sea. The Western Ross Sea is especially sensitive to both climate forcing and model parameter selection, with both cool climate forcing and low ESSA producing better agreement with terrestrial ice thinning records. The evolution and extent of the Siple Coast grounding line is highly sensitive to the mantle viscosity and till properties in addition to ocean and precipitation forcing. Constraining these physical model parameters is therefore paramount for accurate projections of the Antarctic ice sheet response to projected future changes in ocean temperatures and precipitation.

Instantaneous Antarctic ice sheet mass loss driven by thinning ice shelves

AbstractRecent observations show that the rate at which the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is contributing to sea level rise is increasing. Increases in ice‐ocean heat exchange have the potential to induce substantial mass loss through the melting of its ice shelves. Lack of data and limitations in modeling, however, has made it challenging to quantify the importance of ocean‐induced changes in ice shelf thickness as a driver for ongoing mass loss. Here, we use a numerical ice sheet model in combination with satellite observations of ice shelf thinning from 1994 to 2017 to quantify instantaneous changes in ice flow across all AIS grounding lines, resulting from changes in ice shelf buttressing alone. Our process‐based predictions are in good agreement with observed spatial patterns of ice loss, providing support for the notion that a significant portion of the current ice loss of the AIS is ocean driven and caused by a reduction in ice shelf buttressing.

Comparing numerical ice-sheet model output with radio-echo sounding measurements in the Weddell Sea sector of West Antarctica

AbstractNumerical ice-sheet models are commonly matched to surface ice velocities from InSAR measurements by modifying basal drag, allowing the flow and form of the ice sheet to be simulated. Geophysical measurements of the bed are rarely used to examine if this modification is realistic, however. Here, we examine radio-echo sounding (RES) data from the Weddell Sea sector of West Antarctica to investigate how the output from a well-established ice-sheet model compares with measurements of the basal environment. We know the Weddell Sea sector contains the Institute, Möller and Foundation ice streams, each with distinct basal characteristics: Institute Ice Stream lies partly over wet unconsolidated sediments, where basal drag is very low; Möller Ice Stream lies on relatively rough bed, where basal drag is likely larger; and Foundation Ice Stream is controlled by a deep subglacial trough with flow-aligned bedrock landforms and smooth unconsolidated sediments. In general, the ice-sheet model represents each ice-stream system well. We also find that ice velocities do not match perfectly in some locations, and that adjustment of the boundaries of low basal drag, to reflect RES evidence, should improve model performance. Our work showcases the usefulness of RES in calibrating ice-sheet model results with observations of the bed.

Constraining the geothermal heat flux in Greenland at regions of radar-detected basal water

AbstractThe spatial distribution of basal water critically impacts the evolution of ice sheets. Current estimates of basal water distribution beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) contain large uncertainties due to poorly constrained boundary conditions, primarily from geothermal heat flux (GHF). The existing GHF models often contradict each other and implementing them in numerical ice-sheet models cannot reproduce the measured temperatures at ice core locations. Here we utilize two datasets of radar-detected basal water in Greenland to constrain the GHF at regions with a thawed bed. Using the three-dimensional ice-sheet model SICOPOLIS, we iteratively adjust the GHF to find the minimum GHF required to reach the bed to the pressure melting point, GHFpmp, at locations of radar-detected basal water. We identify parts of the central-east, south and northwest Greenland with significantly high GHFpmp. Conversely, we find that the majority of low-elevation regions of west Greenland and parts of northeast have very low GHFpmp. We compare the estimated constraints with the available GHF models for Greenland and show that GHF models often do not honor the estimated constraints. Our results highlight the need for community effort to reconcile the discrepancies between radar data, GHF models, and ice core information.

Paleo ice-sheet modeling to constrain past sea level

Numerical ice-sheet models are a key tool to estimate the contribution of ice sheets to past sea-level change. Here, we highlight a few developments and applications of ice-sheet models that allow ice-sheet contributions to past sea-level changes to be estimated.

