Climate change and urban development in southern Africa: The case of Ekurhuleni Municipality (EMM) in South Africa

Sj Piketh,I Akoon,S Dunsmore,F Engelbrecht,C Culwick,C Vogel

doi:10.4314/wsa.v40i4.20

Abstract

In this paper, outcomes from an investigation of plausible climate futures over the next century, and the potential impacts on water services including water resource management and disaster risk reduction, such as flash flooding in Ekurhuleni (EMM), are presented. Four key aspects are examined: (i) the extent to which the frequency of extreme rainfall events may change in South Africa as a result of climate change; (ii) the identification of some of the implications of extreme rainfall events for local government (iii) the identification of some of the challenges communities most at risk of flooding as a result of extreme rainfall events face, finally, (iv) the opportunities for future co-production of design methods and approaches to reduce current and future climate risks in EMM and elsewhere. Climate modelling conducted for this research indicates that it is plausible for an increase in the number of extreme rainfall events to occur over central and eastern South Africa over the next century. Over EMM, for example, an increase in extreme rainfall events is likely to be accompanied by flash flooding and a range of deleterious impacts, if planning and maintenance of the water services infrastructure is not improved – a result that is likely to be valid for all large metropolitan municipalities in the country. The paper provides some lessons learnt when trying to include a climate risk reduction approach into the planning of urban development.

Highlights

Water services management is likely to be one of South Africa’s most complex problems for municipalities in the future
Local comparable work on climate risk reduction, similar to that undertaken in Cape Town (e.g., Cartwright, 2008; Cartwright et al, 2012), the Northern Cape (e.g. Mukheiber and Sparks 2006; Mukheiber, 2007) and Durban (e.g. Roberts, 2008, 2010a and 2010b), is largely absent in Gauteng
Water resource management is a crucial activity for all spheres of government in South Africa and is highly vulnerable to climate change (Bates et al, 2008; DWA, 2013)

Summary

Introduction

Water services management is likely to be one of South Africa’s most complex problems for municipalities in the future. Trends towards greater urbanisation and densification, coupled with environmental changes such as climate change and variability, are likely to exert additional pressure on water resources at the local level (Wilbanks et al, 2007; Bartlett et al, 2009; Carmin et al, 2009; Yohe and Leichenko, 2010). Careful management of water supply challenges and associated potential disaster risks that may arise with climate change will be essential (Wilbanks et al, 2007; Shama and Tomar, 2010; Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Government Office for Science, 2012). The South African Weather Service is, for example, developing timely flash-flooding guidance systems that can be used by practitioners to reduce the risks of floods (Poolman, 2014). Water resources management implications for the EMM are explored in this paper by considering the current management of flash-flooding episodes, perceptions of flood risk management and some adaptation options

Methods

Results

Conclusion