Number Of Extreme Rainfall Events Research Articles

Satellite sensed summer monsoon torrential rain events characteristics along the Himalayan regions of North India and their dynamics

In the past three decades, the total number of extreme rainfall events over northern India has increased, which majorly caused flooding and landslides over the Himalayan foothills and the north Indian region. Some extreme events are reported as torrential rainfall or cloudburst events; others are linked with large-scale weather systems. In this article, we identified extreme precipitation events over northern India during the summer monsoon season using satellite-sensed high-resolution precipitation. Historically noted cloudbursts were selected from these extreme events to study the mechanisms behind their development. The cloudburst events were classified into five primary classes, C1, C2, C3, C4, and C5, based on the large-scale weather systems in the lower, middle, and upper troposphere. A detailed understanding of each class of cloudburst has been carried out to know the precursors for their formation, the dynamical mechanism involved in their development, and the thermodynamic features responsible for causing extreme rainfall. It is found that cloudburst events of classes C1, C2, and C3 are seen during the active monsoon season. Classes C4 and C5 cloudburst events are linked with the monsoon hiatus/break period. In the active monsoon season, these cloudburst events are associated with lower atmosphere cyclonic circulation over the head Bay of Bengal in class C1, and cyclonic circulation centered over Central India in class C2, and East-West oriented low-pressure conveyor system over central India in class C3. Additionally, thermodynamic analysis of each class revealed that class C1, C2, and C3 cloudbursts were associated with the moist instability of the atmosphere during the cloudburst events, where orographic forcing created potential instability and made them intense and overwhelming.

Insights into Rainfall Extremities Across the Agroclimatic Zones of Tamil Nadu, India

Rainfall is a crucial agrometeorological parameter that impacts hydrology and agricultural planning in a region. The spatiotemporal changes in the occurrences of precipitation extremes must be monitored to reduce the hazards caused by the fluctuating rainfall pattern. The extreme rainfall indices for each year categorized under excess, normal and deficit rainfall categories were calculated over the agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu using the high-resolution CHIRPS datasets from 1991 to 2022. The results highlighted that High Rainfall Zone has more consecutive wet days (22 days), minimum consecutive dry days (25 days) and Daily Intensity Index with threshold of 2.5 mm (28.6 mm) compared to other zones. The maximum consecutive dry days of 99 days, a high rainy day of 142 days, and minimum daily intensity of 8.9 mm are experienced by the Cauvery Delta Zone, High Altitude and Hilly Zone, and Western Zone, respectively. Overall, the High Rainfall Zone faces a higher number of extreme rainfall events in terms of wet days and intensity, whereas the average maximum consecutive dry days and minimum rainfall intensity is observed over the north eastern zone and north western zone, respectively indicating high dry periods.

A contrast in biennial variability of rainfall between central India and the Western Ghats and its mechanisms

The Western Ghats (WG) of Peninsular India, an integral part of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall, receives three times the average of all India rainfall. The averaged rainfall over WG is characterized by an intense tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) of 2–3 years of periodicity. The rainfall anomalies over WG are almost uncorrelated to rainfall over Central India (CI) in the TBO window. This study characterizes the WG and CI biennial rainfall variability and their governing mechanisms using observation and reanalysis datasets for 1980–2020. A zonally symmetric build-up of heat anomalies from the Iranian Plateau (IP) to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) extending from the surface to the mid-troposphere governs the TBO rainfall of CI. On the other hand, localized heating (cooling) over the IP and Pak-Afghanistan region (PA) and cooling (heating) over the TP governs the phases of TBO rainfall over WG. An increase (decrease) in anomalous heat build-up in the vertical column causes an increase (decrease) in anomalous moist static energy during positive (negative) WG TBO years extending over the IP (TP) region. Increased heating (cooling) over the IP and PA (TP) during positive WG TBO years can shift the center of near-surface cyclonic circulation, anchored over the Indian subcontinent and surrounding areas during the positive CI TBO years, to move westward. This shift in rainfall anomalies and the center of cyclonic circulation is because of the westward shift in anomalous moisture convergence from CI and significant moisture loss along southeastern Peninsular India. Considering the growing number of extreme rainfall events over the WG regions recently, the present work is an attempt to understand the mechanism through which TBO modulates WG and CI rainfall.

