Northward Propagation Research Articles

High-frequency atmospheric variability over South China Sea as depicted by TRMM and QuikSCAT

By using the TRMM and QuikSCAT datathe characteristics of the 2–8 day high frequency atmospheric variability over the South China Sea are studied in this paper. It’s found that: (1) the 2–8 day high frequency signals are significant not only during the periods of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon (SCSSM), but also after the retreat of the SCSSM. It reaches its peak around July to August; (2) the 2–8 day high frequency signals exhibit strong intermittent features; (3) During El Nino years, the 2–8 day high frequency signals are active only in the periods of the SCSSM. During La Nina years, the 2–8 day high frequency signals are obviously not only in periods of the SCSSM, but also after the retreat of the SCSSM. During the SCSSM periods, the 2–8 day high frequency signals in El Nino years are much stronger than that in La Nina years; (4) During spring to early summer, most of 2–8 day signals propagate southward and eastward, during midsummer to autumn, however, most of 2–8-day signals propagate northward and westward; (5) The 2–8 day northward and westward propagation signals is probably related to the activities of high-frequency vortex over the SCS.

Interactions between Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillations and Synoptic-Scale Disturbances over the Western North Pacific. Part II: Apparent Heat and Moisture Sources and Eddy Momentum Transport*

Abstract The interactions between the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and synoptic-scale variability (SSV) are investigated by diagnosing the atmospheric apparent heat source (Q1), apparent moisture sink (Q2), and eddy momentum transport. It is found that the synoptic Q1 and Q2 heating (cooling) anomalies are in phase with cyclonic (anticyclonic) vorticity disturbances, aligned in a southeast–northwest-oriented wave train pattern over the western North Pacific (WNP). The wave train is well organized and strengthened (loosely organized and weakened) during the ISO active (suppressed) phase. The nonlinearly rectified Q1 and Q2 fields due to the eddy–mean flow interaction account for 10%–30% of the total intraseasonal Q1 and Q2 variabilities over the WNP. During the ISO active (suppressed) phase, the nonlinearly rectified intraseasonal Q1 and Q2 heating (cooling) appear to the northwest of the ISO enhanced (suppressed) convection center, favoring the northwestward propagation of the ISO. A diagnosis of the zonal momentum budget shows that the eddy momentum flux convergence forces an intraseasonal westerly (easterly) tendency to the north of the ISO westerly (easterly) center during the ISO active (suppressed) phase. As a result, the eddy momentum transport may contribute to the northward propagation of the boreal summer ISO over the WNP.

Metamorphism and diachronous cooling in a contractional orogen: the Strandja Massif, NW Turkey

AbstractThe southern part of the Strandja Massif, northern Thrace, Turkey, comprises a basement of various gneisses, micaschists and rare amphibolite, and a cover of metaconglomerate and metasandstone, separated from each other by a pre-metamorphic unconformity. Metamorphic grade decreases from the epidote–amphibolite facies in the south to the albite–epidote–amphibolite/greenschist-facies transition in the north. Estimated P–T conditions are 485–530°C and 0.60–0.80 GPa in the epidote–amphibolite facies domain, and decrease towards the transitional domain between greenschist- and epidote–amphibolite facies. Rb–Sr muscovite ages range from 162.9 ± 1.6 Ma to 149.1 ± 2.1 Ma, and are significantly older (279–296 Ma) in the northernmost part of the study area. The Rb–Sr biotite ages decrease from 153.9 ± 1.5 Ma in the south to 134.4 ± 1.3 Ma in the north. These age values in conjunction with the attained temperatures suggest that the peak metamorphism occurred at around 160 Ma and cooling happened diachronously, and Rb–Sr muscovite ages were not reset during the metamorphism in the northernmost part. Structural features such as (i) consistent S-dipping foliation and SW to SE-plunging stretching lineation, (ii) top-to-the-N shear sense, and (iii) N-vergent ductile shear zones and brittle thrusts suggest a N-vergent compressional deformation coupled with exhumation. We tentatively ascribe this metamorphism and subsequent diachronous cooling to the northward propagation of a thrust slice. The compressional events in the Strandja Massif were most probably related to the coeval N-vergent subduction/collision system in the southerly lying Rhodope Massif.

