November February Research Articles

Winter Roosting by Eastern Red Bats in Ozark Mountain Forests of Missouri

The eastern red bat (Lasiurus borealis Müller, 1776) is a widespread species that roosts in evergreen or dead foliage suspended in trees during winter but retreats to leaf litter during colder periods. Roosting in leaf litter by eastern red bats makes them vulnerable to prescribed fires in winter. Using radio telemetry, we tracked 33 male eastern red bats to 101 winter (November–February) roosts and quantified roost locations, habitat surrounding roosts, and landscape attributes of roost locations. When roosting in trees, bats preferred oaks but generally avoided other tree species; they used pines in proportion to their availability. During colder periods, bats retreated to roosts in leaf litter where 21% suffered mortality either from predation/scavenging or unknown causes while roosting on the ground. Models of roost selection indicated that southerly aspect was the most important factor determining roost selection, and both tree- and leaf-litter roosts were predominately (≥94%) on upper south-facing slopes. Prescribed burning in late morning/early afternoon on clear days when temperatures under leaf litter are warmest in winter could reduce potential mortality by allowing faster arousal time for hibernating bats.

Intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability of surface solar radiation over South‐West Indian Ocean: Regional climate modelling

AbstractThe abundant surface solar radiation (SSR) over South‐West Indian Ocean (SWIO) presents significant temporal variability. To characterize this temporal variability is important for the application of solar energy, such as photovoltaic industry. This article studied the intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability of SSR by regional climate modelling over SWIO region. The regional climate model, RegCM4's skill is first evaluated through analysing the seasonal mean SSR with the precipitation, near surface temperature and total cloud cover in austral summer and winter. The basic validation of those simulated parameters with the reference data showed model's performance on SSR. The austral summer (November–February) 1999–2008 was chosen to search the Madden–Julian Oscillation patterns and tropical temperate troughs which are the major expression of intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability. The circulation, moisture fluxes, and radiation fluxes have been checked at the beginning for RegCM4's input dataset (ERA‐Interim) to find the signals. Then, the output simulation results were taking into account to see if the model can reproduce the intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability or not. SSR from SARAH‐E (CM SAF@5 km) as the reference dataset in the end has been used to validate the simulated patterns, which showed that the eastward SSR anomalies propagation and negative SSR anomalies bands can be observed in RegCM4 and the according satellite dataset. These results identified and explained SSR's intraseasonal and synoptic climate variability over SWIO region, which provide a way through RegCM to perform SSR's evaluation and prediction.

Intensified Impact of Winter Arctic Oscillation on Simultaneous Precipitation Over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia Since the Early 2000s

This study reveals an intensified impact of winter (November–February mean) Arctic Oscillation (AO) on simultaneous precipitation over the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) since the early 2000s. The unstable relationship may be related to the changes in the tropospheric AO mode and the subtropical jet. Further analyses suggest that their changes may be attributable to the interdecadal changes in the stratospheric polar vortex. During 2002–2017, the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex is accompanied by intensified upward-propagating tropospheric planetary-scale waves anomalies. Subsequently, the stratospheric geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes propagate downward strongly, causing the changes in the tropospheric AO mode, that is, the positive height anomalies over the North Atlantic high-latitudes are stronger and extend southward, corresponding to the stronger and eastward extension of negative height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid-latitudes. Thus, the Rossby wave source anomalies over Baffin Bay and the Black Sea are strong, and correspondingly so too are their subsequently excited the Rossby waves anomalies. Meanwhile, the planetary-scale waves anomalies propagate weakly along the low-latitude waveguide, causing the intensified and southward shift of the subtropical jet. Therefore, the strong Rossby waves anomalies propagate eastward to the MHA. By contrast, during 1979–1999, the strong stratospheric polar vortex anomaly is accompanied by weak upward-propagating planetary-scale waves anomalies, resulting in weaker height anomalies over the North Atlantic mid–high latitudes. Consequently, the anomalous Rossby waves are weak. In addition, the subtropical jet weakens and shifts northward, which causes the Rossby waves anomalies to dominate over the North Atlantic, and thereby the impact of winter AO on simultaneous precipitation over the MHA is weak.

