Nuclear Phase-out Research Articles

The transition to nuclear energy in Bangladesh: The interplay between climate-related urgency and geopolitical factors

One of the significant issues in contemporary international politics is to examine the contexts of energy usage of different countries, keeping in mind the looming climate threat. Energy transition not only highlights the central role of energy usage but also exposes the vulnerability caused by it. Given the context, Bangladesh has adopted nuclear technology to meet its economic demand and environmental requirements. As a middle-income country, eyeing to graduate to a developing nation by 2041, its choice of exploring nuclear energy has exposed the country to the question of the rationality of the decision. Nuclear energy has a distinguished history that accommodates several debates about its safety and sustainability. Though many developed countries are planning for a nuclear phase-out, Bangladesh’s decision merits attention and explanation to embrace such a stand. Often, the economic priorities have been attached to Bangladesh’s decision for the energy transition, while the discussion about nuclear energy in Bangladesh ignores the geopolitical purposes and international political agenda. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the internal and external climate-related urgency, and geopolitical concerns responsible for such a transition, which have remained unexplored in the existing literature.

The transition to nuclear energy in Bangladesh: The interplay between climate-related urgency and geopolitical factors

One of the significant issues in contemporary international politics is to examine the contexts of energy usage of different countries, keeping in mind the looming climate threat. Energy transition not only highlights the central role of energy usage but also exposes the vulnerability caused by it. Given the context, Bangladesh has adopted nuclear technology to meet its economic demand and environmental requirements. As a middle-income country, eyeing to graduate to a developing nation by 2041, its choice of exploring nuclear energy has exposed the country to the question of the rationality of the decision. Nuclear energy has a distinguished history that accommodates several debates about its safety and sustainability. Though many developed countries are planning for a nuclear phase-out, Bangladesh’s decision merits attention and explanation to embrace such a stand. Often, the economic priorities have been attached to Bangladesh’s decision for the energy transition, while the discussion about nuclear energy in Bangladesh ignores the geopolitical purposes and international political agenda. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the internal and external climate-related urgency, and geopolitical concerns responsible for such a transition, which have remained unexplored in the existing literature.

Development and evaluation of parallel simulated annealing algorithm for reactor core optimization problems

Background The optimization of core loading patterns in nuclear reactors is one of the most studied optimization problems in nuclear engineering due to the enormous economical and safety benefits. Various algorithms such as Genetic Algorithms (GA), Simulated Annealing (SA), and Parallel Simulated Annealing (PSA) have been used in the past for such problems. Methods In this work, a PSA algorithm was developed and integrated into the Modularly Implemented Design Assistance Suite (MIDAS), a framework developed at North Carolina State University to solve nuclear engineering problems. The effectiveness of PSA was compared against the GA and SA algorithms available in MIDAS for a Pressurized Water Reactor first cycle core loading pattern optimization problem. Results PSA consistently generates more optimal solutions than SA and GA by having the higher average fitness, and showing less variance in its performance and thus being more robust. This provides confidence in the PSA implementation within MIDAS. The obtained loading pattern positions high reactive fuel in peripheral locations and low reactive fuel towards the centers in a strategy resembling both Out-In-Checkboard and L3P loading patter approaches. Conclusions Future studies will involve applying the PSA algorithm to other optimization studies in larger combinatorial spaces, such as in multi-cycle optimization problems.

Activity measurements and calculations for gamma-emitting radionuclides in concrete drill cores of unit 2 of the Greifswald NPP

Due to Germany’s nuclear phase-out, decommissioning and final disposal of construction materials of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) become increasingly important. The reliable determination of radionuclides produced by neutron activation, the activity as a function of time since shutdown and investigation of subsequent radionuclide mobility are subject of a research project. Drill cores of the concrete shielding of unit 2 of the Greifswald NPP were retrieved. Specific activities of gamma emitters and the elemental composition were measured. The radiation transport code MCNP 6 was used for the calculation of spectral neutron fluences. A neutron radiation field calculation reveals that the maximum neutron fluence at the concrete component is located in the floor just below the RPV. The concrete structures closest to the reactor core are shielded efficiently against neutron radiation by the annular water tank. Measured and calculated specific activities of 152Eu, 154Eu and 60Co for the cement screed at the position of the maximum neutron fluence are surprisingly low. A specific exemption (i.e. release from radiation protection surveillance but mandatory for final disposal) of the screed sample according to Germany’s Radiation Protection Ordnance is expected to be possible approximately 4 decades after the shutdown of the NPP.