Magnetostratigraphy of the Northern Tian Shan foreland, Taxi He section, China

TheTian Shan range formed in the late Cenozoic in response to the northward propagation of deformation related to the India^Eurasia continental collision. Precise timing of theTian Shan uplift is required to understand possible mechanisms of continental lithosphere deformation and interactions between climate, tectonism and erosion.Here, we provide magnetostratigraphic age control on the northern ChineseTian Shan foreland successions. A thorough rock magnetic analysis identifies haematite- and magnetite-bearing alluvial fan deposits in the upper portion of the sampled strata as more reliable palaeomagnetic recorders than magnetite-bearing £uvial and lacustrine deposits that are often maghaemitized in the lower part of the record. As a result, a robust correlation to the geomagnetic polarity time scale is obtained from6 to 2Ma while a tentative correlation is proposed from6 to 16Ma. Sediment accumulation rates increase from155 to 260mMyr-1 at 3.9 ± 0.3Ma.This change coincides with a gradual lithologic transition from £uvial (sandstonedominated) to alluvial fan (conglomerate-dominated) deposits that likely records an approaching erosional source related to tectonically increased subsidence rather than diierential compaction. Clear evidence for growth strata starting at an estimated age of ~2Ma provides a minimum age for folding.These results are compared with previous magneotstratigraphic studies from the same and other sections of the northernTian Shan foreland basin fill, thus enabling a critical assessment of the reliability of magnetostratigraphic dating and the significance of sediment accumulation rate variations with respect to facies variations and growth strata. Our results in theTaxiHe section provide a sequence of events that is consistentwith enhanced tectonic forcing starting at ~4Ma, although a climatic contribution must be considered given the close relationship of these ages with the Pliocene climate deterioration.

Petrogenesis of Latest Miocene–Quaternary Continental Intraplate Volcanism along the Northern Dead Sea Fault System (Al Ghab–Homs Volcanic Field), Western Syria: Evidence for Lithosphere–Asthenosphere Interaction

Late Miocene to Quaternary intraplate basaltic volcanism in the Al Ghab and Homs regions, northwestern Syria (the Al Ghab volcanic group and the Homs volcanic group), occurred roughly synchronously with the propagation of the Dead Sea Fault System in these regions. Petrographic evidence as well as major and trace element variations suggest that the basalts have undergone varying amounts of crystal fractionation of olivineclinopyroxenespinel, with feldspar fractionation only in the most evolved samples. The major and trace element chemistry and Nd^Sr^Pb isotopic variations of the basalts reflect both mantle source heterogeneity and relatively minor crustal contamination. Semi-quantitative assimilation^fractional crystal- lization modelling suggests that some samples may reflect assimila- tion of no more than 6% of upper continental crust, probably with Late Proterozoic Arabian Shield characteristics. Amongst the least crustally contaminated and relatively primitive samples, basanites are characterized by marked depletion of K, Rb and Zr relative to other neighbouring incompatible elements on primitive mantle nor- malized trace element diagrams. This, together with their low SiO2 and highTiO2 and Dy/Yb, is consistent with magma genesis invol- ving a large proportion of garnet-bearing hornblendite or similar amphibole-rich metasomatic veins. Associated alkali and tholeiitic basalts with the higher SiO2 ,l ower TiO 2, less negative K, Rb and Zr anomalies, and moderately high Dy/Yb are consistent with melt extraction from a largely peridotitic mantle source. It is suggested that the compositional spectrum from basanite via alkali basalt to tholeiitic basalt can be explained by increasing degrees of metasomat- ic vein^wall-rock interaction, plus asthenospheric melt assimilation. In agreement with this is the identification of three distinct isotopic and chemical characteristics within the spectrum of mafic lavas, each of which can be referred to a unique mantle source (metasomatic vein, lithospheric wall-rock peridotite mantle and asthenospheric peridotite mantle). A decrease in eruption volume and increase in Si-undersaturation of the lavas from south (Homs) to north (Al Ghab) along the northern Dead Sea Fault System from latest Miocene to Quaternary times suggest a diminishing thermal per- turbation and increasing importance of the amphibole-rich veins in magma genesis over time. It is proposed that the genesis of the oldest lavas reflects the arrival of asthenospheric melts beneath the Homs region, which with assimilation of lithospheric metasomatic veins and their wall-rocks produced the parental magmas of the Homs vol- canic group. Subsequently, upwelling asthenospheric material could have been channelled northwards at the base of the lithosphere, pre- sumably related to the northward propagation of the Dead Sea Fault System in the Pliocene. Cooling of this channelled astheno- spheric material, which did not penetrate the lithosphere during this later period of magma genesis, provided the minimal thermal