Changes in rainfall rates and increased number of extreme rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro city

Increased temperature rates have the potential to change the rainfall regime in a given region, as well as to intensify its extreme events, which may lead to significant and negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on urban populations. However, knowledge about the extent of changes in rainfall rates in Rio de Janeiro City (RJC) remains incipient; thus, it is necessary applying indices climate change to help better understanding this phenomenon. The aim of the current study is to investigate changes in rainfall distribution and increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in RJC. Daily rainfall data deriving from fifteen weather stations distributed in RJC were analyzed in the RclimDex software and Mann–Kendall test. The analysis has shown increased rainfall rates from the beginning of the series to approximately the first ten years of study. Total rainfall rate has decreased after this period. Rainfall intensity in almost all seasons has decreased after 2005; this outcome has indicated reduced annual rainfall rate and number of wet days. However, there was prevalence of positive trends in daily rainfall rates (Rx1day) and in total rainfall of five consecutive days (Rx5day). The increased number of extreme rainfall events in RJC can cause sudden inundations, floods, runoffs and river overflows with potential to cause landslides and human death due to irregular occupation of hills and slopes.

People’s Perception of Nature-Based Solutions for Flood Mitigation: The Case of Veneto Region (Italy)

Floods have become more frequent due to a growing number of extreme rainfall events linked to climate change and increased urbanization. Additionally, 66% of the world’s population is expected to live in urban areas by 2050, making flood prevention and risk reduction increasingly important. Sustainability, resilience and ecosystem services are essential to increase human well-being in urban environments. Nature-based Solutions (NBS) can provide all the benefits of urban green spaces combined with flood mitigation. This work aims to provide useful information to promote the adoption of NBS to build communities resilient to climate change by exploring how people’s perception of and willingness to implement some NBS. To this end, an online survey was conducted to investigate the knowledge and the perception of NBS and grey infrastructures among people in Veneto, a north-Eastern region of Italy. Data analysis revealed a significant correlation between previous knowledge of water management systems and the perceived effectiveness of some NBS. Behaviors linked to the level of connection with the territory have also been found to influence the perceived effectiveness of NBS. This study provides insights into the dynamics behind the implementation of NBS to reduce the risk of urban flooding and can help policymakers adapt urban plans to promote the adoption of NBS.

Fewer deep cyclones projected for the midlatitudes in a warming climate, but with more intense rainfall

Cyclones are a major cause of extreme weather in the extratropics. Projections of future climate change have focussed on extratropical cyclones identified close to the surface, but cyclones identified at multiple levels of the atmosphere (‘deep’ cyclones) make the largest contributions to total and extreme rainfall. Here we use ten CMIP5 models to assess projected changes in cyclone frequency and associated heavy rainfall between 1979–2005 and 2070–2099 under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), with a focus on changes in vertically organised (‘deep’) systems with cyclones present at both the surface and 500 hPa. We find a robust decrease in the number of deep cyclones by the end of the 21st century, together with an increase in the number of extreme rainfall events caused by deep cyclones. In contrast to deep cyclones, shallow cyclones identified only at the surface are found to produce less rain and are projected to increase in frequency in the future, particularly over land areas. Our findings demonstrate the benefits of considering vertically deep cyclones, as their connection to extreme rainfall has implications for risk assessment and climate adaptation strategies.

Application of mathematical models in design and assessment of sewer network facilities

The application of mathematical models has been expanding in the field of sanitary and environmental engineering. Mathematical models are used in the design and assessment of sewer networks and their facilities. Sewer network models make it possible to create a model of hydraulic and Physico-chemical processes in wastewater flowing through the sewage network. The number of extreme rainfall events is increasing due to climate change. It causes a collapse in the infrastructure of urbanized areas. It is possible to investigate the flow of wastewater under extreme rainfall and to propose measures to eliminate adverse events using mathematical models. Nowadays, it is possible to use modern calculation procedures, which are used to dimension and assess existing facilities. This paper aims to focus on the application of numerical models in the design and assessment of combined sewer overflow chambers. The combined sewer overflow serves to carry away a part of the rain flows from the network to the nearest suitable receiving water body. Their main task is to reduce the uneven load of wastewater treatment plants by rainwater. The combined sewer overflow chambers distribute the inflow into the flow going to the wastewater treatment plant and the lightened flow going to the receiving water. The aim of this paper is to summarize the knowledge of CFD modelling and to get acquainted with the basic principles. In brief, the normal flow describes its simulation using two basic models. Finally, it focuses on the recapitulation of foreign studies and their use in the assessment and design of relief chambers and regulatory objects of the single sewer networks.