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change

Abstract. Ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is expected to become the major contributor to sea level in the next centuries. Projections of the AIS response to climate change based on numerical ice-sheet models remain challenging due to the complexity of physical processes involved in ice-sheet dynamics, including instability mechanisms that can destabilise marine basins with retrograde slopes. Moreover, uncertainties in ice-sheet models limit the ability to provide accurate sea-level rise projections. Here, we apply probabilistic methods to a hybrid ice-sheet model to investigate the influence of several sources of uncertainty, namely sources of uncertainty in atmospheric forcing, basal sliding, grounding-line flux parameterisation, calving, sub-shelf melting, ice-shelf rheology and bedrock relaxation, on the continental response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change over the next millennium. We provide probabilistic projections of sea-level rise and grounding-line retreat, and we carry out stochastic sensitivity analysis to determine the most influential sources of uncertainty. We find that all investigated sources of uncertainty, except bedrock relaxation time, contribute to the uncertainty in the projections. We show that the sensitivity of the projections to uncertainties increases and the contribution of the uncertainty in sub-shelf melting to the uncertainty in the projections becomes more and more dominant as atmospheric and oceanic temperatures rise, with a contribution to the uncertainty in sea-level rise projections that goes from 5 % to 25 % in RCP 2.6 to more than 90 % in RCP 8.5. We show that the significance of the AIS contribution to sea level is controlled by the marine ice-sheet instability (MISI) in marine basins, with the biggest contribution stemming from the more vulnerable West Antarctic ice sheet. We find that, irrespective of parametric uncertainty, the strongly mitigated RCP 2.6 scenario prevents the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet, that in both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios the occurrence of MISI in marine basins is more sensitive to parametric uncertainty, and that, almost irrespective of parametric uncertainty, RCP 8.5 triggers the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

Antarctic ice sheet palaeo-thinning rates from vertical transects of cosmogenic exposure ages

Constraining Antarctic ice sheet evolution provides a way to validate numerical ice sheet models that aid predictions of sea-level rise. In this paper we collate cosmogenic exposure ages from exposed nunataks in Antarctica that have been used, or have the potential to be used, to constrain rates of thinning of the Antarctic Ice Sheets since the Last Glacial Maximum. We undertake quality control of the data and adopt a Bayesian approach to outlier detection. Past thinning rates are modelled by Monte Carlo linear regression analysis. We present thinning rates from 23 sites across Antarctica. The resulting data set is the first Antarctic-wide collation of past ice sheet thinning rates and provides an empirical starting point for future model-data comparisons. Palaeo-thinning rates are spatially variable with high rates appearing to correlate to areas of contemporary rapid changes. On centennial timescales past thinning rates are comparable to modern day observations implying that modern day thinning has the potential to persist for centuries in numerous parts of Antarctica. The onset of abrupt thinning from all sites post-dates Meltwater Pulse 1A suggesting that its source region(s) are distal to areas where exposure age constraints on ice surface geometry exist.

Exploration of Antarctic Ice Sheet 100-year contribution to sea level rise and associated model uncertainties using the ISSM framework

Abstract. Estimating the future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is critical for improving future sea level rise (SLR) projections. Numerical ice sheet models are invaluable tools for bounding Antarctic vulnerability; yet, few continental-scale projections of century-scale AIS SLR contribution exist, and those that do vary by up to an order of magnitude. This is partly because model projections of future sea level are inherently uncertain and depend largely on the model's boundary conditions and climate forcing, which themselves are unknown due to the uncertainty in the projections of future anthropogenic emissions and subsequent climate response. Here, we aim to improve the understanding of how uncertainties in model forcing and boundary conditions affect ice sheet model simulations. With use of sampling techniques embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) framework, we assess how uncertainties in snow accumulation, ocean-induced melting, ice viscosity, basal friction, bedrock elevation, and the presence of ice shelves impact continental-scale 100-year model simulations of AIS future sea level contribution. Overall, we find that AIS sea level contribution is strongly affected by grounding line retreat, which is driven by the magnitude of ice shelf basal melt rates and by variations in bedrock topography. In addition, we find that over 1.2 m of AIS global mean sea level contribution over the next century is achievable, but not likely, as it is tenable only in response to unrealistically large melt rates and continental ice shelf collapse. Regionally, we find that under our most extreme 100-year warming experiment generalized for the entire ice sheet, the Amundsen Sea sector is the most significant source of model uncertainty (1032 mm 6σ spread) and the region with the largest potential for future sea level contribution (297 mm). In contrast, under a more plausible forcing informed regionally by literature and model sensitivity studies, the Ronne basin has a greater potential for local increases in ice shelf basal melt rates. As a result, under this more likely realization, where warm waters reach the continental shelf under the Ronne ice shelf, it is the Ronne basin, particularly the Evans and Rutford ice streams, that are the greatest contributors to potential SLR (161 mm) and to simulation uncertainty (420 mm 6σ spread).

