Nuclear Phase-out Research Articles

Modelling the Energy Future of Switzerland after the Phase Out of Nuclear Power Plants

This paper evaluates the feasibility of future electricity scenarios drawn in the Swiss Energy Strategy 2050. These scenarios are characterized by a nuclear phase-out and high shares of renewables. We use Calliope, a linear programming model, special to model transition to renewables. Results show that it will be impossible to cover future demand only with domestic production, even if Switzerland reduces the consumption as envisaged. The daily profile of solar and limited capacity of wind lead to scenarios with maximum generation during peak hours. Moreover, we find a need to rearrange generation by flexible technologies to cover future demand.

ASTRID-like Fast Reactor Cores for Burning Plutonium and Minor Actinides

Abstract A reduction of nuclear waste by transmutation of trans-uranium elements (TRUs), such as Pu and Minor Actinides (MAs) contained in Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF), is a goal for future reactors. In general, countries with on-going nuclear scenarios would profit from MA mass stabilization, while transmutation of Pu and MAs from SNF could be desired in countries in nuclear phase-out. Both missions can be accomplished by employing fast reactors loaded with fuels containing different amounts of Pu and MAs in a closed (or partially closed) fuel cycle. In this paper, two 1200 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor cores, based on the French ASTRID design, are proposed for burning TRUs (phase-out option) or only MAs (on-going option). Main attention is focused on the safety and on the transmutation performance. The coolant void effect, in the region including the core and the plenum above and the Doppler constant of both systems are negative also with irradiated fuel. The conversion ratios (CR) of the Pu and MA burners are in the ranges from 0.6 to 0.7 and from 0.5 to 0.6, respectively. These results show a large safety and transmutation potential of ASTRID type reactors.

Long-term scenario analysis of nuclear energy and variable renewables in Japan's power generation mix considering flexible power resources

This paper comprehensively analyzes an optimal deployment of variable renewables (VRs) with flexible power resources, such as electricity saving and rechargeable battery, in Japan's long-term power generation mix to 2050 under possible nuclear energy scenarios. The study is performed, employing a dynamic high time-resolution optimal power generation mix model which is formulated as a large-scale linear programming model. Simulation results show that both complete nuclear phase-out and carbon reduction by 80% in 2050 from 2010 encourage VR expansion in the country's power system and cause a quadruple increase of power generation cost at 2050 compared with that under current nuclear capacity and no carbon regulation policy; long-term cost reduction of VR energy system is necessary if VR is positioned as a mainstream for future sustainable power supply. Secondly, higher levels of VR integration decrease the capacity factor of LNG combined cycle (LNGCC), which implies the challenge to assure LNGCC serving as a remunerated ramp generator for VR intermittency. Finally, as an economically optimal solution, electricity saving serves as an important option to integrate massive VR and to treat a seasonal imbalance of its power output in an efficient way.