A classification of synoptic weather patterns linked to extreme rainfall over the Limpopo River Basin in southern Africa

In the last few decades, the Limpopo River Basin (LRB) has experienced a number of extreme rainfall events which were responsible for considerable socio-economic and environmental impacts. Most of the population here is poor and dependent on rain-fed agriculture. In order to better understand these events over the LRB, CHIRPS, 0.05° gridded rainfall data are used to identify the daily extreme events, analyse their interannual variability and examine relationships with large scale climate modes over the 1981–2016 period. Analysis of the top 20 events suggests a pattern with rainfall generally decreasing from the eastern to western parts of the basin. Typically, the highest rainfall amounts occur over the regions where there are steep topographical gradients between the mountainous regions of northeastern South Africa and the Mozambican floodplains. Almost half of the top 200 extreme events are associated with tropical extra-tropical cloud bands (48%), with tropical low-pressure systems (28%), Mesoscale Convective Systems (14%), and cut-off lows (10%) in the mid-upper atmosphere, also making sizeable contributions. The monthly distribution of the events showed that most of the events occurred during the late summer months (January–March) when tropical lows and cloud bands are more common. On interannual time-scales, most of the summers with above average number of events coincide with La Nina conditions and, to lesser extent, a positive subtropical South Indian Ocean Dipole.

Impact of Climate Variability on the Rice Yield in Uttar Pradesh: an Agro-Climatic Zone Based Study

In the backdrop of the established fact that the climate and agricultural produce foster a close-knit relation, the present study explores the impacts of climate variability on the rice yields across diverse agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India. The time-series non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test was applied to study long term (both annual and seasonal) weather and yield data sets. Minimum temperature, encompassing all the zones, was found to be increasing within the range of 0.06 to 0.44 °C per decade. The ‘kharif’ season maximum temperature trends were found increasing in most zones. In terms of annual and seasonal rainfall trends, the results were mostly non-significant, except for Bhabhar and Tarai Zone which had witnessed a very high decadal trend indicating towards the occurrences of intense rainfall events. North Eastern Plain Zone needs a special mention owing to its large number of extreme rainfall events in three categories (>50 to 100 to 150 mm/day). Considering the annual/seasonal temperature and rainfall variability in the region, the warming trend along with spatio-temporally uncertain rainfall is likely to inflict significant impact upon the rice crop. Consequently, there is a dire need to devise strategies capable of dealing with the impacts of the prevailing climate variability on rice yields in this state of India through development of suitable adaptation options for sustainable production. The continuous and rigorous studies into this field of agro-meteorology subjected to impact assessment call for international action plans that are designed in a frame of ‘bottom-up approach’ or a ‘local to regional to country level’ strategic implementation of adaptation options to sustain yields in the rice fields.

Real-Time Integrated Operation for Urban Streams with Centralized and Decentralized Reservoirs to Improve System Resilience

Recently, the number of extreme rainfall events has increased because of climate change. The ever-widening impervious area in urban watersheds also continuously augments runoff volume. Most measures to prevent urban inundation are structural, such as the construction, rehabilitation, and replacement of urban drainage facilities. Because structural measures require time and money, nonstructural measures are also required for the efficient prevention of urban inundation. Current operations in Korea focus on the individual operation of urban drainage facilities while neglecting the status of effluent streams. A study on urban drainage facilities that considers the status of urban streams is necessary to improve the operation of drainage facilities in urban areas. A revised resilience index is suggested to evaluate measures. For the historical rainfall event in 2010, the system resilience for current and integrated operations was 0.199 and 0.238, respectively. For the 2011 event, the system resilience for current and integrated operations was 0.064 and 0.235, respectively. The integrated operation exhibited good performance for the 2010 and 2011 events. Based on the results of this study, an operation as a nonstructural measure for the total management of urban areas is proposed. The revised resilience index could support decision-making processes for flood-management plans.

