Northwest Territories Research Articles

Toward Equity in Access to Midwifery: A Scan of Five Canadian Provinces

This research project was created to support equitable access to midwifery care for the diverse populations of Saskatchewan women. Given the ongoing implementation and expansion of midwifery across diverse mixes of rural, urban, and aboriginal communities in the health regions of the province, we asked: How can midwifery care be implemented in an equitable and accessible way in Saskatchewan? The first phase of this research explored experiences with midwifery implementation around issues of accessibility through an environmental scan of five Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Northwest Territories, and Nova Scotia). By analyzing policy and regulatory documents together with primary data generated through key informant interviews, we discovered an interesting compendium of provincial activities and policies in support of equity to access midwifery. We also identified several important areas in need of strengthening. In this article, we present a brief description of the best practices identified by each province, followed by an exploratory analysis of key thematic issues that are significant in creating equitable access to the full scope of midwifery care. These included funding models, interprofessional relationships, choice of birthplace and second attendants, risk designation, geographic dispersal, community integration, and midwifery human resources.

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

A Focused Review on Wildfire Evacuation and Infrastructure Resilience in Canada: Trends and Insights (2013–2023)

Progress in the taxonomy of Late Cretaceous high-latitude radiolarians: insights from the Horton River area, Northwest Territories, Canada

Abstract. Radiolarians have proven to be exceptional tools in biostratigraphic and paleoenvironmental studies despite their relatively low preservation potential in the sedimentary record. Reports of Upper Cretaceous radiolarians in high northern latitudes are scant, and their taxonomy is not often discussed in the few reports available in the literature. In this study, we describe one new genus and three new species of polycystine radiolarians from Upper Cretaceous strata of the northern mainland coast of Arctic Canada. The specimens were recovered from the Santonian–middle Campanian Smoking Hills Formation and the middle Campanian–Maastrichtian Mason River Formation and are assigned to the genus Canadasphaera n. gen. (Order Spumellaria) and the species Canadasphaera inuita n. sp., Kuppelella rusti n. sp., and Lithocampe? rara n. sp. The taxonomic notes provided in this study improve our understanding of Late Cretaceous radiolarians from high northern latitudes and serve as a foundation for future Cretaceous radiolarian research in Arctic regions. Canadasphaera: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:C6B7B702-4B74-472D-8893-0A41B93A5066, date of registration: 19 April 2024 Canadasphaera inuita: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:C30E555B-EE94-4680-87D1-5CE83E128461, date of registration: 19 April 2024 Kuppelella rusti: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:68ECB628-2E74-4748-ACA4-DD1A33B05837, date of registration: 19 April 2024 Lithocampe? rara: urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:25E569B2-93A8-425F-BB7C-D29A0437763F, date of registration: 19 April 2024

Deep-water first occurrences of Ediacara biota prior to the Shuram carbon isotope excursion in the Wernecke Mountains, Yukon, Canada.

Ediacara-type macrofossils appear as early as ~575 Ma in deep-water facies of the Drook Formation of the Avalon Peninsula, Newfoundland, and the Nadaleen Formation of Yukon and Northwest Territories, Canada. Our ability to assess whether a deep-water origination of the Ediacara biota is a genuine reflection of evolutionary succession, an artifact of an incomplete stratigraphic record, or a bathymetrically controlled biotope is limited by a lack of geochronological constraints and detailed shelf-to-slope transects of Ediacaran continental margins. The Ediacaran Rackla Group of the Wernecke Mountains, NW Canada, represents an ideal shelf-to-slope depositional system to understand the spatiotemporal and environmental context of Ediacara-type organisms' stratigraphic occurrence. New sedimentological and paleontological data presented herein from the Wernecke Mountains establish a stratigraphic framework relating shelfal strata in the Goz/Corn Creek area to lower slope deposits in the Nadaleen River area. We report new discoveries of numerous Aspidella hold-fast discs, indicative of frondose Ediacara organisms, from deep-water slope deposits of the Nadaleen Formation stratigraphically below the Shuram carbon isotope excursion (CIE) in the Nadaleen River area. Such fossils are notably absent in coeval shallow-water strata in the Goz/Corn Creek region despite appropriate facies for potential preservation. The presence of pre-Shuram CIE Ediacara-type fossils occurring only in deep-water facies within a basin that has equivalent well-preserved shallow-water facies provides the first stratigraphic paleobiological support for a deep-water origination of the Ediacara biota. In contrast, new occurrences of Ediacara-type fossils (including juvenile fronds, Beltanelliformis, Aspidella, annulated tubes, and multiple ichnotaxa) are found above the Shuram CIE in both deep- and shallow-water deposits of the Blueflower Formation. Given existing age constraints on the Shuram CIE, it appears that Ediacaran organisms may have originated in the deeper ocean and lived there for up to ~15 million years before migrating into shelfal environments in the terminal Ediacaran. This indicates unique ecophysiological constraints likely shaped the initial habitat preference and later environmental expansion of the Ediacara biota.