Changes in sward structure, plant morphology and growth of perennial ryegrass–white clover swards over winter

White clover (Trifolium repens L.) is at a disadvantage to perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L.; PRG) due to its limited cold tolerance and low growth rates at colder temperatures, which can affect subsequent spring herbage dry matter (DM) availability. The effect of PRG ploidy on white clover morphology and growth over winter, and its subsequent recovery in spring and the following growing season, is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to compare the effect of white clover inclusion and PRG ploidy on sward structure, plant morphology and growth of PRG–white clover swards over winter. Four swards (diploid PRG only, tetraploid PRG only, diploid PRG–white clover and tetraploid PRG–white clover) were evaluated over a full winter period (November–February) at a farmlet scale. The PRG ploidy had no effect on herbage DM production, white clover content or tissue turnover (P > 0.05) over winter. However, white clover inclusion caused a significant decrease in herbage DM production (P < 0.001; −254 kg DM/ha) and tiller density (P < 0.001; −1,953 tillers/m2) over winter. Stolon mass was not affected by PRG ploidy (P > 0.05); however, stolon length and number of leaves per stolon were affected by PRG ploidy (P < 0.05). Including white clover in PRG swards can alter winter sward dynamics, potentially causing difficulties in subsequent spring management and performance due to the reduced over-winter growth rate when compared with PRG.

Measurement report: Regional characteristics of seasonal and long-term variations in greenhouse gases at Nainital, India, and Comilla, Bangladesh

Abstract. Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the Indian subcontinent have increased during the last 20 years along with rapid economic growth; however, there remains a paucity of GHG measurements for policy-relevant research. In northern India and Bangladesh, agricultural activities are considered to play an important role in GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. We performed weekly air sampling at Nainital (NTL) in northern India and Comilla (CLA) in Bangladesh from 2006 and 2012, respectively. Air samples were analyzed for dry-air gas mole fractions of CO2, CH4, CO, H2, N2O, and SF6 and carbon and oxygen isotopic ratios of CO2 (δ13C-CO2 and δ18O-CO2). Regional characteristics of these components over the Indo-Gangetic Plain are discussed compared to data from other Indian sites and Mauna Loa, Hawaii (MLO), which is representative of marine background air. We found that the CO2 mole fraction at CLA had two seasonal minima in February–March and September, corresponding to crop cultivation activities that depend on regional climatic conditions. Although NTL had only one clear minimum in September, the carbon isotopic signature suggested that photosynthetic CO2 absorption by crops cultivated in each season contributes differently to lower CO2 mole fractions at both sites. The CH4 mole fraction of NTL and CLA in August–October showed high values (i.e., sometimes over 4000 ppb at CLA), mainly due to the influence of CH4 emissions from the paddy fields. High CH4 mole fractions sustained over months at CLA were a characteristic feature on the Indo-Gangetic Plain, which were affected by both the local emission and air mass transport. The CO mole fractions at NTL were also high and showed peaks in May and October, while CLA had much higher peaks in October–March due to the influence of human activities such as emissions from biomass burning and brick production. The N2O mole fractions at NTL and CLA increased in June–August and November–February, which coincided with the application of nitrogen fertilizer and the burning of biomass such as the harvest residues and dung for domestic cooking. Based on H2 seasonal variation at both sites, it appeared that the emissions in this region were related to biomass burning in addition to production from the reaction of OH and CH4. The SF6 mole fraction was similar to that at MLO, suggesting that there were few anthropogenic SF6 emission sources in the district. The variability of the CO2 growth rate at NTL was different from the variability in the CO2 growth rate at MLO, which is more closely linked to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In addition, the growth rates of the CH4 and SF6 mole fractions at NTL showed an anticorrelation with those at MLO, indicating that the frequency of southerly air masses strongly influenced these mole fractions. These findings showed that rather large regional climatic conditions considerably controlled interannual variations in GHGs, δ13C-CO2, and δ18O-CO2 through changes in precipitation and air mass.

Disparities in emergency department access, resource allocation, and outcomes between migrants and the local population.