Analysis of combined and isolated effects of land-use and land-cover changes and climate change on the upper Blue Nile River basin's streamflow

Abstract. Understanding responses by changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and climate over the past decades on streamflow in the upper Blue Nile River basin is important for water management and water resource planning in the Nile basin at large. This study assesses the long-term trends of rainfall and streamflow and analyses the responses of steamflow to changes in LULC and climate in the upper Blue Nile River basin. Findings of the Mann–Kendall (MK) test indicate statistically insignificant increasing trends for basin-wide annual, monthly, and long rainy-season rainfall but no trend for the daily, short rainy-season, and dry season rainfall. The Pettitt test did not detect any jump point in basin-wide rainfall series, except for daily time series rainfall. The findings of the MK test for daily, monthly, annual, and seasonal streamflow showed a statistically significant increasing trend. Landsat satellite images for 1973, 1985, 1995, and 2010 were used for LULC change-detection analysis. The LULC change-detection findings indicate increases in cultivated land and decreases in forest coverage prior to 1995, but forest area increases after 1995 with the area of cultivated land that decreased. Statistically, forest coverage changed from 17.4 % to 14.4%, by 12.2 %, and by 15.6 %, while cultivated land changed from 62.9 % to 65.6 %, by 67.5 %, and by 63.9 % from 1973 to 1985, in 1995, and in 2010, respectively. Results of hydrological modelling indicate that mean annual streamflow increased by 16.9 % between the 1970s and 2000s due to the combined effects of LULC and climate change. Findings on the effects of LULC change on only streamflow indicate that surface runoff and base flow are affected and are attributed to the 5.1 % reduction in forest coverage and a 4.6 % increase in cultivated land areas. The effects of climate change only revealed that the increased rainfall intensity and number of extreme rainfall events from 1971 to 2010 significantly affected the surface runoff and base flow. Hydrological impacts by climate change are more significant as compared to the impacts of LULC change for streamflow of the upper Blue Nile River basin.

A study of Himalayan extreme rainfall events using WRF-Chem

The rising number of extreme rainfall events over the Himalayan foothill states of India during the recent decades has become a serious issue with the growing concern of aerosol influences. This study intends to provide some insight into aerosol and gas chemistry responses to changes in monsoon circulation and precipitation, and also assess the impact of aerosols on two recent infamous heavy rainfall events using coupled meteorology–chemistry–aerosol (WRF-Chem) model simulations. The sensitivity of aerosols and chemistry on rainfall distribution and the amount is evaluated using the simulations with and without chemistry. Results from this study show that the magnitude and spatial distribution of precipitation are significantly influenced by including aerosol and gas chemistry in the model simulations. Realistic meteorological conditions as well as rainfall amount and distribution are reproduced when aerosols and gasses are taken into account in the simulation. There is an overall enhancement of total cumulative rainfall as high as 20% due to aerosols and gas chemistry over the western Himalayan Indian states. This study shows that cloud-microphysical properties and the resulting precipitation distribution depend critically on the aerosol types and their concentrations under similar thermodynamic conditions. This study highlights the role of aerosol and gas chemistry and recognizes the importance of atmospheric chemistry in the model simulation for the analysis of Himalayan extreme precipitation events, and its further associations with the Himalayan hydrology.

Evaluation of climate change impacts on extreme rainfall events characteristics using a synoptic weather typing-based daily precipitation downscaling model

Climate change has impacted all phenomena in the hydrologic cycle, especially extreme events. General circulation models (GCMs) are used to investigate climate change impacts but because of their low resolution, downscaling methods are developed to provide data with high enough resolution for regional studies from GCM outputs. The performance of rainfall downscaling methods is commonly acceptable in preserving average characteristics, but they do not preserve the extreme event characteristics especially rainfall amount and distribution. In this study, a novel downscaling method called synoptic statistical downscaling model is proposed for daily precipitation downscaling with an emphasis on extreme event characteristics preservation. The proposed model is applied to a region located in central Iran. The results show that the developed model can downscale all percentiles of precipitation events with an acceptable performance and there is no assumption about the similarity of future rainfall data with the historical observations. The outputs of CCSM4 GCM for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are used to investigate the climate change impacts in the study region. The results show 40% and 30% increase in the number of extreme rainfall events under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively.