Facies analysis for the Neoarchean Itchen and Sherpa formations of the Winter Lake greenstone belt, Slave craton, Northwest Territories, Canada

Facies analysis for the Neoarchean Itchen and Sherpa formations of the Winter Lake greenstone belt, Slave craton, Northwest Territories, Canada

Synodality and Its Implications for Catholic Schools: An Exploratory Study of System Leaders in Western Canadian Catholic Schools

Pope Francis’s dream for a synodal Church has implications for Catholic schools globally, but what exactly are these consequences? This paper explores Francis’s vision in the context of Canadian Catholic schools in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and the Northwest Territories (NWT), where these schools are fully-funded by the government and enroll nearly a quarter million students. Ten exploratory interviews with chief superintendents from these schools—which formed the basis of a larger study—were analyzed to understand potential connections to Francis’s vision and his four commitments to synodality: focusing on relationships, a culture of encounter, the essentials of the Christian faith, and local decision-making. The pope differentiates synodality from democratic forms of leadership and demands a communal form of listening and discerning God’s Spirit. While the superintendents’ style of leadership appeared to mirror synodality in many ways, predominant issues remain to be explored: an emphasis on relationships upends the status quo and gives new directions for the schools; encountering others will inevitably demand prophetic leadership by the system leaders; leading with the essentials of faith will not please everyone in Catholic schooling; and shared authority among the superintendents, bishops, and trustees requires further dialogue.

The Devonian clastic wedge and underlying strata of southwestern Canadian Arctic Archipelago: stratigraphic revisions

The Devonian clastic wedge (DCW) and underlying carbonate platforms and basinal mudrocks of the study area are re-examined using legacy seismic data and X-ray fluorescence surveys of borehole chip samples. The Ordovician–Devonian basinal succession of Melville Island is consolidated under the name Ibbett Bay Group within the Northwest Territories, whereas equivalent strata in Nunavut are grouped into the Cape Phillips Formation. The Kitson Formation black shale is correlative with the upper Ibbett Bay Group. Six horizons with high TOC and high gamma response are traced in the Ordovician–Devonian, with the fourth (4a) approximating the Silurian/Devonian boundary; the upper two (4b, 5) are Emsian and Eifelian. In the direction of progradation, the base of Kitson Formation rises stratigraphically from gamma horizon 4a to 5. The upper Kitson represents basinal toes of westward prograding DCW clinoforms. The Blackley and Cape de Bray formations of Embry and Klovan (Embry, A.F., and Klovan, J.E. 1976. The middle-upper devonian clastic wedge of the franklinian geosyncline. Bulletin of Canadian Petroleum Geology, 24: 485–639. https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/cspg/bcpg/article/24/4/485/57135) are not traceable enough to warrant their formation rank. We revert to the original usage of Tozer and Thorsteinsson (Tozer, E.T., and Thorsteinsson, R. 1964. Western Queen Elizabeth Islands, Arctic Archipelago. Geological Survey of Canada, Memoir 332: 242 p. doi:10.4095/100556) where these units are members within the Weatherall Formation. The distinctive seismic character of the Cape de Bray in western and central Melville Island warrants its recognition as a formal member; elsewhere, it is informal as it cannot be consistently traced. The Blackey is treated as a formal member in an outcrop area of ∼2000 km 2 where it was defined; it is not recognized in the subsurface. Onset of the DCW is tentatively linked to flexural subsidence and crustal thickening caused by the Romanzof Orogeny in the hinterland.

