Abstract
Based on the typhoon best tracks of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA), ERA5 reanalysis data of ECMWF at 0.25 degrees horizontal resolution, and NOAA optimal interpolated sea surface temperature (OISST V2) data, the dynamical compositing analysis is used to study the north turning at nearly 90 degrees of 4 westward typhoons over the South China Sea (SCS). The composite analysis results show that: (1) As the typhoon goes westward into the SCS, the upper-level westerly trough moves eastward to the vicinity of 110°E in the mainland of China, and the western North Pacific subtropical high (SH) retreats eastward at the same time, which weakens the steering flow of typhoon and slowes down its movement. (2) The cold air guided by the westerly trough invades southwardly into the western part of SCS from the mainland leading to a descending and divergent airflow in the lower-to-middle atmospheric layers and enhancing the eastward pressure gradient force (PGF) in the west quadrant of the typhoon, which blocks and repesl the typhoon from moving any further westward. (3) Due to the cold air intrusion, the vertical atmospheric stratification in the west quadrant of the typhoon becomes static and stable, which may suppress the convection, impeding a typhoon’s westward motion. (4) With the cold air involving to the south of the typhoon, the direction of the PGF on the typhoon switches from eastward to northward, and the SH falling southward enhances the southwesterly airflow on the south of the typhoon at the same time. The remarkable increase of the northward steering airflows of the typhoon results in an abrupt northward turn. (5) In addition, the sea surface temperature (SST) and the ocean heat content (OHC) on the western part of the SCS is also reduced, attributed to the cold air cooling, and the typhoon is likely to avoid the cold ocean and approach a relatively warmer region. This study suggests that cold avoidance during the westward movement of typhoons is worthy of consideration in the operational forecast of typhoon tracks.
Highlights
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a kind of severe weather system which can cause tremendous loss of human life and social property through excessive torrential rainfall, flash floods, and strong winds, etc
This study aims to gain a better understanding of the relationship between TC north turning and cold air intrusion in order to promote TC track forecasting technique over the South China Sea (SCS)
The effects of cold air during the north turning of the TCs over the SCS are studied in this paper
Summary
A tropical cyclone (TC) is a kind of severe weather system which can cause tremendous loss of human life and social property through excessive torrential rainfall, flash floods, and strong winds, etc. The western North Pacific (WNP) basin experiences on average 26 TCs each year, accounting for about 33% of the global total, and is the most active region of TCs on the Earth (Yumoto and Matsuura, 2001; Wu and Wang, 2004) What is more, 13% of TCs are generated in the South China. Zhang et al (2018) identified 1,059 typhoons over the WNP in the past 65 years and found that the UNTK events could be categorized into seven types, in which the sharply north turning typhoons accounted for more than 20%, and all of the UNTK events tended to take place in the areas to the south of 30°N with the most frequency in the SCS and the east of the Philippines. Based on operational track forecasts from the NMC/CMA for seven sudden north-turning cases during 2005–2010, the average 24- and 48-h forecast errors in distance increased by 29.3 and 68.3%, respectively, compared to the average errors for all TCs (Wu et al, 2013)
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