Northward Turnings Research Articles

Unusual Tropical Cyclone Tracks under the Influence of Upper-Tropospheric Cold Low

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) accompanied by an upper-tropospheric cold low (CL) can experience unusual tracks. Idealized simulations resembling observed scenarios are designed in this study to investigate the impacts of a CL on TC tracks. The sensitivity of the TC motion to its location relative to the CL is examined. The results show that a TC follows a counterclockwise semicircle track if initially located east of a CL, while a TC experiences a small southward-looping track, followed by a sudden northward turn if initially located west of a CL. A TC on the west side experiences opposing CL and β steering, while they act in the same direction when a TC is on the east side of CL. The steering flow analyses show that the steering vector is dominated by upper-level flow induced by the CL at an early stage. The influence of CL extends downward and contributes to the lower-tropospheric asymmetric flow pattern of TC. As these two systems approach, the TC divergent outflow erodes the CL. The CL circulation is deformed and eventually merged with the TC when they are close. Since the erosion of CL, the TC motion is primarily related to β gyres at a later stage. The sensitivity of TC motion to the CL depth is also examined. TCs located west of a CL experience a westward track if the CL is shallow. In contrast, TCs initially located east of a CL all take a smooth track irrespective of the CL depth, and the CL depth mainly influences the track curvature and the TC translation speed. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to better understand how an upper-tropospheric cold low affects the motion of a nearby tropical cyclone. Our findings highlight distinct track patterns based on the relative positions of the tropical cyclone and the cold low. When the tropical cyclone is located on the east side of a cold low, a mutual rotation occurs, leading to a counterclockwise semicircle track of tropical cyclone. Conversely, if the tropical cyclone is located to the west side of a cold low, the cold low approaches and captures it, resulting in an abrupt northward turn when the cold low is eroded by the tropical cyclone. These insights improve the predictability of tropical cyclones in the vicinity of cold lows.

Substorm Triggering by the Solar Wind

AbstractThe coupling function monitors solar wind driving of geomagnetic activity. Magnetic indices, including the polar cap (PC) index, the auroral lower (AL) index, and the midlatitude positive bay index (MPB), provide measures of the magnetospheric response. Sharp changes in these are associated with the onset of a substorm and a maximum in coupling. Many reinterpret this association as evidence that northward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) trigger onset. We investigate this hypothesis using a list of over 100,000 negative bay onsets. When data are available, we calculate coupling and its time derivatives. From these, we construct ensembles of data segments centered on the onsets.`For all lists, a pulse occurs 20 min before onset and appears to trigger onset. By correlating the average derivative with every event in the ensemble, we conclude that a pulse of either sign precedes 40% of all onsets. More than half of the triggered onsets display a positive pulse, and slightly fewer show a negative pulse. Substorms following a positive pulse are stronger than those after a negative pulse. The pulse is usually hidden by noise, but ensemble averaging and correlation analysis can detect the pulse in the coupling data.

Factors Influencing the Track of Hurricane Dorian (2019) in the West Atlantic: Analysis of a HAFS Ensemble