The transition to nuclear energy in Bangladesh: The interplay between climate-related urgency and geopolitical factors

One of the significant issues in contemporary international politics is to examine the contexts of energy usage of different countries, keeping in mind the looming climate threat. Energy transition not only highlights the central role of energy usage but also exposes the vulnerability caused by it. Given the context, Bangladesh has adopted nuclear technology to meet its economic demand and environmental requirements. As a middle-income country, eyeing to graduate to a developing nation by 2041, its choice of exploring nuclear energy has exposed the country to the question of the rationality of the decision. Nuclear energy has a distinguished history that accommodates several debates about its safety and sustainability. Though many developed countries are planning for a nuclear phase-out, Bangladesh’s decision merits attention and explanation to embrace such a stand. Often, the economic priorities have been attached to Bangladesh’s decision for the energy transition, while the discussion about nuclear energy in Bangladesh ignores the geopolitical purposes and international political agenda. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the internal and external climate-related urgency, and geopolitical concerns responsible for such a transition, which have remained unexplored in the existing literature.

On the preferences for an environmentally friendly and fair energy transition: A stated choice experiment for Germany

Based on data from a stated choice experiment in Germany, this paper empirically examines individual preferences for several components of three hypothetical energy policy packages and the status quo policy package of the German energy transition. Our econometric analysis with mixed logit and latent class logit models reveals a high preference for higher targeted shares of renewable energies and for the nuclear phase-out. With respect to the allocation of energy policy costs, we find that the polluter-pays rule is significantly preferred over the ability-to-pay and equal-pay rules. Furthermore, citizens have a significantly positive preference for the financial support for low-income households. These results suggest a strong support for environmentally ambitious energy policy measures that are additionally associated with a fair burden sharing of the corresponding costs. In terms of preference heterogeneity, our empirical analysis reveals that political identification plays an important role for the preferences for environmentally ambitious energy policy measures. Furthermore, high equivalent income has a significantly negative effect on the preferences for the ability-to-pay rule, suggesting the relevance of economic self-interest. In addition, our empirical analysis reveals a strong relevance of trust (besides altruism and perceived unfair cost distribution) for the preferences for social cushioning. This result suggests that it is important for policymakers to convince the population that such social cushioning measures are actually implemented.

The Effect of the Spanish Nuclear Phase-out on the Electricity Market

Portugal and Spain are integrated into what is known as the Iberian Electricity Market. Spain participates in this market with significant contribution of energy produced by nuclear plants. In 2022, nuclear energy accounted for 22 % of the total energy generated in Spain. Nuclear power plants sell their energy largely through bilateral contracts, and approximately 20 % is offered in the day-ahead electricity market. By 2035, Spain will phase-out nuclear power producing a structural change of its generation mix. In this paper, we investigate the effect on the day-ahead Iberian electricity market that the gradual removal of nuclear power plants will have on the daily electricity market. The methodology is based on a ceteris paribus approach, where generation conditions are modified by removing nuclear plants and keeping the rest of the variables constant (demand and other generation). Under these conditions, the market is reproduced, estimating how electricity prices change in the day-ahead electricity market. To evaluate the market electricity prices under this new scenario with a total or a partial elimination of nuclear energy generation, it is necessary to use a market model. The existing literature shows various approaches to replicate the electricity market, among which are agent-base modelling, optimization algorithms, artificial intelligence techniques or metaheuristic merit-order methods. Our approach is based on the latter methods, by using actual generation and demand data, the new market generation and demand curves are reconstructed and the new clearing price is obtained. For the most conservative scenario, the results show a price increase of more than 5 % for the first 6 months of 2021. The reason for this increase is that nuclear generation participates in the market by offering its energy at prices close to zero. When this generation is withdrawn, there is a shift to the left of the hourly generation curve producing a new market equilibrium at a point of higher price and lower energy.