The potential of urban rainfall monitoring with crowdsourced automatic weather stations in Amsterdam

Abstract. The high density of built-up areas and resulting imperviousness of the land surface makes urban areas vulnerable to extreme rainfall, which can lead to considerable damage. In order to design and manage cities to be able to deal with the growing number of extreme rainfall events, rainfall data are required at higher temporal and spatial resolutions than those needed for rural catchments. However, the density of operational rainfall monitoring networks managed by local or national authorities is typically low in urban areas. A growing number of automatic personal weather stations (PWSs) link rainfall measurements to online platforms. Here, we examine the potential of such crowdsourced datasets for obtaining the desired resolution and quality of rainfall measurements for the capital of the Netherlands. Data from 63 stations in Amsterdam (∼ 575 km2) that measure rainfall over at least 4 months in a 17-month period are evaluated. In addition, a detailed assessment is made of three Netatmo stations, the largest contributor to this dataset, in an experimental setup. The sensor performance in the experimental setup and the density of the PWS network are promising. However, features in the online platforms, like rounding and thresholds, cause changes from the original time series, resulting in considerable errors in the datasets obtained. These errors are especially large during low-intensity rainfall, although they can be reduced by accumulating rainfall over longer intervals. Accumulation improves the correlation coefficient with gauge-adjusted radar data from 0.48 at 5 min intervals to 0.60 at hourly intervals. Spatial rainfall correlation functions derived from PWS data show much more small-scale variability than those based on gauge-adjusted radar data and those found in similar research using dedicated rain gauge networks. This can largely be attributed to the noise in the PWS data resulting from both the measurement setup and the processes occurring in the data transfer to the online PWS platform. A double mass comparison with gauge-adjusted radar data shows that the median of the stations resembles the rainfall reference better than the real-time (unadjusted) radar product. Averaging nearby raw PWS measurements further improves the match with gauge-adjusted radar data in that area. These results confirm that the growing number of internet-connected PWSs could successfully be used for urban rainfall monitoring.

Intraseasonal rainfall variability in North Sumatra and its relationship with Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO)

The Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) is a mode of climate variability on intraseasonal timescales that dominantly occurs during Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. Its propagation and activity can be monitored by using indices namely as BSISO1 and BSISO2. The rainfall anomalies and extremes in North Sumatra may be potentially affected by BSISO due to its location within the path of their propagations. This study analyzes the relationship of BSISO with daily rainfall anomalies and extremes during different phases and types of BSISO. The results of spectral analysis show some agreements in the periodicity of BSISO1 and BSISO2 with daily rainfall anomaly. This study also identifies extreme rainfall during different phases of BSISO, showing the increase in the number of extreme rainfall events. High number of extreme rainfall events beyond thresholds at 90th and 95th percentiles are mostly found during phase 1, 2 and 3 of BSISO1 and phase 1 and 2 of BSISO2. Composite analysis conducted separately for spatial standard deviations of daily rainfall anomalies are also performed in this study. Similar results are found, where BSISO influences on rainfall variability especially during phase 1, 2 and 3 of BSISO1, and phase 1 and 2 of BSISO2.

Extreme rainfall events over Odisha state, India

Extreme rainfall events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods in Odisha. Objectives of the present study are to determine the trend of the extreme rainfall events during 1991-2014 and to compare the events between two periods before and after 1991. Block level daily rainfall data were used in identifying the extreme rainfall events, while district level aggregation was used in analysing the trend in three categories, viz., heavy, very heavy and extremely heavy rainfall as per criteria given by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The state as a whole received one extremely heavy, nine very heavy, and forty heavy rainfall events in a year. When percentage of occurrence of each category out of the total extreme events over different districts was considered, maximum % of extremely heavy rainfall occurred in Kalahandi (5.8%), very heavy rainfall in Bolangir (23.8%) and heavy rainfall in Keonjhargarh (85.4%). Trend analysis showed that number of extreme rainfall events increased in a few districts, namely, Bolangir, Nuapada, Keonjhargarh, Koraput, Malkangiri, and Nawarangapur and did not change in other districts. In Puri district, extremely heavy rainfall frequency decreased. New all-time record high one-day rainfall events were observed in twenty districts during 1992 to 2014, surpassing the earlier records, which could be attributed to climate change induced by global warming. Interior south Odisha was found as the hot spot for extreme rainfalls.

Extreme Rainfall in Katulampa Associated with the Atmospheric Circulation

Extreme rainfall will increase the river flow and it can be triggered by regional and global atmospheric circulation. Objective of this study is to analyze the intensity of rainfall in Katulampa and its associated with the atmospheric circulation. We found that the extreme rainfall threshold in Katulampa is 67mm in December-January-February (DJF) which is determined using 95% percentile method. The number of extreme rainfall events is 86 days during 1981 to 2013. The results showed that increasing of rainfall intensity in Katulampa is influenced by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and cold surge. MJO and cold surge modify the transport of water vapor and triggering the formation of convective clouds over the Java Island. Phase 2,3,4 and 5 of MJO have the highest impact on increasing rainfall intensity in Katulampa which is characterized by Outgoing Longwave Radiation (190 - 210W/m2). Meanwhile, the cold surge event has time lag about 1-2 days to increase the rainfall intensity in Katulampa.