Abstract Hurricane Dorian (2019), a category-5 tropical cyclone (TC), was characterized by a large spread in track forecasts as it moved northwest. A set of 80 ensemble forecasts from the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) was produced to evaluate Dorian’s track spread and the factors that contributed to it. Track spread was particularly critical at long lead times (5–7 days after initialization near the Lesser Antilles), because of the uncertainty in the location of landfall and hazards. Four clusters of members were analyzed based on the 7-day track, characterized by Dorian moving: 1) slowly near the northern Bahamas (closest to reality), 2) across the Florida Peninsula, 3) slowly into Florida’s east coast, and 4) quickly north of the Bahamas. Ensemble sensitivity techniques were applied to identify areas that were most critical for Dorian’s track. Key differences were found in the strength of the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean with a weaker ridge and slower easterly steering flow in the offshore groups. Subtle differences in the synoptic pattern over the United States also appeared to affect the timing of Dorian’s northward turn, specifically the strength of a shortwave trough moving over the Ohio Valley. Despite some early track differences, the correlation between early and late track errors was not significant. An examination of four members further highlights the differences in steering and the strength of the subtropical ridge. This study demonstrates the utility of ensemble datasets for studying TC forecast uncertainty and the importance of medium-range modeling of synoptic-scale steering features to accurately predict the track of tropical cyclones. Significance Statement Hurricane Dorian was a catastrophic hurricane for the Bahamas and got very close to Florida without directly impacting the state. Some early forecasts showed the storm moving directly into or across Florida; others correctly showed the storm stalling over the Bahamas and then turning northward. This track forecast uncertainty made preparations in Florida challenging; therefore, we wanted to better understand why Dorian took the track that it did, to see what this tells us about the factors that affect hurricane tracks, and learn for future storms. We looked at an ensemble of 80 runs of a hurricane model, initiated at the same time. Some runs showed a Florida landfall; others showed Dorian stalling over the Bahamas. The strength of the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic north of Dorian and an upper-level trough of low pressure over the United States were key influences on storm path. These two large-scale features were better forecast in the ensemble members that correctly showed Dorian stalling and turning northward. This study shows how useful ensembles can be for understanding the processes driving hurricane motion and also shows that it is critical to forecast multiple synoptic-scale features correctly to accurately predict a hurricane’s track 5–7 days in advance.

The Cold Avoidance of Typhoons in Their North Turning Over the South China Sea

Based on the typhoon best tracks of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ERA5 reanalysis data of ECMWF at 0.25 degrees horizontal resolution, and NOAA optimal interpolated sea surface temperature (OISST V2) data, the dynamical compositing analysis is used to study the north turning at nearly 90 degrees of 4 westward typhoons over the South China Sea (SCS). The composite analysis results show that: (1) As the typhoon goes westward into the SCS, the upper-level westerly trough moves eastward to the vicinity of 110°E in the mainland of China, and the western North Pacific subtropical high (SH) retreats eastward at the same time, which weakens the steering flow of typhoon and slowes down its movement. (2) The cold air guided by the westerly trough invades southwardly into the western part of SCS from the mainland leading to a descending and divergent airflow in the lower-to-middle atmospheric layers and enhancing the eastward pressure gradient force (PGF) in the west quadrant of the typhoon, which blocks and repesl the typhoon from moving any further westward. (3) Due to the cold air intrusion, the vertical atmospheric stratification in the west quadrant of the typhoon becomes static and stable, which may suppress the convection, impeding a typhoon’s westward motion. (4) With the cold air involving to the south of the typhoon, the direction of the PGF on the typhoon switches from eastward to northward, and the SH falling southward enhances the southwesterly airflow on the south of the typhoon at the same time. The remarkable increase of the northward steering airflows of the typhoon results in an abrupt northward turn. (5) In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the ocean heat content (OHC) on the western part of the SCS is also reduced, attributed to the cold air cooling, and the typhoon is likely to avoid the cold ocean and approach a relatively warmer region. This study suggests that cold avoidance during the westward movement of typhoons is worthy of consideration in the operational forecast of typhoon tracks.

The Responses of Ionospheric Conductivities on the Mid-Latitudes to Changes in the BZ Component of Interplanetary Magnetic Field

In this study, we investigate the response of the ionospheric conductivities on the middle latitudes to the southward and northward turnings of the BZ component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). For this purpose, parallel conductivity (σ0), Pedersen conductivity (σ1), Hall conductivity (σ2) data calculated for Rome (41.8° N, 12.5° E); Juliusruh (54.6° N, 13.4° E); Uppsala (59.8° N, 17.6° E); Lycksele (64.7° N, 18.8° E) during the 22nd solar cycle are examined. The superposed epoch analysis method is used to investigate the response of the conductivities to the southward and northward turnings of the BZ component. From the analysis results it is observed that the turnings in the BZ component of the IMF have significant effect on all conductivities. At the event moment (zero time), the southward turnings of the BZ component increases all conductivities while the northward turnings of the BZ component decreases all conductivities. The effect on the conductivities of the changes in the BZ component occurs before about 18 h from the event moment, and this effect disappears after about 24 h from the event moment. Furthermore, all of ionospheric conductivities shows or does less reaction to changes in the BZ component as latitude increase.