Mechanism for northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation: Convective momentum transport

This study demonstrates that the momentum transport by cumulus convection plays a significant role in the organization and northward propagation of intraseasonal (ISO) convection anomalies over the Indian and western Pacific regions during boreal summer. A version of Seoul National University's atmosphere‐ocean coupled general circulation model simulates northward propagation when convective momentum transport (CMT) is implemented; the northward propagation disappears when CMT is disabled. An axially symmetric shallow water model with a parameterized CMT is used to understand the role of CMT in the northward propagation of ISO. The basic mechanism of northward propagation is the lower‐level convergence to the north of convection, which is induced by the secondary meridional circulation associated with large momentum mixing by convection in the region of large mean vertical shear. A large mean vertical shear exists in South Asian region during boreal summer.

Water Mass Structure of Warm and Cold Anticyclonic Eddies in the Western Boundary Region of the Subarctic North Pacific

Abstract Vertical profile data of temperature and salinity from various sources were analyzed together with satellite altimeter data to investigate the water mass characteristics of warm and cold anticyclonic eddies in the western boundary region of the subarctic North Pacific. A dense distribution of anticyclonic eddies with warm and saline core water occurred near the Kuroshio Extension, and the distribution extends northward–northeastward into the western subarctic gyre along the Japan and Kuril–Kamchatka trenches. Eddies with cold and fresh core water are found mainly around the Oyashio southward intrusions and farther north near the Kuril Islands. Based on the heat content anomaly integrated over 50–200 dbar, 85% of the anticyclonic eddies within the study area (35°–50°N, 140°–155°E) have a warm and saline core and 15% have a cold and fresh core. Warm and saline eddies around the Japan and Kuril–Kamchatka trenches have a double-core structure, with a cold and freshwater mass located below the warm core. The northward propagation of these eddies along the trench line results in a large northward heat (salinity) transport in the upper 400 dbar (250 dbar) and a negative salinity transport below 350 dbar. The lower core water is colder and fresher on isopycnal surfaces at around 26.70σθ compared with the climatology. Given that the 26.70σθ isopycnal surface does not outcrop in the open North Pacific, an alignment process is suggested to occur between the warm and saline and the cold and fresh anticyclonic eddies in the upper and intermediate layers, respectively.

Effects of air–sea coupling on the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Indian Ocean

The effects of air–sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) on the eastward- and northward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) are investigated by comparing a fully coupled (CTL) and a partially decoupled Indian Ocean (pdIO) experiment using SINTEX-F coupled GCM. Air–sea coupling over the TIO significantly enhances the intensity of both the eastward and northward propagations of the BSISO. The maximum spectrum differences of the northward- (eastward-) propagating BSISO between the CTL and pdIO reach 30% (25%) of their respective climatological values. The enhanced eastward (northward) propagation is related to the zonal (meridional) asymmetry of sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). A positive SSTA appears to the east (north) of the BSISO convection, which may positively feed back to the BSISO convection. In addition, air–sea coupling may enhance the northward propagation through the changes of the mean vertical wind shear and low-level specific humidity. The interannual variations of the TIO regulate the air–sea interaction effect. Air–sea coupling enhances (reduces) the eastward-propagating spectrum during the negative Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, positive Indian Ocean basin (IOB) mode and normal years (during positive IOD and negative IOB years). Such phase dependence is attributed to the role of the background mean westerly in affecting the wind-evaporation-SST feedback. A climatological weak westerly in the equatorial Indian Ocean can be readily reversed by anomalous zonal SST gradients during the positive IOD and negative IOB events. Although the SSTA is always positive to the northeast of the BSISO convection for all interannual modes, air–sea coupling reduces the zonal asymmetry of the low-level specific humidity and thus the eastward propagation spectrum during the positive IOD and negative IOB modes, while strengthening them during the other modes. Air–sea coupling enhances the northward propagation under all interannual modes due to the persistent westerly monsoon flow over the northern Indian Ocean.