Radar evidence of ponded subglacial water in Greenland

ABSTRACTThe thermal state at the bed of a large ice sheet is a critical boundary condition governing its future evolution. Radar surveys provide an opportunity for direct but remote observation of the ice-sheet bed, and therefore offer a means of constraining numerical ice-sheet models at the ice–bed interface. Here we have processed results of radar surveys of the Greenland Ice Sheet undertaken by the Program for Arctic Regional Climate Assessment (PARCA) between 1999 and 2003, to explore this opportunity. We consider the robustness of the measurements in the context of uncertain dielectric losses in the ice sheet, concluding that the observed radar signal characteristics reflect the character of the bed itself rather than that of uncertain englacial absorption. However, the identification of thaw is restricted to areas where subglacial water has sufficient depth to influence the radar reflection. We derive a map of inferred areas of subglacial thaw, and compare our results with other studies predicting regions with temperate bed. We show that in many areas the radar inferences of ponded water lie within areas predicted to be thawed by modelling and radiostratigraphy. There is clear disagreement in certain areas, suggesting the presence of high geothermal flux anomalies.

Dynamic response of Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet to potential collapse of Larsen C and George VI ice shelves

Abstract. Ice shelf break-up and disintegration events over the past 5 decades have led to speed-up, thinning, and retreat of upstream tributary glaciers and increases to rates of global sea-level rise. The southward progression of these episodes indicates a climatic cause and in turn suggests that the larger Larsen C and George VI ice shelves may undergo a similar collapse in the future. However, the extent to which removal of the Larsen C and George VI ice shelves will affect upstream tributary glaciers and add to global sea levels is unknown. Here we apply numerical ice-sheet models of varying complexity to show that the centennial sea-level commitment of Larsen C embayment glaciers following immediate shelf collapse is low (<2.5 mm to 2100, <4.2 mm to 2300). Despite its large size, Larsen C does not provide strong buttressing forces to upstream basins and its collapse does not result in large additional discharge from its tributary glaciers in any of our model scenarios. In contrast, the response of inland glaciers to a collapse of the George VI Ice Shelf may add up to 8 mm to global sea levels by 2100 and 22 mm by 2300 due in part to the mechanism of marine ice sheet instability. Our results demonstrate the varying and relative importance to sea level of the large Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves considered to present a risk of collapse.

Trough geometry was a greater influence than climate-ocean forcing in regulating retreat of the marine-based Irish-Sea Ice Stream

Marine terminating ice streams are a major component of contemporary ice sheets and are likely to have a fundamental influence on their future evolution and concomitant contribution to sea-level rise. To accurately predict this evolution requires that modern day observations can be placed into a longer-term context and that numerical ice sheet models used for making predictions are validated against known evolution of former ice masses. New geochronological data document a stepped retreat of the paleo−Irish Sea Ice Stream from its Last Glacial Maximum limits, constraining changes in the time-averaged retreat rates between well-defined ice marginal positions. The timing and pace of this retreat is compatible with the sediment-landform record and suggests that ice marginal retreat was primarily conditioned by trough geometry and that its pacing was independent of ocean-climate forcing. We present and integrate new luminescence and cosmogenic exposure ages in a spatial Bayesian sequence model for a north-south (173km) transect of the largest marine-terminating ice stream draining the last British−Irish Ice Sheet. From the south and east coasts of Ireland, initial rates of ice margin retreat were as high as 300−600 m a−1, but retreat slowed to 26 m a−1 as the ice stream became topographically constricted within St George’s Channel, a sea channel between Ireland to the west and Great Britain to the east, and then stabilized (retreating at only 3 m a−1) at the narrowest point of the trough during the climatic warming of Greenland Interstadial 2 (GI-2: 23.3−22.9 ka). Later retreat across a normal bed-slope during the cooler conditions of Greenland Stadial 2 was unexpectedly rapid (152 m a−1). We demonstrate that trough geometry had a profound influence on ice margin retreat and suggest that the final rapid retreat was conditioned by ice sheet drawdown (dynamic thinning) during stabilization at the trough constriction, which was exacerbated by increased calving due to warmer ocean waters during GI-2.

Interplay of grounding-line dynamics and sub-shelf melting during retreat of the Bj\xf8rn\xf8yrenna Ice Stream

The Barents Sea Ice Sheet was a marine-based ice sheet, i.e., it rested on the Barents Sea floor during the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ky BP). The Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream was the largest ice stream draining the Barents Sea Ice Sheet and is regarded as an analogue for contemporary ice streams in West Antarctica. Here, the retreat of the Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream is simulated by means of two numerical ice sheet models and results assessed against geological data. We investigate the sensitivity of the ice stream to changes in ocean temperature and the impact of grounding-line physics on ice stream retreat. Our results suggest that the role played by sub-shelf melting depends on how the grounding-line physics is represented in the models. When an analytic constraint on the ice flux across the grounding line is applied, the retreat of Bjørnøyrenna Ice Stream is primarily driven by internal ice dynamics rather than by oceanic forcing. This suggests that implementations of grounding-line physics need to be carefully assessed when evaluating and predicting the response of contemporary marine-based ice sheets and individual ice streams to ongoing and future ocean warming.