Three Different Episodes of Prompt Equatorial Electric Field Perturbations Under Steady Southward IMF Bz During St. Patrick's Day Storm

AbstractThree different episodes of prompt penetration electric field (PPEF) disturbances are observed during the main phase of the St. Patrick's Day storm on 17 March 2015 under steady southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz conditions unlike the conventional PPEF associated with southward or northward turnings of IMF Bz. These PPEF events took place during the period when strong disturbance dynamo fields are prevailing in the background. The first event is triggered by a solar wind dynamic pressure pulse that caused a sharp eastward PPEF and strong enhancement of equatorial electrojet current in Brazilian dayside. The second event caused another short but strong westward PPEF on dayside due to the reversal of IMF By from duskward to dawnward under steady IMF Bz. The third event caused a longer eastward PPEF in association with a solar wind dynamic pressure pulse followed by the onset of a substorm, which has led to strong enhancement of equatorial electrojet, quick rejuvenation and symmetric redistribution of equatorial ionization anomaly in the Brazilian sector. The signatures of the PPEF with opposite polarity and smaller magnitudes are also observed in the Asian sector on the nightside. The possible mechanisms for the observed PPEF events under steady IMF Bz are discussed in terms of changes in the high‐latitude field‐aligned currents and reconfiguration of high‐latitude convection fields using Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment and Super Dual Auroral Radar Network high‐frequency radar observations.

A Deep Learning‐Based Approach to Forecast the Onset of Magnetic Substorms

AbstractThe auroral substorm has been extensively studied over the last six decades. However, our understanding of its driving mechanisms is still limited and so is our ability to accurately forecast its onset. In this study, we present the first deep learning‐based approach to predict the onset of a magnetic substorm, defined as the signature of the auroral electrojets in ground magnetometer measurements. Specifically, we use a time history of solar wind speed (Vx), proton number density, and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components as inputs to forecast the occurrence probability of an onset over the next 1 hr. The model has been trained and tested on a data set derived from the SuperMAG list of magnetic substorm onsets and can correctly identify substorms ∼75% of the time. In contrast, an earlier prediction algorithm correctly identifies ∼21% of the substorms in the same data set. Our model's ability to forecast substorm onsets based on solar wind and IMF inputs prior to the actual onset time, and the trend observed in IMF Bz prior to onset together suggest that a majority of the substorms may not be externally triggered by northward turnings of IMF. Furthermore, we find that IMF Bz and Vx have the most significant influence on model performance. Finally, principal component analysis shows a significant degree of overlap in the solar wind and IMF parameters prior to both substorm and nonsubstorm intervals, suggesting that solar wind and IMF alone may not be sufficient to forecast all substorms, and preconditioning of the magnetotail may be an important factor.

New insights into prime Southern Ocean forage grounds for thriving Western Australian humpback whales

Humpback whale populations migrate extensively between winter breeding grounds and summer feeding grounds, however known links to remote Antarctic feeding grounds remain limited in many cases. New satellite tracks detail humpback whale migration pathways from Western Australia into the Southern Ocean. These highlight a focal feeding area during austral spring and early summer at the southern Kerguelen plateau, in a western boundary current where a sharp northward turn and retroflection of ocean fronts occurs along the eastern plateau edge. The topographic steering of oceanographic features here likely supports a predictable, productive and persistent forage ground. The spatial distribution of whaling catches and Discovery era mark-recaptures confirms the importance of this region to Western Australian humpback whales since at least historical times. Movement modelling discriminates sex-related behaviours, with females moving faster during both transit and resident periods, which may be a consequence of size or indicate differential energetic requirements. Relatively short and directed migratory pathways overall, together with high-quality, reliable forage resources may provide a partial explanation for the ongoing strong recovery demonstrated by this population. The combination of new oceanographic information and movement data provides enhanced understanding of important biological processes, which are relevant within the context of the current spatial management and conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.