Migrating magmatism in a continental arc: Geodynamics of the Eastern Mediterranean revisited

The eastern Pontide orogenic belt in Turkey offers a critical region to evaluate the geodynamic evolution of the eastern Mediterranean region during the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic. Here we synthesize results from our exhaustive database on the geochemical characteristics of adakitic magmatism from 137 bodies covering 7 domains in the southern zone of eastern Pontides. Together with new Pb–Sr–Nd results, we show that the adakitic magmatism in the eastern Pontide belt is clearly linked to slab window processes during ridge subduction, as against the earlier models that assumed partial melting of a delaminated or thickened lower continental crust following collision. The isotopic compositions display a complex pattern and suggest mixing of multiple source materials such as depleted mantle, enriched lithospheric mantle, and upper crust. We also confirm a southward polarity of subduction as against the previous models that assumed a northward subduction. We supplement our model with evidence for a northward propagation of the adakitic magmatism, spatial and temporal variations in arc magmatism, presence of south-dipping reverse faults and a synthesis of the available paleomagnetic data. Our studies also suggest that the Black-Sea is a remnant of the Tethyan ocean that was situated to the north of the arc during the late Mesozoic–Cenozoic as against the correlation to a late Mesozoic–Cenozoic back-arc basin related to a northward subduction of the Paleo- or Neo-tethyan oceanic lithosphere in alternate models.

On factors responsible for recent secular trend in the onset phase of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations

AbstractThe timing of the dramatic ‘onset’ and subsequent northward progression of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) are unique features of the monsoon annual cycle and are strongly linked to planning of agricultural activity and water management. Here, we show that the northward propagation of the first episode of intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) associated with the onset phase of ISM has slowed down significantly during the past decade compared with prior decades. The slowdown is due to systematic weakening of two regional climatic features responsible for northward progression of the tropical convergence zone (TCZ) namely, the vertical easterly wind shear and the north–south gradient of the mean low‐level humidity around the equator. Eastward shift of the Walker circulation associated with increasing strength of El Ninos appears to be responsible for weakening of the vertical wind shear over Indian monsoon region. The slow northward propagation during recent decades leads to a climatological sub‐seasonal oscillation representing a predictable component of the onset phase of the ISM. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

West African Monsoon water cycle: 2. Assessment of numerical weather prediction water budgets

Water budgets from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re‐Analysis (ERA)‐Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis I and II are intercompared and compared to GPS precipitable water and to the 6 year hybrid budget data set described in part 1 of this study. Deficiencies are evidenced in the reanalyses which are most pronounced over the Sahel. Results from operational models (ECMWF Integrated Forecast System, NCEP Global Forecast System, and ARPEGE‐Tropiques) and the special ECMWF African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses reanalysis confirm and help understanding these findings. A bias (∼1–2 mm d−1) in precipitation and evapotranspiration leads to an unrealistic view of West Africa as a moisture source during the summer. North of the rainband (13°N–16°N), moisture flux convergence (MFC) shows a minimum in the NCEP models and divergence in the ECMWF models not consistent with the hybrid data set. This feature, added to presence of a deep layer of northerly dry air advected at midlevels (800–400 hPa), is thought to block the development of deep convection in the models and the northward propagation of the monsoonal rainband. The northerly flow is part of a shallow meridional circulation that is driven by the Saharan heat low. This circulation appears too strong in some of the models, a possible consequence of the too‐approximate representation of physical processes and land surface properties over the Sahel. In most of the models, evapotranspiration shows poor connection with precipitation. This is linked with large analysis increments in precipitable water, soil moisture, and MFC. Despite the large biases affecting the water budget components in the models, temporal variations (seasonal and interannual) might nevertheless be recovered with reasonable accuracy.