To characterize a group of migrant emergency department (ED) patients regarding demographics, access to the ED, mode of referral, use of resources, and short-term outcomes, and to compare them to a group of local ED patients. Prospective cohort study with consecutive enrollment of adult patients presenting to the ED of a Swiss tertiary care hospital from October 21st to November 11th, 2013 and February 1st to February 23rd, 2015. In accordance with the International Organization for Migration, we defined migrants as persons who have changed their country of usual residence, irrespective of their legal status. The primary outcome was defined as the number of resources allocated to migrants, as compared to local patients, using uni- and multivariable quasi-Poisson regressions. Acute morbidity, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and 30-day mortality were assessed as secondary outcomes. Migrant patients were younger, more often male and self-presenters, and of lower acuity. After adjustment for age, gender and acuity, we observed a non-significant difference of 3.6% in the mean number of resources allocated to migrant patients as compared to local patients (adjusted RR 0.964, CI 0.923-1.006). No difference in 30-day mortality (adjusted OR 0.777, CI 0.346-1.559) was observed between the two patient groups, but migrant patients had lower odds of acute morbidity (adjusted OR 0.652, CI 0.560-0.759), hospitalization (adjusted OR 0.666, CI 0.555-0.799), and ICU admission (adjusted OR 0.649, CI 0.456-0.910). ED access approximation, resource allocation, and mortality were comparable between migrant patients and local patients. Lower admission rates to wards and the ICU may raise concerns but can be explained by lower acute morbidity in migrant patients.

An atlas of the Norway spruce needle seasonal transcriptome.

Boreal conifers possess a tremendous ability to survive and remain evergreen during harsh winter conditions and resume growth during summer. This is enabled by coordinated regulation of major cellular functions at the level of gene expression, metabolism, and physiology. Here we present a comprehensive characterization of the annual changes in the global transcriptome of Norway spruce (Picea abies) needles as a resource to understand needle development and acclimation processes throughout the year. In young, growing needles (May 15 until June 30), cell walls, organelles, etc., were formed, and this developmental program heavily influenced the transcriptome, explained by over-represented Gene Ontology (GO) categories. Later changes in gene expression were smaller but four phases were recognized: summer (July-August), autumn (September-October), winter (November-February), and spring (March-April), where over-represented GO categories demonstrated how the needles acclimated to the various seasons. Changes in the seasonal global transcriptome profile were accompanied by differential expression of members of the major transcription factor families. We present a tentative model of how cellular activities are regulated over the year in needles of Norway spruce, which demonstrates the value of mining this dataset, accessible in ConGenIE together with advanced visualization tools.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation signal in a new East Antarctic ice core, Mount Brown South

Abstract. Paleoclimate archives, such as high-resolution ice core records, provide a means to investigate past climate variability. Until recently, the Law Dome (Dome Summit South site) ice core record remained one of few millennial-length high-resolution coastal records in East Antarctica. A new ice core drilled in 2017/2018 at Mount Brown South, approximately 1000 km west of Law Dome, provides an additional high-resolution record that will likely span the last millennium in the Indian Ocean sector of East Antarctica. Here, we compare snow accumulation rates and sea salt concentrations in the upper portion (∼ 20 m) of three Mount Brown South ice cores and an updated Law Dome record over the period 1975–2016. Annual sea salt concentrations from the Mount Brown South site record preserve a stronger signal for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO; austral winter and spring, r = 0.533, p < 0.001, Multivariate El Niño Index) compared to a previously defined Law Dome record of summer sea salt concentrations (November–February, r = 0.398, p = 0.010, Southern Oscillation Index). The Mount Brown South site record and Law Dome record preserve inverse signals for the ENSO, possibly due to longitudinal variability in meridional transport in the southern Indian Ocean, although further analysis is needed to confirm this. We suggest that ENSO-related sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific drive atmospheric teleconnections in the southern mid-latitudes. These anomalies are associated with a weakening (strengthening) of regional westerly winds to the north of Mount Brown South that correspond to years of low (high) sea salt deposition at Mount Brown South during La Niña (El Niño) events. The extended Mount Brown South annual sea salt record (when complete) may offer a new proxy record for reconstructions of the ENSO over the recent millennium, along with improved understanding of regional atmospheric variability in the southern Indian Ocean, in addition to that derived from Law Dome.