Global Ionospheric Current System Associated With Penetration Electric Field and New Mechanism for the Generation of Dayside Westward Electric Field at Low Latitudes During Northward IMF

AbstractIt is well known that penetration and shielding electric fields are related to the southward and northward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The shielding electric field is assumed to be caused by the region‐2 field‐aligned currents. We have analyzed observations of equatorial ionospheric plasma drifts measured by the Jicamarca incoherent scatter radar and global ground magnetic perturbations in an event when the IMF fluctuates between southward and northward. The vertical plasma drifts/zonal electric fields in the dayside equatorial ionosphere are well correlated with the IMF reorientations, indicating that the disturbance electric fields in the equatorial ionosphere are caused by the IMF. Magnetometer data are used to reconstruct the global ionospheric currents and convection. The DP 2 current system consists of a large vortex in the afternoon‐evening sector and a much smaller vortex in the dawn sector, and the ionospheric currents associated with the dayside penetration electric field extend into the postmidnight sector. The downward plasma drift and southward magnetic perturbations at equatorial latitudes during northward IMF are correlated with the reverse convection in the polar cap, indicating that the polar electric field associated with the reverse convection is an important source of the westward electric field in the dayside equatorial region. A new mechanism is proposed to explain the generation of westward electric field in the dayside equatorial ionosphere during northward IMF.

Estimating the Rate of Cessation of Magnetospheric Activity in AMPERE Field‐Aligned Currents

AbstractThe decay of magnetospheric activity when driving is turned off (to a minimum) was measured in total field‐aligned current estimates from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment (AMPERE) project. Events of distinct northward turnings of the interplanetary magnetic field were identified, with prolonged periods of stable southward driving conditions followed by northward interplanetary magnetic field conditions. All but 4 of 43 identified events exhibit a well‐defined exponential decay in the total hemispheric field‐aligned current following the northward turning. A superposed epoch analysis yields a generic decay constant of 0.9, corresponding to an e‐folding time of 1.1 hr. A statistical analysis of the ensemble of events also reveals a seasonal variation in the decay parameter with faster decay observed in the winter than in the summer hemisphere. This result can be understood in terms of stronger/weaker line tying of the ionospheric foot points of magnetospheric field lines for higher/lower conductivity.

Dynamics of the Magnetospheric Magnetic Field during Strong Magnetic Storms in 2015 According to Measurements on Board Van Allen Probes and Modeling Results

The results of studies of proton flux dynamics of the ring current and magnetic field in the middle of radiation belts during two strong magnetic storms in 2015 (March 17–18, 2015 and June 22–23, 2015) with a close amplitude of Dst-variations (∣Dstmax∣ ~ 200 nT) are presented. An analysis of the experimental data obtained on board two space vehicles named Van Allen Probes (earlier: Radiation Belt Storm Probes, RBSP), located at an orbit close to equatorial is performed. Modeling of the ring current and magnetic field in the frames of the paraboloid model of Earth’s magnetosphere А2000 is conducted. Confirmation of the existence of a mechanism for ring current development and, respectively, geomagnetic storm under the action of a strong pulse of solar-wind pressure is obtained as a result of comparative analysis of ring current dynamics and the magnetic field in the middle of radiation belts during the main phases of two storms in 2015. It is found that during the magnetic storm of June 22–23, 2015, the development of the ring current during the main phase continued despite the northward turn of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and the following period with positive Bz in the solar wind. The effect observed during June 22–23, 2015 is explained by the intensification of storm ring current due to a long and powerful pulse of the solar wind pressure that led to a nonadiabatic transport of the ring current particles to lower L shells.