Risk governance as seen from Germany’s Nuclear Phase-out

Risk governance as seen from Germany’s Nuclear Phase-out

Europe's Road to a Sustainable Energy-Supply System

This paper examines how power generation in the European Union (EU) can be modernised along the lines of a sustainable solution pursuant to WEC principles. This means a re-design with the goal of implementing the EU's internal market and far-reaching decarbonisation. The example of Germany's energy U-turn shows one possible route, one that is marked by a massive expansion of renewable energies coupled with a phase-out of nuclear energy. Other European countries are pursuing different strategies. Current developments show that solutions chosen in any one country have direct implications for its neighbours. This is because electricity markets are continuing to grow together. In a spirit of solidarity between the member states, the closest possible review and coordination and/or harmonisation of policies are needed. This will allow the conversion process, which is associated with macroeconomic costs, to be shaped on a cost-efficient basis. For utilities, the energy turnaround brings with it a multitude of challenges. Utilities must convert their generation portfolio and, in particular, perceptibly increase their share of low-carbon energies. Conventional power plants must be designed flexibly, so that – besides volatility in consumption – fluctuations in the feed-in of renewable energies, too, can be offset. In addition to this technical requirement, energy suppliers are facing a situation in which the utilisation period of conventional power stations is falling as a result of the growing feed-in of renewables. On top of this comes the fact that wholesale electricity prices on sunny days are pushed down despite high demand owing to the growing feed-in of electricity from photovoltaic systems. Both factors limit the options for obtaining the necessary contributions to cover fixed costs on the market. This raises the issue of the market design of the future. The launch of capacity mechanisms, ie remuneration for the product ‘firm capacity’ supplementing the income obtained from the sale of electricity, could help. At the same time, capacity mechanisms could be a suitable instrument for coping with power failures. This brings politics into the game. With electricity markets growing together, the central requirement to be met by a capacity-market mechanism is that harmonised regulations, a discrimination-free design and technology neutrality are ensured throughout Europe. This is regarded as indispensable for creating a level playing field. Also as regards reaching the goal of Europe's climate policy, viz. a lowering of greenhouse-gas emissions by at least 80% by 2050 compared with 1990, the rule must be to prioritise European solutions over any national regulation. In addition, a procedure in climate policy that is more stringently reviewed at international level is considered unavoidable. Cost efficiency in reaching climate goals means backing market instruments. CO2 emissions trading should be accorded the role of leading instrument in climate protection. The instrument can be used to achieve agreed quantity targets for CO2 emissions reliably and at the least possible costs. One argument in favour of anchoring the trade in emissions as leading instrument to shape a sustainable energy supply is that the costs of transforming the energy system can be kept within bounds. Renewable energies enter the system with rising CO2 prices on a market-driven basis. The various technologies compete with one another and with other CO2- avoidance technologies, like increases in efficiency, utilisation of nuclear energy and CO2 capture and storage (CCS). One current study says that the expected growth in electricity consumption in the EU by some 1,000 TWh by 2050 will be covered by adding renewable energies if the focus is on trade in emissions as leading instrument. This doubles the share of renewables in power generation by 2050 to about 50%. After 2030, with rising CO2 prices, CCS, too, becomes profitable. If we were to rule out this technology for lowering CO2, much higher costs for the aimed-at decarbonisation of power generation would have to be accepted.

Lessons not yet learned from the Fukushima disaster

The Fukushima nuclear catastrophe has led to a wide-spread international discussion on how seismic and tsunami hazards can be better predicted and adverse consequences be prevented. In some countries the event led to the complete phase-out of nuclear energy. The lessons drawn by different organisations including earth scientists, earthquake engineers, non-governmental and governmental organisations will be reviewed from an independent position. This review captures the following areas: (1) Hazard assessment, (2) Engineering design and defence in depth concepts, (3) Emergency preparedness. It is shown that not all important lessons from the catastrophe have been drawn, because some of the root causes of the accident are not yet addressed. Especially the need of a holistic approach towards hazard assessment and the implementation of defence in depth and diversity of design principles for critical infrastructures like nuclear power plants hast to be stronger emphasized to prevent similar disasters.

Environmental impacts of decommissioning nuclear power plants: methodical challenges, case study, and implications

Purpose Environmental impacts of the decommissioning of nuclear power plants are brought into focus by the nuclear phase-out in Germany and a worldwide growing number of decommissioning projects. So far, life cycle assessments of decommissioning nuclear power plants have been conducted very rarely or are based on rather uncertain assumptions. Against this background, environmental impacts of the ongoing decommissioning of the nuclear power plant in Lubmin (KGR), Germany are examined. Methodological aspects like transferability to other decommissioning projects as well as influence of assumptions about the lifespan of a power plant are discussed.

Energy market impacts of nuclear power phase-out policies

Since the Fukushima disaster in Japan in March 2011, safety concerns have escalated and policies toward nuclear power are being reconsidered in several countries. This article presents a study of the upward pressure on regional electricity prices from nuclear power phase out in four scenarios with various levels of ambition to scale down the nuclear power industry. We use a global general equilibrium model to calculate regional electricity prices that are matching demand with the constrained power supply after the nuclear power phase out. Nuclear power exit in Germany and Switzerland might increase electricity prices in Europe moderately by 2–3 % early on to 4–5 % by 2035 if transmission capacity within the region is sufficient. In a gradual and comprehensive phase out of plants built before 2011, North America, Europe, and Japan face an upward pressure on electricity prices in the range of 23–28 % towards 2035, representing the incentives for further investments in any kind of electricity.