Microbial populations regulate greenhouse gas emissions in Sundarban mangrove ecosystem, India

Mangrove ecosystems are significant sources of greenhouse gases (GHG) that is attributed to microbial activity. However, it is still unknown how the sediment microbial populations affect GHG emissions in mangrove ecosystem. Since little is known about microbial populations of mangroves, the present study was aimed to understand the structure and function of microbial communities in the Indian part of the Sundarban mangrove ecosystem in relation to environmental variables and variation of GHG emissions during three seasons: pre-monsoon (March–June), monsoon (July–October) and post-monsoon (November–February).Seasonal variations of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) gas samples were taken from the mangrove bed. Culture methods were used to detect twelve different types of microbes such as heterotrophic (Htp), N2 fixing (Nfix), nitrifying (Ntfn), sulfur oxidizing (Soxd), Gram-negative (GMn), Gram-positive (GMp), spore forming (Sfor), denitrifying (DNtfn), anaerobic (Anrb), phosphate solubilizing (Psol), cellulose degrading (Cdeg) bacteria and actinomycetes (Actm). In the monsoon, populations of the Htp, Anrb, Psol, and Cdeg bacteria were more prevalent, whereas populations of the GMn, GMp, Ntfn, DNtfn bacteria, and Actm bacteria were more prevalent in the post-monsoon. Monsoonal CO2 and CH4 fluxes were larger than pre-monsoon and post-monsoon, resulting in increased microbial soil respiration and breakdown of soil organic carbon. Because of higher denitrification and soil temperature, N2O flux was higher in the pre-monsoon period, followed by monsoon and post-monsoon periods. A univariate statistical correlation was employed to assess the relationships between environmental variables and different microbial populations. An ANN (artificial neural network) model was proposed to evaluate the relevance of microbial population contribution to GHG emissions, and it indicated that the Htp, Anrb, and Dntfn microbial populations were most relevant for CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions. The suggested model would be used to assess the drivers behind GHG emission in the mangroves located at different parts of the world.

Brook trout movement, survival and spawning redd sites in a central Wisconsin headwater stream vulnerable to low streamflow

AbstractBrook trout Salvelinus fontinalis populations inhabiting groundwater‐fed, headwater streams are sensitive to biotic and abiotic changes caused by anthropogenic actions in their native range but can be very resilient in their introduced range. Brook trout have maintained a self‐sustaining population in the Little Plover River, Wisconsin, despite fish kills during extreme low flows between 2005 and 2009 caused by groundwater pumping and limited precipitation. Increased understanding of brook trout sensitivity and resilience in headwater streams can aid restoration, conservation and eradication efforts. Therefore, we evaluated their movements, survival and spawning behaviours in the Little Plover River using a PIT antenna array (July 2016–July 2019) and spawning redd surveys (2017–2018) paired with estimated groundwater inputs. Tagged individuals often exhibited localised, nocturnal movements for most of the year. However, movements increased and shifted to a diurnal pattern with decreased photoperiod and water temperature beginning during spawning and continuing throughout winter (November–February). Spawning movements primarily (90%) occurred in the upstream direction, with consistent patterns of short (rkm <0.9, 64.8.9–70.7%), moderate (rkm =0.9 – 3.5, 20.0–30.2%) and long (rkm ≥4.5, 4.5–6.2%) distance movements across the three spawning periods. Monthly survival estimates ranged from 72.1 to 98.9% throughout the study (mean =91.5%) and were consistently lowest during winter and spring. Redd surveys indicated spawning peaked in mid‐November and redds were more concentrated in upstream reaches and in areas with higher estimated groundwater inflows in 2017 but not in 2018 when surface flows were higher. Our results increase understanding of brook trout daily and seasonal movements, monthly and seasonal survival, and spawning behaviours including relative to groundwater and surface flows in headwater streams, further informing management, conservation, and eradication efforts.

Investigating Wintertime Cloud Microphysical Properties and Their Relationship to Air Mass Advection at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard Using the Synergy of a Cloud Radar–Ceilometer–Microwave Radiometer

This study investigates the relationship of cloud properties and radiative effects with air mass origin during the winter (November–February, 2016–2020) at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, through a combination of cloud radar, ceilometer, and microwave radiometer measurements. The liquid cloud fraction (CF) was less than 2%, whereas the ice CF predominantly exceeded 10% below 6 km. The liquid water content (LWC) of mixed-phase clouds (LWCmix), which predominantly exist in the boundary layer (CFmix: 10–30%), was approximately four times higher than that of liquid clouds (LWCliq). Warm air mass advection (warmadv) cases were closely linked with strong southerly/southwesterly winds, whereas northerly winds brought cold and dry air masses (coldadv) to the study area. Elevated values of LWC and ice water content (IWC) during warmadv cases can be explained by the presence of mixed-phase clouds in the boundary layer and ice clouds in the middle troposphere. Consistently, the re of ice particles in warmadv cases was approximately 5–10 μm larger than that in coldadv cases at all altitudes. A high CF and cloud water content in warmadv cases contributed to a 33% (69 W m−2) increase in downward longwave (LW) fluxes compared to cloud-free conditions.