Exhumational history of the north central Pamir

[1] The Pamir plateau forms a prominent tectonic salient along the western end of the Tibet-Tarim margin. Despite its tectonic significance, relatively little is known about the timing of major Cenozoic tectonic events in the Pamir. Here we present new apatite and zircon (U/Th)-He ages, bulk rock geochemistry, and Al-in-hornblende barometry results from the Karakul graben, a prominent north-south oriented rift basin located ∼50 km south of the Main Pamir Thrust. Although cooling ages do not record the onset of extension, graben-bounding normal faults provide exposures of otherwise slowly eroding rocks which record two Cenozoic thermal events. Existing geochronology and new results suggest that granitic rocks in the Karakul region were shallowly emplaced, cooled very quickly through ∼300°C, and have experienced less than 10 km of exhumation since the late Triassic. A long period of relatively slow exhumation throughout much of the late Mesozoic and Cenozoic was punctuated by two periods of accelerated exhumation during the middle Eocene (∼50–40 Ma) and early Miocene (∼25–16 Ma). We interpret the first period of accelerated exhumation as a result of tectonic uplift and subsequent erosion due to the northward propagation of the India-Asia collision. We attribute the second period of rapid exhumation to a renewed phase of tectonism and plateau uplift in the Pamir, perhaps related to a break off event along the down-going Indian plate at ∼25 Ma or to the onset of slip along the nascent Karakoram fault.

The Skill of ECMWF Medium-Range Forecasts during the Year of Tropical Convection 2008

Abstract This study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model-generated high-resolution 10-day-long predictions for the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) 2008. Precipitation forecast skills of the model over the tropics are evaluated against the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. It has been shown that the model was able to capture the monthly to seasonal mean features of tropical convection reasonably. Northward propagation of convective bands over the Bay of Bengal was also forecasted realistically up to 5 days in advance, including the onset phase of the monsoon during the first half of June 2008. However, large errors exist in the daily datasets especially for longer lead times over smaller domains. For shorter lead times (less than 4–5 days), forecast errors are much smaller over the oceans than over land. Moreover, the rate of increase of errors with lead time is rapid over the oceans and is confined to the regions where observed precipitation shows large day-to-day variability. It has been shown that this rapid growth of errors over the oceans is related to the spatial pattern of near-surface air temperature. This is probably due to the one-way air–sea interaction in the atmosphere-only model used for forecasting. While the prescribed surface temperature over the oceans remain realistic at shorter lead times, the pattern and hence the gradient of the surface temperature is not altered with change in atmospheric parameters at longer lead times. It has also been shown that the ECMWF model had considerable difficulties in forecasting very low and very heavy intensity of precipitation over South Asia. The model has too few grids with “zero” precipitation and heavy (>40 mm day−1) precipitation. On the other hand, drizzle-like precipitation is too frequent in the model compared to that in the TRMM datasets. Further analysis shows that a major source of error in the ECMWF precipitation forecasts is the diurnal cycle over the South Asian monsoon region. The peak intensity of precipitation in the model forecasts over land (ocean) appear about 6 (9) h earlier than that in the observations. Moreover, the amplitude of the diurnal cycle is much higher in the model forecasts compared to that in the TRMM estimates. It has been seen that the phase error of the diurnal cycle increases with forecast lead time. The error in monthly mean 3-hourly precipitation forecasts is about 2–4 times of the error in the daily mean datasets. Thus, effort should be given to improve the phase and amplitude forecast of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from the model.

Changing climate in the Gulf of California

We conducted a four year interdisciplinary collaborative project focused in the Gulf of California, the most important fishing region for Mexico. We reviewed published reports, collected and analyzed physical, chemical and ecological data sets, and developed models for the physical (atmosphere and ocean) and ecological components of this large marine ecosystem, to examine prevalent scientific questions regarding climate variability and change in the region, covering three time scales (ENSO, decadal-to-interdecadal, and long-term trend). We were able to describe how the Gulf of California influences the northward propagation of coastal trapped Kelvin waves associated with El Niño (ENSO) events, and how this signal, together with changes in the atmospheric forcing, results in a ENSO signature inside the Gulf. For the decadal-to-multidecadal scales, we found coherent trends among series, and with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The long-term temperature signal for the Gulf of California shows a warming that occurred in the mid 20th century, approximately a decade before that in the California Current. This signal is coherent with fluctuations in the industrial fisheries catch records (sardine and shrimps). For the recent decades we found no significant sustained long-term trend in any of the time series of physical and ecological variables that we considered. Instead, variability seems to be fully dominated by the interaction of PDO and ENSO. We stress the urgent need for more modeling efforts and the establishment of interdisciplinary (physical and biological) observation platforms for the marine environment in the Gulf of California.