Climate change and urban development in southern Africa: The case of Ekurhuleni Municipality (EMM) in South Africa

In this paper, outcomes from an investigation of plausible climate futures over the next century, and the potential impacts on water services including water resource management and disaster risk reduction, such as flash flooding in Ekurhuleni (EMM), are presented. Four key aspects are examined: (i) the extent to which the frequency of extreme rainfall events may change in South Africa as a result of climate change; (ii) the identification of some of the implications of extreme rainfall events for local government (iii) the identification of some of the challenges communities most at risk of flooding as a result of extreme rainfall events face, finally, (iv) the opportunities for future co-production of design methods and approaches to reduce current and future climate risks in EMM and elsewhere. Climate modelling conducted for this research indicates that it is plausible for an increase in the number of extreme rainfall events to occur over central and eastern South Africa over the next century. Over EMM, for example, an increase in extreme rainfall events is likely to be accompanied by flash flooding and a range of deleterious impacts, if planning and maintenance of the water services infrastructure is not improved – a result that is likely to be valid for all large metropolitan municipalities in the country. The paper provides some lessons learnt when trying to include a climate risk reduction approach into the planning of urban development.

Annually-resolved lake record of extreme hydro-meteorological events since AD 1347 in NE Iberian Peninsula

We present an annual reconstruction of extreme rainfall events interpreted from detrital layers and turbidites interbedded within a varved sediment record since the 14th century in Montcortés Lake (NE Spain, 1027 m a.s.l.). Clastic microfacies intercalated within the biochemical calcite varves were characterized and their depositional dynamics interpreted using high-resolution geochemical and sedimentological analyses. Annual number of detrital layers was compared against instrumental records of extreme daily rainfalls providing minimum rainfall thresholds and return periods associated to the identified types of clastic microfacies. Non-continuous detrital layers were deposited during rainfall events higher than 80 mm (>2-year return period) while graded detrital layers and turbidites were associated with higher magnitude rainfall events (>90 mm and >4-year return period). The frequency distribution of extreme hydro-meteorological events is not stationary and its pattern coincides with historical floods from the nearby Segre River. High frequency of heavy rainfalls occurred during the periods AD 1347–1400 and AD 1844–1894. A lower frequency of heavy rainfall was found during the periods AD 1441–1508, 1547–1592, 1656–1712, 1765–1822 and 1917–2012. The 20th century stands out as the longest interval within the studied period of very low number of extreme rainfall events. Variability in extreme rainfall events prior to the 20th century is in phase with solar activity, suggesting a mechanistic link in mid-latitude atmospheric circulation patterns that ceased during the 20th century.

Representation of Extreme Precipitation Events Leading to Opposite Climate Change Signals over the Congo Basin

We investigate the reasons for the opposite climate change signals in precipitation between the regional climate model REMO and its driving earth system model MPI-ESM over the greater Congo region. Three REMO simulations following three RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are conducted, and it is found that the opposite signals, with REMO showing a decrease and MPI-ESM an increase in the future precipitation, diverge strongly as we move from a less extreme to a more extreme scenario. It has been shown that REMO simulates a much higher number of extreme rainfall events than MPI-ESM. This results in higher surface runoff and thus less soil infiltration, which leads to lower amounts of soil moisture in REMO. This further leads to less moisture recycling via evapotranspiration, which in turn results in less precipitation over the region. In the presence of a strong radiative forcing, the hydrological cycle becomes less intense in REMO and a downward trend in hydrological variables is observed. Contrary to this, the higher amounts of soil-moisture due to the lack of extreme rainfall events in MPI-ESM enhance the hydrological cycle. In the presence of strong radiative forcing, higher amounts of soil moisture result in increased evapotranspiration which in turn results in the higher amount of precipitation. It is concluded that the land-atmosphere coupling over the Congo region is very sensitive to the change in soil moisture amounts, which is likely to play a major role in global warming conditions. Therefore, adequate and improved representation of soil processes in climate models is essential to study the effects of climate change. However, the better representation of extreme rainfall events in REMO compared to MPI-ESM can be regarded as an added value of the model.