A Planner-Trader Decomposition for Multimarket Hydro Scheduling

Multimarket Multireservoir Hydro Scheduling Peak/off-peak spreads on European electricity forward and spot markets are eroding due to the ongoing nuclear phaseout in Germany and the steady growth in photovoltaic capacity. The reduced profitability of peak/off-peak arbitrage forces hydropower producers to recover part of their original profitability on the reserve markets. In their paper titled “A Planner-Trader Decomposition for Multimarket Hydro Scheduling” Schindler, Rujeerapaiboon, Kuhn, and Wiesemann propose a bi-layer stochastic programming framework that jointly optimizes the trading strategies on the spot and reserve markets. The model faithfully accounts for uncertainty in electricity prices, water inflows, and reserve activations, and it ensures that the hydropower producers can fulfill their market commitments under any circumstances. The model is numerically challenging due to the various sources of uncertainty that are revealed at different time scales and that affect the problem's objective function and constraints, and the authors propose a new planner-trader decomposition and an information restriction for its solution. A case study based on real data from Austria reveals significant benefits of simultaneously participating in the spot and the reserve markets.

Bringing the political system (back) into social tipping relevant to sustainability

Recently, social tipping dynamics relevant to sustainability have become the subject of a growing literature. Numerous publications seek to bring the concept of tipping (back) from the natural to the social system and make important contributions to its conceptualization, definition, and constant refinement. Yet, and despite its wide array, the current literature has a blind spot: it does neither adequately integrate, conceptualize, nor measure the role of the political sphere and thus underestimates its importance for social tipping processes. This is the starting point of our contribution, which not only emphasizes the political dimension's relevance to the analysis of social tipping, but also proposes two main ways to integrate it into such analyses: by conceptualizing the political sphere either as a trigger of social tipping, or as an element that can tip itself. Moreover, to capture the complexity of the political sphere, namely the interaction between networks, actors, and processes, we suggest analysing the political sphere along its three elements: polity, politics, and policy. We illustrate the empirical benefit of these refinements by presenting a comparative case study of the nuclear phase-out in Germany and Switzerland.

Comparing the German exit of nuclear and coal: Assessing historical pathways and energy phase-out dimensions

It is crucial to understand the dynamics of phase-outs of non-sustainable energy carriers to accelerate the decarbonization of the economy in hindsight of the climate crisis. Taking the German example, the exit of nuclear energy as a successful policy is compared to the phase-out process of coal power to provide new insights on such policy change. The historical pathway of each phase-out policy is examined as the basis for the comparison. In general, the German nuclear phase-out is driven by a strong anti-nuclear sentiment in the public and as a political strategy whereas for the exit of coal the socio-ecological movement, a severe drought in 2018 and a deep institutional academic and non-academic knowledge transfer for the climate crisis were the main drivers. The examination together with the deductive thematic analysis enables then to identify commonalities and differences of the two phase-out policies that manifest themselves in the following dimensions: institutionalization, visibility of impacts, public image, and incumbency. The ethics committee of the German nuclear phase-out in 2011 was a pivotal institutionalized actor in fostering the final exit. Its reasoning resonated in the public delightfully as it changed nuclear powers image and provided the argumentative pathway for the then chancellor Merkel to turn around her energy politics. Based on the acquired learnings, a convocation of an ethics committee to evaluate the moral implications of the climate crisis is able to foster the acceleration of future fossil fuel phase-outs.