Environmental Conditions During the Reported Charging Anomalies of the Two Geosynchronous Satellites: Telstar 401 and Galaxy 15

AbstractCharging and subsequent electrostatic discharge is recognized as a serious operational threat to spacecraft. This paper concentrates on an analysis of the environmental conditions (geomagnetic measurables, but not the particle fluxes, that were associated with the geomagnetic disturbances) and the interplanetary signatures prior to the anomalies that affected the two geostationary satellites Telstar 401 and Galaxy 15, which were believed to have been caused by spacecraft charging/electrostatic discharge. In terms of geomagnetic conditions, the planetary Kp index was very different around the two events, despite Kp commonly being used to characterize periods that are hazardous for spacecraft charging. On the contrary, local geomagnetic records, both from GOES satellites and from ground records, reveal that each anomaly took place during the expansion phase of a triggered substorm. Combined with a large and south directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz, northward turnings of negative IMF Bz and large fluctuations in IMF By played major roles in the magnetospheric responses of the substorms. The interplanetary features of the two events were also similar: the interplanetary counterpart of coronal mass ejections interacted with high‐speed streams, favoring the substorm triggers. Although there are several differences in the preconditioning and the inner conditions of the magnetosphere before the anomalies, in each case the respective spacecraft crossed the plasma sheet in the magnetotail during enhanced substorm activity, with a dipolarization event that took place close to the spacecraft location, indicating that each satellite was in the wrong place at a critical moment.

Large Magnetic Storm on September 7–8, 2017: High-Latitude Geomagnetic Variations and Geomagnetic Pc5 Pulsations

The features of daytime high-latitude geomagnetic variations and geomagnetic pulsations in the Рс5 range during the recent, large, two-stage magnetic storm of September 7–8, 2017 are studied. The discussed disturbances were observed at the recovery phase of the first stage of the storm after the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) turned northward. It is shown that the large sign-alternating variations in Ву and Bz components of the IMF caused intense geomagnetic disturbances up to 300–400 nT with a quasi-period of ~20 min in the daytime sector of polar latitudes, probably in the region of the daytime polar cusp. These disturbances may have reflected quasi-period motions of the daytime magnetopause and may have resulted from nonlinear transformation of the variations in the interplanaterary magnetic field in the magnetosheath or in the magnetospheric entry layers. The appearance of high-latitude long-period variations was accompanied by the excitation of bursts (wave packets) of geomagnetic Pc5 pulsations. The onset of Pc5 pulsation bursts often coincided with a sudden northward turn of the IMF. It was discovered for the first time that the development of a “daytime polar substorm,” i.e., a negative magnetic bay in the daytime sector of polar latitudes, led to a sudden termination of the generation of geomagnetic Pc5 pulsations over the entire latitude range in which these oscillations were recorded before the appearance of the daytime bay.

Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Track to the Vertical Structure of a Nearby Monsoon Gyre

Abstract The impact of different vertical structures of a nearby monsoon gyre (MG) on a tropical cyclone (TC) track is investigated using idealized numerical simulations. In the experiment with a relatively deeper MG, the TC experiences a sharp northward turn at a critical point when its zonal westward-moving speed slows down to zero. At the same time, the total vorticity tendency for the TC wavenumber-1 component nearly vanishes as the vorticity advection by the MG cancels the vorticity advection by the TC. At this point, the TC motion is dominated by the beta effect, as in a no-mean-flow environment, and takes a sharp northward turn. In contrast, the TC does not exhibit a sharp northward turn with a shallower MG nearby. In the case with a deeper MG, a greater relative vorticity gradient of the MG promotes a quicker attraction between the TC and MG through the vorticity segregation process. In addition, a larger outer size of the TC also favors a faster westward propagation from its initial position, thus having more potential to collocate with the MG. Once the coalescence is in place, the Rossby wave energy dispersion associated with the TC and MG together is enhanced and rapidly strengthens the southwesterly flow on the eastern flank of both systems. The steering flow from both the beta gyre and the Rossby wave dispersion leads the TC to take a sharp northward track when the total vorticity tendency is at its minimum. This study indicates the importance of good representations of the TC structure and its nearby environmental flows in order to accurately predict TC motions.