Feasibility Analysis of Alternative Electricity Systems by 2030 in the Post-Fukushima Era

The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 had an extensive impact on the national electricity plans. This paper outlines alternative electricity scenarios that meet the goals of nuclear phase-out and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction. This paper also analyzes the results of each scenario in respect to the electricity mix, GHG emissions, costs and employment effects. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) model was used to simulate the annual electricity demand and supply system from 2011 to 2030. The reference year was 2009. Scenarios are reference (where existing plans are continued), A1, A2, B1, B2, and C2 (where the levels of demand management and nuclear phase-out are different). The share of renewable energy in the electricity mix in 2030 for each scenario will be increased from about 1% in 2009 to 8% in the reference scenario and from 11% to 31% in five alternative scenarios. Total cumulative cost increases up to 14% more than the reference scenario by replacing nuclear power plants with renewable energy in alternative scenarios could be affordable. Deploying enough renewable energy to meet such targets requires a roadmap for electricity price realization, expansion of research, development and deployment for renewable energy technologies, establishment of an organization dedicated to renewable energy, and ambitious targets for renewable energy.

Shifting Currents : Challenges and Solutions for the Planned Evolution of the German Transmission Grid

Immediately after the Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011, the German federal government imposed a moratorium on nuclear power plants. In doing so, it shifted the fundamental transformation of the electrical system in the Federal Republic of Germany into top gear. Germany's neighboring countries did not remain unaffected. Moving up the deadline for the nuclear phaseout increased the pace of the already approved development of renewable energy sources (RESs) to counter climate change. Moreover, Germany also increased its efforts to manage energy more efficiently and to decrease its dependence on foreign fossil fuels.

Germany's Nuclear Phase-out: Sensitivities and Impacts on Electricity Prices and CO2 Emissions

Following the nuclear meltdown in Fukushima Daiichi, in summer 2011 the German parliament decided to phase-out nuclear power by 2022. When this decision was taken, a number of model-based analyses investigated the influence this decision would have on electricity prices and CO2 emissions. They concluded that CO2 emissions would be kept at levels that are in line with national reduction targets but that the phase-out would result in an increase in wholesale electricity prices. We show by means of a sensitivity analysis that results crucially hinge on some fundamental model assumptions. These particularly include the development of fossil fuel and CO2 prices, which have a much larger influence on the electricity price than the nuclear phase-out itself. Since the decision of the nuclear phase-out, CO 2 prices have decreased and deployment of renewables increased ever since. This partly counteracts the negative effect of the nuclear phase-out on electricity prices, but on the other hand challenges the mitigation of CO 2 emissions and security of supply. This underlines the importance of sensitivity analyses and suggests that policy-makers need to consider scenarios that analyze the whole range of possible future developments.

Use of Augmented Reality Methods to Support Legal Conflicts in the Planning Process for Wind Turbines Using the Example of the Landscape Conservation Area “Eulenkopf and Surroundings”

The world’s growing energy demand poses a serious problem. At the same time fossil fuels are finite, which we must work against. Therefore, the Federal Government of Germany has set itself the goal to push forward the use of renewable energy in order to completely do without the generation of nuclear energy by 2023. There are, however, no specific guidelines from the European Directive on the promotion of electricity from renewable energy sources for the internal electricity market regarding how high each share of the different production method should be and, above all, which specific aim should be achieved by the share of wind energy. Nevertheless, it presents a crucial step toward a nuclear phaseout and a concomitant change of course of the Federal Government of Germany in the spring of 2011 regarding the expansion of renewable energy, taking the nuclear catastrophe in Fukushima into account. Using new legal planning approaches, also including the area of Rhineland-Palatinate, opportunities should be provided to make previously protected land available for setting up facilities for the generation of renewable energy. However, it is important to examine the legal situation regarding the installation of these kinds of constructions more detailed, as no general statements can be made. This will be illustrated using the example of the landscape conservation area “Eulenkopf and surrounding area” in the district of Kaiserslautern. The stated goal of the Social Democrat/Green coalition of the federal state government of Rhineland-Palatinate is to considerably expand the generation of electricity from renewable energy sources so that by 2030 at least the entire electricity demand can be covered by those. Due to the enormous potential of wind power, it is therefore necessary to quintuple its share of electricity generation by 2020, compared to 2011 numbers. In order to achieve the desired political objectives, by 2030 the number of turbines has to be increased to around 2650, representing a capacity of 7500 MW. This increase gives reason for boundary conditions to manage the generation of wind energy to be adjusted. This is intended to facilitate management and simultaneously minimise negative effects, such as the “sprawling” of wind turbines.

