AbstractReducing seismicity during excavation is a challenge faced by mining and the associated slip development on a near‐excavation fault under deep‐mining stress conditions is considered as an analog for understanding earthquake initiation mechanisms. In this paper, the quasi‐static slipping on a dipping fault near a horizontal tunnel was numerically studied by incrementally increasing horizontal stress. The equilibrium of the fault, which obeys a slip‐weakening friction law, is formulated by a boundary integral approach. The calculated rupture size is a function of the dimensionless factors derived by scaling from geometrical, loading, and friction conditions. The results show that the rupture becomes runaway at a critical stress level and prior to this, the slip zone either extends continuously and aseismically or experiences finite rapid extensions. Energy dissipated in friction in the presence of tunnel‐induced stress heterogeneity can arrest fast rupture events resulting in regained equilibrium. The energy radiated from arrested events, using an energy budget analysis, depends on the resulting fault strength change, the rupture arrest length, and the strain energy change during the event. These preceding energy radiations can mitigate the magnitude of runaway events. As the critical slip‐weakening distance decreases, the critical stresses for nucleation of both runaway and arrested events are reduced, but the energy radiated by arrested events does not always decrease because the rupture arrest length varies. The results of this study may help identify the initiation mechanisms for runaway ruptures and assess the seismic potential of a rock mass during excavation.
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