Reproductive Phenology of Five Species of Terrestrial Frogs (Genus Eleutherodactylus) from Cuba

We studied the reproductive phenology of five endemic Eleutherodactylus species that coexist in a mountain rainforest in Cuba and estimated their sex ratios at immature and mature stages. We tested the hypothesis that in Neotropical humid sites, reproductive activity in sympatric species will vary in the time of occurrence so that there is no complete temporal overlap. We also investigated whether the length of the breeding season was associated to relative testes size as a proxy for male–male competition. We inferred reproductive phenology from seasonal variation in the number of sexually active individuals, their gonad developmental stage, and male vocal activity from January 2003 to March 2004. Our data do not support the hypothesis of temporal segregation in reproduction for this assemblage because we found a prolonged reproductive pattern in the five species, but there was decreased breeding intensity in the cooler months (November–February). This deduction is supported by a drop in the weight of the ovaries and the number of vitellogenic follicles, absence of mature females or reduction of their abundance, and disappearance of male vocal activity in the winter. We found differences in relative testes size among species, which were not related to differences in the length of the breeding season, but rather to interspecific differences in sex ratio.

Monitoring the effect of environmental conditions on safety of fresh produce sold in Qatar’s wholesale market

ABSTRACT Fresh produce imported by Qatar are mostly sold at the wholesale produce market (WPM) located in open-air and near major animal markets and slaughterhouses. This study was the first in Qatar to monitor the effect of environmental conditions on the microbial quality and safety of fresh produce sold at the WPM over 1 year. The monitoring involved the collection of 540 produce samples along with samples of air, soil, and surface swabs. Samples were analyzed for total aerobic bacteria (TAB); generic Listeria spp., Staphylococcus spp., Salmonella spp.; total coliforms and total fungi. Bacterial and fungal isolates were identified using 16S rRNA/ITS rRNA markers. Environmental/sanitary factors significantly impacted the prevalence of microorganisms in all samples tested. Produce quality was rated ‘poor’ during the months of November–February or May–August, with TAB and coliform counts exceeding 6 and 4 log10 CFU/g, respectively. Bacillus subtilus, Enterobacter cloacae, E. faecium, P. expansium, P. aurantiocandidum, and A. niger were the most abundant species with prevalence rate of 11–30%. The high microbial load of environmental samples indicates that the location of the WPM near livestock markets is likely impacting the microbial quality of fresh produce. Therefore, effective control measures need to be implemented at WPM to improve produce safety yearlong.

Evaluation of factors influencing tick bites and tick-borne infections: a longitudinal study

BackgroundVarious tick-borne infections like borreliosis and rickettsiosis pose a health risk to humans in many parts of the world. We investigated seroprevalence of and seroconversion to Borrelia burgdorferi and Rickettsia spp. and relation to tick-bites, weather and clinical manifestations in Denmark.MethodsBlood donors were enrolled at the Hospital of Southern Jutland in June–July with follow-up November–February of 2018 and 2019. Blood samples were collected, and a questionnaire regarding tick bites, potential exposures and symptoms was completed at each visit. Samples were tested for presence of IgM and IgG antibodies directed against B. burgdorferi and Rickettsia spp. using R. helvetica and R. felis as antigens. Data were examined for correlation between tick bites, serological results, potential exposures and symptoms.ResultsTwo-hundred and fourteen (93 follow-ups) and 130 (38 follow-ups) blood donors were included in 2018 and 2019, respectively. The total borrelia seroconversion rate was 6.3% (CI 2.1–10.5), while the prevalence of IgM and IgG antibodies was 7.8% (CI 4.9–10.6) and 6.7% (CI 4–9.3), respectively. Seroconversion to Rickettsia spp. was detected in one participant. Tick bites and seroconversion were not significantly associated with the reported unspecific symptoms, but unspecific symptoms were common in the study population. There was no significant difference in number of tick bites or seroconversion/prevalence between seasons with highly alternating weather.ConclusionsResults suggest that weather conditions in an individual year have a limited impact. Anti-Borrelia-antibodies do not seem to persist in serum for several years. Rickettsiosis is of limited concern in Denmark.Graphical