Economic and environmental implications of the nuclear power phase-out in Belgium: Insights from time-series models and a partial differential equations algorithm

By 2025, Belgium will phase-out nuclear power. Unassessed so far, this policy reform may modify the economic and environmental channels through which energy and society interfere in this country. In this paper, we investigate whether this structural energy change may adversely impact the growth of the Belgian economy (i) and its ability to meet its long-term greenhouse gas emission targets (ii). A multivariate model comprising production factors (labor, capital, and exports), nuclear and renewable energy uses, total primary energy supply, economic growth, and CO2 emissions from the power and heating sector is combined with real time-series data spanning the 1974–2019 period. The analysis consists in sequentially assessing two distinct nexuses (energy-economy and energy-economy-environment) over reduced- and augmented frameworks (excluding and including nuclear energy), and through a two-stage empirical strategy: time-series econometric estimations (Toda-Yamamoto causality test, Impulse Response Functions (IRFs), and the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and Machine Learning (ML) experiments with a Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) algorithm. For robustness purposes, we conduct two seminal tests which relate to dynamic predictive processes (T-Mat and Verticality tests). Besides confirming the time-series findings, our ML results highlight the necessity to timely manage the process of nuclear phase-out, along with a progressive deployment of installed renewable energy capacity. This should avoid additional economic costs, energy security threats, and undermining of climate targets. In doing so, this study combines macro-level nexus investigations with the politics and institutional determinants of nuclear energy reliance and seeks to bring inclusive knowledge on this topic.

A Decarbonization Roadmap for Taiwan and Its Energy Policy Implications

The objective of this paper is to propose a decarbonization roadmap for Taiwan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 by analyzing the status of fossil and non-fossil energies, screening applicable decarbonization technologies for their effectiveness, and then proposing an energy mix for the future. The novelty of this work lies in the screening process, which considers six, instead of one or two, categories: sustainability, security, affordability, reliability, technology readiness, and technology impact. Based on this screening, a decarbonization roadmap is proposed and compared with the announced net-zero emissions (NZE) plan. The proposed roadmap requires renewable electricity to grow at an average annual growth rate of 7% between now and 2050, instead of the 10.1% required by the NZE plan, which is more achievable based on issues identified with renewable energies during our screening exercise. The proposed roadmap improves on the NZE plan in the following aspects: (1) using clean coal technologies to decarbonize existing coal-fired power plants, (2) relying more on gas than wind and solar energies to replace coal and nuclear energy for power generation, (3) accelerating carbon capture and storage (CCS) implementation, (4) delaying the phaseout of nuclear energy until 2050, and (5) using blue instead of green hydrogen to decarbonize the transport and industry sectors. Implications of this roadmap for future research and development and energy policies are also discussed.

Nuclear power in jeopardy: The negative relationships between greenhouse gas/fine dust concerns and nuclear power acceptance in South Korea

South Korea, a country that built a world-class nuclear power infrastructure, shifted to a nuclear phase-out during the previous government's reign. This shift was pursued as part of a larger task of electricity mix reform, and one of the integral motives for such reform is addressing greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine dust problems. Thus, verifying the relationships between the public's concerns about GHG/fine dust and their acceptance of nuclear power generation is essential for designing public communication strategies to revive nuclear power under the ongoing environmental regime. Our analysis using a nationwide survey sample of South Korea (N = 1009, through proportionated quota sampling method) showed that the more people are concerned about GHG and fine dust, the less they accept nuclear power. These relationships held even after controlling for the effect of a third variable—energy-related environmentalism. This finding means that despite past communication efforts positioning nuclear power as a generation source that can mitigate GHG/fine dust emissions and the widely accepted scientific evidence that supports such positioning, nuclear power in Korea is in jeopardy. Our finding provides implications for public communications and fundamental knowledge for research on the determinants of nuclear power acceptance.

The transition to nuclear energy in Bangladesh: The interplay between internal and geopolitical factors

One of the significant issues in contemporary international politics is to examine the contexts of energy usage of different countries, keeping in mind the looming climate threat. Energy transition not only highlights the central role of energy usage but also exposes the vulnerability caused by it. Given the context, Bangladesh has adopted nuclear technology to meet its economic demand and environmental requirements. As a middle-income country, eyeing to graduate to a developing nation by 2041, its choice of exploring nuclear energy has exposed the country to the question of the rationality of the decision. Nuclear energy has a distinguished history that accommodates several debates about its safety and sustainability. Though many developed countries are planning for a nuclear phase-out, Bangladesh’s decision merits attention and explanation to embrace such a stand. Often, the economic priorities have been attached to Bangladesh’s decision for the energy transition, while the discussion about nuclear energy in Bangladesh ignores the geopolitical purposes and international political agenda. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the geopolitical concerns and the role of internal factors responsible for such a transition, which have remained unexplored in the existing literature.