Атомная энергетика ЕС: экономика против экологии

The article analyses economic roots of the recent reassessment of the role of nuclear energy in the EU with the global economic crisis as a background. Despite the huge political impact caused by Fukushima disaster the majority of EU member states don’t commit to nuclear power phase-out or to a major curb of nuclear development. This can be explained by the high economic viability of NPPs’ operation as well as by huge monetary expenses and environmental consequences associated with the phase out. Most openly this can be seen in the case of Germany.

Energy-sensitive control strategies for decoupled production systems

Rising demand for energy caused by emerging economies, decreasing oil stocks, and the intended nuclear phase-out in some industrial countries has led to new problems concerning sufficient and on time energy supply. Since availability of energy has a dramatic influence on production, energy has to be considered a process prerequisite instead of a production-related overhead topic, as usually done. Prospective considerations in MES and ERP systems will need to treat energy as a limited resource just like machine capacity and time. Hence, both products and processes will compete for energy. This paper discusses selected production control tasks, methods, and strategies for discrete part manufacturing. It aims at identifying the extent to which energy features can be implemented next to established logistic goals. Based on first research activities, new approaches were derived in order to develop tools for an energy-sensitive production control focusing on limited capacity of production resources.

A Model-based Approach to Energy-saving Manufacturing Control Strategies

The increased energy demand in emerging markets, dwindling oil reserves and the planned nuclear phase-out in various industry nations cause energy prices to increase significantly. In order to sustain their competitiveness, companies need to mind their energy consumption. Through levelling and temporal shifting of power demands, the operative control of factories allows for an energy cost minimised production. Hence, energy efficiency becomes an organisational aim in all management levels of an enterprise which needs to be included as an optimisation objective in MES. This paper discusses model-based manufacturing control strategies, which provide energy-saving resource scheduling and order dispatch in automotive plants.

Global implications of joint fossil fuel subsidy reform and nuclear phase-out: an economic analysis

This paper uses the OECD’s global recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model ENVLinkages to examine the mid-term economic consequences and the optimal energy supply mix adjustments of a simultaneous implementation of i) a progressive fossil fuel subsidy reform in emerging and developing economies and ii) a progressive phase out of nuclear energy, mostly affecting OECD countries, China and Russia. The analysis is then transposed in the context of climate change mitigation to depict the corresponding implications for CO2 emissions, to assess the interactions between the two energy policies, and to derive how the associated costs are affected by the different policies. The phase-out scenario projects a nuclear capacity halved by 2035 as compared to the Baseline, corresponding to $120 billion losses in value-added of the nuclear industry for that year. The nuclear phase-out leaves GDP and real household consumption marginally affected in energy importing countries. A multilateral subsidy reform is more likely to affect international fossil fuel prices and alter patterns of global energy use. The fossil fuel subsidy reform, when implemented together with nuclear phase-out, more than offsets negative consequences on household consumption but still leads to a decrease in global CO2 emissions. The combined policies help save the equivalent of current energy consumption in the Middle East. Combining a climate policy, an effective fossil fuel subsidy reform, even with a lower nuclear share in the power mix, brings about multiple benefits to OECD countries which reduce their energy bill and achieve large climate change mitigation at lower cost.