Development of novel hybrid machine learning models for monthly thunderstorm frequency prediction over Bangladesh

Thunderstorm frequency (TSF) prediction with higher accuracy is of great significance under climate extremes for reducing potential damages. However, TSF prediction has received little attention because a thunderstorm event is a combination of intricate and unique weather scenarios with high instability, making it difficult to predict. To close this gap, we proposed two novel hybrid machine learning models through hybridization of data pre-processing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) with two state-of-arts models, namely artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine for TSF prediction at three categories over Bangladesh. We have demarcated the yearly TSF datasets into three categories for the period 1981–2016 recorded at 28 sites; high (March–June), moderate (July–October), and low (November–February) TSF months. The performance of the proposed EEMD-ANN and EEMD-SVM hybrid models was compared with classical ANN, SVM, and autoregressive integrated moving average. EEMD-ANN and EEMD-SVM hybrid models showed 8.02–22.48% higher performance precision in terms of root mean square error compared to other models at high-, moderate-, and low-frequency categories. Eleven out of 21 input parameters were selected based on the random forest variable importance analysis. The sensitivity analysis results showed that each input parameter was positively contributed to building the best model of each category, and thunderstorm days are the most contributing parameters influencing TSF prediction. The proposed hybrid models outperformed the conventional models where EEMD-ANN is the most skillful for high TSF prediction, and EEMD-SVM is for moderate and low TSF prediction. The findings indicate the potential of hybridization of EEMD with the conventional models for improving prediction precision. The hybrid models developed in this work can be adopted for TSF prediction in Bangladesh as well as different parts of the world.

Potential predictability of the MJO during easterly and westerly phases of the QBO

The potential predictability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in boreal winter (November–February) is investigated using observational data for the period of 1979–2016. For various MJO indices, nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents are computed to quantify the MJO predictability under the easterly and westerly phases of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (easterly: EQBO and westerly: WQBO). All MJO indices exhibit higher predictability during EQBO winters than during WQBO winters. Excluding strong ENSO years from EQBO and WQBO winters has a limited impact on MJO predictability. The highest potential predictability of 43 days during EQBO winters and 37 days during WQBO winters is found for the MJO index obtained from bandpass-filtered (30–80 days) outgoing longwave radiation and wind data. In contrast, the potential predictability of the MJO from the real-time multivariate MJO index is 21 days during EQBO winters and 13 days during WQBO winters. The longer persistence and less disorganization of the MJO during the EQBO winters lead to the higher predictability for EQBO winters, as compared with that for WQBO winters.

Agroclimatic requirements and phenological responses to climate change of local apple cultivars in northwestern Spain

In a global warming context, analyses of historic temperature records are essential to understand the potential impacts of climate change on spring phenology. To estimate flowering trends over recent decades, we analyzed long-term temperature and phenology records of eleven local apple cultivars in Asturias (northwestern Spain) in a temperate oceanic climate. Our results show that, over a period of 30 years, bloom dates of the local cultivars have experienced relatively minor changes, considering that temperatures increased strongly since 1978, by 0.30 °C per decade. An explanation for this weak phenological response to warming may be that these temperature changes only had a small effect on overall chill accumulation, but possibly delayed the onset date of endodormancy, which may have counteracted phenology-advancing effects of warming in spring. At present, chill accumulation in this area is high, at an average of 96 Chill Portions from November to March, which indicates that chill is not currently a limiting factor for the quality of flowering and fruiting in the study area. We used Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression to delineate an effective chilling period between November 12th and February 9th and effective heat accumulation between March 15th and May 4th. While these periods appear plausible, we noticed that this approach was unable to identify well-known differences in chilling requirements among many of the cultivars, with similar chill needs determined for many of them. This observation may be explained by inaccurate expectations about cultivars’ climatic needs, by inaccuracy of the chill (and possibly heat) model or, most concerning, by inability of the PLS approach to correctly identify the chilling periods of apple cultivars in this region. Bloom dates were similarly responsive to mean temperature during the chill and the heat accumulation phases, indicating that both processes need to be considered when predicting future phenology.