Low-severity fires in the boreal region: reproductive implications for black spruce stands in between stand-replacing fire events.

Stand-replacing crown fires are the most prevalent type of fire regime in boreal forests in North America. However, a substantial proportion of low-severity fires are found within fire perimeters. Here we aimed to investigate the effects of low-severity fires on the reproductive potential and seedling recruitment in boreal forests stands in between stand-replacing fire events. We recorded site and tree characteristics from 149 trees within twelve sites dominated by mature black spruce [Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.] trees in the Northwest Territories, Canada. The presence of fire-scarred trees supported classification of sites as unburned or affected by low-severity fires in recent history. We used non-parametric tests to evaluate differences in site conditions between unburned and low-severity sites, and mixed effect models to evaluate differences in tree age, size, and reproductive traits among unburned trees and trees from low-severity sites. Results showed significantly higher density of dead black spruce trees in low-severity sites, and marginally significant higher presence of permafrost. Trees from low-severity fire sites were significantly older, exhibited significantly lower tree growth, and showed a tendency towards a higher probability of cone presence and percentage of open cones compared to trees from unburned sites. Surviving fire-scarred trees affected by more recent low-severity fires showed a tendency towards higher probability of cone presence and cone production. Density of black spruce seedlings significantly increased with recent low-severity fires. Trees in low-severity sites appeared to have escaped mortality from up to three fires, as indicated by fire scar records and their older ages. Shallow permafrost at low-severity sites may cause lower flammability, allowing areas to act as fire refugia. Low-severity surface fires temporarily enhanced the reproductive capacity of surviving trees and the density of seedlings, likely as a stress response to the fire event.

Peer and land-based approaches for fostering empowering and healthy relationships with Indigenous and northern young people in the Northwest Territories.

Indigenous and Northern women in Canada experience high rates of intimate partner violence (IPV), and this is particularly true in the Northwest Territories (NWT). Adolescents are also at increased risk of IPV, which has far-reaching, lifelong effects. Indigenous youth are particularly vulnerable to IPV due to ongoing effects of intergenerational trauma caused by colonialism, racism and residential school legacies. We explored attitudes towards IPV and the healthy relationship knowledge, skills, and experiences among participants of Fostering Open eXpression among Youth (FOXY) and Strength, Masculinities, and Sexual Health (SMASH) Peer Leader Retreats in the NWT. Multi-method approaches included quantitative surveys youth completed before and immediately following retreats. Quantitative analysis from retreats (2018-2021) included 240 participants aged 12-19 (mean age 14.5) who reported ever having an intimate partner. Most were from the FOXY program (64.2%), Indigenous (69.6%) and heterosexual (66.4%). Qualitative methods included Focus Group Discussions (FGD) (n = 69) conducted with peer leaders and apprentices (n = 311) and youth and adult staff (n = 14 FGDs, n = 165 participants). We thematically analysed FGDs to explore healthy relationship knowledge and skills, alongside paired t-tests to examine pre/post retreat changes in attitudes towards IPV. Qualitative findings suggest that leadership and embodied learning were effective in equipping youth with violence prevention and healthy relationship skills. While young women were committed to sharing knowledge and skills about healthy relationships in their communities, young men resonated with values of respect and appreciated support to identify and express emotions. Participants across programmes demonstrated their belief that healthy intimate relationships have communal, relational and intergenerational benefits. Quantitatively, we found a statistically significant reduction in attitudes accepting of IPV among young women, but no changes were noted among young men. Findings contribute to emergent evidence on strengths-based, culturally-responsive IPV prevention programming. Components of effective IPV prevention programming with young men merit further exploration.

Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder diagnostic clinic capacity in Canadian Provinces and territories.