The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out

Abstract Many countries have phased out nuclear power in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the shutdown of more than half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a machine learning approach to estimate the impacts of the phase-out policy. We find that reductions in nuclear electricity production were offset primarily by increases in coal-fired production and net electricity imports. Our estimates of the social cost of the phase-out range from €3 to €8 billion per year. The majority of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Policymakers would have to significantly overestimate the risk or cost of a nuclear accident to conclude that the benefits of the phase-out exceed its social costs. We discuss the likely role of behavioral biases in this setting, and highlight the importance of ensuring that policymakers and the public are informed about the health effects of local air pollution.

Decarbonization strategies for Switzerland considering embedded greenhouse gas emissions in electricity imports

Decarbonizing the energy system by electrification of heat and transport is only effective when using low-carbon electricity sources. As many countries such as Switzerland rely on imported electricity to meet their demand, the greenhouse gas (GHG) content of electricity imports must be correctly accounted for. By assuming an average GHG content for each amount imported, impacts of electricity required in peak periods are underestimated because additional (marginal) demand is primarily met with fossil power plants. This study employs a model to capture marginal GHG contents of imported electricity from a direct and indirect (life-cycle) perspective at an hourly resolution. Implications on GHG are explored for various electricity demand and supply scenarios including electrification of heat and transport, large-scale expansion of renewables, and nuclear phase-out. We find that depending on the scenario, the average GHG intensity of consumed electricity may double, while diurnal and seasonal variations are even larger. Nonetheless, results show substantial GHG mitigation of up to 45% with electrification in case of deploying a diversified electricity generation portfolio including photovoltaics and wind. For optimal GHG mitigation, short-term flexibility as provided by hydropower is necessary to manage electricity surpluses. The main challenge, however, surrounds seasonal energy storage including sector coupling.

Interdependencies between countries in the provision of energy

Many economies are concerned with the future security of electricity supply. This is rooted in the necessity to decarbonise energy systems and in the nuclear phase-out. Hence, some economies, instead of investing in own domestic energy capacity, rely on energy production by their neighbours. At the same time, countries claim to drastically cut back their fossil fuel energy production. Yet, they increasingly depend on fossil fuel energy imports from abroad. To analyse these interdependencies we employ data for 17 European countries from 1978 to 2017. We first examine how countries respond to changes in energy capacity investment by countries in the vicinity. Using spatial econometric models we find a negative relationship between countries’ investment in energy capacities. Second, we use fixed effects and instrumental variable estimators as well as an event study framework to analyse the link between domestic fossil energy production and imports. Our results reveal that a decline in domestic fossil energy production is associated with increasing fossil energy imports, suggesting that countries partially substitute one for the other.

Decarbonized Energies and the Wealth of Three European Nations: A Comparative Nexus Study Using Granger and Toda-Yamamoto Approaches

Considering the actual debate nuclear vs renewable that divides the green transition of the EU member states, this paper investigates the dynamic interactions between two sources of decarbonized energy (renewables and nuclear) and economic growth for three distinct economies: France, Spain, and Germany, all differing in their respective long-run nuclear planning. A complex methodological framework is employed to consider stationary (Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips-Perron test, Dickey-Fuller test, Elliott-Rothenberg-Stock test, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, Zivot and Andrews test with structural break), cointegration (Johansen and Juselius test of cointegration, Gregory and Hansen cointegration test with breaks based on regime-trend shifts), long-run convergence (Vector Error Correction Model), causality (Granger causality test, Toda-Yamamoto non-causality test, and variance analysis (Impulse Response Functions) Empirical results for the period 1983–2019 fail to support the existence of statistical causality between renewable energy use and economic growth in France and Spain, which is congruent with the “neutral hypothesis”. Besides, while a weak one-way link is revealed from renewable energy use to GDP in Germany only, economic growth is found to substantially trigger nuclear energy consumption in Spain but not vice versa, thus corroborating the “growth hypothesis”. Accordingly, country-specific insights are provided to deploy low-carbon sectoral facilities in Spain, enhance the channels of radioactive waste treatment in France, and secure the nuclear phase-out in Germany.