Numerical Study of the Influences of a Monsoon Gyre on Intensity Changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015)

Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015) underwent a weakening in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) when it interacted with a monsoon gyre, but all operational forecasts failed to predict this intensity change. A recent observational study indicated that it resulted from its interaction with a monsoon gyre on the 15-30-day timescale. In this study, the results of two numerical experiments are presented to investigate the influence of the monsoon gyre on the intensity changes of Typhoon Chan-Hom (2015). The control experiment captures the main observed features of the weakening process of Chan-Hom (2015) during a sharp northward turn in the Philippine Sea, including the enlargement of the eye size, the development of strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre, and the corresponding strong outer inflow. The sensitivity experiment suggests that intensity changes of Chan-Hom (2015) were mainly associated with its interaction with the monsoon gyre. When Chan-Hom (2015) initially moved westward in the eastern part of the monsoon gyre, the monsoon gyre enhanced the inertial stability for the intensification of the typhoon. With its coalescence with the monsoon gyre, the development of the strong convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre prevented moisture and mass entering the inner core of Chan-Hom (2015), resulting in the collapse of the eyewall. Thus, the weakening happened in the deep tropical WNP region. The numerical simulations confirm the important effects of the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres on tropical cyclone intensity.

Rapid Weakening of Tropical Cyclones in Monsoon Gyres over the Tropical Western North Pacific

Abstract As one major source of forecasting errors in tropical cyclone intensity, rapid weakening of tropical cyclones [an intensity reduction of 20 kt (1 kt = 0.51 m s−1) or more over a 24-h period] over the tropical open ocean can result from the interaction between tropical cyclones and monsoon gyres. This study aims to examine rapid weakening events occurring in monsoon gyres in the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) basin during May–October 2000–14. Although less than one-third of rapid weakening events happened in the tropical WNP basin south of 25°N, more than 40% of them were associated with monsoon gyres. About 85% of rapid weakening events in monsoon gyres occurred in September and October. The rapid weakening events associated with monsoon gyres are usually observed near the center of monsoon gyres when tropical cyclone tracks make a sudden northward turn. The gyres can enlarge the outer size of tropical cyclones and tend to induce prolonged rapid weakening events with an average duration of 33.2 h. Large-scale environmental factors, including sea surface temperature changes, vertical wind shear, and midlevel environmental humidity, are not primary contributors to them, suggesting the possible effect of monsoon gyres on these rapid weakening events by modulating the tropical cyclone structure. This conclusion is conducive to improving operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity.

Influences of Large-Scale Flow Variations on the Track Evolution of Typhoons Morakot (2009) and Megi (2010): Simulations with a Global Variable-Resolution Model

AbstractInfluences of large-scale flow variations on the track evolution of two typhoons, moderate Morakot (2009) and superintense Megi (2010), are investigated using the global variable-resolution model MPAS with a higher-resolution region of 15 km for the simulated typhoons. For Morakot, the associated track and extreme rainfall over southern Taiwan captured by MPAS compared well with the regional WRF simulations. To isolate the influences of various large-scale flows, three modes are filtered out from global reanalysis: the synoptic-scale mode, quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBW) mode, and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) mode. In the absence of QBW or MJO, the simulated Morakot moves westward across Taiwan without the observed north turn after landfall. When the intensity of the MJO mode is increased by 50% in the experiment (MJO+50%), a much earlier northward turn is induced. The simulated Morakot under the observed MJO lies in between MJO+50% and MJO−50% results. The MJO variations also show similar impacts on the track evolution of Typhoon Megi.The wavenumber-1 decompositions of vorticity budget terms are shown to highlight important contributions to the vorticity tendency and typhoon translation with and without the MJO. The northward turn of both typhoons in the presence of the MJO is mainly in response to positive horizontal vorticity advection to the north of the typhoon center. However, vorticity tilting is relatively more important for Morakot due to its slantwise structure. Furthermore, positive vorticity stretching and vertical advection are significant in the vicinity of southern Taiwan due to the effects of the Central Mountain Range and tend to retard the departing Morakot.