This study investigated the diagnostic capacity for Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) in multidisciplinary clinics across several provincial and one territorial jurisdictions of Canada: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario and Northwest Territories. The data were collected directly from clinics capable of providing diagnoses of FASD and examined annual capacity for the assessment and diagnosis of FASD per year from 2015 to 2019. In total, 58 FASD diagnostic clinics were identified and 33 clinics participated in this survey. The study identified inadequate FASD diagnostic capacity in all participating jurisdictions. Based on the findings and the current population sizes, it is estimated that 98% of individuals with FASD are undiagnosed or misdiagnosed in Canada. Wait times for FASD diagnosis ranged from 1 month to 4.5 years across participating jurisdictions. The annual FASD diagnostic capacity in the select provinces and territories require at least a 67-fold increase per year.

Detection and Phylogenetic Analysis of Orf Virus and Muskox Rhadinovirus 1 from Muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) in the Canadian Arctic.

Orf virus (genus Parapoxvirus) has been associated with gross skin lesions on muskoxen (Ovibos moschatus) from Victoria Island, Nunavut, Canada, where muskox populations are experiencing population declines. Orf virus causes painful proliferative and necrotizing dermatitis upon viral replication and shedding, which may lead to animal morbidity or mortality through secondary infections and starvation. Herpesvirus, known to cause gross lesions on skin and mucosa during active viral replication, has also been documented in muskoxen but to date has not been associated with clinical disease. Our objective was to characterize the variation of orf virus and herpesvirus in wild muskoxen of the Canadian Arctic. Tissue samples including gross skin lesions from the nose, lips, and/or legs were opportunistically collected from muskoxen on Victoria Island, Nunavut and Northwest Territories, and mainland Nunavut, Canada, from 2015 to 2017. Sampled muskoxen varied in age, sex, location, hunt type, and body condition. Tissues from 60 muskoxen were tested for genetic evidence of orf virus and herpesvirus infection using PCR targeting key viral genes. Tissues from 38 muskoxen, including 15 with gross lesions, were also examined for histological evidence of orf virus and herpesvirus infection. Eleven muskoxen (10 from Victoria Island and one from mainland Nunavut) with gross lesions had microscopic lesions consistent with orf virus infection. Muskox rhadinovirus 1, a gammaherpesvirus endemic to muskoxen, was detected in 33 (55%) muskoxen including 17 with gross lesions. In all tissues examined, there was no histological evidence of herpesvirus-specific disease. Sequencing and characterization of amplified PCR products using phylogenetic analysis indicated that a strain of orf virus, which appears to be unique, is likely to be endemic in muskoxen from Victoria Island and mainland Nunavut. Many of the muskoxen are also subclinically infected with a known muskox-endemic strain of herpesvirus.

The Hunters of the Alpine Ice

The Hunters of the Alpine Ice exhibition originated from a research collaboration between territorial archaeologists and the first nation Mountain Dene, or Shúhtagot’ine, of the community of Tulita, in Canada’s Northwest Territories (NWT). The exhibit was part of the public communications component of the NWT Ice Patch Study, which was an International Polar Year (2007–2008) research project.

Modelling permafrost distribution using the temperature at top of permafrost model in the boreal forest environment of Whatì, NT

Current permafrost models in Canadian boreal forests are generally of low spatial resolution as they cover regional or continental scales. This study aims to understand the viability of creating a temperature at the top of permafrost (TTOP) model on a local scale in the boreal wetland environment of Whatì, Northwest Territories from short-term field-collected temperature data. The model utilizes independent variables of vegetation, topographic position index, and elevation, with the dependent variables being ground surface temperature collected from 60 ground temperature nodes and 1.5 m air temperature collected from 10 temperature stations. In doing this, the study investigates the relationship vegetation and disturbance have on ground temperature and permafrost distribution. The model predicts that 31% of the ground is underlain by permafrost, based on a mean annual temperature at TTOP of <0 °C. This model shows an accuracy of 62.5% when compared to cryotic assessment sites (CAS). Most inaccuracies, showing the limitations of the TTOP model, came from peat plateaus that had been burned in the most recent forest fire in 2014. These resulted in out-of-equilibrium permafrost and climatic conditions that TTOP cannot handle well. Commonly, permafrost mapping places Whatì in the extensive discontinuous zone, estimating that between 50% and 90% of the ground is underlain by permafrost. The study shows that a climatically driven TTOP model calibrated with CAS can be used to illustrate ground temperature heterogeneity from short-term data in boreal forest wetland environments. However, this approach likely underestimates permafrost extent and is perhaps not the best-suited modelling choice for near-surface permafrost, which is currently out of equilibrium with the current climate.