Comparative analysis of national energy strategies of 19 European countries in light of the green deal’s objectives

• National energy strategy of the individual European countries are not harmonized. • Climate goals set by European Green Deal cannot achieved with current strategies. • The current level of data collection on power production is not accurate enough. • Hourly resolution date on rooftop solar units’ production would be necessary. • Separate hourly data on pumped storage hydro & other storage technologies is a must. The European Green Deal is setting clear objectives for the transformation of the economy into a cleaner and at the same time competitive working model. The energy sector and especially the electricity sector faces serious challenges in order to comply with the objectives set by the policy. Aging power plants and grid infrastructure, phasing out fossil based energy production, the nuclear phase-out in some countries, increasing weather dependent intermittent power sources, the requirements of the security of electricity supply are also individually stressing issues, but all together are even more challenging. In line with the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) the energy strategy is the competence of the individual countries, based on the fact that the different countries have very different geological, socio-economical and ecological conditions, and their access to natural resources can be diverse. Therefore the national governments and national Parliaments are setting the national strategies which has to be in-line with the European framework. An important question arises evidently, namely, whether the national pieces of the big European Puzzle will result to a picture that has been set by the European Green Deal published on 14th July 2021? In the research presented in this paper, we tried to answer the abovementioned questions by investigating the energy strategy of 19 countries situated in continental Europe. We ran simulations for the year 2030 and 2040 using full year models with hourly resolution to investigate if the power plant portfolios of the individual countries could cover the electricity needs foreseen by their national energy strategies. Possible curtailment and unserved demand of the 19 countries in question were summed and final conclusions were drawn based on the simulation results.

From a hard nuclear state towards a soft nuclear repository state – participation, co-designing, learning and reversibility in the site selection process for a nuclear waste repository

Abstract. Since 2013 the site search for a repository for highly radioactive waste has been taking place in Germany within the framework of a new governance architecture and under new political guidelines. Based on experiences with nuclear politics in the past, Jungk (1977) coined the term hard nuclear state, characterized by decisions made in a top-down manner. The Decide-Announce-Defend (DAD) strategy, which branded the nuclear state at that time, led to conflicts, mistrust of authorities and blockages. In particular, massive resistance developed against the planned final repository site at Gorleben. Nowadays, after more than 60 years deploying nuclear energy, the (energy) political balance of power has fundamentally changed. Parts of the anti-nuclear movement have been integrated into the political party system and have contributed significantly to the nuclear phase-out. In the course of this, the unfinished task of final disposal has been readdressed: with the Repository Site Selection Act (StandAG, 2017), which was passed in 2013 and amended in 2017, an ongoing process of public participation is stated. The site selection process is required to be learning, self-questioning, science-based, reversible, and participatory. The StandAG § 5 not only provides a basis for a fundamental dialogue between the regulator, the operator, and the public, but also for „co-design“ by common citizens. The StandAG considers various elements from different participation-friendly theories of democracy as well as specific governance concepts, which we refer to collectively as the soft nuclear repository state (cf. Brunnengräber, 2021). Its characteristics need to be worked out, as the StandAG only provides some indications, but no criteria, for what good and sufficient participation in the site selection process means and what its conditions for success should be. Based on preliminary considerations on democratic theory and governance aspects (part 1), we present what good participation could mean in the current procedure and what the framework conditions for good participation could be (part 2). Additionally, we present main findings from participatory observations from the ongoing site search process and identify conditions and indications of a successful future participation process based on the ongoing process (part 3). In the résumé, we turn to the question of which of the democracy-theoretical elements of the soft repository state are already recognizable in the present procedure, but also whether the current procedure provides additional indications towards the soft nuclear repository state (part 4).