Relevance of Detail in Basal Topography for Basal Slipperiness Inversions: A Case Study on Pine Island Glacier, Antarctica

Given high-resolution satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, ice-sheet models generally estimate mechanical basal boundary conditions using surface-to-bed inversion methods. In this work, we address the sensitivity of results from inversion methods to the accuracy of the bed elevation data on Pine Island Glacier. We show that misfit between observations and model output is reduced when high-resolution bed topography is used in the inverse model. By looking at results with a range of detail included in the bed elevation, we consider the separation of basal drag due to the bed topography (form drag) and that due to inherent bed properties (skin drag). The mean value of basal shear stress is reduced when more detailed topography is included in the model. This suggests that without a fully resolved bed a significant amount of the basal shear stress recovered from inversion methods may be due to the unresolved bed topography. However, the spatial structure of the retrieved fields is robust as the bed accuracy is varied; the fields are instead sensitive to the degree of regularisation applied to the inversion. While the implications for the future temporal evolution of PIG are not quantified here directly, our work raises the possibility that skin drag may be overestimated in the current generation of numerical ice-sheet models of this area. These shortcomings could be overcome by inverting simultaneously for both bed topography and basal slipperiness.

高解像度氷床モデルを用いた南極Dome F 位置の感度に関する数値実験

高解像度氷床モデルを用いた南極Dome F 位置の感度に関する数値実験

Atmosphere‐ocean‐ice interactions in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica

AbstractOver recent decades outlet glaciers of the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE), West Antarctica, have accelerated, thinned, and retreated, and are now contributing approximately 10% to global sea level rise. All the ASE glaciers flow into ice shelves, and it is the thinning of these since the 1970s, and their ungrounding from “pinning points” that is widely held to be responsible for triggering the glaciers' decline. These changes have been linked to the inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CPDW) onto the ASE's continental shelf. CPDW delivery is highly variable and is closely related to the regional atmospheric circulation. The ASE is south of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which has a large variability and which has deepened in recent decades. The ASL is influenced by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode, along with tropical climate variability. It is not currently possible to simulate such complex atmosphere‐ocean‐ice interactions in models, hampering prediction of future change. The current retreat could mark the beginning of an unstable phase of the ASE glaciers that, if continued, will result in collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, but numerical ice sheet models currently lack the predictive power to answer this question. It is equally possible that the recent retreat will be short‐lived and that the ASE will find a new stable state. Progress is hindered by incomplete knowledge of bed topography in the vicinity of the grounding line. Furthermore, a number of key processes are still missing or poorly represented in models of ice‐flow.

Physical analysis of an Antarctic ice core-towards an integration of micro- and macrodynamics of polar ice.

Microstructures from deep ice cores reflect the dynamic conditions of the drill location as well as the thermodynamic history of the drill site and catchment area in great detail. Ice core parameters (crystal lattice-preferred orientation (LPO), grain size, grain shape), mesostructures (visual stratigraphy) as well as borehole deformation were measured in a deep ice core drilled at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica. These observations are used to characterize the local dynamic setting and its rheological as well as microstructural effects at the EDML ice core drilling site (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica in DML). The results suggest a division of the core into five distinct sections, interpreted as the effects of changing deformation boundary conditions from triaxial deformation with horizontal extension to bedrock-parallel shear. Region 1 (uppermost approx. 450 m depth) with still small macroscopic strain is dominated by compression of bubbles and strong strain and recrystallization localization. Region 2 (approx. 450–1700 m depth) shows a girdle-type LPO with the girdle plane being perpendicular to grain elongations, which indicates triaxial deformation with dominating horizontal extension. In this region (approx. 1000 m depth), the first subtle traces of shear deformation are observed in the shape-preferred orientation (SPO) by inclination of the grain elongation. Region 3 (approx. 1700–2030 m depth) represents a transitional regime between triaxial deformation and dominance of shear, which becomes apparent in the progression of the girdle to a single maximum LPO and increasing obliqueness of grain elongations. The fully developed single maximum LPO in region 4 (approx. 2030–2385 m depth) is an indicator of shear dominance. Region 5 (below approx. 2385 m depth) is marked by signs of strong shear, such as strong SPO values of grain elongation and strong kink folding of visual layers. The details of structural observations are compared with results from a numerical ice sheet model (PISM, isotropic) for comparison of strain rate trends predicted from the large-scale geometry of the ice sheet and borehole logging data. This comparison confirms the segmentation into these depth regions and in turn provides a wider view of the ice sheet.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Microdynamics of ice’.