Patient-planetary health co-benefit prescribing in a circumpolar health region: a qualitative study of physician voices from the Northwest Territories, Canada

BackgroundDespite climate change being described as a code red for humanity, health systems have been particularly slow in both climate mitigation and adaptation responses. The effects of climate change on...

Tephra zircon U-Pb geochronology of kimberlite maar sedimentary fills in subarctic Canada: Implications for Eocene paleoclimate and Late Cretaceous paleogeography

The Wombat and Giraffe kimberlite pipes in the Lac de Gras kimberlite field (64°N, 110°W) of the Northwest Territories, Canada, preserve unique post-eruptive lacustrine and paludal sedimentary records that offer rare insight into high-latitude continental paleoclimate. However, depositional timing—a key datum for atmospheric CO2 and paleoclimatic proxy reconstructions—of these maar infills remains ambiguous and requires refinement because of the large range in the age of kimberlites within the Lac de Gras kimberlite field. Existing constraints for the Giraffe pipe post-eruptive lacustrine and paludal maar sedimentary facies include a maximum Rb-Sr age of ca. 48 Ma (Ypresian, Eocene) based on kimberlitic phlogopite and a glass fission-track age of ca. 38 Ma (Bartonian, Eocene). The age of the Wombat pipe lacustrine maar sediments remains unclear, with unpublished pollen-based biostratigraphy suggesting deposition in the Paleocene (66−56 Ma). In this study, we examine distal rhyolitic tephra beds recovered from exploration drill cores intersecting the Wombat and Giraffe maar facies. We integrate zircon U-Pb laser ablation−inductively coupled plasma−mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and chemical abrasion−isotope dilution−thermal ionization mass spectrometry (CA-ID-TIMS) geochronology, glass fission-track dating, palynology, and tephra glass geochemistry to refine chronological frameworks for these sedimentary deposits. The Giraffe maar CA-ID-TIMS tephra zircon U-Pb dating yielded a Bayesian model age of 47.995 ± 0.082|0.087 Ma (Ypresian) for the upper portion of the lacustrine sediments, while a single zircon grain from tephra in the lowermost lacustrine sediments had an age of 48.72 ± 0.29|0.30 Ma. The revised geochronology for the Giraffe maar provides a working age model for the ∼50 m record of lacustrine silt and indicates an age ∼10 m.y. older than previously thought. The Wombat maar LA-ICP-MS zircon U-Pb dating yielded an age of 80.9 ± 1.0 Ma (Campanian), which indicates deposition during the Late Cretaceous. This first radiometric age for the Wombat maar deposits is substantially older than earlier biostratigraphic inferences of a Paleocene age. This new age suggests that the Wombat maar sediments preserve evidence of some of the oldest known freshwater diatoms and synurophytes and provide key constraints for the paleogeography of the Western Interior Seaway during the Late Cretaceous.

Utilisation of local raw materials and mine waste to manufacture cement in the Northwest Territories, Canada

Currently, all the cement consumed in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, is imported from other provinces (e.g. Alberta) by long-distance (∼1800 km) freight truck. Transporting cement over long distances not only raises its cost, but also results in a higher carbon footprint. Producing cement locally is therefore a potential low carbon and economic solution for the local industry. However, it is unknown if the local raw materials are suitable for cement manufacture, and there is a lack of a critical raw material – iron ore – for cement manufacturing. However, instead of iron ore, there are iron-rich tailings from a local rare earth element (REE) mine. Towards a low carbon and circular economy, the use of local raw materials (i.e. limestone, clay and gypsum) and mine waste (REE tailings) to manufacture cement in the NWT was explored and the first bag of cement in the history of the NWT was produced. Concrete samples made with the NWT cement achieved strength comparable to that of concrete based on commercial ordinary Portland cement. In addition, it was estimated that locally producing cement in the NWT has the potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 3.0–61.7% as compared with importing cement from other provinces.