Towards understanding the unusual Indian monsoon in 2009

The Indian summer monsoon season of 2009 commenced with a massive deficit in all-India rainfall of 48% of the average rainfall in June. The all-India rainfall in July was close to the normal but that in August was deficit by 27%. In this paper, we first focus on June 2009, elucidating the special features and attempting to identify the factors that could have led to the large deficit in rainfall. In June 2009, the phase of the two important modes, viz., El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) was unfavourable. Also, the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) was warmer than in other years and much warmer than the Bay. In almost all the years, the opposite is true, i.e., the Bay is warmer than EEIO in June. It appears that this SST gradient gave an edge to the tropical convergence zone over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, in competition with the organized convection over the Bay. Thus, convection was not sustained for more than three or four days over the Bay and no northward propagations occurred. We suggest that the reversal of the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient between the Bay of Bengal and EEIO, played a critical role in the rainfall deficit over the Bay and hence the Indian region. We also suggest that suppression of convection over EEIO in association with the El Niño led to a positive phase of EQUINOO in July and hence revival of the monsoon despite the El Niño. It appears that the transition to a negative phase of EQUINOO in August and the associated large deficit in monsoon rainfall can also be attributed to the El Niño.

Instability of the Kuroshio in Luzon Strait: Effects of ridge topography and stratification

The spectral analyses of moored current velocities in the central Luzon Strait reveal northward (i.e., downstream of the Kuroshio) propagation of a frontal wave with a five-day period, with wave amplitude increasing northward. Estimated from both curve fitting and frequency domain Empirical Orthogonal Function methods, the characteristics of five-day variations have wave speeds ranging from 32 to 40 cm s−1, wavelengths ranging from 130 to 150 km, and e-folding time scales for growth ranging from 0.8 to 3 days. An analytical two-layer model used to explore linear stability characteristics indicates that bottom topography (two meridional ridges) is important for the Kuroshio stability characteristics in the Luzon Strait. In the two-layer model with the two ridges, the flow is stabilized for the long-wave mode but destabilized for the short-wave mode (due to increasing vertical shear in the horizontal velocity). The analytical model produces wavelengths and phase speeds for the most unstable mode which is similar to the observation, but the growth rate is underestimated. However, a spectral numerical model applied with a more realistic stratification and velocity structure does obtain faster growth rates comparable to the observations. Parameter sensitivity tests were conducted using the analytical model. The characteristics of the most unstable mode are most sensitive to the surface front location relative to the bottom topography but not sensitive to varying the density difference and thickness of the upper layer.

Vertical cloud structures of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability based on CloudSat observations and ERA-interim reanalysis

The boreal summer intraseasonal variability (BSISV), which is characterized by pronounced meridional propagation from the equatorial zone to the Indian Continent, exerts significant modulation of the active/break phases of the south Asian monsoon. This form of variability provides a primary source of subseasonal predictive skill of the Asian summer monsoon. Unfortunately, current general circulation models display large deficiencies in representing this variability. The new cloud observations made available by the CloudSat mission provide an unprecedented opportunity to advance our characterization of the BSISV. In this study, the vertical structures of cloud water content and cloud types associated with the BSISV over the Indian Ocean and subcontinent are analyzed based on CloudSat observations from 2006 to 2008. These cloud structures are also compared to their counterparts as derived from ERA-interim reanalysis. A marked vertical tilting structure in cloud water is illustrated during the northward propagation of the BSISV based on both datasets. Increased cloud liquid water content (LWC) tends to appear to the north of the rainfall maximum, while ice water content (IWC) in the upper troposphere slightly lags the convection. This northward shift of increased LWC, which is in accord with local enhanced moisture as previously documented, may play an important role in the northward propagation of the BSISV. The transition in cloud structures associated with BSISV convection is further demonstrated based on CloudSat, with shallow cumuli at the leading edge, followed by the deep convective clouds, and then upper anvil clouds. Some differences in cloud water structures between CloudSat and ERA-interim are also noted, particularly in the amplitudes of IWC and LWC fields.