Investigation of isolated substorms: Generation conditions and characteristics of different phases

Characteristics of isolated substorms selected by variations in the 1-min values of the AL index are analyzed. The substorms were divided into several types with respect to the behavior of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) during the expansion phase. The probability of observations of substorms associated with the northward turn of the Bz component of IMF was ~19%, while the substorms taking place at Bz 30 min) period of the southward IMF and a following sharp turn of the Bz component of IMF before the north was detected. The data suggest that a northward IMF turn is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for generating substorms. It has been shown for substorms of the both types that the average duration of the southward IMF to moment T 0 and the average intensity of the magnetic perturbation in the maximum are approximately the same and amount to ~80 min and–650 nT, respectively. However, for substorms at Bz < 0, their mean duration, including the expansive and recovery phases, is on average 30 min longer than that at a northward turn of IMF. Correlations between the loading–unloading processes in the magnetosphere in the periods of magnetospheric substorms were investigated with different functions that determine the efficiency of the energy transfer from the solar wind to the magnetosphere. It has been shown that the highest correlation coefficient (r = 0.84) is observed when the function suggested by Newell et al. (2007) is used. It has been detected that a simple function VB S yields a high correlation coefficient (r = 0.75).

Rapid weakening of Typhoon Chan‐Hom (2015) in a monsoon gyre

AbstractA monsoon gyre is a low‐frequency cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific, which plays important roles in tropical cyclone formation and motion. This study shows that the interaction between a monsoon gyre and a tropical cyclone can lead to a sudden weakening of the tropical cyclone through an observational analysis of Typhoon Chan‐Hom (2015). Typhoon Chan‐Hom (2015) initially moved westward along ~10°N and sharply turned northeastward in the Philippine Sea at 0000 UTC 3 July. Its intensity decreased by 10.3 m s−1 within 12 h during the sudden northward turn. Such a rapid weakening event was failed to predict in all of the operational forecasts. It is found that Chan‐Hom was coalescing with a large‐scale monsoon gyre on the intraseasonal (15–30 day) timescale, while it experienced the sudden track change and rapid intensity weakening. The weak and loosely organized convection on the eastern side of the monsoon gyre at 1200 UTC 2 July rapidly enhanced into the well‐organized convection within 6 h. The strong convection maintaining from 1800 UTC 2 July to 0600 UTC 3 July enhanced inflows outside the radius of 500 km from the tropical cyclone center, which prevented the inward transportation of mass and moisture into Chan‐Hom, leading to the collapsing of the eastern part of the eyewall. As a result, Chan‐Hom underwent the rapid weakening even under a large‐scale environment favorable for intensification. The study suggests that the rapid weakening of a tropical cyclone can result from its interaction with a monsoon gyre.

Assimilating AMSU-a radiance data with the WRF hybrid En3DVAR system for track predictions of Typhoon Megi (2010)

The impact of assimilating radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on the track prediction of Typhoon Megi (2010) was studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a hybrid ensemble three-dimensional variational (En3DVAR) data assimilation (DA) system. The influences of tuning the length scale and variance scale factors related to the static background error covariance (BEC) on the track forecast of the typhoon were studied. The results show that, in typhoon radiance data assimilation, a moderate length scale factor improves the prediction of the typhoon track. The assimilation of AMSU-A radiances using 3DVAR had a slight positive impact on track forecasts, even when the static BEC was carefully tuned to optimize its performance. When the hybrid DA was employed, the track forecast was significantly improved, especially for the sharp northward turn after crossing the Philippines, with the flow-dependent ensemble covariance. The flow-dependent BEC can be estimated by the hybrid DA and was capable of adjusting the position of the typhoon systematically. The impacts of the typhoon-specific BEC derived from ensemble forecasts were revealed by comparing the analysis increments and forecasts generated by the hybrid DA and 3DVAR. Additionally, for 24 h forecasts, the hybrid DA experiment with use of the full flow-dependent background error substantially outperformed 3DVAR in terms of the horizontal winds and temperature in the lower and mid-troposphere and for moisture at all levels.