Length–weight relationships of six indigenous fish species from the River Cauvery and its estuary, India

The present study estimated length–weight relationships (LWRs) for six indigenous fish species (Barilius gatensis, Salmostoma acinaces, S. boopis, Puntius amphibius, Hemibagrus punctatus and Ambassis miops) based on specimens collected from River Cauvery (including estuary) during July 2017–January 2020. The sampling surveys were carried out in three distinct sampling seasons, viz., the pre-monsoon (March–May), the monsoon (July–October) and the post-monsoon (November–February). Majority of the fish specimens dealt in the study were collected from multi-meshed monofilament gill nets (mesh sizes 18, 30, 45, 60, 90, 110, 120 and 150 mm) operated by local fishers. For those sites situated in the protected areas, sampling was carried out by cast nets with prior permission from the local administration and the collected fishes were released back into river after length–weight measurements. The length measurements were noted as total length (TL) measured to the nearest 0.1 cm by using a digital Vernier caliper. A digital balance was used for weight measurements with an accuracy of 0.01 g. The study recorded a new maximum length of 48 cm for H. punctatus. The LWR data generated from the present study are significant for proper assessment of the stock status and their management, if collected together with other essential biological and physical parameters.

Spatiotemporal Rainfall Distribution of Soan River Basin, Pothwar Region, Pakistan

This study evaluates the spatiotemporal rainfall variability over the semimountainous Soan River Basin (SRB) of sub-Himalayan Pothwar region, Pakistan. The temporal rainfall trend analysis of sixteen rain gauges was performed on annual basis with long-term (1981–2016) data. The results depicted that there is substantial year-to-year and season-to-season variability in rainfall patterns, and rainfall patterns are generally erratic in nature. The results highlight that most of the highland rainfall stations showed decreasing trends on annual basis. The central and lowland stations of the study area recorded an increasing trend of rainfall except for Talagang station. The average annual rainfall of the study area ranges between 492 mm and 1710 mm in lowland and high-altitude areas, respectively. Of the whole year’s rainfall, about 70 to 75% fall during the monsoon season. The rainfall spatial distribution maps obtained using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method, through the GIS software, revealed the major rainfall range within the study area. There is a lack of water during postmonsoon months (November–February) and great differences in rainfall amounts between the mountainous areas and the lowlands. There is a need for the rational management of mountainous areas using mini and check dams to increase water production and stream regulation for lowland areas water availability. The spatiotemporal rainfall variability is crucial for better water resource management schemes in the study area of Pothwar region, Pakistan.

Reciprocal Common Garden Altitudinal Transplants Reveal Potential Negative Impacts of Climate Change on Abies religiosa Populations in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve Overwintering Sites

Research Highlights: Reciprocal altitudinal transplants of Abies religiosa seedlings within the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) allow prediction of the impacts of climatic change, because they grow in sites with a climate that differs from that of their origin. Background and Objectives: Climatic change is generating a mismatch between the sites currently occupied by forest populations and the climate to which they have adapted. This study determined the effect on the survival and growth of A. religiosa seedlings of transfer to sites that were warmer or colder than that of the origin of their seeds. Materials and Methods: Eleven provenances of A. religiosa, collected along an altitudinal gradient (3000 to 3550 m a.s.l.), were assayed in common gardens in three sites of contrasting altitude: 3400, 3000 and 2600 m a.s.l. The results were evaluated by fitting a response curve with a mixed model. Results: The climate transfer distance for the seasonal balance between the temperature conducive to growth (degree days above 5 °C) and the available precipitation (a ratio expressed as dryness index) dominated the shape of the response function curve. The rainy season (June–October) dryness index transfer distance was critical for survival, while that of the cold and dry season (November–February) was critical for aerial biomass, and the annual index was critical for the increase in basal diameter. The effect of climatic transfer distance is much more negative (triggering about 45% mortality) when transfer is toward warmer and dryer sites (at 400 m lower in altitude, +1.9 °C warmer and 16% less precipitation), than when shifting toward colder and wetter sites (400 m higher in altitude, resulting in 95% survival). Conclusions: The projected higher temperatures and lower precipitation due to climatic change will undoubtedly cause severe mortality in young A. religiosa seedlings. A 400 m shift upwards in altitude to compensate for climatic change (assisted migration) appears to be a feasible management action.