Explaining the ending of Sweden's nuclear phase-out policy: a new approach by referring to the advocacy coalition framework theory

Sweden has been a role model for many European countries as regards the phasing-out of nuclear power. Nuclear power policy became a strong political issue in 1976, much earlier than in other countries. Sweden was the first country in the world to decide to phase out nuclear energy. A non-binding referendum on this subject was held in 1980. As a result, parliament decided to ban nuclear power after 2010. The main aim of the paper is to understand the complex process of policy change throughout various periods in the Swedish phase-out policy by applying the advocacy coalition framework (ACF) theory. The ACF was designed in 1988 by Sabatier and Jenkins Smith to explain, for example, coalition structure and behavior, belief and policy change in controversial/debatable policy subsystems. In February 2009, the Swedish center-right alliance announced a position paper regarding plans to overturn a 30-year ban on new atomic plants, as a part of a new impulse to increase energy security and fight global warming. Based on a decision taken in the Swedish Parliament in June 2010, when a small majority approved these two aims, Sweden reversed its nuclear power phase-out. This paper will analyze the most relevant factors that led to such a radical policy change.

An Integrated Approach to Model Redispatch and to Assess Potential Benefits from Market Splitting in Germany

Future congestion management is one of the major market design issues in the European electricity market. In the light of the sharp increase in redispatch measures seen within the last years, the importance of an efficient management of network congestion increases particularly in Germany. Against this background, we develop an integrated approach to model (re)dispatch for Germany in detail while considering interactions with neighbouring countries. Compared to 2011, our findings indicate a much more critical network situation in Germany for 2015. We identify increased RES production, resulting imports and exports, delays in grid extension and the impacts of the nuclear phase-out (leading to an amplified north-south congestion problem) as main drivers for the nearly doubling of redispatch volumes in 2015. We show that market splitting can potentially contribute to a secure grid operation and leads to a significant reduction of redispatch volumes (59%) according our model calculations. We state that market splitting can of course not be the 'one and only solution' but an interim approach to manage upcoming congestion in Germany in times when grid expansion has not yet been completed and that the implementation of market splitting can also serve as an alternative to grid extension within less congested areas.

Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power

The impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy is assessed for the costs of meeting international climate policy targets for 2020. The analysis is based on simulations with the Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) global energy systems model. The phase-out of nuclear power increases GHG emissions by 2% globally and 7% for Annex I countries. The price of certificates increases by 24% and total compliance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%. Compliance costs increase most for Japan (+58%) and the US (+28%). China, India, and Russia benefit from a global nuclear phase-out because revenues from higher trading volumes of certificates outweigh the costs of losing nuclear power as a mitigation option. Even for countries that face a relatively large increase in compliance costs, such as Japan, the nuclear phase-out implies a relatively small overall economic burden. When trading of certificates is available only to countries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a larger increase in the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia). Results from sensitivity analyses suggest that the findings are fairly robust to alternative burden-sharing schemes and emission target levels.Policy relevanceNew calculations show that the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy on global mitigation costs is quite modest, but that there are substantial differences for countries. Total compliance costs increase the most for Japan and the US, but these are rather marginal if measured in terms of GDP. China, India, and Russia benefit from a nuclear phase-out because their additional revenues from selling certificates outweigh the additional costs of losing nuclear power as a mitigation option. The findings also highlight the importance of certificate trading to achieving climate targets in a cost-efficient way. If Japan or the US were to be banned from certificate trading, along with other countries, because of their non-participation in a second Kyoto period, then their compliance costs would increase substantially under a nuclear phase-out. The EU, however, would benefit because certificate prices would be lower.

Nuclear Accidents and Policy: Notes on Public Perception

Major nuclear accidents as recently in Fukushima set nuclear power plant security at the top of the public agenda. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel we analyze the effects of the Fukushima accident and a subsequent government decision on nuclear power phase-out on several measures of subjective perception in Germany. In the light of current political debates about the strategic orientation of this energy turnaround, such an analysis is of particular interest since non-pecuniary gains in measures of subjective perception might provide further aspects to be taken into consideration when evaluating the economic costs of the policy. We find that the Fukushima accident increases the probability to report greater worries about the environment. Furthermore, we find evidence for a decrease in the probability to be very worried about the security of nuclear power plants as well as for an increase in reported levels of subjective well-being following the government's resolution on nuclear phase-out. Finally we find that the probabilities of reporting very high concerns are related to the distance between the respondents' place of residence and the nearest nuclear power station.