Intraseasonal Variation of Winter Precipitation over the Western United States Simulated by 14 IPCC AR4 Coupled GCMs

Abstract This study evaluates the intraseasonal variation of winter precipitation over the western United States in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of each model’s twentieth-century climate simulation are analyzed. The focus is on the two dominant intraseasonal modes for the western U.S. precipitation: the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode. The results show that the models tend to overestimate the northern winter (November–April) seasonal mean precipitation over the western United States and Canada. The models also tend to produce overly strong intraseasonal variability in western U.S. wintertime precipitation, in spite of the overly weak tropical intraseasonal variability in most of the models. All models capture both the 40-day mode and the 22-day mode, usually with overly large variances. For the 40-day mode, models tend to reproduce its deep barotropic vertical structure and three-cell horizontal structure, but only 5 of the 14 models capture its northward propagation, and only 2 models simulate its teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation in the tropical Pacific. For the 22-day mode, 8 of the 14 models reproduce its coherent northward propagation, and 9 models capture its teleconnection with precipitation in the tropical Pacific.

Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon

In this paper, we suggest criteria for the identification of active and break events of the Indian summer monsoon on the basis of recently derived high resolution daily gridded rainfall dataset over India (1951–2007). Active and break events are defined as periods during the peak monsoon months of July and August, in which the normalized anomaly of the rainfall over a critical area, called the monsoon core zone exceeds 1 or is less than −1.0 respectively, provided the criterion is satisfied for at least three consecutive days. We elucidate the major features of these events. We consider very briefly the relationship of the intraseasonal fluctuations between these events and the interannual variation of the summer monsoon rainfall.We find that breaks tend to have a longer life-span than active spells. While, almost 80% of the active spells lasted 3–4 days, only 40% of the break spells were of such short duration. A small fraction (9%) of active spells and 32% of break spells lasted for a week or longer. While active events occurred almost every year, not a single break occurred in 26% of the years considered. On an average, there are 7 days of active and break events from July through August. There are no significant trends in either the days of active or break events. We have shown that there is a major difference between weak spells and long intense breaks. While weak spells are characterized by weak moist convective regimes, long intense break events have a heat trough type circulation which is similar to the circulation over the Indian subcontinent before the onset of the monsoon.The space-time evolution of the rainfall composite patterns suggests that the revival from breaks occurs primarily from northward propagations of the convective cloud zone. There are important differences between the spatial patterns of the active/break spells and those characteristic of interannual variation, particularly those associated with the link to ENSO. Hence, the interannual variation of the Indian monsoon cannot be considered as primarily arising from the interannual variation of intraseasonal variation. However, the signature over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean on intraseasonal time scales is similar to that on the interannual time scales.

Changes of atmospheric water vapor budget in the Pearl River basin and possible implications for hydrological cycle

In this study, we thoroughly analyzed abrupt behaviors, trends, and periodicity properties of water vapor flux and moisture budget entering and exiting the four edges of the Pearl River basin based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis dataset by using the continuous wavelet transform and the simple two-phase linear regression technique. Possible implications for hydrological cycle and water resource management of these changes are also discussed. The results indicate that: (1) the water vapor propagating through the four edges of the Pearl River basin is decreasing, and it is particularly true for the changes of the water vapor flux exiting from the north edge of the study river basin. The transition point from increase to decrease occurs in the early 1960s; (2) The wavelet transform spectra indicate that the monthly water vapor flux through the north edge decreases and this decrease is mainly reflected by intermittent distribution of the wavelet power spectra after early 1980s. The periodicity properties of the water vapor flux through the north edge imply that the northward propagation of water vapor flux decreases after the 1980s; (3) close relations between water vapor flux, precipitation and streamflow implies that the altered hydrological cycle in the Pearl River basin is mainly manifested by seasonal shifts of water vapor flux after early 1960s. One of the direct consequences of these changes of water vapor flux is the seasonal transition of wet and dry conditions across the Pearl River basin. Regional responses of hydrological cycle to climate variation/change could be different from one river basin to another. Hydrological responses of the Pearl River basin to the global warming are mainly demonstrated by seasonal shifts of precipitation changes: winter comes to be wetter and summer tends to be dryer. The finding of the seasonal transition of precipitation in the Pearl River basin is of great scientific and practical merits in basin scale water resource management in the Pearl River basin under the changing climate and global warming in particular.