Rabies management structures and challenges in the North in a One Health framework

ABSTRACT Rabies is often described as the quintessential One Health problem, linking especially animal health to human health. I examined how rabies is managed in the circumpolar North through semi-structured interviews of key informants in three cases: Alaska, Northwest Territories, and Svalbard. While rabies is controlled at the territorial or state level in the Northwest Territories and Alaska, respectively, the perception of where authority lies in rabies management is less evident in Norway concerning Svalbard than in the other two cases. Respondents generally characterised the working relationship between sectors and scales of governments as positive. However, coordination remains one of the main challenges to rabies management, with harsh environmental conditions and small remote communities adding additional challenges in all three cases. Rabies managers in Svalbard also face unique conditions, such as risks associated with hunting and the particular administrative structure of Svalbard. Due to limited veterinary services in dispersed small and remote communities, dogs present challenges to rabies management in Alaska and the Northwest Territories. Personal relationships are important in disease management across agencies, and the unique challenges in the far North will likely pose challenges in adopting approaches to disease management from temperate climates.

Seasonal phenology of the little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus) at 60° N

AbstractTo investigate the impact of short summers and long summer solar periods at high latitudes on the behavior of a nocturnal, hibernating mammal, we recorded the phenology of Myotis lucifugus (little brown myotis) at 60° N in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. In particular, we assessed the timing of spring emergence from, and autumn entry into, hibernation, reproduction, and seasonal mass fluctuations. We used a combination of acoustic monitoring and capture surveys at two hibernacula and two maternity roosts during 2011 and 2012. Myotis spp. were active at the hibernacula from late April to late September/early October, suggesting that the “active” season length is similar to that of populations farther south. At maternity colonies, we detected M. lucifugus activity from early May to early October, with peaks during mid‐July in both years. Lactation, fledging, and weaning all occurred later in the NWT than at more southern locations, and reproductive rates were significantly lower than rates observed farther south. The average mass of individuals fluctuated throughout the season, with an initial decline immediately following emergence from hibernation likely reflecting increased energy expenditure due to flight and decreased use of torpor, coupled with relatively low prey intake due to low prey abundance associated with cool temperatures. Females did not appear to have lower pre‐hibernation masses than those in more southern populations, suggesting that despite the cool spring and autumn temperatures, and short summer nights, bats are able to obtain enough energy for reproduction and mass accumulation for hibernation. However, the lower reproductive rates may indicate that there are limitations to life at the northern limits of the species' range.

Human immunodeficiency virus prevention outcomes associated with arts-based sexual health workshop participation among Northern and Indigenous adolescents in the Northwest Territories, Canada.

Contextually tailored, arts-based HIV prevention strategies hold potential to advance adolescent sexual health and wellbeing. We examined HIV prevention outcomes associated with arts-based sexual health workshop participation with Northern and Indigenous adolescents in the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada. An Indigenous community-based youth agency delivered arts-based workshops in school settings to adolescents aged 13-18 in 24 NWT communities. Pre and post-test surveys included socio-demographic characteristics, sexually infections (STI) knowledge, HIV/STI risk perception, sexual relationship equity, condom use self-efficacy, and safer sex efficacy (SSE). Latent change score models were conducted to assess pre-post differences and factors associated with these differences. Among participants (n = 344; mean age 14.3 years, SD: 1.3; Indigenous: 79%) most (66%) had previously attended this workshop. Latent change score models revealed a significant and large effect size for increased STI knowledge (β = 2.10, SE = 0.48, p < .001) and significant and small effect sizes for increased HIV/STI risk perception (β = 0.24, SE = 0.06, p < .001) and SSE (β = 0.16, SE = 0.07, p = .02). The largest increases across several outcomes occurred with first time workshop participants; yet previous workshop participants continued to report increases in HIV/STI risk perception and SSE. Arts-based HIV prevention approaches show promise in advancing STI knowledge, risk perception, and SSE with Northern and Indigenous youth.

Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic.

The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit, seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. This study aims to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios. We used two long-term datasets on twelve tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64.87, -111.58) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78.83, -75.80). Plant species encompass a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Structural Equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years. We find that warming, both experimental and ambient, drives earlier flowering across species, which leads to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally ~2-3x stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2 to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology. Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, may outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.